Publication: Economy-Wide Implications of Direct and Indirect Policy Interventions
in the Water Sector : Lessons from Recent Work and Future Research Needs
Loading...
Date
2012-05
ISSN
Published
2012-05
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Water is increasingly becoming a limiting factor for sustainable economic growth and development in many countries. Its allocation has significant impacts on overall economic efficiency, particularly with growing physical scarcity in certain regions. Greater water supply variability further increases vulnerability in affected regions. Water also has become a strategic resource involving conflicts among those who may be affected differently by various policies. This paper analyzes various policy interventions aimed at improving water allocation decisions, using a novel approach that incorporates macro and micro level considerations in a unified analytical framework. The framework facilitates assessment of various linkages among policies and their impacts within individual sectors and economy-wide. Drawing on country based studies in Morocco, South Africa, Turkey, and Mexico, the analysis reveals difficult tradeoffs among various policy objectives, including priorities placed on different sectors, regional advantages, and general economic efficiency gains versus broader social impacts. The comparison of policy impacts demonstrates the usefulness of the framework in information that policy makers can use to rank the policy interventions according to the emphasis placed on different policy objectives. The paper also compares approaches used in other studies that apply computable general equilibrium models in various contexts of water, environment and agriculture.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Dinar, Ariel. 2012. Economy-Wide Implications of Direct and Indirect Policy Interventions
in the Water Sector : Lessons from Recent Work and Future Research Needs. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 6068. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9351 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Asymmetric Bank Distress Amplifier of Recessions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-11)One defining feature of financial crises, evident in U.S. and international data, is asymmetric bank distress—concentrated losses on a subset of banks. This paper proposes a model in which shocks to borrowers’ productivity dispersion lead to asymmetric bank losses. The framework exhibits a “bank distress amplifier,” exacerbating economic downturns by causing costly bank failures and raising uncertainty about the solvency of banks, thereby pushing banks to deleverage. Quantitative analysis shows that the bank distress amplifier doubles investment decline and increases the spread by 2.5 times during the Great Recession compared to a standard financial accelerator model. The mechanism helps explain how a seemingly small shock can sometimes trigger a large crisis.Publication From Tailwinds to Headwinds(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-10)The first quarter of the twenty-first century has been transformative for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). These economies now account for about 45 percent of global GDP, up from about 25 percent in 2000, a trend driven by robust collective growth in the three largest EMDEs—China, India, and Brazil (the EM3). Collectively, EMDEs have contributed about 60 percent of annual global growth since 2000, on average, double the share during the 1990s. Their ascendance was powered by swift global trade and financial integration, especially during the first decade of the century. Interdependence among these economies has also increased markedly. Today, nearly half of goods exports from EMDEs go to other EMDEs, compared to one-quarter in 2000. As cross-border linkages have strengthened, business cycles among EMDEs and between EMDEs and advanced economies have become more synchronized, and a distinct EMDE business cycle has emerged. Cross-border business cycle spillovers from the EM3 to other EMDEs are sizable, at about half of the magnitude of spillovers from the largest advanced economies (the United States, the euro area, and Japan). Yet EMDEs confront a host of headwinds at the turn of the second quarter of the century. Progress implementing structural reforms in many of these economies has stalled. Globally, protectionist measures and geopolitical fragmentation have risen sharply. High debt burdens, demographic shifts, and the rising costs of climate change weigh on economic prospects. A successful policy approach to accelerate growth and development should focus on boosting investment and productivity, navigating a difficult external environment, and enhancing macroeconomic stability.Publication Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09)This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Toward Integrated Water Resources Management in Armenia(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015)The proper management of water resources plays a key role in the socioeconomic development of Armenia. On average, Armenia has sufficient water resources. Taking into account all available water resources in the country, Armenia has sufficient resources to supply approximately 3,100 cubic meters per capita per year well above the typically cited Falkenmark water stress indicator of 1,700 cubic meters per capita per year. These water resources are not evenly divided in space and time with significant seasonal and annual variability in river runoff. In order to address temporal variations in river runoff, the country has built 87 dams with a total capacity of 1.4 billion cubic meters. Most of these dams are single purpose, mainly for irrigation. Armenia also has considerable groundwater resources, which play an important role in the overall water balance. About 96 percent of the water used for drinking purposes and about 40 percent of water abstracted in the country comes from groundwater. Irrigation remains the largest consumptive user.Publication Water Security for Central Kosovo(Washington, DC, 2012-03)Kosovo is a small and young state that gained an interim United Nations (UN)-administered status in the wake of the Dayton peace accord only in 1999; it declared independence in 2008. Compared to neighboring countries, it is still lacking in its basic infrastructure and its administrative and technical skills. In addition, with