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Rama, Martin

Office of the Chief Economist, South Asia Region, The World Bank

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Economics and urbanization

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Office of the Chief Economist, South Asia Region, The World Bank

Last updated May 30, 2023

Biography

Martin Rama is the Chief Economist for the South Asia region of the World Bank, based in Delhi. Until October 2012 Martin Rama was the Director of the World Development Report (WDR) 2013, on Jobs. The WDR is the main annual flagship of the World Bank, and the dean of such publications in the area of development economics. The Jobs report built on new research, in-depth case studies and extensive consultations. It led to the compilation of a massive new database of labor indicators across countries. Over the previous eight years, until 2010, Martin Rama was the Lead Economist for Vietnam, based in Hanoi. Martin Rama gained his Ph.D. in macroeconomics in France in 1985. Back to his home country, Uruguay, he worked in CINVE, the country’s largest think tank, and became one of its directors. In parallel with his World Bank duties, he was visiting professor in development economics at the University of Paris until 2005.

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The Gender Implications of Public Sector Downsizing : The Reform Program of Vietnam

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-03) Rama, Martin

Men and women may be affected differently by the transition from central planning to a market economy and especially by the privatization and restructuring of state-owned enterprises. After briefly reviewing the international evidence on this issue, the author looks at the recent experience of Vietnam and the prospects of its new reform program. During the massive downsizing in Vietnam in the early 1990s, many more women than men were laid off. Women withdrew from the labor force in larger numbers than men after separation, but the difference nearly vanished after a year. Economic reforms were associated with a considerable decline in the gender gap in earnings, both in the state sector and outside it. Women are less likely to be retrenched in large numbers in the downsizing in the early part of this decade. Labor redundancies are concentrated in male-dominated sectors, such as mining, transport, and construction; redundancies are smaller in female-dominated sectors, such as footwear, textiles, and garments. Moreover, temporary and short-term contracts are more prevalent in female-dominated sectors, suggesting demand for women's work. Assistance programs for redundant workers have potential gender biases. The authors shows that separation packages defined as a multiple of earnings favor men more, while lump-sum packages favor women more. Packages based on seniority are roughly gender neutral, but require a substantially higher expenditure to reach the same acceptance rate as the other two.
Labor Market "Rigidity" and the Success of Economic Reforms across More than 100 Countries

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-01) Forteza, Alvaro ; Rama, Martin

The authors show that labor market policies and institutions affect the effectiveness of economic reform programs. They compare annual growth rates across 119 countries, using data from 449 World Bank adjustment credits and loans between 1980 and 1996. The results indicate that countries with relatively rigid labor markets experienced deeper recessions before adjustment and slower recoveries afterward. The results also disentangle the mechanisms through which labor market rigidity operates. They find that minimum wages and mandatory benefits do not hurt growth. But the relative size of organized labor (in government and elsewhere) appears to matter. Labor market rigidity seems to be relevant more for political reasons than for economic reasons. The authors' findings suggest that not enough attention has been paid to vocal groups (urban, middle-class groups) that stand to lose from economic reform. The implications of the findings for policymakers: There should be less focus on deregulating the labor market and more on defusing the opposition of (vocal) losers. The results are robust to changes in measurement, controls, and sample, and do not suffer from self-selection bias.
Globalization and Workers in Developing Countries

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-01) Rama, Martin

Stories on the positive and negative effects of globalization on workers in developing countries abound. But a comprehensive picture is missing and many of the stories are ideologically charged. This paper reviews the academic literature on the subject, including several studies currently under way, and derives the implications for public policy. First, it deals with the effects of openness to trade, foreign direct investment, and financial crises on average wages. Second, it discusses the impact of exposure to world markets on the dispersion of wages by occupation, skill, and gender. Third, it describes the pattern of job destruction and job creation associated with globalization. Because these two processes are not synchronized, the fourth issue addressed is the impact on unemployment rates. Fifth, the paper reviews the labor market policies that can be used to offset the adverse effects of globalization on employment and labor earnings. Finally, it discusses how the international community could encourage developing countries to adopt sound labor market policies in the context of globalization.
Are Public Sector Workers Underpaid? Appropriate Comparators in a Developing Country

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-12) Bales, Sarah ; Rama, Martin

