Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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Used with the permission of Jeffengeloutdoors.com / Getty Images. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Alybek Ismailov Suggested Citation: Canpolat, E., de Berry, J., Davis, M., and Brown, R. 2025. “Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies: Lessons from CCDRs in Southern Africa and Eastern Africa.” Washington, DC: World Bank. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies ii Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa Table of Contents Acknowledgements.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................v Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................vii 1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 ............................................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Climate Hazards, Poverty, and Social Exclusion. 2.1 Climate hazards in a geographically diverse region............................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 From exposure to climate hazards, to vulnerability........................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Implications for policy and operational responses............................................................................................................................................14 3. The Many Layers of Social Vulnerability............................................................................................................................................................................. 18 3.1 The rural poor.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 3.2 The urban poor.................................................................................................................................................................................................................21 3.3 Race, ethnicity, and indigeneity...............................................................................................................................................................................22 .........................................................................................................................................................................................23 3.4 Gender, sexuality, and age. 3.5 Implications for policy and operational responses...........................................................................................................................................25 4. Conflict, Violence, Displacement, and Migration ............................................................................................................................................................28 ......................................................................................................................................28 4.1 The nexus of climate change, exclusion, and conflict. 4.2 Climate change and gender-based violence........................................................................................................................................................31 4.3 Displacement and migration.....................................................................................................................................................................................33 4.4 Global mitigation goods vs. community needs..................................................................................................................................................35 4.5 Implications for policy and operational responses.......................................................................................................................................... 36 5. Integrating Social Inclusion in Climate Action ............................................................................................................................................................... 40 5.1 Social inclusion in mitigation and adaptation policies .................................................................................................................................. 40 5.2 ‘Just transitions’ and socially inclusive climate action....................................................................................................................................44 5.3. Supporting and empowering local communities.............................................................................................................................................45 5.4 Implications for policy and operational responses............................................................................................................................................51 6. Conclusions and Recommendations................................................................................................................................................................................... 58 6.1 Strengthen the knowledge base on social vulnerability................................................................................................................................. 59 .......................................................................... 60 6.2 Integrate social vulnerability analysis in country engagement and project design. 6.3 Prioritize social inclusion in the pursuit of global public mitigation goods............................................................................................ 60 References............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................62 Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies iv Acknowledgements This research was jointly led by Ezgi Canpolat and Joanna de Berry, who shaped the project’s conceptual framework and methodology, oversaw its execution, drafted the content and guided the editorial process, with support from Varalakshmi Vemuru and David S. Warren. The main writing team consisted of Rory Brown, who authored significant portions of the initial draft, and Marion Davis, who took the lead in revising and refining the final text. The report drew upon extensive background research on social dimensions of climate change conducted across multiple countries. In South Africa, a team led by Bandita Sijapati, Erika Auer, and Ezgi Canpolat collaborated with researchers Peta Wolpe, Holle Wlokas, Teboho Mosuoe-Tsietsi, Yakhuluntu Dubazana, Fowzia Davids, Andy Spitz, and Yaowen Deng to develop the CCDR report. For the DRC SDCC report, Ezgi Canpolat and Joanna de Berry directed research efforts involving Rory Brown, Michel Thill, Dan Owen, Christopher C. Gabelle, Patrick Lisakaman Lembo, Grace Muhimpundu, and Lisette Meno Khonde. The Madagascar SDCC report was researched under the leadership of Joanna de Berry and Ezgi Canpolat, with contributions from Saagarika Dadu, Rory Brown, and Abhimanyu Dadu. Additional research for the Botswana and Namibia CCDR was conducted by Ezgi Canpolat and Elham Shabahat, while Neelam Verjee led a team from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in developing the Mozambique CCDR. The Multi-Dimensional Exclusion (MDE) analysis was led by Paola Marcela Ballon Fernandez and Jose Antonio Cuesta Leiva with support from Omar Albuquerque. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa v Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies Executive Summary Climate change is increasingly evident across Southern and Exposure to climate hazards is not the same as vulnerability, Eastern Africa, bringing higher temperatures, shifting rainfall however. The latter depends on multiple factors, such as patterns, more extreme weather, and sometimes catastrophic poverty, deprivation, and the quality of infrastructure, public events. These impacts are expected to intensify in the coming services, and governance. The countries covered by this report decades, making it crucial to build climate resilience. vary greatly in their political systems, development levels, degree of urbanization, economic structure, income, and Governments in the region recognize the threats and, in poverty levels, and all this affects climate vulnerability. partnership with the World Bank, have taken steps to reduce climate risks and help their citizens adapt. Yet, without a Several countries in Southern and Eastern Africa are ranked clear understanding of how social vulnerability interacts with among the most vulnerable in the world on the ND-GAIN climate risks, these efforts may fail to protect those who are Index, which takes social, economic, and governance issues least able to cope with climate shocks. Indeed, some climate into account. Out of 188 countries ranked, Mozambique is investments could leave vulnerable groups worse off. No. 153; Angola, 160; Comoros, 167; Madagascar, 178; and DRC, 184. Only Seychelles and Botswana are in the top This report draws on a wealth of new analysis for eight half of the list, ranked No. 75 and 86, respectively.Another countries—Botswana, Burundi, Comoros, the Democratic aspect of vulnerability is social exclusion. Multidimensional Republic of Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, exclusion (MDE) assessments use an index based on indicators and South Africa—conducted by the Social Sustainability and for empowerment, voice and accountability; resilience and Inclusion team to provide that crucial perspective for Country cohesion; and economic inclusion. MDE analyses were Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs). It highlights conducted for five countries in the region, and the results were how social vulnerability puts some people in harm’s way or applied to maps to look for overlaps between social exclusion prevents them from finding safety; limits their access to and the severity of climate hazards. resources for adaptation; and constrains their agency and their voice. Poverty is a key factor, but so is social exclusion. The exercise found significant overlaps. For example, in Madagascar, southern regions in which exclusion rates exceed The goal of the report is to show how understanding social 95 percent face some of the worst heat and droughts. Similarly, vulnerability can help policy makers to prioritize climate in Namibia, provinces with exclusion rates as high as 94 percent investments, design projects and programs to be more faced significant climate anomalies, including temperature inclusive, and create tailored initiatives that make households extremes and irregular precipitation. Not only may climate and communities stronger and more resilient overall. These hazards be most severe in the areas least equipped to withstand insights can help World Bank teams and other development them, but they could further deepen social vulnerabilities. partners as they engage with countries in the region to support green, resilient, and inclusive development. 1. Climate hazard analyses should be complemented by equally robust assessments of social vulnerability and Climate hazards, poverty, and exclusion to ensure a comprehensive understanding of risks. social exclusion 2. The design of interventions should integrate this dual Given the geographic diversity of the region, both current and perspective, working closely with governments to projected future climate change impacts vary significantly, even develop interventions that address the root causes of within individual countries. There are also large uncertainties due climate vulnerability. to data gaps and, in some cases, limited research and climate modeling to date. Still, it is clear that countries face serious 3. Inclusive approaches should be prioritized, proactively and worsening climate hazards including increasingly unreliable mitigating risks shaped by social, economic, cultural, rainfall, hotter temperatures, and more intense extreme weather and political dynamics to create more sustainable and events: from droughts, to floods, to deadly cyclones. equitable solutions. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa vii The many layers of social There are large gender gaps in land ownership, and when women are responsible for water and fuelwood, they are vulnerability disproportionately affected by impacts on those resources. The MDE analyses found that women in the region were Social vulnerability levels vary greatly within countries consistently more excluded than men. and even within communities and households. There are often large differences across regions, and historical power Gender disparities and discrimination intersect with other struggles, discrimination, and marginalization have created inequalities, resulting in particularly severe vulnerability lasting disparities. Social and cultural norms are also key among women and girls who also belong to marginalized factors. The interplay of these dynamics is complex and communities. Sexual minorities, including lesbian, gay, requires careful analysis. bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ+) individuals, face significant discrimination, and the MDE analysis shows that Poverty, deprivation, and social exclusion take different forms older adults, youth, and people with disabilities consistently in rural and urban areas, and it is important to understand face higher exclusion rates in the region. these differences in order to design effective interventions to build climate resilience. In rural areas of Southern and A key takeaway is that it is not enough to look at monetary Eastern Africa, vulnerability is driven by the prevalence poverty as a proxy for social vulnerability; intersectional of rainfed subsistence agriculture, weak institutions and approaches are crucial. This has two main implications for services, low-quality infrastructure, and environmental policy and practice: degradation and biodiversity loss. Both extreme poverty and multidimensional exclusion are common, as communities are Social vulnerability should be examined from an intersectional isolated and lack the assets or access to credit they need to perspective, looking at factors beyond monetary poverty improve their situation. that can deepen vulnerability, such as inadequate access to services and social exclusion. In urban areas, people are far less likely to live in extreme poverty, or to be deprived of basic needs, than rural residents, Drawing on the resulting insights, response measures can but there is profound inequality. Many people who move to be tailored to the differentiated needs of vulnerable groups cities in search of economic opportunities end up living in and populations, aiming to address key deficits while slums, without decent housing or basic services such as clean building on strengths. water, sanitation, and electricity, and trapped in poverty. The urban poor are disproportionately exposed to climate hazards