Publication:
Fish to 2030: The Role and Opportunity for Aquaculture

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (317.69 KB)
2,002 downloads
Date
2015-08-27
ISSN
1365-7305
Published
2015-08-27
Editor(s)
Abstract
Seafood sector can contribute to the global food supply in an important way, and provide an important source of animal protein. Based on observed regional trends in seafood production and consumption and using a global, partial-equilibrium, multi-market model, this study investigates what the global seafood market may look like in 2030. The model projects that the total fish supply will increase from 154 million tons in 2011 to 186 million tons in 2030, with aquaculture entirely responsible for the increase. The fastest aquaculture growth is expected for tilapia and shrimp, while the largest expansion is expected in India, Latin America and Caribbean and Southeast Asia. Fast-growing seafood demand in China and elsewhere represents a critical opportunity for global fisheries and aquaculture to improve their management and achieve sustainable seafood economy.
Link to Data Set
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Citations

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Fish to 2030 : Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture
    (Washington, DC, 2013-12) World Bank
    This report analyzes global prospects for fisheries and aquaculture. The World Bank Group (WBG) Agriculture Action Plan 2013-15 summarizes critical challenges facing the global food and agriculture sector. An ever-increasing global population necessitates adequate food and nutrition for the growing population through increased production and reduced waste. Production increase must occur in a context where resources necessary for food production, such as land and water, are even scarcer in a more crowded world, and thus the sector needs to be far more efficient in utilizing productive resources. The important issues addressed herein are: 1) health of global capture fisheries; 2) the role of aquaculture in filling the global fish supply - demand gap and potentially reducing the pressure on capture fisheries; and 3) implications of changes in the global fish markets on fish consumption, especially in China and Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Publication
    Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-04) Valenzuela, Ernesto; Anderson, Kym
    The authors estimate the impact of global merchandise trade distortions and services regulations on agricultural value added in various countries. Using the latest versions of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and the GTAP-AGR model of the global economy, their results suggest real net farm incomes would rise in developing countries with a move to free trade, thereby alleviating rural poverty. This occurs despite a terms of trade deterioration for developing countries that are net food importers or that enjoy preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries. The authors also show, for several large developing countries, the contribution of their own versus other countries' trade policies.
  • Publication
    Towards a Vision for Agricultural Innovation in Chile in 2030
    (World Bank, 2011-05-31) World Bank
    This paper aims to develop a vision statement for the agricultural sector that may then guide the future investments in Chile's agricultural innovation system, A joint and shared perspective on how the sector might look and what role agricultural innovation should play in getting there is a prerequisite for any effective strategy. But developing such a vision is not only a function of what the country wants: it also depends on the context in which Chile's agricultural sector will find itself. This paper therefore reports on a participatory process to explore the many uncertainties that surround Chile's agriculture and to derive possible implications and answers. This will then lead to a vision for the sector that should be realistic both in terms of Chile's agricultural ambitions and its surrounding uncertainties. Based on the vision, a series of topics that needs to be explored in the agricultural innovation system if Chile wishes to make its vision come true will be identified and briefly described. The current paper is the second one in a series of three that were agreed between the Government of Chile and the World Bank to support the development of a long term agricultural innovation strategy. The first paper reviewed the functioning of the three main public technological institutes and made recommendations on how their performance can be improved. This second study explores the future of Chile's agriculture towards 2030, using a scenario planning methodology and developing a vision for the future of its agricultural innovation system. The third study will then outline a concrete action plan to make progress on the main topics that need to be addressed in order to achieve the vision.