How is public sector compensation best aligned with the market? In industrial countries a common reference is the salary paid by private employers for similar jobs (the "jobs approach"). But comparable jobs are formal, and in developing countries the relevant alternative for many public sector workers is informal sector employment. Another approach uses as a reference, the earnings of similar workers in the private sector, regardless of whether their jobs are formal, or informal (the "workers approach"). A potential shortcoming of this approach is that workers may differ in characteristics that are unobservable. The authors assess the importance of this shortcoming, by relying on five econometric methods, four of which correct the bias from unobservable characteristics. The authors focus on state-owned enterprises in Vietnam, which recruited workers on the basis of political loyalty, and other unobservable characteristics. A massive downsizing program, which led to the departure of the most entrepreneurial workers, may have exacerbated the selection bias. However, all the results obtained with the workers approach, fall within a relatively narrow range. They suggest that workers in state-owned enterprises, are overpaid by twenty percent, or more. In contrast, the jobs approach indicates that they could earn two, to six times more in the private sector.
Mandatory Severance Pay : Its Coverage and Effects in Peru

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-06) MacIsaac, Donna ; Rama, Martin

In Peru, as in many other developing countries, employers have the legal obligation to compensate workers who are dismissed through no fault of their own. Is this an efficient mechanism for providing income support to the unemployed? The authors seek an answer to this question, using individual records from a household survey with a panel structure. Relying on five coverage indicators, they show that roughly one in five workers in the private sector, and one in three wage earners in the private sector, is legally entitled to severance pay. Coverage is more prevalent among wealthier workers. Results based on several empirical strategies suggest that workers "pay" for their entitlement to severance pay through lower wages. Consumption among unemployed workers who receive severance pay is 20 to 30 percent greater than among those who do not. Consumption among these workers is actually higher than consumption among employed workers, suggesting that mandatory severance pay is overgenerous in Peru.
State Ownership and Labor Redundancy : Estimates Based on Enterprise-Level Data from Vietnam

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-05) Belser, Patrick ; Rama, Martin

Privatizing, or restructuring state-owned enterprises, may lead to massive layoffs, but the number of redundant workers is usually unknown beforehand. The authors estimate labor redundancy by comparing employment levels across enterprises with different degrees of state ownership. In their model, state enterprises are a hybrid between labor-managed enterprises, and profit-maximizing enterprises, with the profit motive becoming less prominent as the state of capital increases. This model leads to an employment equation, that is estimated using an enterprise database from Vietnam. In this database, constructed especially for this paper, roughly a third of the enterprises are fully state-owned, a third are fully private, and a third are joint ventures between the state, and the private sector. The employment equations control for sector activity, region, and the enterprise's age, among other variables. The results suggest that if the state share of capital were brought down to zero, roughly half of the workers in the corresponding enterprises would be redundant. This is more than ten times the estimate by the current enterprise directors. The results also show a wide dispersion of redundancy across sectors of activity. There is only a weak correlation between estimated labor redundancy, and twelve ad hoc indicators of profitability, productivity, and labor cost. But the correlation between most ad hoc indicators also is weak, suggesting that these indicators are not reliable tools for identifying the most overstaffed enterprises.
Addressing Inequality in South Asia

(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015) Rama, Martin ; Béteille, Tara ; Li, Yue ; Mitra, Pradeep K. ; Newman, John Lincoln

Inequality in South Asia appears to be moderate when looking at standard indicators such as the Gini index, which are based on consumption expenditures per capita. But other pieces of evidence reveal enormous gaps, from extravagant wealth at one end to lack of access to the most basic services at the other. Which prompts the question: How bad is inequality in South Asia? And why would that matter? This book takes a comprehensive look at the extent, nature, and drivers of inequality in this very dynamic region of the world. It discusses how some dimensions of inequality, such as high returns to investments in human capital, contribute to economic growth while others, such as high payoffs to rent-seeking or broken aspirations, undermine it. Drawing upon a variety of data sources, it disentangles the contribution that opportunity in young age, mobility in adult years, and support throughout life make to inequality at any point in time. Equally important, the book sheds light on the prospects of escaping disadvantage over time. The analysis shows that South Asia performs poorly in terms of opportunity. Access to basic services is partial at best, and can be traced to characteristics at birth, including gender, location, and caste. Conversely, the region has had a robust performance in terms of geographical and occupational mobility despite its cluttered urbanization and widespread informality. Migration and jobs have served disadvantaged groups better than the rest, highlighting the importance of the urbanization and private sector development agendas. Support falls somewhere in between. Poverty alleviation programs are pervasive. But the mobilization of public resources is limited and much of it is wasted in regressive subsidies, while inter-government transfers do not do enough to mitigate spatial inequalities.
Job Opportunities along the Rural-Urban Gradation and Female Labor Force Participation in India

