Publication: Afghanistan Development Update, October 2015
Loading...
Date
2015-10
ISSN
Published
2015-10
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
More frequent incidences of violence in Afghanistan, as well as delays in the elections process and cabinet formation, continued to fuel uncertainty and affected investor confidence in 2014 and the first half of 2015. Economic growth slowed to 1.3 percent in 2014, down from 3.7 percent a year earlier. Unlike in previous years, agriculture did not contribute much to growth in 2014. Production levels were high for a third year in a row but did not supersede the strong output in 2013. Growth was mainly driven by services and a slight expansion of industries where an increase in construction activities outweighed lower production in manufacturing. Private investment activities showed strong signs of slowdown in 2014, evidenced by a drop of nearly 50 percent in new firm registrations since 2012. The National Unity Government has embarked on an ambitious reform agenda to revitalize the economy, tackle corruption, and improve investment climate. However, it will take time for these reforms to have an impact, and it is yet unclear how much they will mitigate the high risks stemming from the fragile security environment. Growing trends in security and pension and wage spending over the medium term require immediate attention. Afghanistan faces significant financing shortages for both civilian and security spending. Therefore, securing continued high levels of donor financing over the coming years is of critical importance for fiscal stability in the country. The fragile security environment and financing constraints, compounded by weak governance capacity, pose serious challenges to service delivery in Afghanistan. Any setback in reform implementation would further slowdown the pace of human capital accumulation in Afghanistan and reduce future prospects of growth and poverty reduction.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2015. Afghanistan Development Update, October 2015. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22931 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Pakistan Development Update, April 2016(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-04)South Asia emerged as the fastest growing region in the world in 2015, posting GDP growth of 7 percent. Weak oil and commodity prices, slowing capital flows and shrinking global trade contributed towards a deceleration of growth in most of the world's economies. South Asia - as a net importer of oil - was an anomaly, growing significantly on the back of higher private consumption and public investment. Higher remittances and reserve buffers throughout the region offset the fall in exports caused by the drop in global demand. The region is set to maintain real GDP growth above 7 percent over the next few years. However, the tailwinds are now fading - capital flows have declined and remittances are starting to feel the reality of low oil prices. Pakistan, while not growing as quickly as its neighbors, has continued its steady growth recovery in H1FY16. Strong growth in consumption, rising foreign exchange reserves, fast-growing workers' remittances and a lower import bill compensated for a significant fall in exports. Low oil prices generated a significant boost, driving a 9.1 percent fall in the import bill and reducing inflation significantly, in turn creating scope to reduce the policy rate. Private sector consumption, propelled by higher remittances and a loosened monetary policy, is expected to account for over half of FY16 GDP growth.Publication Debt Management Performance Assessment : The Gambia(Washington, DC, 2010-04)During January 11 to 20, 2010, a World Bank team undertook a Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) mission to Gambia. This tool provides a methodology for assessing government debt management performance through a comprehensive set of dimensions spanning the full range of DeM functions. The first time the tool was applied in Gambia was in 2007, when a pilot study was carried out, and this was a follow-up mission. The DeMPA methodology has evolved since the report made in 2007 and therefore it is not possible to carry out a strict comparison of the two DeMPA reports in terms of individual indicators as the detailed dimensions that make up an indicator are no longer aggregated; instead, each dimension is given a specific score. It is clear however that Gambia's debt management has progressed substantially in some dimensions during recent years although there are still remaining issues that would benefit from reform and institutional capacity-building. The mission notes that given that several reforms are currently being implemented, it is to be expected that future DeMPA evaluations will show stronger scores. At this moment there is institutional capacity-building in the area of the Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) and cash management; the design of procedures manuals for Directorate of Debt Management (DDM), and the design of a draft bill on public debt management which would provide a more strategic, objectives-based legal orientation to debt management.Publication Debt Management Performance Assessment : Kazakhstan(Washington, DC, 2011-05)A World Bank mission visited Kazakhstan from July 15-23, 2010, to undertake a comprehensive assessment of debt management operations using the Debt Management Performance Assessment tool (DeMPA). The DeMPA report provides an overview of strengths and weaknesses in government debt management in Kazakhstan, as evaluated at end-July, 2010. The scores demonstrate that areas of strength clearly outnumber areas where policies and practices fall short of minimum standards for effective debt management. Areas of strength include the legal framework, governance, and operational risk management, coordination with fiscal and monetary policies, as well as debt recording and reporting. Such strengths are impressive, taking into account the relatively low debt level and modest recourse to both domestic and external borrowing. However, many areas displaying relatively low scores would benefit from attention and reform. This need is most pressing in the context of developing a medium-term debt management strategy, which would involve outlining the preferred composition of debt based on cost-risk analyses, and would provide guidance not only for the government s borrowing but also for market development.Publication Crisis Preparedness and Debt Management in Low Income Countries : Strengthening Institutions and Policy Frameworks(2010-07-01)The magnitude of the public liabilities incurred as a result of the unprecedented government action in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and the consequences of exiting from the projected high debt scenario, have become a major source of concern about a future sovereign debt crisis. As Low-Income Countries (LICs) face unique challenges in debt management (DeM) due to their more limited financing sources and higher capacity constraints, their ability to successfully manage their public debt burdens effectively through a crisis of this magnitude is far from assured. Therefore, the challenges of the last two years will require a re-evaluation of existing DeM strategies in LICs, focusing on the identification of institutional weaknesses and the assessment and mitigation of potential risk. It is in this context that this paper examines the application of two global public goods in LICs: the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) and the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) tools. The results of the application of these tools from 2007-2009 provide valuable information to policymakers and other stakeholders on the development of sound public DeM practices and analytical capacity, with the goal of strengthening the public balance sheet and reducing vulnerability to financial crises.Publication Debt Management Performance Assessment : Albania(Washington, DC, 2011-06)From November 8 to 17, 2010, a World Bank team undertook a Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) mission to Tirana, Albania. The mission's objective was to prepare a comprehensive assessment of government debt management functions by applying the DeMPA methodology. This report presents the results of the assessment, based on the December 2009 version of the DeMPA tool. The assessment reveals that Albania meets the requirements for the A score in eleven dimensions assessed the B score in five dimensions, the C score in twelve dimensions, and the D score in five dimensions. Of more than 50 countries assessed by the World Bank under the DeMPA program so far, Albania stands out as one of the few which has sound debt management practices in the largest number of areas as defined by the DeMPA methodology. Albanian economy is highly dependent on remittances. Sectors that rely on remittances construction, wholesale and retail, and other services together account for over 60 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and has been the backbone of the country's strong growth. Large capital inflows (remittances, official assistance, and some foreign direct investment) have resulted in a steady appreciation of the country's currency. The DeMPA focuses on central government debt management activities and closely-related functions, such as the issuance of loan guarantees, on-lending, cash flow forecasting, and cash balance management. Thus, the DeMPA does not assess the ability to manage the wider public debt portfolio, including implicit contingent liabilities.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.