Publication: International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price : The Role of Liquidity and Capital Controls
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Published
2009
ISSN
10429573
Date
2012-03-30
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This paper takes advantage of the fact that some stocks trade both in domestic and international markets to characterize the degree of international financial integration. The paper argues that the cross-market premium (the ratio between the domestic and the international market price of cross-listed stocks) provides a valuable measure of international financial integration and the effectiveness of capital controls. Using autoregressive (AR) models to estimate convergence speeds and non-linear threshold autoregressive (TAR) models to identify non-arbitrage bands, the paper shows that price deviations across markets are rapidly arbitraged away and bands are narrow, particularly so for liquid stocks. The paper also shows that regulations on cross-border capital flows effectively segment domestic markets. As expected, the effects of both types of capital controls are asymmetric but in the opposite direction: controls on outflows induce positive premia, while controls on inflows generate negative premia. Both vary with the intensity of capital controls.
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Publication International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-04)The authors argue that the cross-market premium (the ratio between the domestic and the international market price of cross-listed stocks) provides a valuable measure of international financial integration, reflecting accurately the factors that segment markets and inhibit price arbitrage. Applying to equity markets recent methodological developments in the purchasing power parity literature, they show that nonlinear Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models properly capture the behavior of the cross market premium. The estimates reveal the presence of narrow non-arbitrage bands and indicate that price differences outside these bands are rapidly arbitraged away, much faster than what has been documented for good markets. Moreover, the authors find that financial integration increases with market liquidity. Capital controls, when binding, contribute to segment financial markets by widening the non-arbitrage bands and making price disparities more persistent. Crisis episodes are associated with higher volatility, rather than by more persistent deviations from the law of one price.Publication Crises, Capital Controls, and Financial Integration(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-11)This paper analyzes the effects of capital controls and crises on international financial integration, using data on stocks from emerging economies that trade in domestic and international markets. The cross-market premium (the ratio between the domestic and international market price of cross-listed stocks) provides a valuable measure of how capital controls and crises affect integration. The paper shows that, contrary to the common perception that capital controls can be easily evaded, they do affect the cross-market premium. Controls on capital inflows put downward pressure on domestic markets relative to international ones, generating a negative premium. The opposite happens with controls on capital outflows. This signals the inability of market participants to engage in perfect arbitrage, due to the segmentation of domestic markets from international ones induced by capital controls. Crises affect financial integration by generating more volatility in the cross-market premium and putting more downward pressure on domestic prices.Publication Emerging Market Liquidity and Crises(2008)Whereas conventional wisdom argues that markets shut down during crises, with sellers struggling to find buyers, we find that markets continue to operate during financial turmoil, even in narrow and volatile emerging economies. Simple event studies indicate that both trading volume and trading costs increase in crisis times. Prices change more with each dollar transacted (pushing the Amihud illiquidity measure up) and bid-ask spreads widen. More generally, econometric estimates show that large price downturns, typical of crises, are associated with higher trading activity and increased trading costs, with trading activity declining only later as crises progress. Thus, although trading activity tends to be negatively related to trading costs during tranquil times (and across securities), this relation appears to break down during crises. These results are consistent with the analytical literature on portfolio rebalancing by heterogeneous agents in times of crises.Publication Emerging Market Liquidity and Crises(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-12)Whereas conventional wisdom argues that markets shut down during crises, with sellers struggling to find buyers, we find that markets continue to operate during financial turmoil, even in narrow and volatile emerging economies. Simple event studies indicate that both trading volume and trading costs increase in crisis times. Prices change more with each dollar transacted (pushing the Amihud illiquidity measure up) and bid-ask spreads widen. More generally, econometric estimates show that large price downturns, typical of crises, are associated with higher trading activity and increased trading costs, with trading activity declining only later as crises progress. Thus, while trading activity tends to be negatively related to trading costs during tranquil times (and across securities), this relation appears to break down during crises. These results are consistent with the analytical literature on portfolio rebalancing by heterogeneous agents in times of crises.Publication The Price of Inconvertible Deposits : The Stock Market Boom during the Argentine Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-10)The Argentine crisis witnessed, among other things, a deposit run, the suspension of deposit convertibility, and a "boom" in the stock market. The authors argue that this boom reflects the cost that depositors were willing to incur to get their money out of the banking system, in light of the impending risks. This boom was generalized to all stocks, and more pronounced in liquid stocks. Furthermore, the boom was a symptom that deposits were effectively restricted, and that investors were not able to circumvent capital controls.
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