Publication: States Diverge, Cities Converge: Drivers of Local Growth Catch-up in India
Loading...
Published
2018-12
ISSN
Date
2018-12-11
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper takes a fresh look at growth convergence in India, combining insights from macroeconomics and urban economics. It departs from the existing literature in three ways. First, the paper assesses growth patterns across districts and across places below the district level instead of taking the state as the unit of analysis. Second, it relies on household expenditures per capita, instead of gross domestic product per capita, to measure living standards. And third, it uses a Bayesian model averaging approach to identify the key drivers of local growth, instead of the classical econometric approach. The paper finds absolute convergence in living standards across districts and places below the district level, with locations in the gray area between rural and urban growing fastest. In assessing conditional convergence, it finds that geography is a strong predictor of local growth, but population density is not. Market access, electrification and transport infrastructure matter, but irrigation and housing investments do not. The quality of state-level governance has a significant impact on local growth, but variations in city governance are only mildly relevant. The share of medium and large firms plays a role, but the sectoral structure of economic activity does not. And the coverage of primary education is an important predictor of subsequent growth, but not that of other levels of education. Strong convergence at the local level can be reconciled with lack of convergence at the state level if low-income states fail to generate enough locations with the "right" characteristics.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Zhao, Qinghua; Li, Yue; Rama, Martin. 2018. States Diverge, Cities Converge: Drivers of Local Growth Catch-up in India. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8660. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30982 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Gender Gaps in the Performance of Small Firms: Evidence from Urban Peru(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23)This paper estimates the gender gap in the performance of firms in Peru using representative data on both formal and informal firms. On average, informal female-led firms have lower sales, labor productivity, and profits compared to their male-led counterparts, with differences more pronounced when controlling for observable determinants of firm performance. However, gender gaps are only significant at the bottom of the performance distribution of informal firms, and these gaps disappear at the top of the distribution of informal firms and for formal firms. Possible explanations for the performance gaps at the bottom of the distribution include the higher likelihood of small, female-led firms being home-based, which is linked to lower profits, and their concentration in less profitable sectors. The paper provides suggestive evidence that household responsibilities play a key role in explaining the gender gap in firm performance among informal firms. Therefore, policies that promote access to care services or foster a more equal distribution of household activities may reduce gender productivity gaps and allow for a more efficient allocation of resources.Publication The Exposure of Workers to Artificial Intelligence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-05)Research on the labor market implications of artificial intelligence has focused principally on high-income countries. This paper analyzes this issue using microdata from a large set of low- and middle-income countries, applying a measure of potential artificial intelligence occupational exposure to a harmonized set of labor force surveys for 25 countries, covering a population of 3.5 billion people. The approach advances work by using harmonized microdata at the level of individual workers, which allows for a multivariate analysis of factors associated with exposure. Additionally, unlike earlier papers, the paper uses highly detailed (4 digit) occupation codes, which provide a more reliable mapping of artificial intelligence exposure to occupation. Results within countries, show that artificial intelligence exposure is higher for women, urban workers, and those with higher education. Exposure decreases by country income level, with high exposure for just 12 percent of workers in low-income countries and 15 percent of workers in lower-middle-income countries. Furthermore, lack of access to electricity limits effective exposure in low-income countries. These results suggest that for developing countries, and in particular low-income countries, the labor market impacts of artificial intelligence will be more limited than in high-income countries. While greater exposure to artificial intelligence indicates larger potential for future changes in certain occupations, it does not equate to job loss, as it could result in augmentation of worker productivity, automation of some tasks, or both.Publication Geopolitical Risks and Trade(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23)This paper studies the impact of geopolitical risks on international trade, using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and an empirical gravity model. The impact of spikes in geopolitical risk on trade is negative, strong, and heterogeneous across sectors. The findings show that increases in geopolitical risk reduce trade by about 30 to 40 percent. These effects are equivalent to an increase of global tariffs of up to 14 percent. Services trade is most vulnerable to geopolitical risks, followed by agriculture, and the impact on manufacturing trade is moderate. These negative effects are partially mitigated by cultural and geographic proximity, as well as by the presence of trade agreements.