Conflict, violence, displacement, such as floods, as they often live on marginal land with and migration inadequate infrastructure. Social and political exclusion, deprivation, and entrenched Ethnic and racial minorities and Indigenous communities inequalities are known drivers of conflict and, sometimes, across the region also have high levels of social vulnerability violence in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change exacerbates due to persistent patterns of discrimination. Whether they vulnerabilities that can lead to conflict and violence. Conflict are established in policy, or the lingering effects of historical and violence, in turn, make people more vulnerable to climate tensions or marginalization, these patterns can result in change by harming them physically, destroying their assets, exclusion from or limited access to resources, services, and and intensifying social, economic, and political pressures economic opportunities. In South Africa, for example, Black overall. Both climate shocks and conflict and violence also African households still lag far behind other racial groups even drive displacement and migration. three decades after the end of apartheid. Indigenous Peoples in several countries have been marginalized and displaced Four of the countries covered by this report are on the World from their ancestral lands. Bank’s 2025 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations: DRC and Mozambique for active conflicts, and Burundi and Globally and within Southern and Eastern Africa, women and Comoros for institutional and social fragility. DRC has been girls face a wide range of disadvantages—sometimes under plagued by fragility, conflict, and violence for decades, and the law, but often due to customary practices, social and social vulnerability and exclusion issues both contribute to cultural norms, and the legacy of historical discrimination. conflict and are exacerbated by it. In Mozambique, where Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies viii seven cyclones struck just between 2017 and 2024, and Integrating social inclusion in major floods have occurred, conflict and violence significantly hinder disaster response and humanitarian assistance and climate action make it difficult to build resilience. This leaves people more vulnerable to future climate hazards. Understanding social vulnerability is crucial to the design of effective climate strategies, policies, programs, and Violence also drives displacement, affecting millions in DRC projects. Mitigation efforts such as curbing deforestation alone. Natural hazards are less likely than conflicts to displace may disproportionately affect local communities. There is people long-term, but they still affect hundreds of thousands also growing evidence of “maladaptation,” when responses of people in the region every year. Projects that achieve to climate change shift risks to other people, undermine global mitigation goods, from forest protection to extracting resilience, or create new vulnerabilities. minerals needed for clean energy technologies, can also drive displacement and deepen vulnerability. A key first step in ensuring equitable, inclusive, and effective climate action is to deliberately address social vulnerability The interplay of climate change, conflict, and violence affects in national policies, strategies, and plans. Countries in people differently depending on their gender. Men and boys Southern and Eastern Africa have made some efforts in this are often recruited into armed groups, while women and girls regard, and some have explicitly discussed social vulnerability are often deprived of basic needs and at high risk of gender- in major policy documents, but none has both diagnosed the based violence (GBV). In both Mozambique and Madagascar, issues in detail, and proposed targeted solutions. It is crucial women and girls have been harassed, abused, and exploited in to include vulnerable groups in policy objectives and use the context of violence and displacement. disaggregated indicators. People affected by climate change may also choose to migrate. The concept of “just transitions,” which South Africa has If they can do so safely and deliberately, migration may be strongly embraced, provides a structured response to the an effective adaptation strategy. Distress migration, however, socioeconomic changes driven by climate change. First may put them at significant risk of abuse, social exclusion, conceived by the labor movement, it has been widely adopted and deprivation on their journey and at their destination. In as a framing for inclusive climate action that prioritizes Southern and Eastern Africa, many migrants move from workers, communities, and vulnerable groups. It has three rural to urban areas, and they often find the cities lack the pillars: distributive, procedural, and restorative justice. infrastructure and services they need, especially safe housing. Achieving a just transition is a challenge for any country, For policy and practice, all this means that it is important to: and even more so for those struggling with high levels of social vulnerability, fragility, environmental degradation, 1. Recognize the complex interplay of climate change, and escalating climate change impacts. However, if fragility, conflict, and violence upfront. justice is not deliberately addressed, climate action may unintentionally exacerbate vulnerability. 2. Engage gender and GBV experts in assessing risks and needs on the ground, and seek their support to design Indeed, a key way to build resilience is to empower local gender-responsive programs and provide survivor- communities and support their efforts. People who have centered care. lived in poverty or faced difficult climatic conditions for a long time may have significant resilience and valuable adaptive 3. Recognize that migration is a key adaptation strategy strategies. Knowledge, skills, and practices passed down for people struggling to cope with climate change across generations, including among Indigenous Peoples, may impacts, and proactively work to support safe and play a key role in confronting environmental challenges—but orderly migration. communities are often constrained by a lack of resources. Conduct rigorous environmental and social assessments for all projects, including those to generate global mitigation goods, and raise the bar from compensation, to benefit-sharing. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa ix International organizations, experts, and funders, including reviewed research. They can then use this knowledge with the World Bank, have embraced the concept of “locally led governments to: adaptation,” with a strong emphasis on local decision making, patient and predictable funding, flexibility, and collaborative 1. Assess how physical climate change impacts will action. Community forestry, meanwhile, is seen as a manifest in each social and political context; promising mechanism for ensuring that forest-dependent people, including Indigenous groups, benefit from REDD+ 2. Identify opportunities for a just transition and challenges projects and are not adversely affected. that may arise; and Key implications for policy and practice include: 3. Include local governance systems in climate-focused institutional assessments. 1. Ground national climate policies, strategies, and plans in a comprehensive analysis of social vulnerability as well To further strengthen the knowledge base, it is important as physical climate risks, including a mapping of all the to engage regularly with academic and other experts, and key stakeholders. to monitor in real time the links between climate impacts and changes in political, economic, and conflict conditions. 2. Ensure that national climate policies, strategies, and Close engagement with country teams can help ensure plans address social vulnerability through targeted that knowledge products can contribute meaningfully to interventions, with disaggregated indicators and investment planning and policy making. dedicated financing. 2. Integrate social vulnerability analysis in country 3. Pursue just transitions both in climate change mitigation engagement and project design and in adaptation. A robust knowledge base is crucial for effective country 4. Put local communities at the center of climate action, engagement on climate change and broader development recognizing them not just as beneficiaries of projects, but objectives—but the key is to translate it into action. as partners who deserve to co-create solutions to their Governments and their development partners can do so by: own climate challenges. 1. Prioritizing the needs of socially vulnerable populations 5. Target climate finance and support services to reduce and areas that are highly exposed to climate hazards, barriers faced by marginalized groups especially when these overlap; From knowledge to development 2. Applying climate-adaptation and development filters to the practice design of all local investments to ensure that adaptation and development cost-benefit analysis is carried out; The findings of this report have important implications for climate and development finance institutions, including the 3. Meaningfully engaging local communities in the design World Bank, as governments need strong support to better and implementation of climate activities; understand and address social vulnerability. Three priorities emerge from the analysis: 4. Ensuring that social safety net programs are responsive not only to deepening poverty due to climate change, 1. Strengthen the knowledge base on social vulnerability but also to social exclusion, vulnerabilities, and erosion of adaptive capacity; Research for the CCDRs and for this report revealed large knowledge and data gaps and significant differences in 5. Preemptively assessing the social and political consequences the amount and quality of evidence available to analyze of climate impacts to identify key social trends that might social vulnerability across Southern and Eastern Africa. deepen in future, such as distress migration; and Development partners play a key role in helping countries build a robust evidence base, including both country-specific 6. Strengthening climate and ecological education and and comparative analyses and grounded in the latest peer- awareness. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies x 3. Prioritize social inclusion in the pursuit of global public transition and how they can instead receive development mitigation good and poverty alleviation benefits through the projects; Vulnerable communities in Southern and Eastern Africa have 2. Strengthen the capacity of countries in the region to access contributed minimally to climate change, but in many cases, and receive carbon market funds, while ensuring this they face significant adverse impacts from the pursuit of prioritizes financial returns to vulnerable communities; global public mitigation goods. Development partners can make a difference by engaging with governments to: 3. Close the financing gap and improve implementation of REDD+ programs; and 1. Ensure that projects involving global public mitigation goods have a strong social inclusion dimension, with 4. Support more effective governance of critical sectors, assessments of who might be negatively affected by the such as agriculture, mining, and forest management. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa xi 1. Introduction Climate change is increasingly evident across Southern These are all positive steps, but without a clear understanding and Eastern Africa: from rising temperatures, to shifting of how social vulnerability interacts with climate risks, they rainfall patterns, to more intense extreme weather events. may fail to protect the people who are least able to cope Most people in the region have been able to cope with the with or recover from climate shocks. Indeed, some climate impacts so far. But some, such as the victims of Cyclones investments could leave vulnerable groups worse off. Idai and Kenneth in 2019, have suffered catastrophes;1 many have faced dangerous floods and landslides; and This report draws on social vulnerability analyses produced some, such as farmers in Madagascar’s Grand Sud, have for Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) for been pushed to the brink of famine.2 eight countries—Botswana, Burundi, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, and If global temperatures continue to rise, from about 1.5°C South Africa—to distill insights for practitioners. It examines above pre-industrial levels today to 3°C later this century, how social vulnerability can put people in harm’s way or prevent climate models suggest that Southern and Eastern Africa them from finding safety; limit their access to resources for could heat even more, with the mean annual temperature adaptation; and constrain their agency and their voice. Poverty in Southern Africa projected to be 3.3°C higher than the is a key factor, but so are gender, age, (dis)ability, ethnicity, and 1995–2014 average.3 Dry areas are projected to become other common grounds for marginalization. drier, and the combined effect of precipitation changes and droughts will exacerbate drought risks. Tropical Through examples from the country analyses, cyclone intensity is also expected to increase. supplemented by additional research, this report shows how understanding social vulnerability can help policy makers Governments in the region recognize the threats posed by to prioritize among climate investments, design projects climate change and, in partnership with the World Bank, and programs to be more inclusive, and create tailored have begun making crucial investments to reduce climate initiatives that will not only enhance climate resilience, but risks and help their citizens enhance their own resilience. also make households and communities stronger overall. Many are also pursuing important opportunities for low- carbon growth, and most are working to reduce poverty It is important to stress that this is not meant to be a and raise living standards as well. comprehensive analysis of social vulnerability across Southern and Eastern Africa—or even in the eight countries that are the main focus.4 1 World Bank. 2019. “World Bank Injects $130 Million in Support of Recovery Efforts in Cyclone Affected Communities.” Press release. September 30. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/09/30/world-bank-injects-130-million-in-support-of-recovery- efforts-in-cyclones-affected-communities. 2 World Bank. 2023. “Restoring Dignity and Livelihoods in Madagascar’s Grand Sud.” Immersive news story. October 17. