Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
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Publication
The Climate Change and Conflict Nexus in West Africa: A New Approach for Operationally Relevant Vulnerability Assessments
(Washington DC, 2023-03-21)This report advances usable knowledge on how climate change and conflict interact in the region. Its findings contribute to a growing body of research examining the links between climate change and conflict outcomes. Its objective is twofold: first, to strengthen the evidence base on the relationship between climate change and socio-institutional fragility, violence, and conflict in West Africa; and second, to develop operationally relevant vulnerability data to enable clustering of locations with similar sources of vulnerability (in terms of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) to climate and conflict risks. In doing so, the report breaks substantial new ground. It explicitly represents the spatial distribution of climate-related conflict vulnerability and its association with a range of biophysical, social, and economic factors. It identifies the associations between different climate drivers and conflict outcomes and develops a predictive model based on machine learning to assess the extent to which climate-related variables can predict conflict outcomes. It also uses a set of in-depth case studies to examine the potential mechanisms that may mediate the climate change and conflict relationship. Finally, the report highlights why and how specific locations are vulnerable to climate and conflict risks, rather than mapping levels of climate change and conflict vulnerability across space as most existing vulnerability indices typically do. In each of these ways, the report provides useful information to design, evaluate, and assess the operational effectiveness of projects that address climate and conflict-related vulnerability. -
Publication
Digital Public Goods for Disaster Risk Reduction in a Changing Climate
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-16)The growth of the disaster and climate risk analysis has largely taken place through the development of proprietary models and data only accessible to a restricted group of users. However, core digital assets have received a push early this century to open access so that larger populations can benefit from their use as public goods. This includes: (i) data used to produce evidence on past disasters or climatic conditions; (ii) models used by scientists to run future climate risk scenarios; (iii) technology and standards for disaster risk modeling; and (iv) crowdsourced maps created by volunteers and used by governments to prepare for and respond to crises. This briefing note aims to promote and explore ways that digital public goods can support disaster risk reduction. It starts by providing a series of definitions and historical context, before delving into the prevailing trends and opportunities that promote the use of open resources to support disaster risk reduction. The target audience for this note includes governments, international organizations, and other institutions that might want to play a role in advancing digital public goods. While the note focuses on disaster risk reduction, preventing new and reducing existing disaster risk, it also addresses the broader aspects of resilience and climate change adaption and might be of interest to practitioners or decision makers in those fields. Finally, this briefing note is a result of a collaboration between the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) with inputs from 40 people gathered through a virtual workshop in November 2021. While short and concise, this paper aims to inspire more discussions and actions at the nexus of digital technologies, disaster risk management, and international development. -
Publication
Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: Mw 7.8 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake – Assessment of the Impact on Syria (Results as of February 20, 2023)
(Washington DC, 2023-03-14)Following the magnitude (Mw) 7.8 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake on February 6, 2023 and the Mw 6.3 earthquake on February 20, 2023, the World Bank carried out a remote, desk-based assessment of the physical damages in Syria using the Global RApid post-disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) methodology. The objective of the assessment is to develop a model-based estimate of the direct physical damages to residential buildings (houses) and non-residential buildings caused by the event, and to evaluate the spatial distribution of damages. In this report, direct physical damage is quantified using the gross capital stock, which is the replacement cost of an asset newly rebuilt based on current unit costs and construction practice, and although it does include fixed and mobile industry capital, it does not take into account transport equipment, or technological changes etc. Reconstruction costs are expected to be proportionately higher for non-residential than residential buildings, due to the possibility of upgrades and build back better practices (because a large share of its capital stock and production technologies are outdated). Estimates of direct damages, presented in this report, do not include costs associated with humanitarian and emergency response, or the losses associated with economic flows (for example, business interruption). As of February 20, 2023, the confirmed death toll across Türkiye and Syria surpassed 47,000 deaths, with 6,599 fatalities and 14,500 injuries in Syria. In northwest Syria, this includes 4,525 reported deaths and 8,424 reported injuries, with many still trapped under the rubble. More details on the fragility and crisis dynamics and how these amplified the earthquakes’ impacts are discussed in the Annex B of this GRADE report. -
Publication
Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes - Türkiye Report
(Washington, DC, 2023-02-06)On February 6, 2023, two very large earthquakes of magnitude (Mw) 7.8 and 7.5 occurred nine hours apart on different fault lines in the southern region of Türkiye and northern Syria. These are referred to as the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. In Türkiye, which is the focus of this report, these earthquakes have resulted in widespread damage across 11 provinces, where around 14.01 million (16.5 percent) of Türkiye’s population live, including Adana, Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Elazığ, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye, and Şanlıurfa. As of February 19, 2023, more than 41,020 fatalities have been reported, 108,068 people injured, and more than 1,200,000 people displaced. The objective of this report is to provide an early and preliminary estimate of the direct damage costs caused by these earthquakes, which in turn will inform the response of the World Bank Group and its partners and support planning for recovery and reconstruction. In this report, direct physical damage is quantified using the gross capital stock, which is the replacement cost of an asset newly rebuilt based on current unit costs and construction practice, and although it does include fixed and mobile industry capital, it does not take into account transport equipment, or technological changes, etc. This report also provides information on the nature of the earthquake events, fixed capital damage costs, and the spatial distribution of damages, which can support recovery and reconstruction planning. -
