Publication:
Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies: Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (19.07 MB)
157 downloads
English Text (382.89 KB)
93 downloads
Published
2025-06-13
ISSN
Date
2025-05-13
Author(s)
Davis, M.
Brown, R.
Editor(s)
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly evident across Southern and Eastern Africa, bringing higher temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, more extreme weather, and sometimes catastrophic events. These impacts are expected to intensify in the coming decades, making it crucial to build climate resilience. Governments in the region recognize the threats and, in partnership with the World Bank, have taken steps to reduce climate risks and help their citizens adapt. Yet, without a clear understanding of how social vulnerability interacts with climate risks, these efforts may fail to protect those who are least able to cope with climate shocks. Indeed, some climate investments could leave vulnerable groups worse off. This report draws on a wealth of new analysis for eight countries, Botswana, Burundi, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa, conducted by the Social Sustainability and Inclusion team to provide that crucial perspective for Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs). It highlights how social vulnerability puts some people in harm’s way or prevents them from finding safety; limits their access to resources for adaptation; and constrains their agency and their voice. Poverty is a key factor, but so is social exclusion. The goal of the report is to show how understanding social vulnerability can help policymakers to prioritize climate investments, design projects and programs to be more inclusive, and create tailored initiatives that make households and communities stronger and more resilient overall. These insights can help World Bank teams and other development partners as they engage with countries in the region to support green, resilient, and inclusive development.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Canpolat, E.; de Berry, J.; Davis, M.; Brown, R.. 2025. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies: Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43184 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Social Dimensions of Climate Change : Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World
    (World Bank, 2010) Norton, Andrew; Mearns, Robin; Mearns, Robin; Norton, Andrew
    Climate change is widely acknowledged as foremost among the formidable challenges facing the international community in the 21st century. It poses challenges to fundamental elements of our understanding of appropriate goals for social and economic policy, such as the connection of prosperity, growth, equity, and sustainable development. This volume seeks to establish an agenda for research and action built on an enhanced understanding of the relationship between climate change and the key social dimensions of vulnerability, social justice, and equity. The volume is organized as follows. This introductory chapter first sets the scene by framing climate change as an issue of social justice at multiple levels, and by highlighting equity and vulnerability as the central organizing themes of an agenda on the social dimensions of climate change. Chapter two leads off with a review of existing theories and frameworks for understanding vulnerability, drawing out implications for pro-poor climate policy. Understanding the multilayered causal structure of vulnerability then can assist in identifying entry points for pro-poor climate policy at multiple levels. Building on such analytical approaches, chapters three and four, respectively, consider the implications of climate change for armed conflict and for migration. Those chapters are followed by a discussion of two of the most important social cleavages that characterize distinct forms of vulnerability to climate change and climate action: gender (chapter five) and ethnicity or indigenous identity (chapter six), in the latter case, focusing on the role of indigenous knowledge in crafting climate response measures in the Latin American and Caribbean region. Chapter seven highlights the important mediating role of local institutions in achieving more equitable, pro-poor outcomes from efforts to support adaptation to climate change. Chapter eight examines the implications of climate change for agrarian societies living in dry-land areas of the developing world, and chapter nine does the same for those living in urban centers. Chapter ten considers the role of social policy instruments in supporting pro-poor adaptation to climate change; and it argues for a focus on 'no-regrets' options that integrate adaptation with existing development approaches, albeit with modifications to take better account of the ways in which climate variables interact with other drivers of vulnerability. Finally, chapter eleven turns to the implications of climate policy and action for forest areas and forest people.
  • Publication
    Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change
    (2011-01-01) Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha; Heltberg, Rasmus
    This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natural disasters, sensitivity to the impacts of that exposure, and capacity to adapt to ongoing and future climatic changes. This index can inform decisions about adaptation responses that might benefit from an assessment of how and why vulnerability to climate change varies regionally and it may therefore prove a useful tool for policy analysts interested in how to ensure pro-poor adaptation in developing countries. Index results for Tajikistan suggest that vulnerability varies according to socio-economic and institutional development in ways that do not follow directly from exposure or elevation: geography is not destiny. The results indicate that urban areas are by far the least vulnerable, while the eastern Region of Republican Subordination mountain zone is the most vulnerable. Prime agricultural valleys are also relatively more vulnerable, implying that adaptation planners do not necessarily face a trade-off between defending vulnerable areas and defending economically important areas. These results lend support to at least some elements of current adaptation practice.
