Schmukler, Sergio L.

Person:
Schmukler, Sergio L.

Development Research Group

Fields of Specialization

Emerging market finance, Financial development, Financial integration, Financial Sector, Private Sector Development

ORCID

0000-0003-2842-5919

External Links

Author on Google
Bio page

Departments

Development Research Group

Last updated: October 25, 2024

Biography

Sergio Schmukler is the Research Manager of Macroeconomics and Growth in the World Bank's Development Research Group. His research area is international finance and international financial markets and institutions. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley in 1997, when he joined the World Bank's Young Economist and Young Professionals Programs. He currently teaches financial development at Columbia University. He is a member of the Money and Finance Research (Mo.Fi.R) group and Treasurer of LACEA, the Latin America and Caribbean Economic Association (since 2004). In recent years, he has visited the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Central Bank of Chile, CREI at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, the Dutch Central Bank, and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. He has taught at the Department of Economics of University of Maryland (1999-2003), worked at the International Monetary Fund Research Department (2004-2005), was Associate Editor of the Journal of Development Economics (2001-2004), and has participated in several other editorial boards. In earlier years, he worked at the Argentine Central Bank, the U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and the Inter-American Development Bank Research Department.

Full item page

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 103

Crisis Credit, Employment Protection, Indebtedness, and Risk
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25) Huneeus, Federico; Kaboski, Joseph P.; Larrain, Mauricio; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Vera, Mario
This paper studies how credit guarantee and employment protection programs interact in assisting firms during crises times. The paper analyzes how these government programs influence credit allocation, indebtedness, and risk at both the micro and macro levels. The programs provide different incentives for firms. The low interest rate encourages riskier firms to demand government-backed credit, while banks tend to reject those credit applications. The credit demand outweighs this screening supply response, expanding micro-level indebtedness across the extensive and intensive margins among riskier firms. The uptake of the employment program is not associated with risk, as firms internalize the opportunity cost of reduced operations when sending workers home to qualify for assistance. The employment program mitigates the indebtedness expansion of the credit program by supporting firms and enabling banks to screen firms better. Macroeconomic risk of the credit program would increase by a third without the availability of the employment program.
The Internationalization of China’s Equity Markets
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-07-18) Cortina, Juan J.; Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Xiao, Jasmine
The internationalization of China’s equity markets started in the early 2000s but accelerated after 2012, when Chinese firms’ shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen gradually became available to international investors. This paper documents the effects of the post-2012 internationalization events by comparing the evolution of equity financing and investment activities for (i) domestic listed firms relative to firms that already had access to international investors and (ii) domestic listed firms that were directly connected to international markets relative to those that were not. The paper shows significant increases in financial and investment activities for domestic listed firms and connected firms, with sizable aggregate effects. The evidence also suggests that the rise in firms’ equity issuances was primarily and initially financed by domestic investors. Foreign ownership of Chinese firms increased once the locally issued shares became part of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index in 2018.
Capital Market Financing and Firm Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07) Levine, Ross; Didier, Tatiana; Llovet Montanes, Ruth; Schmukler, Sergio L.
This paper studies whether there is a connection between finance and growth at the firm level. It employs a new dataset of 150,165 equity and bond issuances around the world, matched with income and balance sheet data for 62,653 listed firms in 65 countries over 1990-2016. Three main patterns emerge from the analyses. First, firms that choose to issue in capital markets use the funds raised to grow by enhancing their productive capabilities, increasing their tangible and intangible capital and the number of employees. Growth accelerates as firms raise funds. Second, the faster growth is more pronounced among firms that are more likely to face tighter financing constraints, namely, small, young, and high-R&D firms. Third, capital market issuances are associated with faster growth among firms located in countries with more developed capital markets relative to banks. Capital markets are also comparatively effective at allowing financially constrained firms to raise capital.
The Distribution of Crisis Credit: Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-14) Huneeus, Federico; Kaboski, Joseph P.; Larrain, Mauricio; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Vera, Mario
This paper studies the distribution of credit during crisis times and its impact on firm indebtedness and macroeconomic risk. Whereas policies can help firms in need of financing, they can lead to adverse selection from riskier firms and higher default risk. The paper analyzes a large-scale program of public credit guarantees in Chile during the COVID-19 pandemic using unique transaction-level data on the demand and supply of credit, matched with administrative tax data, for the universe of banks and firms. Credit demand channels loans toward riskier firms, distributing 4.6 percent of gross domestic product and increasing firm leverage. Despite increased lending to riskier firms, macroeconomic risks remain small. Several factors mitigate aggregate risk: the small weight of riskier firms, the exclusion of the riskiest firms, bank screening, contained expected defaults, and the government absorption of tail risk. The empirical findings are confirmed with a model of heterogeneous firms and endogenous default.
The Boom in Corporate Borrowing after the Global Financial Crisis: Different Tales from East Asia and Latin America
