Publication: Vietnam Macro Monitoring
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Date
2022-12
ISSN
Published
2022-12
Author(s)
World Bank
Abstract
This brief discusses the economic
development of Vietnam for the month of December 2022.The
two drivers of economic growth, exports and domestic demand,
are moderating. Softer external demand has weighed on
Vietnam’s exports. The post-covid consumption rebound also
appears to be fading and tighter domestic financial
conditions and rising inflation could affect domestic demand
going forward. Reflecting weaker external demand, growth of
industrial production moderated to 5.3 percent (y/y) in
November, the lowest rate since February 2022. CPI inflation
reached 4.4 percent (y/y) in November, compared to 4.3
percent recorded a month earlier, with food and housing
being two major contributors. Credit growth fell from 16.5
percent (y/y) in October to 15.0 percent (y/y) in November
as domestic financial conditions tightened after the State
Bank of Vietnam raised key policy interest rates in
September and October. The Vietnamese dong gained slightly
in value in November 2022 although the dong’s appreciation
is one of the smallest compared to major currencies and
currencies of its neighbors. As of end November, the
national budget registered a 12.1 billion surplus (about 3
percent of GDP). With global financing conditions expected
to remain tight and weakening external demand, Vietnamese
monetary authorities could consider allowing further
flexibility in the exchange rate to absorb changes in the
external environment. Fiscal and monetary policy
coordination will be critical to ensure price stability in
light of accelerating domestic core inflation. A more
prudent and prioritized expenditure strategy could focus on
ensuring investments in human capital and resilient and
green infrastructure to help bolster economic potential and resilience.
Citation
“World Bank. 2022. Vietnam Macro Monitoring. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38424 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”