Publication
Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment, August 2022
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-08)The Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, which began February 24, 2022, has caused significant civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure and has taken a severe human, social, and economic toll. As a result of the war, which still continues after more than six months, dwellings and public infrastructure have been demolished or damaged, public services and economic activity have been impeded, and significant numbers of Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes. This Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) is part of an ongoing effort, undertaken jointly by the government of Ukraine, the World Bank, and the European Commission and supported by other partners, to take stock of Ukraine’s damage and losses from the war - but just as importantly to assess the scale of economic and social needs for Ukraine’s survival during the war and its prospering afterward. -
Publication
Multihazard Multisectoral Risk Communication Framework for Pakistan, 2021
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Pakistan remains susceptible to emergencies caused by a variety of natural hazards. There are two fundamental reasons for Pakistan’s high vulnerability. The first reason is increasingly high exposure due to rapid changes in the region such as unprecedented population growth, urbanization, deforestation, climate change, and rising human–animal proximity among others. The other reason for Pakistan’s high vulnerability, which is also critical to this particular endeavor, is its insufficient capacity for emergency response. Without disregarding the fact that the status of Pakistan’s capacity for risk communication has evolved since the JEE’s report in 2016 (especially considering the unprecedented focus on risk communication efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic), it is crucial to address the gaps identified to ensure Pakistan is prepared for the next public health mergency. This document provides the way forward for addressing those gaps. The document has two main components. The first main component of the document is an in-depth situation. analysis of the existing risk communication mechanism. The second is a framework for i) ensuring preparedness through institutionalization, and ii) activating campaigns during emergencies. -
Publication
Learning from Tropical Cyclone Seroja: Building Disaster and Climate Resilience in Timor-Leste
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-21)Tropical Cyclone (TC) Seroja impacted Timor-Leste with heavy torrential rains over a 24-hour period on April 4, 2021, with an average intensity of over 14 millimeters per hour and a peak intensity of over 70 millimeters per hour. The heavy precipitation and the country’s natural topography led to flash floods, landslides, and liquefaction, causing significant damage. The disaster affected all 13 municipalities of Timor-Leste, caused at least 44 fatalities, damaged critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, water supply infrastructure, schools, and health facilities, and impacted rural areas and agricultural assets. This report is part of the World Bank’s response to the Government’s request for support in assessing damages as well as longer-term implications for disaster risk management. It will serve as inputs to a more detailed Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) under development and could inform the methodology of future similar remote-based assessments. It is also a contribution to the policy dialogue with the Governmentand its partners about how to plan and invest more effectively to mitigate disasters in the future. -
Publication
360° Resilience: A Guide to Prepare the Caribbean for a New Generation of Shocks
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-27)Caribbean countries, a set of mostly Small Island Developing States (SIDS), have a history of dealing with large shocks. The region is threatened by both economic and natural hazards. Nations have specialized in tourism and commodity exports, disproportionately exposing them to global economic cycles through changes in tourism demand and commodity prices. They are also located in a region that is highly exposed to a range of natural hazards, from volcanic eruptions to earthquakes and hurricanes, which damage their infrastructure stock, reduce tourism demand, and destroy agricultural production. Hazards have often caused severe damage to economies and livelihoods in the region. This report reviews existing assessments of past losses from natural and economic shocks in the Caribbean, looking at impacts on physical capital, private sector activity (especially tourism and agriculture), economic growth, poverty, and well-being. It concludes that, despite the damage to physical capital experienced by countries due to natural hazards (especially in housing and transport infrastructure), the impacts on growth are short-lived, possibly because many mechanisms are in place to help economies bounce back rapidly. However, natural hazards have a high impact on poverty and human capital and threaten the sustainability of economic growth. -
Publication
Climate Risk Country Profile: Azerbaijan
(World Bank, Washington, DC and Asian Development Bank, Manila, 2021-09-24)This document aims to succinctly summarize the climate risks faced by Azerbaijan. This includes rapid onset and long-term changes in key climate parameters, as well as impacts of these changes on communities, livelihoods, and economies, many of which are already underway. This is a high-level synthesis of existing research and analyses, focusing on the geographic domain of Azerbaijan, therefore potentially excluding some international influences and localized impacts. The core data presented is sourced from the database sitting behind the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), incorporating climate projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This document is primarily meant for WBG and ADB staff to inform their climate actions and to direct them to many useful sources of secondary data and research. -
Publication
Climate Risk Country Profile: Georgia
(World Bank, Washington, DC and Asian Development Bank, Manila, 2021-09-24)Georgia is located in the South Caucasus region, sharing land borders with Russia to the north, Turkey to the southwest, Armenia to the south, and Azerbaijan to the east. Over the past two decades, Georgia has experienced significant economic change, urbanization, and displaced populations (due to conflict and disasters triggered by natural hazards). This document aims to summarize the climate risks faced by Georgia. This includes short and long-term changes in key climate parameters, as well as impacts of these changes on communities, livelihoods, and economies, many of which are already underway. This is a high-level synthesis of existing research and analyses, focusing on the geographic domain of Georgia, as such this profile potentially overlooks some localized impacts and transboundary flow dynamics. The core data presented is sourced from the database sitting behind the World Bank Group’s climate change knowledge portal (CCKP). This document also aims to direct the reader to many useful sources of secondary data and research.