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Private Cities(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-10)Institutional weaknesses limit the capacity of local governments to support efficient urbanization in developing countries. They also lead to the emergence of large developers with the clout to build entire cities. This paper analyzes the urbanization process when local governments are weak and large developers are powerful. Results from a non-cooperative game setting with minimal assumptions show that multiple equilibria can emerge depending on key institutional parameters of the model and the nature of the game, but all of them are inefficient. In this simple setting, increasing the capacity of the local government may not lead to better outcomes, because it may crowd out urban land development by the more effective private investor. Subsidizing the large investor can ensure efficiency, but it makes the rest of society worse off. Selling the rights to the city can be Pareto efficient, but only provided that the price at which the rights are sold are sufficiently high. However, more analytical and empirical work is needed before these analyses can be deemed relevant in practice. Competition among jurisdictions, time consistency challenges, and the social implications of private cities deserve special attention.Publication Growth Poles(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-12-20)This report looks at the growth poles policy in Romania to determine ways to increase its effectiveness and efficiency for the next programming cycle (2014-2020). The growth poles policy in Romania has been initiated in 2008, as a means to support a balanced economic development of the country, while still targeting investments to maximize economic impact. A total of seven growth poles have been designated and are currently supported as such, via an integrated development plan designed for each. In an effort respond to all the above the Romanian Ministry of Regional Development and Public Administration (MRDPA) has engaged with the World Bank in a broader advisory services partnership implemented between 2012-2013. The current review is a result of this joint work. The report is grouped into three main parts. The first part sets out the context of analysis, including a brief presentation of growth poles policy objectives as well as the European policy context, and conceptual debates in which it is framed. The second part includes a set of recommendations regarding the growth poles policy for the next programming cycle (2014-2020). The third part includes an analysis of each of the growth poles, presenting specific recommendations for each.Publication Africa and Arab Gulf states : Divergent Development Paths and Prospects for Convergence(2009-08-01)In spite of the similarities between Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab Gulf region (Gulf Cooperation Council states), development policies implemented in these two regions of the world have produced markedly different and even divergent outcomes. While Gulf Cooperation Council states have drawn on hydrocarbon revenues to dramatically transform their economic landscape, Sub-Saharan African countries have exhibited abysmal economic and social outcomes. The remarkable increase in personal income and large current account surpluses in Arab Gulf states is in sharp contrast with widespread poverty and recurrent balance of payments crises in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reviews the possible causes of these divergent development paths and discusses the prospects for economic convergence in the new globalization landscape of growing trade ties between the two regions. In particular, it shows that development models underpinned by institutional continuity and intergenerational accountability could enhance long-run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and income convergence between the two regions.Publication Competitive Cities : Reshaping the Economic Geography of Romania(Washington, DC, 2013-12-26)This document examines the geographic distribution of employed individuals across Romania, the implications, and recommendations. Under optimal conditions, cities concentrate economic resources and human talent in a virtuous cycle of increasing urbanization that generates a diverse range of opportunities, enabling people to find better-paying jobs, companies to recruit employees with the right set of skills, and capital and ideas to flow across space more efficiently. The benefits of agglomeration kick in rapidly, increasing the attraction of cities as living and working spaces. However, in the short term, uneven development across regions is both a normal and an inevitable phenomenon. Regrettably, many policymakers tend to resist growing internal divergence, trying to artificially spread the benefits of growth evenly across space. In practice, however, such policies rarely have the intended effects, often wasting resources and slowing down the economy. The basic solution for lagging areas is instead to connect people living there to opportunities in growing cities and offer them access to basic infrastructure for encouraging short-term working mobility and discouraging depopulation/ peremptory migration in favor of intra- and inter-county commuting. In the long run, convergence in living standards will occur as benefits from leading areas spill over to surrounding communities and people who had left lagging areas bring back capital, jobs, and ideas.Publication Understanding the Sources of Spatial Disparity and Convergence : Evidence from Bangladesh(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06)This paper utilizes the mixed effects model to measure and decompose spatial disparity in per capita expenditure in Bangladesh between 2000 and 2010. It finds a significant decline in spatial disparity in urban areas and the country as a whole but no substantial change in rural areas. The decomposition analysis indicates that average years of education, the percentage of households with electricity connections, and phone ownership account for most of the spatial variations in welfare. Spatial convergence in urban areas can be explained primarily by the expansion of electricity and phone networks for household use. Improved access to these services had little effect on spatial disparity in rural areas. This paper offers several explanations for the difference in convergence rates between urban and rural areas.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Dominican Republic Poverty Assessment 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-08)In recent decades, economic growth in the Dominican Republic (DR) has been steady. However, growth has not occurred in such a way as to make the benefits widely and evenly available. In fact, although the DR economy grew faster than that of other LAC countries before the Covid-19 pandemic, its poverty rates and social outcomes remain broadly similar to them. This report seeks to explain this conundrum, as well as to expand the knowledge base to improve the effectiveness of ongoing poverty reduction policies in the DR. The Poverty Assessment draws primarily on new analytical work conducted in the DR, structured around four background notes on: (i) trends in monetary poverty and inequality, as well as the key drivers of those changes; (ii) nonmonetary poverty and its spatial dimensions; (iii) social assistance programs and their role in mitigating poverty; and (iv) climate change and its interaction with poverty. By helping to reduce the evidence gap in each of these areas, our analysis hopes to inform government policies and the national dialogue on poverty reduction. In addition, the note integrates existing analytical work and evidence produced inside and outside the Bank, including from its operations in the country.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.