the onset of the War in Yugoslavia in 1992 most investment and normal maintenance came to a standstill. Much of the publicly owned infrastructure fell into disrepair or was vandalized, but private investments led to a construction boom which, however, is leading to many environmental problems. The government is committed to reconstruction and to the development of a peaceful state. It also intends to align with EU policies. Thus, the study has the specific objectives to: (i) assist the government to improve its river basin planning and management by providing (for demonstration purposes) a replicable tool and simulation model for integrated river basin planning and management; and (ii) support the government in its identification of priority measures of structural and non-structural nature to help strengthen the water resources sector performance. The source(s) for the financing of the identified projects will need to be identified further by the Government as the World Bank has not committed to involvement in the sector.Publication Mongolia(Washington, DC, 2010-04)The report looks critically at the water resources and the current and projected future water demands in the Southern Gobi Region (SGR) using the widely dispersed data and information that are currently available. An important conclusion of the report is that almost all the significant sources of groundwater in the SGR are 'fossil' or 'non-renewable', meaning that they are finite resources which cannot be replenished. Not only will that, but pumping water out of these fosil aquifers tend to cause a drop in the groundwater levels above them. The report proposes practical steps by which water resources development and management could be managed to best serve economic and infrastructure development while giving attention to environmental protection and service to communities in the SGR. The report also highlights the urgent need for more data. A more detailed picture of the distribution and quantity of the groundwater would give planners first, a better idea of both the limits to the growth of the SGR; and, second, of the future water demands, its spatial distribution, quality requirements, and the possibilities to increase water use efficiency and water re-use. Thus there is a need to bring all information and data together to form the basis for rational planning.Publication Review of World Bank Engagement in the Irrigation and Drainage Sector in Azerbaijan(Washington, DC, 2013-02)The sector review includes seven chapters and one annex. This first chapter is an overview of agriculture, irrigation and the purpose and content of this report. The second chapter provides a review of the Bank s own strategy and priorities for irrigation and drainage within its portfolio of investments, from the time of its 2004 Strategy until the present. It also includes a short summary of key lessons learned in this sector. The third chapter provides a brief situation analysis for irrigation and drainage in Azerbaijan, including a description of key parameters and changes; a description of rising challenges, needs and opportunities; and an overview of the Government s State Program (SP) for Sustainable Development of Amelioration and water management for 2008-2015. The fourth chapter describes the issues of investment and financing of irrigation and drainage priorities for infrastructure development, rehabilitation and modernization, and management. This includes investment priorities for the Government as well as needs for cost recovery by water users for the cost of irrigation and drainage system operations and maintenance. The fifth chapter describes the institutional framework and how it has emerged since independence. It also identifies outstanding issues for further institutional development, both for the Government and for water users associations (WUA). The sixth chapter describes the implications of climate change for the vulnerable irrigation and drainage sector in Azerbaijan. Suggestions are provided for a process to prepare an adaptation strategy for climate change. The seventh chapter identifies ten key priorities for investments in the irrigation and drainage sector in Azerbaijan. These priorities are based on the views of staff of the World Bank, staff of the AIOJSC (Amelioration and Irrigation Open Joint Stock Company), selected consultants and the author.Publication Berg Water Project : Communication Practices for Governance and Sustainability Improvement(World Bank, 2010-06-01)The past decade has witnessed a major global shift in thinking about water, including the role that water infrastructure plays in sustainable development. This rethinking aims to better balance the social, economic, and environmental performance aspects in the development and management of large dams. Additionally, it reinforces efforts to combat poverty by ensuring more equitable access to water and energy services. There is also growing appreciation of how broad-based policy reforms come into play and influence decisions around issues related to dams. Apart from democratization of the development process itself, it is increasingly recognized that infrastructure strategies must complement strategies for water, environment, and energy security; they must also address emerging concerns to reduce vulnerability in water resource systems due to the probability of climate change. Communication comes to the forefront in modern approaches to dam planning and management in several respects. Communication is central to multi-stakeholder dialogue and partnerships at all levels needed to achieve sustainability and governance reform in water resource management and infrastructure provision. At the same time, communication drives the advocacy to mobilize political will and public support for beneficial change and continuous improvement in practices. This case study emphasizes that it is important not only to mobilize all opportunities to reconcile water demand and supply in river basins facing increasing levels of water stress, but also to effectively integrate governance and anticorruption reforms and sustainability improvements into all stages of the planning and project cycle-adding value for all stakeholders, not just for some of them.