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/immersive-story/2023/10/17/restoring-dignity-livelihoods-in-madagascars-grand-sud. 3 Trisos, C.H. et al. 2022. “Africa.” In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by H.-O. Pörtner et al., 1285–1455. Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/. 4 In this report, “Southern and Eastern Africa” refers to a subset of the geographic area covered by the World Bank’s AFE administrative unit— in particular, Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, and South Africa. That is the geographic focus of the Social Sustainability and Inclusion (SSI) unit that produced the country analyses that underpin this report. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 1 Instead, the goal of this report is to provide practical, socioeconomic status and different aspects of people’s actionable insights for governments, World Bank teams, identity—such as age, gender, and indigeneity—affect and other development partners working to promote green, their climate vulnerability, and how climate change can resilient, and inclusive development in the region.5 Just as deepen existing disparities (Section 3). climate data and projections provide crucial information about climate hazards, a social vulnerability analysis can Recognizing that climate change impacts often have show who is at greatest risk of harm and what kinds of social and political consequences, Section 4 looks at the additional support would help them. Indeed, it may show complex links between climate change and migration, that, through targeted efforts to empower vulnerable conflict, and violence. Section 5 then examines the extent people and improve their lives overall, the potential for to which countries’ climate policies already address social severe harm from a given hazard can be minimized. vulnerability and social inclusion; how major climate initiatives in these countries have sought to ensure a In short, social inclusion and social resilience are central “just transition”; and barriers to and opportunities for the to effective climate action in the region. The report begins empowerment of local communities in climate action. with a brief overview of the key climate risks faced by Each thematic section includes a brief discussion of the eight countries of focus, accompanied by some basic policy and operational implications; Section 6 provides a socioeconomic data and novel analysis of how social exclusion summary of the key findings and recommendations for often overlaps with exposure to climate hazards (Section 2). country engagement and future research. Next, it delves deeper into the ways in which 5 World Bank. 2021. “Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Development (GRID).” Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36322. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 2 Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 3 2. Climate Hazards, Poverty, and Social Exclusion The World Bank launched the Country Climate and As will be discussed in greater depth later in this Development Report (CCDR) series in 2022 in recognition section, the indicators shown in Table 1 have significant of the urgent need to build climate resilience if the implications for how people in these 12 countries will objective of ending poverty on a livable planet is to be experience climate change and how much harm they met.6 The CCDRs—72 of which had been published as of could suffer. Lower-income countries have fewer resources November 2024, with several more to come—examine overall to meet their citizens’ needs, so people are not the current and projected climate risks faced by each only likelier to have low incomes themselves, but also to country and the implications for people and the economy, lack access to basic services, such as safe drinking water, and identify opportunities and priorities for green, hygienic sanitation, and electricity. Governments may also inclusive, and climate-resilient growth in line with national struggle to provide adequate health care, public education, development objectives. or transportation infrastructure. All these factors make people more vulnerable to climate shocks. Living in rural A key takeaway from the CCDRs to date is that climate areas and depending on agriculture, which is highly change poses significant risks to people all around the climate-sensitive, also puts people at greater risk. As world, with the potential to cause “long-term, irreversible, shown in Table 1, seven of the 12 countries have majority- and intergenerational harm.”7 The reports have highlighted rural populations—with Burundi at over 86 percent. serious climate hazards, from gradual but consequential changes in rainfall, temperatures, and seasonal patterns, to Another consequence of the region’s relative poverty sea-level rise, to more frequent and severe extreme weather is that most of the 12 countries have not contributed events such as heatwaves, droughts, torrential rains, floods, significantly to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions— and deadly tropical storms. They have also stressed that the cause of climate change. Between 1990 and 2021, poverty and social exclusion make people disproportionately South Africa, by far the largest emitter among the 12, vulnerable to climate impacts. In many cases, exposure to produced an estimated 14.49 billon metric tones (Gt) of climate hazards and social vulnerability coincide.8 carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), not counting emissions from land use, land conversion, and forest loss. That is As of 2024, the 12 countries in Southern and Eastern Africa less than half of Germany’s 29.63 Gt CO2e and less than that are the focus of this report were home to an estimated one-tenth the United States’ 200.5 Gt CO2e. The other 11 302 million people,9 including 109 million in the Democratic countries combined emitted a cumulative 6.09 Gt CO2e, Republic of Congo (DRC), but just 867,000 in Comoros including just 173.3 Mt CO2e from Burundi.10 and 130,000 in Seychelles. Within countries and across the region, there is a rich diversity of cultures, languages, and ethnicities. The countries also vary greatly in terms of their political systems, development levels, degree of urbanization, and economic structure. Table 1 provides an overview of key statistics that illustrate this diversity. 6 See https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/country-climate-development-reports. 7 World Bank Group. 2024. “People in a Changing Climate: From Vulnerability to Action – Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 72 Economies.” Washington, DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/42395. p. 6. 8 World Bank Group, 2024. 9 UN DESA. 2024. “World Population Prospects: The 2024 Revision.” New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. https://population.un.org/wpp/. Custom data obtained online. All numbers have been rounded and reflect median projections by UN DESA, not official population data. 10 See ClimateWatch data for cumulative GHG emissions, total excluding LUCF: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions [accessed 3 January, 2025]. Understanding Lessons Social in from CCDRs Vulnerability Southern and for more Effective Eastern Africa Climate Strategies 4 Table 1. Key statistics for 12 countries in Southern and Eastern Africa Population GDP per cap. % urban pop. % employed % employed (2024 est.) (2023, PPP) Income level (2020) agric. (2022) indust. (2022) Angola 37,885,850 $7,245 LMIC 66.8% 56% 6% Botswana 2,521,139 $13,846 UMIC 70.9% 18% 16% Burundi 14,047,786 $829 LIC 13.7% 85% 3% Comoros 866,628 $3,499 LMIC 29.4% 35% 15% DR Congo 109,276,265 $1,456 LIC 45.6% 56% 10% Eswatini 1,242,822 $10,132 LMIC 24.2% 13% 24% Lesotho 2,337,423 $2,596 LIC 29.0% 29% 35% Madagascar 31,964,956 $1,643 LIC 38.5% 70% 10% Mozambique 34,631,766 $1,512 LIC 37.1% 70% 9% Namibia 3,030,131 $10,106 UMIC 52.0% 22% 17% Seychelles 130,419 $29,469 HIC 57.5% NA NA South Africa 64,007,187 $13,690 LMIC 67.4% 19% 18% Notes: GDP per capita uses purchasing power parity (PPP) figures, in 2021 constant international dollars. Income level refers to the World Bank Group’s income classifications: UMIC=upper-middle-income, LMIC=lower-middle-income, LIC=low-income, HIC=high-income country. Sources: Population and urbanization: UN DESA, 2024, 2018; all else: World Bank.11 11 UN DESA, 2024. Custom data obtained online. UN DESA. 2018. “World Urbanization Prospects 2018.” New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/. GDP per capita (PPP, constant international $): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=AO-BW-BI-KM-CD-SZ-LS-MG-MZ-NA-SC-ZA. Country income classifications (FY2025): https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups. Employment in agriculture (% of total employment), using modeled International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=AO-BW-BI-KM-CD-SZ-LS-MG-MZ-NA-SC-ZA. Employment in industry (% of total employment), using modeled ILO estimates: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.IND.EMPL.ZS?locations=AO-BW-BI-KM-CD-SZ-LS-MG-MZ-NA-SC-ZA. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 5 It is important to note that several countries in the region are also large differences in topography that affect rainfall, have significant emissions from land use change and forest temperatures, and flood and landslide risks, among others. loss—in particular the DRC, where emissions in this category totaled an estimated 15.32 Gt CO2e in 1990–2021.12 From As noted in the introduction, climate change is already 2001 to 2023, the DRC lost 19.7 million hectares of forest, evident in Southern and Eastern Africa,18 and significant or almost 10 percent of the country’s total tree cover as additional changes are expected in the coming decades, of 2000.13 This represents a major loss of natural wealth including further increases in mean temperatures, shifts in and vital ecosystem services, with both environmental and precipitation, and more frequent and/or intense extreme economic implications.14 weather events. Given the geographic diversity of the region, however, climate change impacts can vary significantly, even High rates of land conversion, deforestation, and forest within individual countries. There are also large uncertainties degradation in the DRC and other countries reflect the due to data gaps and, in some cases, limited research and widespread use of firewood and charcoal for cooking due to climate modeling to date. very low levels of modern energy access,15 as well as the large shares of their population who still live in rural areas and rely The World Bank has now produced CCDRs covering eight on agriculture for their livelihoods. As documented in Burundi, countries in the region, with analyses of historical climate for example, population growth, combined with the effects data as well as climate modeling results: for Angola, of land degradation and climate change, can drive further Burundi, DRC, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa, and land conversion—which, in turn, can adversely affect land (forthcoming) Botswana and Namibia. To illustrate some of productivity and deepen climate vulnerability.16 the climate change impacts faced by the region, this section provides some examples. 2.1 Climate hazards in a geographically diverse region 2.1.1 Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns The 12 countries covered by this report span a wide range of climate regimes and ecosystems: from the equatorial In Angola, for example, mean annual temperatures have risen rainforests of the Congo Basin, to the subtropical coastal by an average of 0.2°C per decade since 1951, or a cumulative ecosystems of Madagascar and Mozambique, to the 1.4°C.19 There have been changes in rainfall as well, but with savannas that span large parts of South Africa, Botswana, large variations across the country and over the decades; the and Namibia, to the Kalahari Desert. As of 2020, about 56 South has experienced some severe droughts. In a moderate percent of the DRC was covered by forests—1.26 million km2, emissions scenario (RCP4.5), the mean annual temperature in two-thirds of which was primary forest.17 Angola also has Angola is projected to be 1–1.5°C higher in 2020–2040 than significant forest cover, as does Mozambique, while tree cover the 1981–2010 average, and by 2040–2060, 1.5–2°C warmer. is much sparser in other countries, reflecting both natural This could significantly affect water availability, drought ecosystems and the effects of human settlements. There severity, and, in some areas, extreme heat. 12 See ClimateWatch data for cumulative GHG emissions, land-use change and forestry: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions [accessed 3 January, 2025]. 13 See Global Forest Watch country profile: https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/COD/ [accessed 3 January 2025]. 14 World Bank Group. 2023. “Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Country Climate and Development Report.” CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40599. 15 World Bank. 2022. “In the Democratic Republic of Congo, People-Centered Solutions to Forest Degradation.” Feature story. November 15. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/11/15/in-the-democratic-republic-of-congo-people-centered-solutions-to-forest-degradation. 16 Tall, Arame et al. 2022. “Tackling Climate Change, Land Degradation and Fragility: Diagnosing Drivers of Climate and Environmental Fragility in Burundi’s Colline Landscapes – Towards a Multi-Sector Investment Plan to Scale up Climate Resilience.” Advisory Services and Analytics Report. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099930006302237433/P17682007885e007 80b1cc093a09277df1a. 17 See Global Forest Watch country profile: https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/COD/?category=land-cover. 18 Trisos et al., 2022, “Africa.” 19 World Bank Group. 2022. “Angola Country Climate and Development Report.” CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/38361. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 6 In Madagascar, meanwhile, the National Meteorological In contrast, the DRC has seen far less warming to date, Service has found that between 1961 and 2018, mean about 0.6°C since 1975, though temperatures were nearly as annual temperatures rose by 0.75–1.6°C, while annual high in the first decades of the 20th century.25 Rainfall has rainfall declined by 15–20 percent—though there were large varied over the decades and slightly increased over the past differences across regions.20 For example, the southwest 30 years. By 2060–2080, in a moderate emissions scenario coast, the continental south and southwest, and the central (RCP4.5), the mean annual temperature is projected to rise highlands warmed by 0.3°C per decade, while the east coast by 1–1.5°C, while rainfall projections are highly uncertain, and northwest warmed by 0.23°C, and the north by less with the median projections showing little change at all.26 than 0.15°C. Large interannual variability makes it difficult to However, rainfall is becoming more variable within seasons, discern trends, particularly for rain, but overall, dry seasons with more extreme precipitation expected: both more days of are getting longer, and more intense torrential rains have heavy downpours during the rainy season, and a potential for been observed. The semi-arid southwest has been particularly longer‑lasting dry spells.27 hard-hit, experiencing severe prolonged droughts that caused the near-collapse of agricultural production and have led to 2.1.2 More intense extreme widespread food insecurity and hunger. weather events Since the 1970s, Botswana has seen average mean surface Extreme weather is common in many parts of Southern temperatures increase by about 1.25°C, with some regions and Eastern Africa—particularly extreme heat, droughts, warming by about 1.4°C.21 Rising temperatures are affecting crop and torrential rains (often accompanied by floods and/or yields and livestock grazing, especially in regions such as Palapye landslides). In some contexts, the effects can be catastrophic. and Kgalagadi-North.22 Namibia, meanwhile, one of the most For example, in the very hilly Burundi, severe floods and arid places in Africa, with 92 percent of its land area defined as landslides are significant drivers of internal displacement,28 very arid, arid, or semi-arid, has hot and dry climate with sparse and in several countries, droughts have led to humanitarian and erratic rainfall and significant climate variability.23 The mean crises as food supplies dwindled.29 Tropical cyclones pose an annual temperature rose by more than 1°C from 1975 to 2015, additional, severe threat to coastal countries, in particular and rainfall has declined, particularly during the drier months Madagascar and Mozambique. Both have been struck by of the year. By 2060–2080, in a moderate emissions scenario several powerful cyclones in the past two decades that have (RCP4.5), Namibia is projected to warm by another 1.5–2°C, while caused deaths, severe injuries, and direct damage to housing rainfall projections are highly uncertain.24 and public infrastructure; disrupted economic activities; and sometimes led to disease outbreaks. Multiple heavy rainfall 20 Météo Madagascar. 2023. “Tendances Climatiques Observées et Futurs Changements Climatiques à Madagascar 2023.” La Réunion: Direction Générale de la Météorologie de Madagascar & Direction Interrégionales de la Météo-France pour l’Océan Indien. See also World Bank Group. 2024. “Madagascar Country Climate and Development Report.” CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/42263. 21 See country profile on the World Bank’s Climate Knowledge Portal: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/botswana /trends-variability-historical. 22 Akinyemi, F.O. 2017. “Climate Change and Variability in Semiarid Palapye, Eastern Botswana: An Assessment from Smallholder Farmers’ Perspective,” July. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0040.1. Mabula, S. and A.A. Abdeta. 2020. “Role of Farmer’s Indigenous Knowledge for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change in Kgalagadi- North District, Botswana.” Botswana Journal of Agriculture and Applied Sciences 14 (1): 28–37. 23 See country profile on the World Bank’s Climate Knowledge Portal: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/namibia /climate-data-historical. 24 See country profile on the World Bank’s Climate Knowledge Portal: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/namibia /climate-data-projections. 25 See country profile on the World Bank’s Climate Knowledge Portal: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/congo-dem-rep /climate-data-historical. 26 See country profile on the World Bank’s Climate Knowledge Portal: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/congo-dem-rep /climate-data-projections. 27 World Bank Group, 2023, “Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Country Climate and Development Report.” 28 Tall, Arame et al., 2022, “Tackling Climate Change, Land Degradation and Fragility: Diagnosing Drivers of Climate and Environmental Fragility in Burundi’s Colline Landscapes – Towards a Multi-Sector Investment Plan to Scale up Climate Resilience.” 29 See, e.g., World Bank Group, 2024, “Madagascar Country Climate and Development Report”; 2022, “Angola Country Climate and Development Report.” Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 7 and cyclone events can also occur in sequence, compounding of individual rainfall events, contributing to more frequent their impacts, as occurred in both countries with storms Ana flooding,36 with disproportionate impacts on residents of and Batsirai in early 2022.30 With climate change, cyclones in Namibia’s informal settlements.37 These changes in extreme the southwestern Indian Ocean are expected to become more weather events are having profound impacts on agriculture, intense, so the risk of catastrophic damage when storms water resources, ecosystems, and human settlements in both make landfall will be greater.31 countries, particularly affecting vulnerable communities and exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges.38 In the wider marine environment, especially in the Mozambique Channel that both countries share, heatwaves have also 2.2 From exposure to climate become more common, already impacting coral and other hazards, to vulnerability marine life; notably, the 2017 heatwave in the Channel caused significant coral dieback.32 As the ocean continues to warm As noted at the start of this section, the countries and suffer more frequent heatwaves due to increased CO 2 of Southern and Eastern Africa vary greatly in their sequestration and acidity, warmer average temperatures and incomes, economic structures, governance, and levels marine heatwaves are expected to cause increasing damage of development. Those factors can significantly affect to marine life and fishery resources.33 On land, prolonged their citizens’ vulnerability to the climate change impacts terrestrial heatwaves and drought are expected to rise discussed above—that is, how much they are likely to be significantly, especially in the south and west of Madagascar.34 harmed by climate hazards. Namibia and Botswana, meanwhile, face increasingly severe To a great extent, this is intuitive: Subsistence farmers with no drought risks. 35 Namibia’s 2019 drought was the worst in access to irrigation are likelier to go hungry during a drought 90 years, with the lowest recorded rainfall in Windhoek than farmers who can irrigate, or factory workers who buy since 1891. Even as overall rainfall is decreasing, however, their food at the market. Families living in cinderblock houses, both countries are also seeing an increase in the intensity safely inland, are less likely to have their homes swept away 30 Otto, F.E.L. et al. 2022. “Climate Change Increased Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones Hitting Highly Vulnerable Communities in Madagascar, Mozambique & Malawi.” World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased- rainfall-associated-with-tropical-cyclones-hitting-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-madagascar-mozambique-malawi/. 31 Trisos et al., 2022, “Africa.” 32 Mawren, D., J. Hermes, and C.J.C. Reason. 2022. “Marine Heatwaves in the Mozambique Channel.” Climate Dynamics 58 (1): 305–27. doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05909-3. 33 Qiu, Z. et al. 2021. “Evaluation and Projection of Global Marine Heatwaves Based on CMIP6 Models.” Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 194 (December): 104998. doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2021.104998. Cheung, W.W.L. et al. 2021. “Marine High Temperature Extremes Amplify the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish and Fisheries.” Science Advances 7 (40): eabh0895. doi:10.1126/sciadv.abh0895. Lam, V.W.Y. et al. 2020. “Climate Change, Tropical Fisheries and Prospects for Sustainable Development.” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 1 (9): 440–54. doi:10.1038/s43017-020-0071-9. 34 Tomalka, J. et al. 2020. “Climate Risk Profile: Madagascar.” Climate Risk Profiles for Sub-Saharan Africa Series. Bonn: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_25254. 35 Liu, X. and J. Zhou. 2021. “Assessment of the Continuous Extreme Drought Events in Namibia during the Last Decade.” Water 13 (20): 2942. doi:10.3390/w13202942. Moses, O., R.C. Blamey, and C.J.C. Reason. 2023. “Drought Metrics and Temperature Extremes over the Okavango River Basin, Southern Africa, and Links with the Botswana High.” International Journal of Climatology 43 (14): 6463–83. doi:10.1002/joc.8215. 36 Akinyemi, F.O. and B.J. Abiodun. 2019. “Potential Impacts of Global Warming Levels 1.5 °C and above on Climate Extremes in Botswana.” Climatic Change 154 (3): 387–400. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02446-1. New, M. and B. Bosworth. 2018. “What Global Warming of 1.5°C and Higher Means for Botswana and Namibia.” Policy Commons (blog), October 19. https://policycommons.net/artifacts/1443722/what-global-warming-of-15degc-and-higher-means-for-botswana-and-namibia/2075455/. 37 Kapuka, A. and T. Hlásny. 2020. “Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Namibia: A District-Based Analysis.” Sustainability 12 (12): 4910. doi:10.3390/su12124910. 38 Mugari, E. et al. 2019. “Perceptions of Ecosystem Services Provision Performance in the Face of Climate Change among Communities in Bobirwa Sub-District, Botswana.” International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 11 (2): 265–88. doi:10.1108/IJCCSM-09-2017-0178. Kapuka and Hlásny, 2020, “Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Namibia: A District-Based Analysis.” Wijesinghe, A. and J.P.R. Thorn. 2021. “Governance of Urban Green Infrastructure in Informal Settlements of Windhoek, Namibia.” Sustainability 13 (16): 8937. doi:10.3390/su13168937. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 8 by a flood or storm than people living in shacks near the water. affect both her sensitivity—whether she will be in harm’s Dirt roads are likelier to become impassable after torrential way—and her capacity to adapt and stay safe.41 rains than well-engineered paved roads. In other words, socioeconomic circumstances play a crucial For many years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate role in determining how vulnerable people are to climate Change (IPCC) synthesized this logic into a definition of change. Even in a single place, exposed to the same climate vulnerability as a function of three factors: exposure, hazard, people will be affected differently, depending on sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure in this context their socially constructed position. This is why disaster risk meant the severity of the climate change impacts faced (e.g., reduction (DRR) experts have long stressed the importance whether rainfall might decline by 1 or 25 percent). Sensitivity of understanding social vulnerability in order to manage risks indicated whether someone stood to be affected by that more effectively.42 In this context, it is also crucial to recognize impact; for example, farmers would be sensitive to drought, disparities within societies, both across social groups and but many others might not be. Adaptive capacity referred to within them (e.g. between women and men). Inequality is whether someone had the means and ability to avoid harm— deeply relevant to any analysis of climate vulnerability. for instance, by installing an irrigation system, finding a new livelihood, or moving to a less arid place. For national governments, a key takeaway from the adaptation and vulnerability literature is that what Since its landmark 2012 report on managing the risks of determines whether their citizens are highly vulnerable to extreme events and disaster risks,39 however, the IPCC has climate change is not the severity of the climate projections, clearly distinguished between climate hazards—the physical but conditions on the ground. This means that even countries impacts—and vulnerability, stressing that the latter is in no facing what may seem like limited climate change impacts way a function of the former. In the Sixth Assessment Report, can still be badly affected by climate change if societal vulnerability is defined as “the propensity or predisposition challenges strongly constrain people’s ability to cope with to be adversely affected,” which “encompasses a variety of even relatively small impacts. Those impacts, in turn, may concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility have serious ripple effects through an already stressed to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.”40 society and economy. What this means is that whether a woman in Maputo, for The DRC is an example of this dynamic. As discussed above, example, is vulnerable to climate change is not a function of the country has experienced less warming than others how much temperatures are projected to rise, how intense in the region, has not seen significant changes in rainfall, tropical cyclones are expected to become, or how much the and—due to its inland location—is shielded from the shocks sea level is expected to rise. Instead, it is a function of the of tropical cyclones. However, even relatively minor events, context in which she lives: her relative wealth, her livelihood, such as a moderate flood or damage to a seasonal harvest, the quality of her housing, her family situation and social could have significant negative social and economic impacts network, the quality of the infrastructure and services to due to the high levels of social vulnerability. In other words, which she has access, and the effectiveness of the institutions DRC’s context of extreme poverty, armed conflict, and she depends on for her safety and well-being. Those factors weak governance and infrastructure is likely to amplify the 39 IPCC. 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by C.B. Field et al. Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. https://archive.ipcc.ch/report/srex/. 40 IPCC. 2022. “Annex II: Glossary.” In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by H.-O. Pörtner et al., 2897–2930. Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781009325844.029. p. 2927. 