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From Recovery to Rebalancing: China’s Economy in 2021

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-14T16:05:01Z
dc.date.available2021-01-14T16:05:01Z
dc.date.issued2020-12
dc.description.abstractFollowing a collapse in the first quarter of 2020, economic activity in China has normalized faster than expected, aided by an effective pandemic-control strategy, strong policy support, and resilient exports. While swift, the recovery has been uneven, with domestic demand recovering more slowly than production and consumption more slowly than investment. Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 2 percent this year before accelerating to 7.9 percent in 2021, as consumer spending and business investment continue to catch up, along with improving corporate profits, labor market conditions, and incomes. The growth outlook is predicated on the assumption that well-targeted containment efforts supported by the gradual rollout of effective COVID-19 vaccines starting in early 2021 will continue to keep new infection rates low and prevent the resurgence of large-scale outbreaks. Economic rebalancing toward services, innovation and consumption driven growth has important spatial implications. This issue is at the heart of the exploratory analysis of the focus chapter in this report. While regional disparities in output, labor productivity, and income have narrowed since the mid-2000s, convergence was driven by a surge in investment in lagging regions. This has led to growing financial imbalances, mounting debt, and diminishing returns that constrained further investment-driven catch-up growth. Moreover, as China seeks to rebalance its economy from investment to a more innovation- and services-driven growth model, it will need to embrace the growth potential of its most developed and innovative metropolitan areas and city clusters, shifting the growth pole back to the coastal regions. Against this backdrop, policies to foster market integration and reduce spatial frictions in factor markets would enable a more efficient spatial allocation of labor and capital, harnessing the benefits of agglomeration and urbanization. Such a shift will inevitably create tensions with other policy objectives, notably the aim to reduce inequality. Therefore, it will need to be accompanied by fiscal policies to ensure a more equitable delivery of public services and investment in human capital to mitigate the very real consequences of resultant spatial disparities on people’s lives and opportunities.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/297421610599411896/From-Recovery-to-Rebalancing-China-s-Economy-in-2021
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/35014
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/35014
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesChina Economic Update;December 2020
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectREGIONAL INTEGRATION
dc.subjectREGIONAL DISPARITY
dc.subjectCONVERGENCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectRECOVERY
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL IMBALANCES
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectFISCAL TRENDS
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectRISKS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectPANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.titleFrom Recovery to Rebalancingen
dc.title.subtitleChina’s Economy in 2021en
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleFrom Recovery to Rebalancing
okr.date.disclosure2021-01-13
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-07T10:37:17.087795Z
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/297421610599411896/From-Recovery-to-Rebalancing-China-s-Economy-in-2021
okr.guid563611610599878290
okr.guid297421610599411896
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b0881a7b61_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum32744682
okr.identifier.reportAUS0002026
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/297421610599411896/pdf/From-Recovery-to-Rebalancing-China-s-Economy-in-2021.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.countryChina
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Employment and Unemployment
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.topicPublic Sector Development::Public Financial Management
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