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2014(Washington, DC, 2013-10-06)The past 25 years have witnessed unprecedented changes around the world—many of them for the better. Across the continents, many countries have embarked on a path of international integration, economic reform, technological modernization, and democratic participation. As a result, economies that had been stagnant for decades are growing, people whose families had suffered deprivation for generations are escaping poverty, and hundreds of millions are enjoying the benefits of improved living standards and scientific and cultural sharing across nations. As the world changes, a host of opportunities arise constantly. With them, however, appear old and new risks, from the possibility of job loss and disease to the potential for social unrest and environmental damage. If ignored, these risks can turn into crises that reverse hard-won gains and endanger the social and economic reforms that produced these gains. The World Development Report 2014 (WDR 2014), Risk and Opportunity: Managing Risk for Development, contends that the solution is not to reject change in order to avoid risk but to prepare for the opportunities and risks that change entails. Managing risks responsibly and effectively has the potential to bring about security and a means of progress for people in developing countries and beyond. Although individuals’ own efforts, initiative, and responsibility are essential for managing risk, their success will be limited without a supportive social environment—especially when risks are large or systemic in nature. The WDR 2014 argues that people can successfully confront risks that are beyond their means by sharing their risk management with others. This can be done through naturally occurring social and economic systems that enable people to overcome the obstacles that individuals and groups face, including lack of resources and information, cognitive and behavioral failures, missing markets and public goods, and social externalities and exclusion. These systems—from the household and the community to the state and the international community—have the potential to support people’s risk management in different yet complementary ways. The Report focuses on some of the most pressing questions policy makers are asking. What role should the state take in helping people manage risks? When should this role consist of direct interventions, and when should it consist of providing an enabling environment? How can governments improve their own risk management, and what happens when they fail or lack capacity, as in many fragile and conflict-affected states? Through what mechanisms can risk management be mainstreamed into the development agenda? And how can collective action failures to manage systemic risks be addressed, especially those with irreversible consequences? The WDR 2014 provides policy makers with insights and recommendations to address these difficult questions. It should serve to guide the dialogue, operations, and contributions from key development actors—from civil society and national governments to the donor community and international development organizations.Publication The Mexican Social Protection System in Health(World Bank, Washington DC, 2013-01)With a population of 113 million and a per-capita Gross Domestic Product, or GDP of US$10,064 (current U.S. dollars), Mexico is one of the largest and highest-income countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The country has benefited from sustained economic growth during the last decade, which was temporarily interrupted by the financial and economic crisis. Real GDP is projected to grow 3.8 percent and 3.6 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively (International Monetary Fund, or IMF 2012). Despite this growth, poverty in the country remains high; with half of the population living below the national poverty line. The country is also highly heterogeneous, with large socioeconomic differences across states and across urban and rural areas. In 2010, while the extreme poverty ratio in the Federal District and the states of Colima and Nuevo Leon was below 3 percent, in Chiapas, Guerrero, and Oaxaca it was 25 percent or higher. These large regional differences are also found in other indicators of well-being, such as years of schooling, housing conditions, and access to social services. This case study assesses key features and achievements of the Social Protection System in Health (Sistema de Proteccion Social en Salud) in Mexico, and particularly of its main pillar, Popular Health Insurance (Seguro Popular, PHI). It analyzes the contribution of this policy to the establishment and implementation of universal health coverage in Mexico. In 2003, with the reform of the General Health Law, the PHI was institutionalized as a subsidized health insurance scheme open to the population not covered by the social security schemes. Today, the PHI covers all of its intended affiliates, about 52 million peoplePublication Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28)Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.Publication Guide to the Debt Management Performance Assessment Tool(Washington, DC, 2008-02-05)The purpose of this document is to provide guidance and supplemental information to assist with country assessments of debt management performance, using the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) tool. The DeMPA is a methodology used for assessing public debt management performance through a comprehensive set of 15 performance indicators spanning the full range of government Debt Management (DeM) functions. It is based on the principles set out in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank guidelines for public debt management, initially published in 2001 and updated in 2003. It is modeled after the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) framework for performance measurement of public financial management. The DeMPA has been designed to be a user-friendly tool to undertake an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses in government DeM practices. This guide provides additional background and supporting information so that a no specialist in the area of debt management may undertake a country assessment effectively. The guide can be used by assessors in preparing for and undertaking an assessment. It is particularly useful for understanding the rationale for the inclusion of the indicators, the scoring methodology, and the list of supporting documents or evidence required, and the questions that could be asked for the assessment.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.