Publication: Philippines Quarterly Update, January 2011: Robust Growth, Stubborn Poverty
Loading...
Published
2011-01
ISSN
Date
2017-06-16
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Following a slowdown during the global financial crisis in 2009, the Philippine economy roared back in 2010, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates not seen in over 30 years. On the demand side, private consumption, investment, and net exports were the main drivers of growth. On the supply side, industry and services propelled the economy. The external position continued to strengthen, thanks to a consistently strong current account and, more recently, by improvements in the capital and financial account. Dollar remittances grew progressively faster throughout 2010. Labor market conditions improved, but unemployment remains high, contributing to strong OFW deployment. Growth is expected to normalize around its potential output in 2011 as the technical and temporary factors that generated record growth in 2010 disappear. Among its first actions in office, the Aquino government carried out a comprehensive assessment of fiscal risks and published a Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS). Experience reveals that FRSs can yield important benefits, including lower and better, managed risks, improved policies, and lower financing costs. Historically, the Philippines have been exposed to considerable fiscal risks, in part reflecting important weaknesses in public financial management and resulting in large fiscal costs. While fiscal risks have abated, they still remain sizeable in the Philippines. To improve its risk management, the government is pursuing a program of institutional capacity building.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2011. Philippines Quarterly Update, January 2011: Robust Growth, Stubborn Poverty. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27243 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication China Economic Update, June 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-07-03)Chinas economic growth continues to moderate, in 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 7.4 percent, within the governments indicative growth target of about 7.5 percent for the year, but sharply slower than the 10 percent annual growth rate china averaged for three consecutive decades. An orderly correction in real estate - reflecting policy efforts to reduce supply mismatches and tighten nonbank credit - continues to weigh on economic activity. Ongoing adjustments in real estate, a buildup of excess capacity, and decelerating export growth are affecting industrial activity. In contrast growth in services remained robust as composition of growth continues to improve.Publication Taking Stock, July 2013(Hanoi, 2013-07-10)The global economy appears to be transitioning toward a period of more stable albeit moderate pace of growth. Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which slowed in mid-2012, is recovering and a modest acceleration in quarterly GDP is expected during the course of 2013. In the developing world growth remains solid, but there are some signs of easing. More than four years after the financial crisis started, global industrial output is only 5.3 percent higher than its pre-crisis peak. While the global financial market conditions continue to improve, eventual phasing out of quantitative easing in advanced economies is beginning to worry investors. The improvement in financial conditions can be seen in lower yields on long-term debt, higher stock market returns and near-record flow of gross capital to developing countries. Vietnam's economy is experiencing its longest spell of slow growth since the onset of economic reforms in the late-1980s. Real GDP grew by 5 percent in 2012, the lowest level since 1998. The economy extended its slow growth into the first half of 2013, registering a growth rate of 4.9 percent in the first quarter and 5 percent in the second quarter. This is the first time that Vietnam has experienced two consecutive years of sub-5 percent growth in the first half of the year since it started publishing quarterly GDP. In fact what had distinguished Vietnam from other countries is its ability to recover rapidly after an economic shock-be it during the East Asian crisis in 1999 or the global financial crisis in 2009. However, Vietnam has found it harder to take timely and decisive actions to jumpstart its economy from the current growth slowdown. Vietnam is the only large developing country in the East Asia and Pacific region other than China whose post-crisis growth rate has been lower than its pre-crisis level.Publication India Development Update, October 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-10)Growth rebounded significantly due to strong industrial recovery aided by growth in investment and exports. Capital flows are back, signaling growing investor confidence, as inflation has moderated from double digits, exchange rate has stabilized, and financial sector stress has plateaued. Monetary policy continuity has been maintained and there has been some progress on fiscal consolidation. With the economy still below potential and reform momentum picking up, growth is expected to strengthen over the medium-term. Inflation is expected to decline with monetary policy switching to inflation targeting while the current account deficit is expected to widen somewhat as import demand and capital inflows rise. Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue through stronger revenue mobilization. Downside domestic risks can be offset through accelerated structural reforms.Publication Philippines Quarterly Update, December 2011(World Bank, Pasig City, Philippines, 2011-12)After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011. Slower third quarter (Q3) growth of 3.2 percent was the result of significant contractions in exports and public investment. The contraction in exports largely reflected weaker demand in advanced economies while public investments continued to shrink in part because of measures to improve accountability of public spending. On the production side, industrial and agricultural activities were sluggish, leaving the services sector to buoy growth. To improve growth outcome in the remainder of the year, the government announced a PHP 72 billion (about 0.7 percent of GDP) disbursement acceleration plan to ensure that budgeted items are spent by year end. After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011, bringing year to date growth below the government's revised target of 4.5 to 5.5 percent for 2011. Q3 growth of 3.2 percent was driven by private consumption and inventory build-up, which grew by 7.1 and 147.7 percent respectively. The country's slower expansion places it behind its neighbors with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Singapore growing above 6 percent, Malaysia at 5.8 percent, and Thailand, which was devastated by massive flooding in recent months, at 3.5 percent.Publication Taking Stock, December 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-12)The global economy is showing signs of recovery, but at an uneven pace; global growth is expected to rise modestly to 2.6 percent in 2014, and an average 3.3 percent in 2015-17. The gradual strengthening of activity in the Euro Area and especially the US will boost demand for exports from developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP), helping the region sustain its growth performance. There are early signs of firming up of economic recovery in Vietnam. GDP growth picked up to a relatively brisk 6.2 percent (y-o-y) in the third quarter of 2014, contributing to an overall growth rate of 5.6 percent for the first nine months of the year. Credit growth continues to come in below target, hampering the State Bank of Vietnam's efforts to carry out credit expansion to support economic growth. The Government has taken some important measures in 2014 to improve business conditions, which are expected to bear fruit from 2015 onward. The Government issued Resolution 19 (March 18, 2014), which prioritizes shortening the time for processing and completion of administrative procedures, reducing administrative costs, and strengthening transparency and accountability of state administrative agencies. The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) provides a comprehensive framework to identify financial system vulnerabilities and develop appropriate policy responses. Recognizing its importance, in July 2012 the Government of Vietnam invited the World Bank and the IMF to initiate an FSAP for Vietnam. In recent years the Vietnamese economy had shown signs of corporate and financial distress, and slowdown in GDP growth. In response to this, the government announced a comprehensive reform program designed to address the problems faced by the financial and corporate sectors. The FSAP provides a broad set of policy recommendations that can be used to operationalize the SEDP and the banking restructuring program. The recommendations include recapitalization plans, the workout of NPLs, regulatory and other reforms, and the temporary extension of the safety net.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.