  • Publication
    Mainstreaming Environment and Climate Change in the Implementation of Poverty Reduction Strategies
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-06) Griebenow, Gonzalo; Kishore, Sunanda
    Poverty reduction strategies (PRSs) provide a central framework for macroeconomic, structural, and social policies in developing countries. Because of the numerous and complex links between environment and poverty, it is important that environmental issues are taken into account in the PRS process. This paper follows six previous assessments of the degree of mainstreaming environment in the PRS process using a similar methodology to present trends and provide an understanding of the effectiveness of environmental interventions in reducing poverty. However, it goes beyond previous assessments in three important ways. In-depth country case studies of the evolution of environmental mainstreaming in the PRS process over time. Many countries have now gone through several iterations of their poverty reduction strategies and have received a sequence of credits designed to implement key aspects of these strategies, making it possible to see how the process of mainstreaming environment in the strategies has evolved over time. In this assessment, the authors conduct detailed case studies of this evolution in Ghana, Albania, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. The choice of countries was based on the maturity of each country's PRS process, taking into consideration country size, lending volume, and vulnerability to climate change. An assessment of climate change mainstreaming in the PRS process in the same four countries. Like environment as a whole, the potential impacts of climate change have often been considered separately, if at all rather than as an integral part of development policies. An evaluation of environmental development policy loans (DPLs) in several middle income countries (Brazil, Gabon, and Mexico). DPLs represent an important opportunity to mainstream environment and climate change into middle-income countries' growth and development. This review assesses the process by which environmental DPLs have been prepared and the effectiveness with which they have been implemented.
  • Publication
    Human Rights and Climate Change : A Review of the International Legal Dimensions
    (World Bank, 2011-03-17) McInerney-Lankford, Siobhan; Darrow, Mac; Rajamani, Lavanya
    The study includes a conceptual overview of the link between climate impacts and human rights, focused on the relevant legal obligations underpinning the international law frameworks governing both human rights and climate change. As such it makes a significant contribution to the global debate on climate change and human rights by offering a comprehensive analysis of the international legal dimensions of this intersection. The study helps advance an understanding of what is meant, in legal and policy terms, by the human rights impacts of climate change through examples of specific substantive rights. It gives a legal and theoretic perspective on the connection between human rights and climate change along three dimensions: first, human rights may affect the enjoyment of human rights. Second, measures to address human rights may impact the realization of rights and third, that human rights have potential relevance to policy and operational responses to climate change, and may promote resilience to climate change, including in developing countries in a way that may help sustainable development. This study effectively consolidates knowledge from the fields of international human rights law, international law governing climate change and international environmental law, building on the existing work of the United Nation (UN) office of the high commissioner on human rights, the UN human rights council and the international council on human rights policy. Although it maintains a legal focus, the study has benefited from the input of a host of international experts from other disciplines as well.
  • Publication
    Development, Climate Change and Human Rights from the Margins to the Mainstream?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-03) Cameron, Edward
    Since 2005, a growing number of vulnerable communities and nations have used the human rights lexicon to argue their case for an urgent and ambitious response to climate change. The purpose of this Social Development Department Working paper is to examine the emergence of a new discourse linking climate change and human rights, and to assess its social and political implications, particularly as they relate to development practitioners. The scope of this paper is to explore what relevance this new discourse has on what David Kennedy calls the 'vocabularies, expertise, and sensibilities' of development practitioners (Kennedy 2005). The methodology for this paper involved interviews with academics and policy practitioners who have shaped this emerging discourse; a wide-ranging literature review of texts relevant to the fields of development, climate change and human rights; discussions with development professionals who have the daily responsibility of operationalizing approaches to reducing vulnerability and building resilience; and finally drawing upon the author's own experience leading the Maldives' government's initiative on the Human Dimensions of Climate Change and as a consultant within the Social Dimensions of Climate Change Cluster of the World Bank's Social Development Department. It is important to stress that this paper is not a legal piece. Human rights are as much about ethical demands, calls for social justice, public awareness, advocacy, and political action as they are concerned with legal norms and rules. Sen has pointed out a 'theory of human rights cannot be sensibly confined within the juridical model in which it is frequently incarcerated' (Sen 2004, 319). Consequently this piece will focus on the wider, political economy aspects of the interface between human rights and climate change. It is further appropriate to state that this is not an advocacy piece. The paper deliberately avoids being normative or prescriptive in recommending a human rights-based approach to developing climate change operations. It does examine why vulnerable populations chose to embrace this approach, why they continue to view it as a transformative strategy, and what some of the successes and challenges have been.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-28) World Bank Group
    The Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores the impact of climate change and global decarbonization on Tajikistan’s development. It identifies key areas to enhance climate resilience and deepen decarbonization and outlines priority recommendations for a successful green transition in Tajikistan, requiring structural reforms, climate-conscious policies, and inclusive strategies for a resilient and sustainable future. Despite economic growth and poverty reduction over the past two decades, Tajikistan's reliance on natural resources and remittances has led to unsustainable development, depleting natural capital and limiting job creation. The government’s green transition plan focuses on renewable energy, promising energy security, economic growth, and regional electricity exports. However, further efforts are needed for a resilient development path, including a complementary reform program to bring significant economic benefits, climate adaptation, and low-carbon development that will benefit Tajikistan and Central Asia's electricity systems. Climate change poses significant risks, threatening water security, agricultural productivity, and infrastructure, potentially reducing GDP per capita by 5-6% by mid-century and pushing 100,000 people into poverty. Additional adaptation measures are crucial, focusing on water management, resilient landscapes, climate-smart agriculture, and disaster risk management. A low-carbon development pathway offers a more resilient and prosperous future, with near net-zero emissions in energy and waste sectors by 2050, boosting economic growth, and job creation and reducing air pollution. Achieving these goals requires substantial investments and institutional reforms to mobilize private capital and attract green foreign investment. Development partners can provide financial assistance, technical expertise, and capacity building.
