Publication: Tajikistan Risk and Resilience Assessment
Loading...
Date
2017-04
ISSN
Published
2017-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Tajikistan was ill-equipped for independence in 1991, and slipped almost immediately into violence. The civil war ended in 1997 with a peace accord that, thanks to a power sharing agreement, was able for a few years to ensure a degree of peaceful political competition. In recent years, political instability and the potential for violence in Tajikistan has grown with pervasive governance challenges, include elite capture of political and economic power, high-level corruption, and the closing of political space. Political and security challenges exacerbate, and are exacerbated by, economic, social, and cross-border risks. Indeed, most global indices that examine fragility and conflict place Tajikistan in a category of elevated risk. This risk and resilience assessment (RRA) is intended to provide a comprehensive understanding of the fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) stresses facing Tajikistan and the potential role of the Bank in helping to address these risks. Report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two of the provides an overview of Tajikistan’s geography, demography, and economy and discusses the historical context that has led to Tajikistan’s current challenges. Chapter three provides an overview of the priority risks - political and security, economic, inclusion and regionalism, and cross-border and global that increase Tajikistan’s vulnerability to violence and instability. Chapter four discusses the specific triggers or scenarios that can destabilize the status quo or lead to widespread unrest. Chapter five identifies sources of resilience the World Bank Group (WBG) may wish to consider and build upon. Chapter six concludes with suggested recommendations to the WB on the way forward.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2017. Tajikistan Risk and Resilience Assessment. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32548 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication IDA18 Retrospective(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-09)The landmark 18th Replenishment of the International Development Association (IDA18) featured significant innovation, substantial delivery, and flexibility to respond to urgent country needs, including COVID-19. Paradigm shifts in IDA18 signaled a significant change for IDA. Dedicated Windows address targeted development needs to complement country allocations.Publication Country Partnership Framework for the Independent State of Papua New Guinea for the Period FY19-FY23(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04-18)Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a richly diverse society undergoing intense economic and social transformation. With more than eight hundred different languages spoken among a population of over eight million people, divided into more than one thousand ethnic clans, PNG is the most heterogenous country in the world. The World Bank Group’s (WBG’s) country partnership framework (CPF) for the Independent State of Papua New Guinea for FY19–FY23 is anchored in the government’s Vision 2050, the PNG development strategic plan 2010–2030, and the third medium-term development plan for 2018–2022 (MTDPIII). To support the government in achieving the twin goals, the CPF envisages supporting the government of PNG in pursuing sustainable and inclusive growth and building resilience to shocks across three strategic focus areas: (i) improving macro and fiscal resilience; (ii) ensuring more effective and inclusive service delivery, particularly in underserved areas; and (iii) enabling private sector development and inclusive growth in non-resource sectors. Addressing governance and institutional challenges will be a cross-cutting theme to the program. Close collaboration between the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) will be emphasized, with a particular focus on strengthening the business environment and job creation in PNG.Publication Inclusion Matters in Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020)Africa has garnered global attention for its many achievements and its dynamism, and at the same time, it has taken the spotlight for its substantial challenges. As in other parts of the world, positive developments have been uneven in Africa. This report places the notion of social inclusion in an analysis of Africa’s achievements and challenges. Its interdisciplinary approach uses evidence to bring empirical weight to issues that are often debated through advocacy and contestation. It also contributes to the priority areas of a new regional strategy for the Africa region of the World Bank by focusing on women’s empowerment, digital technology, fragility, and climate change, among others. The report asks, in the wake of the advances Africa has made over the years, who is excluded, from what, how, and why. It then highlights what has been attempted in the quest of African countries for social inclusion. One of the main contributions of this report is that while grounded in the experience of African countries, it shows that Africa’s challenges in social inclusion are not unique or exceptional. It highlights examples of the remarkable innovations that abound in Africa and of the policy and programmatic movement towards social inclusion. It surmises that social inclusion must be based on a clear social contract that recognizes both the costs and benefits of policies and interventions towards social inclusion.Publication Gaza Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment, June 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)On May 20, 2021, after 11 days of the worst conflict since 2014, Israel and militants in Gaza agreed to a cessation of hostilities. Casualties were recorded on both sides, including more than 260 dead in Gaza according to the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), along with considerable destruction of residential and commercial buildings. While in Israel, 9 Israelis and 3 foreign workers were killed according to the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In Gaza, the conflict damaged various core physical and digital infrastructure assets, particularly buildings, hospitals and health centers, water and sanitation facilities, and transport, energy and communications networks. Exacerbated by previous trauma, this renewed round of violence having a particularly serious impact on children’s mental health as they are more susceptible to the effects of high levels of stress. Beyond the human tragedy and the subsequent immediate humanitarian relief that was channeled to Gaza, the economic impact of these 11 days of conflict has severely weakened an economy already reduced to a fraction of its potential. Gaza is one of the most densely populated areas in the world, with around 2.1 million individuals living in a total area of 365 square kilometers. For nearly 15 years, the movement of people and goods into and out of Gaza has been under restrictions imposed by the Government of Israel (GoI) due to security concerns. This isolation, in addition to multiple episodes of conflict and a damaging internal political divide, has created a severe humanitarian situation in Gaza that was exacerbated by the recent hostilities.Publication Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity in Contexts Affected by Fragility, Conflict, and Violence(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-03)In recent years, the world has seen a sharp rise in violence based on sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) in countries affected by fragility, conflict and violence (FCV). Today, consensual same-sex sexual acts and other aspects of SOGI remain criminalized in many of the countries experiencing the most pressing humanitarian crises, and those with the largest numbers of refugees and internally displaced people. In light of this, this discussion paper analyzes some of the development and protection challenges that sexual and gender minorities cope with in FCV-affected environments. The paper devotes special attention to the intersections between SOGI-based exclusion and access to basic services; to the challenges experienced by sexual and gender minorities in conditions of forced displacement; and to sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) as a frequently used weapon against these vulnerable groups. This paper contributes to the evidence base related to the most vulnerable in FCV-affected environments, and knowledge on SOGI-based exclusion vis-à-vis the development-humanitarian-peace nexus.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.