Publication: Estimates of COVID-19 Impacts on Learning and Earning in Indonesia: How to Turn the Tide
Loading...
Date
2020-08
ISSN
Published
2020-08
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The authors use the World Bank’s recently developed country tool for simulating Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) impacts on learning and schooling outcomes and data from the forthcoming Indonesia education service delivery indicator survey to simulate and contextualize the potential impact of COVID-19 school closures on learning outcomes, proficiency levels, enrollments, and expected earnings for Indonesian students in primary and secondary school. The authors estimate that Indonesian children have already lost 11 points on the program for international student assessment (PISA) reading scale and United States (U.S.) 249 dollars in future annual individual earnings due to the four-month closure period from March 24 to the end of July 2020. The authors provide estimates for six- and eight-month closure scenarios, showing that these losses are expected to increase in the coming months as schools gradually re-open (and possibly re-close). To turn the tide of these human capital losses, districts, provinces, and the central ministries should prepare for both improved face-to-face instruction, as well as improved quality of distance education, in order to recapture lost learning and improve overall system quality and resilience to possible future shocks.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Masood, Eema; Afkar, Rythia; Yarrow, Noah. 2020. Estimates of COVID-19 Impacts on Learning and Earning in Indonesia: How to Turn the Tide. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34378 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Rewrite the Future(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-09)The policy note presents an updated estimate of learning loss due to COVID-19 (coronavirus) -related school closures in Indonesia, taking into account the Government of Indonesia~^!!^s mitigating measures. Our revised estimates show that school closures precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic could result in a total loss of between 0.9 and 1.2 years of learning adjusted schooling and on average between 25 and 35 points on student’s PISA reading scores. The extent of learning loss is determined more by the effectiveness of distance learning than it is by the duration of school closure in the time period investigated. We identify a reduction of between 408 US dollars and 578 US dollars per student in future annual earnings equivalent to a present value loss in lifetime earnings for all students of between 253 and 359 billion US dollars, or 24 to 34 percent of 2020 GDP. To accelerate learning and to recover some of these losses in the short-term, schools and teachers can assess what each of their students has been able to learn while schools were closed and use differentiated plans to support each child to accelerate their learning. In the longer term, the Government can support the increased resilience of education service delivery to protect against future shocks from pandemics, climate change and other threats.Publication Measuring the Quality of MoRA's Education Services(World Bank, Jakarta, 2020-11)We visited 350 primary schools and collected data from 1,838 teachers and 3,368 Grade 4 students to assess the quality of education service delivery in a nationally representative sample of schools of the Ministry of Religious Affairs and a smaller sample of schools of the Ministry of Education and Culture. We found that students were on average 1.5 years behind the learning level expected for 4th grade, representing a learning crisis. These low levels of learning were associated with high levels of teacher absence, low levels of availability of textbooks, and low levels of teacher subject knowledge and pedagogy skills but high levels of student satisfaction. We find higher levels of learning for students who have ever attended early childhood education, those who have eaten breakfast on the day of the assessment, as well as for female students. We offer some recommendations for addressing these challenges, drawing from schools with higher levels of student learning in the sample.Publication A Simulation of COVID-19 School Closure Impact on Student Learning in Bangladesh(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01)This Note presents results from a series of simulations that aim to capture the impacts that school closures in Bangladesh might have on the learning levels, enrollment and future earnings of children and students using a methodological tool developed by the Education Global Practice of the World Bank . We find that overall loss in learning for every child enrolled in school even in the most optimistic scenario is expected to be substantial and the economic implications of the learning losses are huge. Available data also indicates that remote learning requires to be made more effective. It is hoped that the insights from this note will be useful for the government, non-government, private sector and civil society engaged in education service delivery as they are attempting to forge effective partnerships during and after the crisis. There is an urgent need to substantially reduce additional dropouts and absenteeism through stipends and safe school opening and communication campaigns.Publication Impact of COVID-19 on Learning(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc upon global learning, with many countries facing severe school disruptions and closures. An emerging literature based on household survey data points to the pandemic as having exacerbated inequalities in education and learning in countries from Italy to Denmark, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This brief offers new analysis on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on learning outcomes for six sub-Saharan African countries. The authors analyze detailed household level data from several rounds of panel phone surveys collected by the World Bank in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, and Uganda. These surveys were first implemented between late April and early June 2020, after school closures due to the pandemic. In each survey round, the surveyed households were asked a set of core questions on topics such as knowledge of COVID and mitigation measures, access to educational activities during school closures, dynamics of employment, household income and livelihood, income loss and coping strategies, and received assistance.OPublication Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)School closures due to COVID-19 have left more than a billion students out of school. This paper presents the results of simulations considering three, five and seven months of school closure and different levels of mitigation effectiveness resulting in optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic global scenarios. Using data on 157 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of schooling and learning will fall. COVID-19 could result in a loss of between 0.3 and 0.9 years of schooling adjusted for quality, bringing down the effective years of basic schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7.9 years to between 7.0 and 7.6 years. Close to 7 million students from primary up to secondary education could drop out due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Students from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction of $355, $872, or $1,408 in yearly earnings. In present value terms, this amounts to between $6,472 and $25,680 dollars in lost earnings over a typical student's lifetime. Exclusion and inequality will likely be exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups, like girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities, are more adversely affected by the school closures. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could generate learning losses that have a present value of $10 trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make in the basic education of this cohort of students. The world could thus face a substantial setback in achieving the goal of halving the percentage of learning poor and be unable to meet the goal by 2030 unless drastic remedial action is taken.