Publication: Reducing Environmental Risks from Belt and Road Initiative Investments in Transportation Infrastructure
Loading...
Date
2019-01
ISSN
Published
2019-01
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Belt and Road Initiative, due to its diverse and extensive infrastructure investments, poses a wide range of environmental risks. Some projects have easily identifiable and measurable impacts, such as energy projects' greenhouse gas emissions. Others, such as transportation infrastructure, due to their vast geographic reach, generate more complex and potentially more extensive environmental risks. The proposed Belt and Road Initiative rail and road investments have stimulated concerns because of the history of significant negative environmental impacts from large-scale transportation projects across the globe. This paper studies environmental risks -- direct and indirect -- from Belt and Road Initiative transportation projects and the mitigation strategies and policies to address them. The paper concludes with a recommendation on how to take advantage of the scale of the Belt and Road Initiative to address these concerns in a way not typically available to stand-alone projects. In short, this scale motivates and permits early integrated development and conservation planning.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Losos, Elizabeth; Pfaff, Alexander; Olander, Lydia; Mason, Sara; Morgan, Seth. 2019. Reducing Environmental Risks from Belt and Road Initiative Investments in Transportation Infrastructure. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8718. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31186 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09)This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.Publication The Impact of Trade Promotion Organizations on Exports(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-13)This paper examines the impact of trade promotion organizations on exports during the COVID-19 pandemic using a World Bank survey. The results suggest that increased trade promotion organization budgets significantly boosted exports during downturns but had no effect during the recovery phase. Interestingly, e-commerce programs adopted by trade promotion organizations negatively affected exports during downturns as they diverted resources away from productive support, especially for sectors not intensive in online trade. These findings suggest that countercyclical trade promotion organizations budgets may enhance trade resilience during similar global shocks.Publication The Future of Poverty(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15)Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Climate Vulnerability and Job Accessibility(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-11)Many developing cities are facing rapid population growth and extreme climate events. This paper examines the link between job accessibility and climate vulnerability, using data from Antananarivo, Madagascar, which frequently experiences flooding. As in other countries, the analysis finds that men’s commutes are longer than women’s, who tend to walk to work or use public transport. Even after controlling for observables and the potential endogeneity bias associated with commute time, the findings show that climate vulnerability negatively impacts wages, as people avoid commuting long to work due to anticipated potential climate risks. Building climate resilience into urban transport is therefore essential. As predicted by theory, the evidence also shows that the value of commuting is positive, and walking is disadvantageous. Motorized commuting yields higher returns, which could lead to overuse of private cars and taxis, posing decarbonization challenges.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Brazil - Improving the Appraisal Framework for Road Transport Infrastructure Investments : Elements for Consideration(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-03)The main purpose of an appraisal framework for transport infrastructure projects and programs is to provide an objective and transparent basis for decision-makers to ascertain the feasibility and levels of priority of major transport projects and policies. An appraisal framework also serves a second, more general, purpose: to contribute to upgrading internal management processes aimed at improving the quality of expenditure. An adequate appraisal framework needs to: 1) strike a balance between an objective economic evaluation and a broader multi-criteria evaluation; and 2) provide clear methodologies and norms to guide appraisers, and ensure comparability among project appraisals, when time comes to prioritize the projects. To ensure that an appraisal framework can deliver on the two above-mentioned purposes, it is important to raise public awareness as to the basic principles and objectives of appraisals, and to structure public sector capacity to undertake or lead, as well as review appraisals, to ensure that they are reliable and of adequate quality. Appraisal frameworks are at different stages of development in different countries, with the most advanced frameworks. Brazil has made a lot of progress in that area since the end of the 1990s. Today, the legal framework is conducive to the systematic undertaking of appraisals. While progress has been made on structuring a series of norms and guidelines to allow for the implementation of the framework's directives, the normative body, overall, is still relatively vague and incomplete.Publication Pakistan - Strategic Environmental, Poverty and Social Assessment of Trade and Transport Sector Reforms(Washington, DC, 2012-12)The Government of Pakistan's (GoP's) 2011 framework for economic growth seeks to place Pakistan on a sustained high economic growth path of 7 percent per year through measures to reduce the cost of doing business, improve the investment climate, and strengthen institutions. Trade and transport reforms are central to achieve the Framework's goal. The transport sector constitutes 10 percent of Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and provides 6 percent of the employment in the country. The sector plays an important role in linking other sectors in the economy, contributes to both domestic and international trade, and helps facilitate the spatial transformation occurring in Pakistan. However, present patterns in transport and trade logistics generate inefficiencies that are costing Pakistan's economy roughly 4-6 percent of GDP per year, which is a major constraint to the aspirations set out in the Framework. This analytical work on Strategic Environmental, Poverty, and Social Assessment (SEPSA) of trade and transport sector reforms examines poverty, social and environmental aspects associated with reforms that would increase the freight transport sector's productivity to meet the framework goals. it focused on the following areas: (i) SEPSA's methodology and aims; (ii) description of key challenges in Pakistan's freight transport sectors, including the road, trucking, railway, port, and aviation sectors, as well as trade and transport interventions and reforms proposed by the GoP and other stakeholders; (iii) identification of stakeholders, particularly the most vulnerable groups that could be affected by reforms aimed at increasing freight transport productivity, and analyzing the priority poverty issues associated with freight transport in Pakistan; (iv) identification jointly with stakeholders of priority social and environmental issues associated with freight transport, and analyzing such issues; (iv) examination of potential freight transportation social and environmental policy options for enhancing positive effects or reducing adverse effects associated with increases in freight transport productivity; and (v) identification of options to strengthen governance and the institutional capacity of agencies to manage the environmental, social and poverty priorities associated with Pakistan's freight transportation.Publication Urban Mass Transport