  • Publication
    Understanding the Benefits of Regional Integration to Trade : The Application of a Gravity Model to the Case of Central America
    (2010-12-01) Gordillo, Darwin Marcelo; Stokenberga, Aiga; Schwartz, Jordan
    The paper identifies the impact of physical barriers to trade within Central America through the use of an augmented and partially constrained Gravity Model of Trade. Adjusting the Euclidian distance factor for Central America by real average transport times, the model quantifies the impact of poor connectivity and border frictions on the region's internal trade as well as its trade with external partners, such as the United States and Europe. In addition, the authors benchmark Central America's trade coefficients against those of a physically integrated region by running a parallel Gravity Model for the 15 core countries of the European Union. This allows for the estimation of potential intra-regional and external trade levels if Central America were to reduce border frictions and time of travel between countries and thus benefit from both the adjacency of each country's neighbors and the gravitational pull of the region's economies. The analysis is conducted for all of Central America's trade and is also disaggregated for three groups of products -- processed fruits and vegetables; steel and steel products; and grains -- by both volume and value. This differentiation tests the consistency of the results while providing insight into the differentiation in trading patterns and potential for these containerized, break-bulk, and bulk products. The results of the model include a potential doubling in intraregional exports if Central America could achieve the adjacency and time-distance factors of a truly integrated region. In addition, the region's combined exports to the European Union and the United States are projected to increase by more than a third compared with the current level, assuming European Union-level adjacency performance. Even more external trade benefits would accrue by reducing the economic penalty imposed by overland transport and border crossing inefficiencies.
  • Publication
    Global Food Price Inflation : Implications for South Asia, Policy Reactions, and Future Challenges
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008-12) Ahmed, Sadiq
    The surge in global commodity prices of the past few years has presented a tremendous development challenge for South Asian countries. The large loss of income from the terms of trade shock has worsened macroeconomic balances, fueled rapid inflation, and hurt growth. Although commodity prices have come down recently, the benefits are being clouded by the emergence of a severe global financial crisis. The adverse consequences of the food price hike for the poor are large; the global financial crisis could further worsen the situation due to falling economic opportunities and government revenues. South Asian countries need to accelerate reforms to avoid facing a serious downturn in economic activity, investment, exports, and income. Governments in South Asia have responded by stabilizing domestic food prices through a number of short-term measures, tightened monetary policy to reduce inflation, and increased spending on a range of safety net programs for the poor. Some of the policies employed, such as export bans, are not consistent with the long-term welfare of the country or the region. Safety net interventions need to be made consistent with a longer-term poverty reduction strategy and fiscal sustainability. Most importantly, policy attention now needs to shift toward efforts to increase farm productivity, improve rural infrastructure, and lower the vulnerability of the poor.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Measuring Financial Inclusion : The Global Findex Database
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04) Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Klapper, Leora
    This paper provides the first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, a new set of indicators that measure how adults in 148 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The data show that 50 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a formal financial institution, though account penetration varies widely across regions, income groups and individual characteristics. In addition, 22 percent of adults report having saved at a formal financial institution in the past 12 months, and 9 percent report having taken out a new loan from a bank, credit union or microfinance institution in the past year. Although half of adults around the world remain unbanked, at least 35 percent of them report barriers to account use that might be addressed by public policy. Among the most commonly reported barriers are high cost, physical distance, and lack of proper documentation, though there are significant differences across regions and individual characteristics.
  • Publication
    Governance Matters VIII : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996–2008
    (2009-06-01) Kaufmann, Daniel; Kraay, Aart; Mastruzzi, Massimo
    This paper reports on the 2009 update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2008: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. These aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 33 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. They find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org.
  • Publication
    Government Matters III : Governance Indicators for 1996-2002
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-08) Kaufmann, Daniel; Kraay, Aart; Mastruzzi, Massimo
    The authors present estimates of six dimensions of governance covering 199 countries and territories for four time periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. These indicators are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 25 separate data sources constructed by 18 different organizations. The authors assign these individual measures of governance to categories capturing key dimensions of governance and use an unobserved components model to construct six aggregate governance indicators in each of the four periods. They present the point estimates of the dimensions of governance as well as the margins of errors for each country for the four periods. The governance indicators reported here are an update and expansion of previous research work on indicators initiated in 1998 (Kaufmann, Kraay, and Zoido-Lobat 1999a,b and 2002). The authors also address various methodological issues, including the interpretation and use of the data given the estimated margins of errors.
  • Publication
    Governance Matters IV : Governance Indicators for 1996-2004
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-06) Kaufmann, Daniel; Kraay, Aart; Mastruzzi, Massimo
    The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.
  • Publication
    Design Thinking for Social Innovation
    (2010-07) Brown, Tim; Wyatt, Jocelyn
    Designers have traditionally focused on enchancing the look and functionality of products.