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10-17)The World Bank Group has two overarching goals: End extreme poverty by 2030 and promote shared prosperity by boosting the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the population in each economy. As this year’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity report documents, the world continues to make progress toward these goals. In 2015, approximately one-tenth of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, and the incomes of the bottom 40 percent rose in 77 percent of economies studied. But success cannot be taken for granted. Poverty remains high in Sub- Saharan Africa, as well as in fragile and conflict-affected states. At the same time, most of the world’s poor now live in middle-income countries, which tend to have higher national poverty lines. This year’s report tracks poverty comparisons at two higher poverty thresholds—$3.20 and $5.50 per day—which are typical of standards in lower- and upper-middle-income countries. In addition, the report introduces a societal poverty line based on each economy’s median income or consumption. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018: Piecing Together the Poverty Puzzle also recognizes that poverty is not only about income and consumption—and it introduces a multidimensional poverty measure that adds other factors, such as access to education, electricity, drinking water, and sanitation. It also explores how inequality within households could affect the global profile of the poor. All these additional pieces enrich our understanding of the poverty puzzle, bringing us closer to solving it. For more information, please visit worldbank.org/PSPPublication Doing Business 2020(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020)Doing Business 2020 is the 17th in a series of annual studies investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. It provides quantitative indicators covering 12 areas of the business environment in 190 economies. The goal of the Doing Business series is to provide objective data for use by governments in designing sound business regulatory policies and to encourage research on the important dimensions of the regulatory environment for firms.Publication Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-10-07)Previous Poverty and Shared Prosperity Reports have conveyed the difficult message that the world is not on track to meet the global goal of reducing extreme poverty to 3 percent by 2030. This edition brings the unwelcome news that COVID-19, along with conflict and climate change, has not merely slowed global poverty reduction but reversed it for first time in over twenty years. With COVID-19 predicted to push up to 100 million additional people into extreme poverty in 2020, trends in global poverty rates will be set back at least three years over the next decade. Today, 40 percent of the global poor live in fragile or conflict-affected situations, a share that could reach two-thirds by 2030. Multiple effects of climate change could drive an estimated 65 to 129 million people into poverty in the same period. “Reversing the reversal” will require responding effectively to COVID-19, conflict, and climate change while not losing focus on the challenges that most poor people continue to face most of the time. Though these are distinctive types of challenges, there is much to be learned from the initial response to COVID-19 that has broader implications for development policy and practice, just as decades of addressing more familiar development challenges yield insights that can inform responses to today’s unfamiliar but daunting ones. Solving novel problems requires rapid learning, open cooperation, and strategic coordination by everyone: from political leaders and scientists to practitioners and citizens.Publication Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2016(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-02)Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2016 is the first of an annual flagship report that will inform a global audience comprising development practitioners, policy makers, researchers, advocates, and citizens in general with the latest and most accurate estimates on trends in global poverty and shared prosperity. This edition will also document trends in inequality and identify recent country experiences that have been successful in reducing inequalities, provide key lessons from those experiences, and synthesize the rigorous evidence on public policies that can shift inequality in a way that bolsters poverty reduction and shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. Specifically, the report will address the following questions: • What is the latest evidence on the levels and evolution of extreme poverty and shared prosperity? • Which countries and regions have been more successful in terms of progress toward the twin goals and which are lagging behind? • What does the global context of lower economic growth mean for achieving the twin goals? • How can inequality reduction contribute to achieving the twin goals? • What does the evidence show concerning global and between- and within-country inequality trends? • Which interventions and countries have used the most innovative approaches to achieving the twin goals through reductions in inequality? The report will make four main contributions. First, it will present the most recent numbers on poverty, shared prosperity, and inequality. Second, it will stress the importance of inequality reduction in ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity by 2030 in a context of weaker growth. Third, it will highlight the diversity of within-country inequality reduction experiences and will synthesize experiences of successful countries and policies, addressing the roots of inequality without compromising economic growth. In doing so, the report will shatter some myths and sharpen our knowledge of what works in reducing inequalities. Finally, it will also advocate for the need to expand and improve data collection—for example, data availability, comparability, and quality—and rigorous evidence on inequality impacts in order to deliver high-quality poverty and shared prosperity monitoring.Publication The African Continental Free Trade Area(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-07-27)The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement will create the largest free trade area in the world, measured by the number of countries participating. The pact will connect 1.3 billion people across 55 countries with a combined GDP valued at $3.4 trillion. It has the potential to lift 30 million people out of extreme poverty by 2035. But achieving its full potential will depend on putting in place significant policy reforms and trade facilitation measures. The scope of the agreement is considerable. It will reduce tariffs among member countries and cover policy areas, such as trade facilitation and services, as well as regulatory measures, such as sanitary standards and technical barriers to trade. It will complement existing subregional economic communities and trade agreements by offering a continent-wide regulatory framework and by regulating policy areas—such as investment and intellectual property rights protection—that have not been covered in most subregional agreements. The African Continental Free Trade Area: Economic and Distributional Effects quantifies the long-term implications of the agreement for growth, trade, poverty reduction, and employment. Its analysis goes beyond that in previous studies that have largely focused on tariff and nontariff barriers in goods—by including the effects of services and trade facilitation measures, as well as the distributional impacts on poverty, employment, and wages of female and male workers. It is designed to guide policy makers as they develop and implement the extensive range of reforms needed to realize the substantial rewards that the agreement offers. The analysis shows that full implementation of AfCFTA could boost income by 7 percent, or nearly $450 billion, in 2014 prices and market exchange rates. The agreement would also significantly expand African trade—particularly intraregional trade in manufacturing. In addition, it would increase employment opportunities and wages for unskilled workers and help close the wage gap between men and women.