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-02-18) Abraham, Facundo; Cortina, Juan J.; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Firms from emerging economies increased their bond financing significantly after the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The patterns of corporate borrowing in East Asia and Latin America offer very different lessons. In East Asia, the main component behind the overall growth in bond financing was an expansion in domestic bond issuances, in domestic currency, by more and smaller firms. This expansion seems to be explained by a higher supply of funds by domestic investors, which lowered issuance costs. In Latin America, relatively larger firms tended to borrow from international markets issuing foreign currency bonds. These contrasting patterns have resulted in exposures to different types of risks. Risks in East Asia have been more related to the increasing debt accumulation by smaller firms, issuing debt at shorter maturities. Latin American firms have been more exposed to external factors and currency depreciations.
Bilateral International Investments: The Big Sur?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12) Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Schmukler, Sergio L.; von Peter, Goetz
Using country-to-country data, this paper documents a set of novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance. The paper assembles comprehensive bilateral data on cross-border bank loans and deposits, portfolio investment in debt and equity, foreign direct investment, and international reserves. The main finding is that global financial integration with and especially within the South (countries outside the G7 and Western Europe) has grown faster than within the North. By 2018, the South accounted for 24 to 40 percent of international loans and deposits, portfolio investment, and foreign direct investment, an increase of roughly 10 percentage points since 2001. The growing importance of the South is reflected in the intensive and extensive margins, with fast growth in the number of bilateral links. Although China weighs heavily in these trends, international investment in the rest of the South has increased to a similar extent.
Growth of Global Corporate Debt: Main Facts and Policy Challenges
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09) Abraham, Facundo; Cortina, Juan J.; Schmukler, Sergio L.
This paper surveys the literature to document the main stylized facts, risks, and policy challenges related to the expansion of global nonfinancial corporate debt after the 2008–09 global financial crisis. Nonfinancial corporate debt steadily increased after the crisis, especially in emerging economies. Between 2008 and 2018, corporate debt increased from 56 to 96 percent of gross domestic product in emerging economies, whereas this ratio remained stable in developed economies. Nonfinancial corporate debt was mainly issued through bond markets, and its growth can be largely attributed to accommodative monetary policies in developed economies. Whereas increased debt financing has some positive aspects, it has also amplified firms' solvency risks and exposure to changes in market conditions, such as the economic downturn triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Because capital markets have a larger role in firm financing, policy makers have limited tools to mitigate the risks of growing firm debt.
Toward Successful Development Policies: Insights from Research in Development Economics
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-01) Artuc, Erhan; Cull, Robert; Dasgupta, Susmita; Fattal, Roberto; Filmer, Deon; Gine, Xavier; Jacoby, Hanan; Jolliffe, Dean; Kee, Hiau Looi; Klapper, Leora; Kraay, Aart; Loayza, Norman; Mckenzie, David; Ozler, Berk; Rao, Vijayendra; Rijkers, Bob; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Toman, Michael; Wagstaff, Adam; Woolcock, Michael
What major insights have emerged from development economics in the past decade, and how do they matter for the World Bank? This challenging question was recently posed by World Bank Group President David Malpass to the staff of the Development Research Group. This paper assembles a set of 13 short, nontechnical briefing notes prepared in response to this request, summarizing a selection of major insights in development economics in the past decade. The notes synthesize evidence from recent research on how policies should be designed, implemented, and evaluated, and provide illustrations of what works and what does not in selected policy areas.
Using Big Data to Expand Financial Services: Benefits and Risks
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-11) Abraham, Facundo; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Tessada, Jose
Big data is transforming financial services around the world. Advances in data analytics and computational power are allowing firms to exploit data in an easier, faster, and more reliable manner, and at a larger scale. By using big data, financial firms and new entrants from other sectors are able to provide more and better financial services. Governments are also exploring ways to use big data collected by the financial sector more systematically to get a better picture of the financial system as a whole and the overall economy. Despite its benefits, the wider use of big data has raised concerns related to consumer privacy, data security, discrimination, data accuracy, and competition. Hence, policy makers have started to regulate and monitor the use of big data by financial institutions and to think about how to use big data for the benefit of all.
Financing Firms in Hibernation during the COVID-19 Pandemic
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) Huneeus, Federico; Didier, Tatiana; Larrain, Mauricio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has halted economic activity worldwide, hurting firms and pushing them toward bankruptcy. This paper provides a unified framework to organize the policy debate related to firm financing during the downturn, centered along four main points. First, the economic crisis triggered by the spread of the virus is radically different from past crises, with important consequences for optimal policy responses. Second, to avoid inefficient bankruptcies and long-term detrimental effects, it is important to preserve firms' relationships with key stakeholders, like workers, suppliers, customers, and creditors. Third, firms can benefit from "hibernating," using the minimum bare cash necessary to withstand the pandemic, while using credit to remain alive until the crisis subdues. Fourth, the existing legal and regulatory infrastructure is ill-equipped to deal with an exogenous systemic shock such as this pandemic. Financial sector policies can help increase the provision of credit, while posing difficult choices and trade-offs.