Publication: Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: Mw 7.8 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake – Assessment of the Impact on Syria (Results as of February 20, 2023)
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2023-03-14
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2023-03-14
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Following the magnitude (Mw) 7.8 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake on February 6, 2023 and the Mw 6.3 earthquake on February 20, 2023, the World Bank carried out a remote, desk-based assessment of the physical damages in Syria using the Global RApid post-disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) methodology. The objective of the assessment is to develop a model-based estimate of the direct physical damages to residential buildings (houses) and non-residential buildings caused by the event, and to evaluate the spatial distribution of damages. In this report, direct physical damage is quantified using the gross capital stock, which is the replacement cost of an asset newly rebuilt based on current unit costs and construction practice, and although it does include fixed and mobile industry capital, it does not take into account transport equipment, or technological changes etc. Reconstruction costs are expected to be proportionately higher for non-residential than residential buildings, due to the possibility of upgrades and build back better practices (because a large share of its capital stock and production technologies are outdated). Estimates of direct damages, presented in this report, do not include costs associated with humanitarian and emergency response, or the losses associated with economic flows (for example, business interruption). As of February 20, 2023, the confirmed death toll across Türkiye and Syria surpassed 47,000 deaths, with 6,599 fatalities and 14,500 injuries in Syria. In northwest Syria, this includes 4,525 reported deaths and 8,424 reported injuries, with many still trapped under the rubble. More details on the fragility and crisis dynamics and how these amplified the earthquakes’ impacts are discussed in the Annex B of this GRADE report.
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“World Bank; Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. 2023. Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: Mw 7.8 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake – Assessment of the Impact on Syria (Results as of February 20, 2023). © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39529 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report(Washington, DC, 2023-02-06)On February 6, 2023, two very large earthquakes of magnitude (Mw) 7.8 and 7.5 occurred nine hours apart on different fault lines in the southern region of Türkiye and northern Syria. These are referred to as the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. In Türkiye, which is the focus of this report, these earthquakes have resulted in widespread damage across 11 provinces, where around 14.01 million (16.5 percent) of Türkiye’s population live, including Adana, Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Elazığ, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye, and Şanlıurfa. As of February 19, 2023, more than 41,020 fatalities have been reported, 108,068 people injured, and more than 1,200,000 people displaced. The objective of this report is to provide an early and preliminary estimate of the direct damage costs caused by these earthquakes, which in turn will inform the response of the World Bank Group and its partners and support planning for recovery and reconstruction. In this report, direct physical damage is quantified using the gross capital stock, which is the replacement cost of an asset newly rebuilt based on current unit costs and construction practice, and although it does include fixed and mobile industry capital, it does not take into account transport equipment, or technological changes, etc. This report also provides information on the nature of the earthquake events, fixed capital damage costs, and the spatial distribution of damages, which can support recovery and reconstruction planning.Publication Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-13)The objectives of this report include providing an estimate of the direct economic damage to physical assets caused by the December 17, 2024, earthquake in Vanuatu, providing information on the sectoral and spatial distribution of damage, and, in so doing, supporting the development of a roadmap for recovery and reconstruction. 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Sustained winds of 65 km/h were recorded, and rainfall was intense, causing devastating flooding. This Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) report provides a synopsis of the estimated direct physical damage in Sri Lanka due to the passage of Cyclone Ditwah. The report is based on a rapid and remote post-disaster damage assessment which follows the established GRADE methodology (World Bank, 2018a) and is prepared within a short timeframe to inform early decision-making. It is not intended as a substitute for the detailed, sectoral, on-the-ground analysis which may be conducted in the weeks and months after a disaster. The objective of this report is to provide an estimate of the direct physical damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah in November 2025 in Sri Lanka. The assessment provides information on the spatial and sectoral distribution of damage to help calibrate other damage estimates and support the development of a roadmap for recovery and reconstruction.Publication Global RApid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-02)Following the Herat province (Western Afghanistan) earthquake sequence of October 7 to 15, 2023, the World Bank carried out a remote desk-based assessment of the physical damages using the Global RApid post-disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) methodology. The objective of the assessment is to develop a model-based estimate of the direct physical (economic) damages to residential buildings (houses), non-residential buildings (e.g., education, health, worship, commercial, industrial assets) and infrastructure (e.g., transport, power, water, telecommunications), and to evaluate the spatial distribution of damages in order to support the development of a roadmap for recovery and reconstruction. This report summarizes the key findings of the assessment.
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