Infrastructure in Medium and Large Cities in Developing Countries(Washington, DC, 2012)Developed at the request of the Mexican G20 Presidency for consideration by the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors at the G20 Leaders' Summit in Mexico, and jointly prepared with the Asian Development Bank, this policy paper positioned green transport in the context of cities development. Urban transport determines the shape of a city and its ecological footprint. Many cities in low and middle income countries are at a crossroads. Policy decisions taken now, while car use is still relatively low and cities retain a relatively transit friendly, compact urban form, will affect how people will live in their cities for many decades into the future. A new paradigm of urban transport can be part of the solution to reversing the deteriorating situation in some cities of developing countries, and supporting others to embark on a sustainable, low carbon, green growth path: developing a city for people rather than cars, and including public and mass transport as a major component of the modal structure. Implementing such a new paradigm can be truly transformational. This joint World Bank and Asian Development Bank paper lays out six aspects, which are most difficult to align, yet, are critical to ensure the sustainability of urban transport systems, visionary leadership, integrated strategy for land use and urban transport, coordination among agencies, domestic capacity, adequate cost recovery, and private participation in the operation and construction of urban transport systems. The paper proposes a set of new initiatives for G20 leaders' consideration, including the development of an umbrella toolkit to guide policy makers in charge of urban planning to make transport decisions best suited to their local contexts.Publication A Policy Framework for Green Transportation in Georgia : Achieving Reforms and Building Infrastructure for Sustainability(Washington, DC, 2012-06)The Government of Georgia is considering options for reducing fossil fuel imports in favor of introducing large scale use of domestic energy sources for public and private transportation. However, this must be considered within the overall context of green transportation-which will generate benefits well beyond the substitution of fossil fuels with domestic energy sources. The concept of green transportation has emerged in response to growing concerns about climate change; typically this refers to a transportation system characterized by low carbon emissions, i.e., Green House Gasses (GHG). In the context of Georgia, two other important development issues in green transportation in addition to GHG emissions are fossil fuel consumption and air pollution. For the purpose of this study, therefore, green transportation in Georgia refers to reducing the intensity of fossil fuel use and increasing reliance on indigenous energy sources (mainly hydropower), as well as minimizing adverse impacts on the global and local environment through reduced emissions of GHG and local pollutants. Greening transportation will create 'co-benefits': reducing fossil fuel use will help improve the balance of trade and energy security; and employing measures to avoid unnecessary trips and using fewer vehicles for the same number of trips (i.e., public transportation) would reduce traffic congestion on the road network, particularly in urban areas. By greening transportation, Georgia could reduce the total import bill for petroleum products, thereby improving the balance of trade and energy security.Publication Demand Side Instruments to Reduce Road Transportation Externalities in the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-06)Economically efficient prices for the passenger transportation system in the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area would account for broader societal costs of traffic congestion and accidents, and local and global pollution. A $2.20 per gallon gasoline tax (2006 US$) would be economically efficient, compared with the current subsidy of $1.20 per gallon. Removal of the existing subsidy alone would achieve about three-quarters of the net benefits from subsidy elimination and the tax. Per-mile tolls could target congestion and accident externalities more efficiently than fuel taxes, although they are not practical at present. A combination of $0.80 per gallon gasoline tax to address pollution (versus $2.20 without tolls), and $0.12 and $0.19 tolls per vehicle mile on automobiles and microbuses, respectively, to address traffic congestion and accident externalities (versus $0.22 without fuel taxes) would be most efficient. Current public bus and rail subsidies are relatively close to efficient levels in the absence of such policies; however, if automobile and microbus externalities were fully addressed through more efficient pricing, optimal subsides to public transit would be smaller than current levels.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Government Matters III : Governance Indicators for 1996-2002(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-08)The authors present estimates of six dimensions of governance covering 199 countries and territories for four time periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. These indicators are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 25 separate data sources constructed by 18 different organizations. The authors assign these individual measures of governance to categories capturing key dimensions of governance and use an unobserved components model to construct six aggregate governance indicators in each of the four periods. They present the point estimates of the dimensions of governance as well as the margins of errors for each country for the four periods. The governance indicators reported here are an update and expansion of previous research work on indicators initiated in 1998 (Kaufmann, Kraay, and Zoido-Lobat 1999a,b and 2002). The authors also address various methodological issues, including the interpretation and use of the data given the estimated margins of errors.Publication Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2003)Most wars are now civil wars. Even though international wars attract enormous global attention, they have become infrequent and brief. Civil wars usually attract less attention, but they have become increasingly common and typically go on for years. This report argues that civil war is now an important issue for development. War retards development, but conversely, development retards war. This double causation gives rise to virtuous and vicious circles. Where development succeeds, countries become progressively safer from violent conflict, making subsequent development easier. Where development fails, countries are at high risk of becoming caught in a conflict trap in which war wrecks the economy and increases the risk of further war. The global incidence of civil war is high because the international community has done little to avert it. Inertia is rooted in two beliefs: that we can safely 'let them fight it out among themselves' and that 'nothing can be done' because civil war is driven by ancestral ethnic and religious hatreds. The purpose of this report is to challenge these beliefs.Publication Design Thinking for Social Innovation(2010-07)Designers have traditionally focused on enchancing the look and functionality of products.Publication Governance Matters VIII : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996–2008(2009-06-01)This paper reports on the 2009 update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2008: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. These aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 33 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. They find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org.Publication Governance Matters IV : Governance Indicators for 1996-2004(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-06)The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.