41 This is a simplified explanation of well-established concepts in the adaptation and vulnerability literature. See, e.g.: Schipper, E.L.F. et al. 2016. “Linking Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change and Development.” International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment 7 (2): 216–28. doi:10.1108/IJDRBE-03-2015-0014. Schipper, E.L.F. 2020. “Maladaptation: When Adaptation to Climate Change Goes Very Wrong.” One Earth 3 (4): 409–14. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.09.014. Eriksen, S. et al. 2021. “Adaptation Interventions and Their Effect on Vulnerability in Developing Countries: Help, Hindrance or Irrelevance?” World Development 141 (May): 105383. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105383. 42 Schipper et al., 2016, “Linking Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change and Development.” Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 9 impacts of climate shocks that other countries might be into account. It does consider some projected physical able to withstand. That is the difference between exposure impacts, such as changes in annual runoff (crucial for water and vulnerability. Conflating these two distinct factors risks supplies), but also key measures of food and water (in) “climate essentialism,” where climate change is blamed for security, housing, public health, and infrastructure. In gauging human suffering that is actually driven mainly by existing countries’ “readiness” to adapt to climate change, it considers patterns of poverty, exclusion and conflict. governance, social inequality, education, and other factors. Table 2 presents the latest ND-GAIN rankings and vulnerability The ND-GAIN Index, which is widely used to assess climate scores for the 12 countries covered by this report, along with vulnerability at the country level, takes that knowledge complementary data on poverty, deprivation, and inequality. Table 2. Poverty, deprivation, and vulnerability in 12 countries in Southern and Eastern Africa Extreme Multidimensional Human Dev. 2022 ND-GAIN ND-GAIN Gini index poverty poverty Index rank vuln. score Angola 51.3 31.1% 51.1% 0.591 160 0.509 Botswana 53.3 15.4% 17.2% 0.708 86 0.434 Burundi 37.5 62.1% 75.1% 0.420 174 0.554 Comoros 45.3 18.6% 37.3% 0.586 167 0.546 DR Congo 44.7 78.9% 64.5% 0.481 184 0.562 Eswatini 54.6 36.1% 19.2% 0.610 130 0.458 Lesotho 44.9 32.4% 19.6% 0.521 138 0.481 Madagascar 42.6 80.7% 68.4% 0.487 178 0.559 Mozambique 50.3 74.5% 61.9% 0.461 153 0.479 Namibia 59.1 15.6% 40.9% 0.610 107 0.460 Seychelles 32.1 0.5% 0.9% 0.802 75 0.437 South Africa 63.0 20.5% 6.3% 0.717 95 0.383 Notes: Due to significant gaps in data availability, the numbers for the Gini index, the extreme poverty rate, and the multidimensional poverty rate are not all for the same year, but they are represent the most recent data available. The Gini index is a measure of inequality, with higher scores indicating greater inequality. The extreme poverty ratio is based on the World Bank’s extreme poverty line of $2.15 per day, (2017 PPP). The multidimensional poverty rate is calculated by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) based on several measures of deprivation with regard to health, education, and standards of living. The Human Development Index (HDI) combines measures of health, education, and poverty or wealth. The ND-GAIN rankings cover a total of 187 countries; a higher number indicates higher vulnerability and lower adaptive capacity. Sources: Gini index and extreme poverty: World Bank; multidimensional poverty and HDI: UNDP, 2024; ND-GAIN scores: Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative.43 43 Gini index: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=AO-BW-BI-KM-CD-SZ-LS-MG-MZ-NA-SC-ZA. Poverty headcount ratio at $2.15 a day (2017 PPP) (% of population): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator /SI.POV.DDAY?locations=AO-BW-BI-KM-CD-SZ-LS-MG-MZ-NA-SC-ZA. UNDP. 2024. “Human Development Report 2023/2024 – Breaking the Gridlock: Reimagining Cooperation in a Polarized World.” New York: United Nations Development Programme. https://hdr.undp.org/content/human-development-report-2023-24. ND-GAIN Index: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 10 (SRD) grant in response to natural disasters, the larger social 2.2.1 Mapping social vulnerability protection and health systems are currently inequitable and and exposure to major climate do not adequately incorporate climate adaptation measures hazards to protect human health and vulnerable livelihoods in the face of increasing climate shocks.”45 The fact that climate vulnerability is not driven by the severity of climate hazards does not mean that exposure In order to identify hotspots of social vulnerability and and social vulnerability do not interact. Indeed, analyses for compare them with areas that are highly exposed to climate CCDRs to date have often found overlaps between areas with hazards in Southern and Eastern Africa, a multidimensional high exposure to climate hazards, and areas with high levels exclusion (MDE) analysis was conducted. MDE assessments of poverty and deprivation.44 There are two main reasons for work with an index encompassing a range of indicators this: First, people who are poor and/or marginalized often of exclusion. The indicators fall into three domains— have no choice but to live on and/or cultivate marginal land, empowerment, voice and accountability; resilience and such as steep slopes and floodplains. Second, as discussed cohesion; and economic inclusion—and are quantified using further in Section 4, when vulnerable people experience existing datasets.46 The results were then applied to maps to climate shocks, they are likely to struggle to recover and may show how social exclusion, and by proxy social vulnerability, is be driven into deeper poverty and deprivation. distributed across each country. The South Africa CCDR, for example, notes: “Climate The next step of the analysis is to overlay the mapping of change impacts are unfair: poor households are generally social exclusion with the mapping of exposure to climate more exposed to air, water, and soil pollution and to rising hazards. The results show both where exposure to climate temperatures, uneven rainfall, and other extreme weather change impacts may have particularly severe effects due to events. In addition, poor households rely on low-quality public underlying social vulnerability, and where climate shocks and health services and have less financial resources to cope with social vulnerability might interact to drive people into deeper damages. Although the Social Assistance Act has twice been levels of poverty and deprivation. Figure 1 shows the results amended (2020 and 2022) to use the Social Relief of Distress for five countries in the region. 44 World Bank Group, 2024, “People in a Changing Climate: From Vulnerability to Action – Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 72 Economies.” 45 World Bank Group. 2022. “South Africa Country Climate and Development Report.” CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/38216. 46 Given the difference in data availability against the indicators, the rates of exclusion are not comparable across countries but give an outline of relatively exclusion against an established threshold within countries. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 11 Figure 1. Mapping multidimensional exclusion with changes in rainfall and temperature Spatial Distribution of Climate Vulnerability: Overlay of Climate Vulnerability: Overlay of Multidimensional Exclusion MDE with anomaly in precipitation MDE with anomaly in temperature Botswana Burundi Comoros Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 12 Figure 1. Mapping multidimensional exclusion with changes in rainfall and temperature Spatial Distribution of Climate Vulnerability: Overlay of Climate Vulnerability: Overlay of Multidimensional Exclusion MDE with anomaly in precipitation MDE with anomaly in temperature Madagascar Namibia Source: World Bank. Note: No analysis was conducted for DRC due to technical limitations in cartographic data availability and processing. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 13 It is important to note that multidimensional exclusion differences in exclusion across islands, with Mwali and Ndzuwani is a different, but complementary, metric of social experiencing exclusion rates higher than 40 percent, while vulnerability than poverty. While poverty metrics assess Ngazidja (excluding Moroni) has a lower rate of 25 percent. material deprivation based on consumption, the analysis of multidimensional exclusion looks at degrees of participation The strong correlation between areas of social exclusion and in economic, social, and political life and access to assets areas of highest climate exposure suggests a serious risk that that bolster well-being and development. These dynamics not only will climate hazards be most severe in the areas least fundamentally underpin people’s climate sensitivity, adaptive equipped to withstand them, but also that climate change capacity, and resilience to climate shocks. could further exacerbate underlying social vulnerabilities, hindering development and poverty reduction. Assessing levels of social exclusion matters in determining social vulnerability because it indicates how well people are 2.3 Implications for policy and relationally positioned to cope and recover. It also leads to operational responses different types of targeted support, because the things that are keeping people poor may not be the same things that are The analysis presented in this section highlights the keeping them excluded. Supporting people’s civic participation importance of avoiding climate essentialism when assessing or building responsive institutions, for example, may be as the impacts of climate change across Southern and Eastern important for resilience and adaptive capacity as improving Africa and identifying appropriate measures to mitigate their material circumstances. current and future climate risks. As the maps in Figure 1 show, in countries in Southern and Physical climate hazards are clearly relevant to adaptation and Eastern Africa, regions with high levels of multidimensional broader development planning, but without consideration of exclusion are frequently also highly exposed to climate the social, economic, cultural, and political context, causal links hazards such as rising temperatures, extended dry periods, may be misunderstood. This could result in inadequate policy and increased precipitation anomalies. In Madagascar, 88 and operational responses, as well as missed opportunities to percent of the population experiences multidimensional build climate resilience through interventions that may cost exclusion, and southern regions such as Vakinankaratra, less than those targeting physical hazards alone. Androy, and Atsimo Atsinanana, where exclusion rates exceed 95 percent, are also among the most exposed to rising Given how small a role most of these countries play in driving temperatures and prolonged dry spells. climate change, it is also important for governments to recognize that while they cannot significantly affect global Similarly, in Namibia, provinces such as Oshikoto, Kavango, greenhouse gas emissions, they can significantly reduce their and Omaheke, with exclusion rates reaching as high as 94 citizens’ vulnerability, with benefits for overall development, percent, are exposed to significant climate anomalies, including too. In country engagement and project planning, it is temperature extremes and irregular precipitation. In DRC, important to ensure that: regions such as Kasai, with the highest levels of exclusion, also face severe climate hazards, such as drought and flooding, 1. Analyses of climate hazards are complemented by which compound the challenges of poor infrastructure and equally robust analyses of social vulnerability and social services. In South Africa, provinces such as Limpopo and North exclusion; and West, where 82 percent of the population is excluded, are also projected to experience severe climate impacts, including rising 2. Project design is grounded in that dual understanding, temperatures and more consecutive dry days. engaging with governments to identify interventions that address the main drivers of climate vulnerability, Botswana’s Ngamiland and Chobe districts, with exclusion prioritize inclusion, and proactively mitigate risks rates exceeding 80 percent, face similar climate challenges, arising from the social, economic, cultural, and with significant anomalies in temperature and precipitation. political context. In Burundi, provinces such as Muyinga, Bubanza, and Kirundo, where exclusion rates are above 80 percent, are also among the What follows is an example of a projects that embodies most vulnerable to climate impacts, particularly in agriculture- this approach. dependent areas. In Comoros, the MDE analysis shows large Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 14 Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 15 2.3.1 Holistic intervention to build climate resilience in Southern The Support to Resilient Livelihoods in the South of Madagascar Madagascar project follows a theory of change that climate resilience must be built both through support to In June 2021, as Southern Madagascar experienced its worst local institutions, better governance, and investments drought in four decades, with more than 1.14 million people food- in decentralized services for environmental protection, insecure and about 14,000 already in catastrophic conditions, agricultural innovation and adaptation, and resilient the head of the World Food Programme explicitly blamed the infrastructure.54 The project therefore equally invests in the crisis on climate change.47 Four months later, with conditions rollout of decentralized and participatory institutions for only worsening, the United Nations warned that the drought better governance and more inclusive roles for local people in “could spur the world’s first climate change famine.”48 Media planning their own climate adaptation, as well as technical outlets around the world echoed that assessment, with one adaptation solutions such as drought-resilient agriculture and headline claiming it was “solely caused by global warming.”49 improving water resource management. In reality, subsequent scientific analyses found, climate change The project was approved in 2020 and received US$100 appears to be delaying the arrival of rain in the wet season—a million in additional financing—for a total of $200 million—to real and serious concern—but rainfall in the area also varies intensify efforts to address food security amid the drought.55 significantly.50 Moreover, one team noted, “[f]ood insecurity More than 920,000 people in 14 districts across three regions in Madagascar is not just driven by meteorological drought, in the South (Anosy, Androy, Atsimo Andrefana), which are but also a host of factors such as demographics, poverty, among the hardest-hit by the crisis, are expected to benefit. infrastructure, policy and non-climate shocks and stresses that modify the likelihood of a household becoming food insecure.”51 The project involves collaboration across four ministries and a broad range of investments. The most food-insecure Others have highlighted the debilitating legacy of colonialism households received immediate water and cash assistance, and continued exploitation of Madagascar by foreign plus support for adopting climate-smart agriculture. Village investors,52 as well as poor governance.53 It is clear that the water supplies are being upgraded, degraded ecosystems are country’s weakened social fabric has left people affected by being restored, and windbreaks are being installed. The project drought without strong coping mechanisms. also aims to improve community management of water and other natural resources that are fundamental to sustaining productive and resilient livelihoods. 