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09) Chatterjee, Urmila ; Murgai, Rinku ; Rama, Martin

The recent decline in India’s rural female labor force participation is generally attributed to higher rural incomes in a patriarchal society. Together with the growing share of the urban population, where female participation rates are lower, this alleged income effect does not bode well for the empowerment of women as India develops. This paper argues that a traditional supply-side interpretation is insufficient to account for the decline in female participation rates, and the transformation of the demand for labor at local levels needs to be taken into account as well. A salient trait of this period is the collapse in the number of farming jobs without a parallel emergence of other employment opportunities considered suitable for women. The paper develops a novel approach to capture the structure of employment at the village or town level, and allow for differences along six ranks in the rural-urban gradation. It also considers the possible misclassification of urban areas as rural, as a result of household surveys lagging behind India’s rapid urbanization process. The results show that the place of residence along the rural-urban gradation loses relevance as an explanation of female labor force participation once local job opportunities are taken into account. Robustness checks confirm that the main findings hold even when taking into account the possibility of spurious correlation and endogeneity. They also hold under alternative definitions of labor force participation and when sub-samples of women are considered. Simulations suggest that for India to reverse the decline in female labor force participation rates it needs to boost job creation.
Advanced-Country Policies and Emerging-Market Currencies: The Impact of U.S. Tapering on India’s Rupee

(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-03) Ikeda, Yuki ; Medvedev, Denis ; Rama, Martin

The global financial crisis and its aftermath have triggered extraordinary policy responses in advanced countries. The impacts of these policy responses—from asset price bubbles to currency depreciations—have often been felt in the developing world. As tapering talk evolves into actual withdrawal of quantitative easing in the United States, and as the Euro Zone launches its own quantitative easing program, there are good reasons to be concerned about the financial stability of emerging economies. India's experience with U.S. tapering offers insights into what to expect. This paper estimates the contribution of external and domestic factors to short-term fluctuations in the value of the Indian rupee between 2004 and 2014, using a rich dynamic model that controls for a large number of exchange rate determinants. The paper finds that a global surprise factor, more than domestic vulnerabilities, was the main driver of the large rupee depreciation in summer 2013. With the surprise factor gone, further normalization of U.S. monetary policy is unlikely to have significant effects on the rupee exchange rate.
Households or Locations?: Cities, Catchment Areas and Prosperity in India

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11) Li, Yue ; Rama, Martin

Policy makers in developing countries, including India, are increasingly sensitive to the links between spatial transformation and economic development. However, the empirical knowledge available on those links is most often insufficient to guide policy decisions. There is no shortage of case studies on urban agglomerations of different sorts, or of benchmarking exercises for states and districts, but more systematic evidence is scarce. To help address this gap, this paper combines insights from poverty analysis and urban economics, and develops a methodology to assess spatial performance with a high degree of granularity. This methodology is applied to India, where individual household survey records are mapped to “places” (both rural and urban) below the district level. The analysis disentangles the contributions household characteristics and locations make to labor earnings, proxied by nominal household expenditure per capita. The paper shows that one-third of the variation in predicted labor earnings is explained by the locations where households reside and by the interaction between these locations and household characteristics such as education. In parallel, this methodology provides a workable metric to describe spatial productivity patterns across India. The paper shows that there is a gradation of spatial performance across places, rather than a clear rural-urban divide. It also finds that distance matters: places with higher productivity are close to each other, but some spread their prosperity over much broader areas than others. Using the spatial distribution of this metric across India, the paper further classifies places at below-district level into four tiers: top locations, their catchment areas, average locations, and bottom locations. The analysis finds that some small cities are among the top locations, while some large cities are not. It also finds that top locations and their catchment areas include many high-performing rural places, and are not necessarily more unequal than average locations. Preliminary analysis reveals that these top locations and their catchment areas display characteristics that are generally believed to drive agglomeration economies and contribute to faster productivity growth.