Publication: Iran Economic Monitor, Spring 2024: Sustaining Growth Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions
Loading...
Date
2024-07-12
ISSN
Published
2024-07-12
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Iran Economic Monitor (IEM) provides an update on key economic developments and policies. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications for the outlook for the country. The IEM’s coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged on Iran.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2024. Iran Economic Monitor, Spring 2024: Sustaining Growth Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41861 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Iran Economic Monitor, Spring 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06-21)The recession in Iran accelerated in 2019-20 as United States (U.S.) sanctions further tightened. Inflation has gradually declined as the impact of the sharp depreciation of the rial in 2018-19 dissipated but foreign exchange reserves remain limited. The growing gross borrowing needs has increased the government’s reliance on debt issuance and withdrawals from strategic reserves. Negative economic growth and high inflation coupled with COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will put further pressure on household livelihoods in 2020-21. The current unique situation of Iran’s economy presents significant downside risks for the baseline macroeconomic outlook. The country’s economic and social challenges disproportionately impact the lower income decile households who have faced significant economic pressure. Any increase in the value of cash transfers, along with introducing targeting mechanisms, can help the poor cope with the social-economic shocks, but fiscal constraints may limit the scope for significant response.Publication Iran Economic Monitor, Spring 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)Iran’s economy witnessed a modest recovery in the second half of 2020 following more than two years of economic recession. Restricted access to foreign exchange reserves and limited other external financing sources translated to pressures on the exchange rate and higher inflation in 2020-2021. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic further intensified economic pressures on the most vulnerable. Iran’s economic outlook hinges on the evolution of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the pace of global economic recovery, and the possibility of easing of US sanctions. The economy is at a crossroads and urgently needs a recovery plan of comprehensive and coordinated macro-fiscal reforms. Growth-enhancing reforms such as investment in green infrastructure, digital economy, and renewable energy can help lead the economy out of the pandemic and create much needed jobs.Publication Iran Economic Monitor, Spring 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-04)This Iran Economic Monitor (IEM) provides an update on key economic developments and policies as of Spring 2022. Iran’s economy continued its gradual recovery in 2021-2022 following the rebound in domestic and external demand. Despite a more accommodative fiscal policy in 2021-2022, higher oil and tax revenues have improved the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio. GDP growth is projected to remain modest in the medium term, as the economy remains constrained by both global and domestic gr owth bottlenecks. A more favorable global oil market outlook is projected to improve Iran’s fiscal and external balances. Iran’s economic outlook is subject to significant risks. Consumer price inflation accelerated due to a combination of supply-push and demandpull factors, adding to pressures on the welfare of lower-income households. Addressing long-term development challenges, including impending climate change shocks, requires a comprehensive package of economic reforms complemented by adequate social protection measures.Publication Iran Economic Monitor, Spring 2017(Washington, DC, 2017-06-30)The Iran Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context, and assesses their implications for the outlook for the country. Its coverage has ranged from the macroeconomy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Iran.Publication Iran Economic Monitor, Spring/Summer 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-22)The Iran Economic Monitor (IEM) provides an update on key economic developments and policies. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications for the outlook for thecountry. The IEM’s coverage ranges from the macroeconomy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. Iran’s economy continued to grow moderately for the third consecutive year in 2022/23, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous year. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.8 percent in 2022/23, driven by expansions in services and manufacturing. Despite sanctions, the oil sector also expanded, aided by the tighter global oil markets. Favorable weather conditions helped the agriculture sector to marginally grow after the contractionsin previous years. On the expenditure side, private consumption was the main driver of GDP growth. Government consumption contracted to contain the budget deficit following a sharp expansionary policy in 2021/22. Meanwhile, exports and importsboth increased, and strong investment in machinery drove investments up, while construction investment marginally improved. However, the economy continuesto face growth constraints notably related to the economic sanctions, restricted access to external markets and to the latest technology, and much needed foreign investment. The Special Focus of the report highlights the scarring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting the marked deterioration in labor market outcomes. Despite sizeable government interventions to sustain the economy, in the first year of the pandemic (2021/22), approximately 1 million Jobs were lost, and labor force participation contracted by 3 percentage points. Iranian women were the most affected: two out of three jobs lost between 2019/20 and 2020/21 were previously held by women. The gendered impact of the crisis contributed to widening Iranian’s women disadvantage in the labor market. Most importantly, the gains in femalelabor force participation slowly accumulated since 2011 vanished. Consistent with what is observed in other countries, women with young children were the most affected by the crisis. The combined effect of school closures and unequal intra-household allocation of care responsibilities, associated with prevailing gender norms, pushed Iranian women with children out of the labor force. Whether or not these trends will be reversed as the management of the COVID-19 pandemic is normalized and the economy recovers from the crisis remains an important policy question.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.