  • Publication
    Unlocking the Power of Healthy Longevity
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-12) World Bank
    Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are among the major health and development challenges of our time. Every year, about 41 million people die due to NCDs. This makes up about 74 percent of all deaths globally, the majority of which are in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Countless more people live with NCDs every day. Yet, NCDs are largely treatable and preventable. The risk of developing NCDs and deaths from them can both be lowered with appropriate attention to prevention and treatment. However, weak health systems and limited access to affordable care and information, especially in LMICs, contribute to lapses in seeking and receiving appropriate and timely care. This compendium is a compilation of 18 chapters, each exploring a different but related topic in the nexus of NCDs, human capital, and productivity. It is based on a series of analytical work taken up by the World Bank to support the Healthy Longevity Initiative (HLI) - a collaborative effort between the World Bank, the University of Toronto, and key academic and development partners including the Harvard University and the University of Washington. The HLI presents one of a growing set of efforts to increase the urgency of policy response to NCDs across the world.
  • Publication
    Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23) World Bank Group
    Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.
  • Publication
    Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05) World Bank
    The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.
  • Publication
    Senegal Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-05) World Bank Group
    Climate action offers an opportunity to safeguard development gains and accompany the ambitious transformation Senegal is embarking on to achieve its objective of reaching middle income status in the next decade. While the country was among the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), poverty reduction was slow, vulnerabilities persisted, and inequalities increased. In addition, overall productivity remained low, with lagging structural transformation, high informality, and low job creation. To attain its middle-income goal, Senegal must initiate a series of reforms for a productive, sustainable, and inclusive growth model, with climate considerations at the center given the country’s high vulnerability. Senegal’s high climate vulnerability is caused by the country’s coastal exposure and reliance on natural resources for food, jobs, and growth (partly a consequence of its slow structural transformation). With temperatures soaring, precipitation expected to decrease, and erosion threatening 75 percent of the coastline at term, Senegal’s population and assets are under high risk. The poorest are particularly vulnerable, with 55 percent of total households teetering on the edge of poverty because of recurrent shocks. Without action, annual economic losses could reach 3-4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as soon as 2030 and further increase to 9.4 percent by 2050, wiping years of per capita income growth and eroding any potential human capital accumulation. Overall, climate change could push two more million Senegalese in poverty by mid-century. Building resilience and leveraging the low-carbon economy will help Senegal realizing its growth ambitions, contributing to a more productive, sustainable, and inclusive development pathway. The macro-economic analysis for this CCDR finds that adaptation measures in selected sectors could bring GDP gains of about 2 percent by 2030, and between 0.5 and 1 percent afterwards (for climate financing needs of about 0.9 percent of GDP in the period to 2030 and 0.1 percent afterwards). Adaptation could also reduce poverty headcount, with 40 percent less people pushed into poverty by climate change compared to no adaptation action. In addition, emission reductions could reach 20MtCO2e per year over the period to 2050, from interventions in forestry, improved cooking services, urban transport, waste management, and energy production. The energy transition provides an opportunity to meet both development and climate objectives, exceeding NDC targets and putting the country well on track for net zero by 2050, but significant downside risks remain, linked to delays in the deployment and financing availability for renewable generation and domestic gas. Senegal’s formidable renewable energy potential (chiefly around solar) offers the lowest cost generation option to meet rising energy demand while accelerating decarbonization. At term, the country could play a leading role in decarbonizing the region though export opportunities and bolster resilience across the regional grid. In the short term, given constraints to the fast deployment of renewables, the transitional use of domestic gas will help phase out expensive and high-emitting coal and Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) generation, while balancing the electricity system and lowering the cost of electricity. Climate action will require a financing of US$8.2 billion over 2025-30 (in present value, at 6 percent per year), or 4.5 percent of discounted cumulative GDP over the same period, and US$10.6 billion over 2031-50 (in present value terms), or 2.0 percent of discounted cumulative GDP over the same period. Water security, sustainable (urban) transport, and the energy transition account for the largest share. Importantly, climate action is expected to bring significant benefits over time, beyond climate adaptation and mitigation – including health or jobs, (as in the primary sector, with 155,000 jobs created, of which 80 percent in agriculture). Many benefits could not be properly estimated, implying that the returns from climate action might well be underestimated.