47 United Nations. 2021. “Madagascar’s Hungry ‘Holding on for Dear Life’, WFP Chief Warns.” UN News, June 23. https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094632. 48 United Nations. 2021. “Madagascar: Severe Drought Could Spur World’s First Climate Change Famine.” UN News, October 21. https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/10/1103712. 49 Baker, A. 2021. “Climate, Not Conflict. Madagascar’s Famine Is the First in Modern History to Be Solely Caused by Global Warming.” TIME, July 20. https://time.com/6081919/famine-climate-change-madagascar/. 50 Rigden, A. et al. 2024. “Climate Change Linked to Drought in Southern Madagascar.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 7 (1): 1–9. doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00583-8. Harrington, L.J. et al. 2022. “Limited Role of Climate Change in Extreme Low Rainfall Associated with Southern Madagascar Food Insecurity, 2019–21.” Environmental Research: Climate 1 (2): 021003. doi:10.1088/2752-5295/aca695. 51 Harrington et al., 2022, “Limited Role of Climate Change in Extreme Low Rainfall Associated with Southern Madagascar Food Insecurity, 2019–21.” p. 2. 52 Rice, S. 2022. “Madagascar’s Famine Is More than Climate Change.” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs (blog), January 24. https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2022/01/24/madagascars-famine-is-more-than-climate-change/. 53 The Economist. 2021. “Madagascar Is on the Brink of Famine.” September 2. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/madagascar-is-on-the-brink-of-famine/21804098. 54 See https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P171056. 55 World Bank. 2021. “World Bank Provides $100 Million to Protect Livelihoods and Improve Food Security in Southern Madagascar.” Press release. December 10. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/12/10/world-bank-provides-100-million-to- protect-livelihoods-and-improve-food-security-in-southern-madagascar. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 16 Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 17 3. The Many Layers of Social Vulnerability The maps in Figure 1 highlight the large variations in social Figure 2 presents country-level breakdowns of vulnerability that exist within countries. Poverty rates are multidimensional exclusion rates for five countries in the generally higher in rural areas, for example—and the gap is region: Botswana, Burundi, DRC, Madagascar, and Namibia. larger in sub-Saharan Africa than in any other region of the It shows that overall, women and girls are likelier than men world.56 Social vulnerability is often embedded in historical and boys to experience exclusion, and the same is true for power struggles, discrimination, and imbalances that drive rural residents relative to urban residents—with by far the systemic inequalities.57 Social and cultural norms can even largest difference among the latter in DRC. create large disparities within individual households, based on gender, age, or other factors. Figure 2. Multidimensional exclusion rates in five countries in Southern and Eastern Africa Burundi Madagascar DRC Namibia Botswana 25 50 75 Male Female Urban Rural Source: World Bank analyses for CCDRs. 56 World Bank. 2024. “Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis.” Washington, DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/42211. 57 Schipper, 2020, “Maladaptation: When Adaptation to Climate Change Goes Very Wrong.” Understanding Lessons Social in from CCDRs Vulnerability Southern and for more Effective Eastern Africa Climate Strategies 18 It is important to stress that these findings do not mean that any As shown in Figure 2 above, the MDE analysis shows urban–rural particular group is inherently vulnerable, or that all people within disparities in exclusion rates in all five countries examined, and a given group have the same experience. Vulnerability occurs due consistently high exclusion rates in rural areas. In Burundi, 73 to the social, economic, and political structures in which people percent of the rural population experiences multidimensional live, and the inequalities they create.58 Each person’s experience, exclusion, compared with 66 percent in urban areas. In Namibia, including the degree to which they are excluded, is shaped by their the rural exclusion rate is 80 percent, compared with 66 percent intersecting identities and relationships, which may compound in urban areas. The single largest urban–rural gap is in DRC, or mitigate vulnerabilities.59 For example, a person may belong to where the exclusion rate is 78 percent in rural areas, but just 19 a dominant ethnic group, but also be an unmarried mother in a percent in urban settings. In Madagascar, the urban exclusion society that marginalizes single women. Conversely, a poor rural rate is a very high 79 percent, and in rural areas, multidimensional community may be unexpectedly resilient because its members exclusion is near-universal: 96 percent. have good survival strategies and work closely together to get through times of hardship. This section begins by looking at Across the region, the prevalence of low-productivity, rainfed, differences in how rural and urban people experience poverty mostly subsistence agriculture on very small plots is a significant in Southern and Eastern Africa, then looks at the role of race, source of vulnerability in rural areas. In Burundi, for example, ethnicity and indigeneity; gender and sexuality; age and (dis) farmers cultivate an average of 0.5 hectares (ha) per household.61 ability; and conflict. It ends with a brief discussion of policy In arid Namibia, dependence on rainfed agriculture makes implications, as well as examples of approaches taken in the smallholders particularly vulnerable to unreliable rainfall, droughts, region to enhance the resilience of highly vulnerable groups. and floods.62 Established farming practices, cultural factors, and limited awareness of climate change deepen that vulnerability, 3.1 The rural poor as farmers may be hesitant to adopt new agricultural practices that could enhance their resilience. In regions such as the Zambezi People living in rural areas in the region are highly vulnerable to in Namibia, rural households in flood-prone areas face significant climate change for multiple reasons, including heavy dependence risks to their livelihoods and food security.63 on subsistence agriculture, weak access to institutions and services, low-quality roads and other infrastructure, and The vulnerability of rural communities in Botswana, particularly environmental degradation and biodiversity loss, which weaken smallholder farmers and pastoralists, is exacerbated by historical the ecosystem services they depend on. Extreme poverty is marginalization and eroding traditional structures. These widespread; indeed, half the people living on less than $2.15 per communities, comprising about 70 percent of the population day worldwide live in rural sub-Saharan Africa.60 Deep poverty in in areas such as the Limpopo Basin, are experiencing frequent rural parts of Southern and Eastern Africa is often accompanied droughts, changing rainfall patterns, and rising temperatures by multidimensional exclusion, as communities are isolated, and that severely affect their livelihoods.64 Smallholders are people lack the financial assets or access to credit they need to pursuing adaptation strategies such as growing more drought- improve their situation. resistant crops and modifying planting techniques, but they are constrained by limited resources and inconsistent support.65 58 Schipper, 2020. 59 Ayanlade, A. et al. 2023. “Complex Climate Change Risk and Emerging Directions for Vulnerability Research in Africa.” Climate Risk Management 40 (January): 100497. doi:10.1016/j.crm.2023.100497. 60 World Bank, 2024, “Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis.” 61 Baramburiye, J. et al. 2013. “Burundi.” In East African Agriculture and Climate Change A Comprehensive Analysis, edited by M. Waithaka et al., 0 ed., 55–88. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. doi:10.2499/9780896292055. 62 Angula, M.N. and M.B. Kaundjua. 2016. “The Changing Climate and Human Vulnerability in North-Central Namibia.” Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies 8 (2): 7 pages. doi:10.4102/jamba.v8i2.200. 63 Nyambe, J.M. and A. Belete. 2013. “Assessing Climate Risk to Improve Incomes of Rural Farming Households in the Caprivi Region, Namibia.” Global Journal of Science Frontier Research, Agriculture and Veterinary Sciences 13 (1): 4–10. 64 Mugari et al., 2019, “Perceptions of Ecosystem Services Provision Performance in the Face of Climate Change among Communities in Bobirwa Sub-District, Botswana.” 65 Akinyemi, 2017, “Climate Change and Variability in Semiarid Palapye, Eastern Botswana: An Assessment from Smallholder Farmers’ Perspective.” Sekelemani, A. et al. 2020. “Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Their Adaptation Strategies: The Case of Ngamiland East, Botswana.” Transactions of the Royal Society of South Africa 75 (2): 213–21. doi:10.1080/0035919X.2020.1748749. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 19 In some rural areas, such as in Botswana’s arid Kalahari necessities.68 This makes them highly vulnerable to climate region, land tenure reform has eroded traditional livestock change impacts on agriculture, particularly given the management systems and thus left people less resilient widespread reliance on rainfed subsistence farming. Many to climate change, underutilizing their valuable indigenous farmers lack both the knowledge and assets to adapt, and knowledge.66 While government interventions provide some may instead leave their land and seek employment elsewhere. relief, they often fall short in addressing long-term, systemic Climate change could thus thwart DRC’s ambitions to expand issues, highlighting the need for more nuanced, region-specific agricultural development, while also encouraging further human climate resilience strategies that integrate local wisdom, encroachment into forests, at the expense of wildlife and enhance resource access, and strengthen adaptive capacities natural ecosystems.69 Adaptive capacity is also constrained by across Botswana’s rural landscape.67 non-economic factors, such as the presence of armed groups and conflict, weak governance institutions, and low access to In DRC, the 2023 Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) information and new technologies.70 assessment found 55.1 percent of rural residents lived in severe monetary poverty, but 87 percent were in multidimensional In Madagascar, rural people’s vulnerability is exacerbated poverty, deprived, on average, of five or more of 10 basic by the lack of transportation infrastructure to connect rural 66 Dougill, A., E. Fraser, and M. Reed. 2010. “Anticipating Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Pastoral Systems: Using Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari.” Ecology and Society 15 (2). doi:10.5751/ES-03336-150217. 67 Mogomotsi, P.K., A. Sekelemani, and G.E.J. Mogomotsi. 2020. “Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of Small-Scale Farmers in Ngamiland East, Botswana.” Climatic Change 159 (3): 441–60. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02645-w. 68 OPHI. 2023. “Global MPI Country Briefing 2023: Congo, Democratic Republic of the (Sub-Saharan Africa).” Oxford, UK: Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. https://ophi.org.uk/media/45115/download. 69 USAID. 2018. “Climate Risk Profile: Democratic Republic of Congo.” U.S. Agency for International Development. https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/climate-risk-profile-democratic-republic-congo. 70 Bele, M.Y., D.J. Sonwa, and A.M. Tiani. 2014. “Local Communities Vulnerability to Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies in Bukavu in DR Congo.” The Journal of Environment & Development 23 (3): 331–57. doi:10.1177/1070496514536395. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 20 areas to markets, services, and critical needs such as food, frequently overwhelm drainage systems and damage water, and medication.71 Major roads are often unable to buildings and other infrastructure. Poor maintenance of withstand the impacts of heavy use, and extreme weather infrastructure such as dikes, drainage networks, and roads events cause severe damage, further disrupting connectivity. exacerbates these risks, as does the lack of effective solid Many populated areas have no roads at all. Even when goods waste management. Nationwide, 60 percent of urban are available, transportation costs increase prices, sometimes residents live in slums, and in the capital, 77 percent of forcing households to sell off productive assets such as land dwellings are informal.76 Rapid, unplanned growth makes it or cattle to be able to meet basic needs. difficult and costly for cities to close gaps in basic services and is exacerbating social disparities. In Antananarivo, 72 3.2 The urban poor percent of residents lack direct connections to drinking water supplies, and even fewer do in small and mid-sized cities. While urban residents in Southern and Eastern Africa are far less likely to live in extreme poverty, or to be deprived of basic In cities in Namibia, particularly Windhoek, people living in needs, than rural residents, urban poverty is still widespread. informal settlements are acutely vulnerable to climate change Research has shown that urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa impacts due to poverty, acute deprivation, limited access to has been accompanied by rising inequality,72 as many people essential services, high unemployment, and low-quality housing.77 who move to cities in search of economic opportunities Rapid growth in housing demand has outpaced urban planning, end up living in slums and stuck in poverty traps.73 In some housing development, and land tenure systems. As a result, about countries, such as South Africa, historical segregation 42 percent of households in Windhoek live in informal dwellings concentrated poverty on cities’ outskirts.74 that provide little defense against climate hazards.78 All this means that large and growing numbers of people in Inadequate drainage systems and flood control measures cities across Southern and Eastern Africa live in deep poverty, in high-poverty areas make them particularly susceptible deprived of decent housing, basic services such as electricity, to heavy rainfall and flash floods. Homes are often flooded, safe drinking water, and sanitation. Moreover, they are often causing displacement and significant damage.79 Flooding can disproportionately exposed to climate hazards because they disrupt informal businesses and employment, pushing already live on marginal land with inadequate infrastructure. vulnerable populations further into poverty and limiting their ability to recover from and adapt to future shocks. The lack In Madagascar, for example, 40 percent of people lived in of infrastructure and essential services further compounds urban areas as of 2022—about half of them in the fast- these challenges, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases growing Greater Antananarivo region.75 The urban built- and other health issues during floods and droughts.80 up land area exposed to flood risks has grown steadily over recent decades, and heavy rainfall and storm surges 71 World Bank Group, 2024, “Madagascar Country Climate and Development Report.” 72 Sulemana, I. et al. 2019. “Urbanization and Income Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Sustainable Cities and Society 48 (July): 101544. doi:10.1016/j.scs.2019.101544. Dossou, T.A.M. 2023. “Income Inequality in Africa: Exploring the Interaction Between Urbanization and Governance Quality.” Social Indicators Research 167 (1): 421–50. doi:10.1007/s11205-023-03120-x. 73 Janz, T. et al. 2023. “Leaving No One behind: Urban Poverty Traps in Sub-Saharan Africa. ” World Development 172 (December): 106388. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106388. 74 Turok, I. and J. Borel-Saladin. 2014. “Is Urbanisation in South Africa on a Sustainable Trajectory?” Development Southern Africa 31 (5): 675–91. doi:10.1080/0376835X.2014.937524. 75 World Bank Group, 2024, “Madagascar Country Climate and Development Report.” 76 World Bank. 2024. “Madagascar Urbanization Review: Leveraging Cities as Drivers of Growth and Structural Transformation.” Washington, DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/41220. 77 Sunde, T. 2024. “The Socio-Economic Impact of Poverty in Namibia: The Case Study of Three Informal Settlements in Windhoek.” Journal of Poverty, July. doi:10.1080/10875549.2024.2379770. 78 Wijesinghe and Thorn, 2021, “Governance of Urban Green Infrastructure in Informal Settlements of Windhoek, Namibia.” 79 Kaundjua, M.B., M. Angula, and S.T. Angombe. 2012. “Community Perceptions of Climate Change and Vanability Impacts in Oshana and Ohangwena Regions.” Journal for Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences 1 (1): 21–32. 80 Wijesinghe and Thorn, 2021, “Governance of Urban Green Infrastructure in Informal Settlements of Windhoek, Namibia.” Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 21 Mozambique was just about 37 percent urban as of 2020,81 tensions or marginalization, these patterns can result in but the urbanization that has occurred has been mainly exclusion from or limited access to resources, services, and informal, without adequate investment in infrastructure economic opportunities. or high-quality housing.82 As a result, 60 percent of urban residents live in self-built homes made from cheap materials In South Africa, the legacy of racial discrimination is that cannot withstand climate hazards such as heavy rains particularly visible, manifesting itself in many measures and cyclones. Conflict-related displacement has brought even of social vulnerability even three decades after the end more people into cities, especially in the north of the country. of apartheid.86 The Living Conditions Survey 2015 found Lack of formal land tenure discourages poor households from that Black Africans made up almost 95 percent of the upgrading their own homes to be more resilient, as they live in poor, and mixed-heritage coloured people, virtually all the constant fear of eviction. rest.87 The median income of Black African households was about 9 percent that of white households (and 54 In South Africa, meanwhile, a much wealthier, more percent that of coloured households).88 The 2023 General developed, and more urbanized country—with 67 percent of Household Survey found Black Africans made up 82 the population in urban areas as of 202083—urban poverty percent of the population, but almost 90 percent of those remains entrenched, even after significant efforts to upgrade receiving social assistance, and 94 percent of those less the townships to which Black residents were relegated for than a fourth-grade education. While about 10 percent generations.84 As in other countries in the region, urban housing of Black Africans still cooked with wood or charcoal, only and infrastructure development has been unable to keep up 2 percent of coloured households did, and virtually no with fast-growing demand, and informal settlements have whites. And while 91 percent of white households had proliferated on the urban periphery, where flood risks and other piped water inside their homes, only 36 percent of Black hazards are often acute.85 Inadequate governance, including African households did. risk management approaches that do not effectively engage and empower local residents, helps perpetuate vulnerability. Those disparities translate into large differences in vulnerability to climate hazards, from extreme heat, to 3.3 Race, ethnicity, and indigeneity drought, to floods.89 For example, the poor were by far the worst affected by major floods in KwaZulu-Natal and the Ethnic and racial minorities and Indigenous communities Eastern Cape in 2022, killed more than 400 people and are often particularly vulnerable to climate change due to damaged or destroyed at least 13,500 houses, including over established patterns of discrimination. Whether they are 4,000 in informal settlements.90 established in policy, or the lingering effects of historical 81 UN DESA, 2018, “World Urbanization Prospects 2018.” Custom data obtained online. 82 World Bank Group. 2023. “Mozambique Country Climate and Development Report.” CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40671. 83 UN DESA, 2018, “World Urbanization Prospects 2018.” Custom data obtained online. 84 CUT. 2021. “Seizing South Africa’s Urban Opportunity: Tackling Urban Poverty and Inequality through Decarbonisation and Resilience-Building.” Washington, DC, and London: Coalition for Urban Transitions. https://urbantransitions.global/en/publication/seizing-the-urban-opportunity/seizing-south-africas-urban-opportunity/. 85 Williams, D.S. et al. 2018. “Informal Settlements and Flooding: Identifying Strengths and Weaknesses in Local Governance for Water Management.” Water 10 (7): 871. doi:10.3390/w10070871. Fox, A., G. Ziervogel, and S. Scheba. 2023. “Strengthening Community-Based Adaptation for Urban Transformation: Managing Flood Risk in Informal Settlements in Cape Town.” Local Environment 28 (7): 837–51. doi:10.1080/13549839.2021.1923000. 86 World Bank Group, 2022, “South Africa Country Climate and Development Report.” 87 Statistics South Africa. 2018. “Subjective Poverty in South Africa: Findings of the Living Conditions Survey, 2008/2009 and 2014/2015.” Pretoria: Republic of South Africa. https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1854. 88 Koka, P. 2024. “Poverty and Inequality Statistics in South Africa.” Presentation to the National Council of Provinces, 27 August. Statistics South Africa. https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/Pages/2024/23-08-2024_NCOP_Three-sphere_Planning_Session /session1/Statistics_South_Africa_Patricia_Koka.pdf. 89 World Bank Group, 2022, “South Africa Country Climate and Development Report.” 90 Pinto, I. et al. 2022. “Climate Change-Exacerbated Rainfall Causing Devastating Flooding in Eastern South Africa.” World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-exacerbated-rainfall-causing-devastating-flooding-in-eastern-south-africa/. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 22 Indigenous Peoples in Namibia face significant climate compounded by displacement from their ancestral lands, vulnerabilities, exacerbated by historical marginalization and exploitation, and human rights violations. This has left the loss of traditional lands. The San, the largest Indigenous many without land, housing, or livelihoods opportunities and group in Namibia, live in extreme poverty, with about 70 with degraded cultural and spiritual practices. Nomadism percent depending on state-run food aid.91 Their literacy rate is increasingly common, which increases the potential is just about 20 percent, and only 15 percent have legal title for conflict with other communities and hinders efforts to the lands they occupy. Apartheid colonial rule played a to obtain land recognition.95 At the same time, they hold key role in creating those conditions: While most other ethnic valuable traditional knowledge and practices vital for climate groups were granted “homelands,” most of the San land was mitigation and adaptation. subsumed into commercial farms, other groups’ homelands, game reserves, or national parks.92 A 2013 study of Topnaar 3.4 Gender, sexuality, and age and Hai||om (a subset of San) communities found both were already facing significant threats to their traditional livelihood Globally and within Southern and Eastern Africa, women and activities, and the Hai||om especially found it difficult to adapt girls face a wide range of disadvantages—sometimes under due to their lack of land and forced dependency on food aid. the law, but often due to customary practices, social and The study also noted that the Indigenous groups had valuable cultural norms, and the legacy of historical discrimination. traditional knowledge that should not be wasted. Gender inequality has profound implications for climate vulnerability, as it results in disproportionate exposure to In Botswana, particularly in the Okavango Delta, communities climate hazards and other risks, heightened sensitivity, and have successfully used Indigenous weather forecasting reduced adaptive capacity.96 techniques to adapt to climate variability.93 However, the erosion of traditional knowledge due to displacement and Gaps in land ownership have been particularly well environmental changes poses a significant threat to adaptive documented. A 2018 World Bank analysis found that in 10 out capacity. Research has found that understanding the natural of 46 African countries reviewed, married women’s property phenomena that farmers tracked and used to guide their ownership was legally restricted, and several countries also decisions could help improve scientific weather forecasts, as disadvantaged women under inheritance laws.97 The study they could then be made more accessible. also found that in 28 sub-Saharan countries analyzed, men are about three times as likely as women to claim sole In DRC, Indigenous Peoples make up 1–3 percent of the ownership over property; women were much likelier to only population, 700,000 to 2 million altogether.94 Many are highly own property jointly with their spouse. dependent on forests and biodiversity, so they are deeply vulnerable to climate change impacts as well as deforestation Whether or not land ownership is shared, women are and environmental degradation. This vulnerability is less likely than men to control productive assets (and, by 91 Ombudsman Namibia. 2022. “Guide to Indigenous Peoples’ Rights in Namibia.” Windhoek. 92 Dieckmann, U. et al. 2013. “Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change in Africa: Report on Case Studies of Namibia’s Topnaar and Hai||om Communities.” Windhoek: Legal Assistance Centre. https://www.lac.org.na/projects/lead/Pdf/climate_change.pdf. 93 Kolawole, O.D. et al. 2016. “Climate Variability and Rural Livelihoods: How Households Perceive and Adapt to Climatic Shocks in the Okavango Delta, Botswana,” April. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0019.1. 94 World Bank Group, 2023, “Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Country Climate and Development Report.” 95 UNDP. 2020. “Climate Change Impacts on Indigenous Peoples of the DRC.” United Nations Development Programme. UNDP Climate Adaptation, August 5. https://www.adaptation-undp.org/climate-change-impacts-indigenous-peoples-drc. 96 See cross-chapter box “Gender, Climate Justice and Transformative Pathways” in Schipper, E.L.F. et al. 2022. “Climate Resilient Development Pathways.” In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by H.-O. Pörtner et al. Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/. UNFCCC. 2022. “Dimensions and Examples of the Gender-Differentiated Impacts of Climate Change, the Role of Women as Agents of Change and Opportunities for Women.” Synthesis report by the Secretariat, FCCC/SBI/2022/7. Bonn: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. https://unfccc.int/documents/494455. Awiti, A.O. 2022. “Climate Change and Gender in Africa: A Review of Impact and Gender-Responsive Solutions.” Frontiers in Climate 4 (June). doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.895950. 97 Lahoti, R., I. Gaddis, and W. Li. 2018. “Gender Gaps in Property Ownership in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Policy Research Working Paper No. 8573. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/30325. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 23 extension, to be able to access credit), or have input in sex work are common coping strategies for the food-insecure, decision-making processes, both within households and at the and there is a high incidence of gender-based violence and school community level.98 Social and cultural norms may also limit dropouts reported during periods of drought. women’s access to information and restrict their ability to get out of harm’s way during extreme events.99 In South Africa, women make up 60–80 percent of the agricultural (formal and informal) labor force, which is highly Women’s household responsibilities, which typically include exposed to climate risks.102 Disparities in land ownership and fetching water if it is not available on site, and collecting control over resources constrain their adaptive capacities, fuelwood when it is used for cooking, result in their being while gender norms disproportionately burden them with disproportionately affected by climate change impacts on those climate-sensitive responsibilities, such as water collection and resources.100 And when a drought makes it necessary to travel growing food for their household. Women who live in poorly longer distances to obtain water, for instance, this reduces serviced areas such as informal settlements and townships the time that women and girls have available for education have less access to credit, agricultural inputs, and extension or income-producing activities and increases their risk of services, as well as to climate decision-making structures experiencing gender-based violence on their journeys. Girls are that would enhance their adaptive capacity. also likelier than boys to drop out of school or marry early in the aftermath of a climate shock or the loss of agricultural In Mozambique, an estimated 80 percent of women workers were livelihoods, especially in areas with strong gender biases. employed in agriculture as of 2022,103 compared with 60 percent of male workers,104 so women’s livelihoods are disproportionately The multidimensional exclusion analyses conducted for sensitive to climate change. Women and girls also have CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa show that women higher illiteracy rates and are likelier to have their education are consistently more excluded than men. In Madagascar, disrupted. Female-headed households are disproportionately women are excluded at a rate of 90 percent, compared with likely to be poor and face food insecurity. Women are also 87 percent for men. The exclusion rate for older adults was disproportionately affected by disasters such as cyclones and by even higher, 93 percent. In Namibia, the exclusion rate for ongoing conflicts, with women and children making up about 80 women is 75 percent, and for men, 68 percent. In Botswana, percent of internally displaced persons.105 The incidence of sexual 75 percent of women and 71 percent of men experienced harassment, exploitation, and abuse is also high. multidimensional exclusion. The gap in South Africa was particularly large, with 73 percent of women excluded, Gender disparities and discrimination intersect with other compared with 62 percent of men. inequalities, resulting in particularly severe vulnerability among women and girls who also belong to marginalized In Madagascar’s Grand Sud, which recently experienced its worst communities. Indigenous women, for example, are often hailed drought in 40 years, leading to a crisis of food insecurity, women as protectors of natural resources and ecosystems, but they and girls were disproportionately affected.101 Early marriage and are not actually empowered to bring their knowledge and 98 See cross-chapter box “Gender, Climate Justice and Transformative Pathways” in Schipper et al., 2022, “Climate Resilient Development Pathways.” UNFCCC, 2022, “Dimensions and Examples of the Gender-Differentiated Impacts of Climate Change, the Role of Women as Agents of Change and Opportunities for Women.” 99 Awiti, 2022, “Climate Change and Gender in Africa: A Review of Impact and Gender-Responsive Solutions.” 100 UNFCCC, 2022, “Dimensions and Examples of the Gender-Differentiated Impacts of Climate Change, the Role of Women as Agents of Change and Opportunities for Women.” 101 World Bank Group, 2024, “Madagascar Country Climate and Development Report.” 102 World Bank Group, 2022, “South Africa Country Climate and Development Report.” 103 See World Bank data for employment in agriculture, female (% of female employment), using modeled International Labour Organization estimates: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.FE.ZS?locations=MZ. 104 See World Bank data for employment in agriculture, male (% of male employment), using modeled International Labour Organization estimates: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.MA.ZS?locations=MZ. 105 OCHA. 2024. “Mozambique: Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2025 (December 2024).” UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/mozambique/mozambique-humanitarian-needs-and-response-plan-2025-december-2024. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 24 skills to bear in adapting to climate change.106 Intersectional This is particularly concerning because Madagascar has a approaches are thus crucial to ensuring just, inclusive, serious child labor problem, with UN data showing about 35 and effective adaptation, with full recognition of people’s percent of girls and 38 percent of boys aged 5–17 engaged in differentiated vulnerabilities as well as their strengths.107 economic activities and/or household chores as of 2018.111 UN data also show 39 percent of children are stunted, 44 percent With this in mind, it is important to note that sexual minorities, do not complete primary school, 20 percent of girls aged including lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ+) 15–19 have experienced physical violence, and 39 percent of individuals, face significant discrimination and exclusion in girls under 18 are already married.112 Southern and Eastern Africa. Consensual same-sex sexual acts remain illegal in Comoros, punishable by up to five years 3.5 Implications for policy and in prison, and they are also illegal in Eswatini and in Burundi.108 operational responses Namibia only legalized them in 2024; Angola, in 2021; Botswana, in 2019, and Mozambique, in 2015. Even when they are free A key takeaway from this section is that social vulnerability from legal restrictions, LGBTQ+ people are often marginalized, plays a central role in how people experience climate change, so they are disproportionately likely to live in poverty and are affected by it, and are able or unable to adapt. However, under conditions that put them at higher risk of harm from it is not enough to look at monetary poverty as a proxy for climate change impacts.109 They may also be denied access to social vulnerability; many different, intersecting factors affect emergency shelters or other assistance in times of crisis. the relative vulnerability—and strengths—of communities and individuals. Two main implications arise for policy and practice: Age and (dis)ability are two other key factors that affect people’s vulnerability to climate change. The MDE analysis Recognize the importance of understanding social shows that older adults, youth, and people with disabilities vulnerability from an intersectional perspective, and make consistently face higher exclusion rates in the region. In the effort to examine factors beyond monetary poverty Burundi, young adults aged 18–29 experienced an exclusion that can deepen vulnerability, such as inadequate access rate of 79 percent, significantly higher than the 68 percent to basic services; exclusion from social, economic, and among those above the age of 60. In Madagascar, by contrast, political processes; lack of voice or decision-making power; older adults faced a 93 percent exclusion rate. In DRC, persons marginalization on the basis of race, ethnicity or indigeneity, with disabilities face an exclusion rate of 57 percent, compared and constraining social or cultural norms. with 47 percent for people without disabilities. Drawing on the knowledge provided by an in-depth social Children and youth’s heightened vulnerability is well vulnerability analysis, design response measures tailored to established in the climate change literature.110 This is the differentiated needs of vulnerable groups and populations, due to both physical reasons—smaller stature, greater aiming to address the key deficits and to empower people to susceptibility to diseases, greater sensitivity to heat—and build on their own knowledge and strengths and thus enhance to their dependence on adults in their household and on their resilience to climate change. broader systems in the community. For example, drought in Madagascar has significantly impacted children, increasing What follows are two examples of projects and programmatic the risks of food insecurity and exploitation through labor. responses that embody that approach. 106 Johnson, D.E., M. Parsons, and K. Fisher. 2022. “Indigenous Climate Change Adaptation: New Directions for Emerging Scholarship.” Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space 5 (3): 1541–78. doi:10.1177/25148486211022450. 107 Trisos et al., 2022, “Africa.” 108 All information on legal provisions given here is from the International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association (ILGA) legal database: https://database.ilga.org/criminalisation-consensual-same-sex-sexual-acts [accessed 12 January 2025]. 109 Dalton, D. 2023. “Have We Left Behind the Rainbow Warriors? The Climate Emergency and Its Impact on Global Queer People and Their Communities.” In Gender, Sexuality and the UN’s SDGs: A Multidisciplinary Approach, edited by D. Dalton and A. Smith, 17–40. Cham: Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-031-31046-1_2. 110 Trisos et al., 2022, “Africa.” 111 See https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-protection/child-labour/ [accessed 12 January 2025]. 112 UNICEF. 2024. “UNICEF Country Programme in Madagascar 2024–2028.” United Nations Children’s Fund. https://www.unicef.org/madagascar/en/reports/every-child-better-future. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 25 3.5.1. The Dedicated Grant rural areas and depends on agriculture, mainly subsistence farming, but productivity is low due to land degradation and Mechanism for Local Communities inadequate inputs. Farmers urgently need support to become in Mozambique more resilient to climate shocks. The Dedicated Grant Mechanism (DGM) for Indigenous Peoples Grounded in an in-depth analysis of the underlying causes of and Local Communities, managed by the World Bank, was vulnerability across Burundi, as well as a detailed mapping developed under the Forest Investment Programme to allocate of both climatic and land degradation risks, this project is targeted support for the needs and priorities of groups who working to enhance government institutions’ capacity to have a significant stake in protecting forests and other natural foster climate resilience; promoting sustainable watershed ecosystems, but are often marginalized.113 Launched in 2018, the management and landscape restoration; and delivering Dedicated Grant Mechanism for Local Communities (MozDGM) targeted support to the most vulnerable communities provided US$4.5 million over five years to support projects designed (collines), based on local priorities.117 by local communities, including in Cabo Delgado.114 The program helps ensure that local voices are heard from the community to The project has three main components.118 The first, enabling national levels. It has also supported community–private sector environment for climate resilience, includes support for partnerships, which create sustainable and mutually beneficial strengthening Burundi’s policy and regulatory frameworks economic opportunities. The DGM in Mozambique has provided from the national to the local level, while also building capacity-building for community-based organizations (CBOs) to capacities within institutions to manage watersheds enable them to participate in integrated landscape management sustainably and to address climate and land risks, with special and enhance climate resilience. Tailored communication strategies, attention to vulnerable groups such as women and youth. including radio broadcasts and theater plays, have also raised awareness about sustainable practices. Technical assistance has The second component aims to reduce the risks of soil aimed to address the specific needs of women and youth as well, erosion, restore degraded lands and natural resources, and supporting their active participation in community-based natural improve the longer-term resilience of the watersheds to resource management (CBNRM) initiatives.115 climate shocks. It will achieve this by supporting planning in 87 sub-watersheds, promoting integrated watershed Furthermore, the DGM has been instrumental in establishing management, including management of high-risk slopes and policy proposals that support CBNRM, fostering sustainable protected areas, and restoring 38,639 ha of degraded lands. forest management. This comprehensive approach ensures that local communities not only participate in but also benefit The project’s third component, community livelihood resilience from natural resource management, creating a model that support, will address constraints related to limited access to can be replicated in other regions facing similar challenges. finance and the lack of an integrated response to communities’ needs for resilient livelihoods in the face of rising climate and 3.5.2 The Burundi Colline Climate land risks. It includes developing colline-level climate action Resilience Project priorities and supporting their implementation, while improving land security through systematic land certification to enable In Burundi, deep and widespread poverty, social exclusion, and access to financing for climate-resilient livelihood investments. fragility make people extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.116 The vast majority of the population lives in 113 See https://www.dgmglobal.org and https://www.cif.org/cif-funding/dedicated-grant-mechanism. 114 CIF. 2018. “MozDGM Launch.” Climate Investment Funds press release. September 12. https://cif.org/news/mozdgm-launch. 115 Canpolat, E. et al. 2022. “Fostering Gender-Transformative Change in Sustainable Forest Management: The Case of the Dedicated Grant Mechanism (DGM).” Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37127. 116 Tall, Arame et al., 2022, “Tackling Climate Change, Land Degradation and Fragility: Diagnosing Drivers of Climate and Environmental Fragility in Burundi’s Colline Landscapes – Towards a Multi-Sector Investment Plan to Scale up Climate Resilience.” 117 Burundi is very mountainous and hilly, and local administrative units are called collines (the French word for hills). 118 See https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P180864. Note that the project has a fourth component that comprises project management, coordination, communication, monitoring and evaluation, and the environmental and social framework. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 26 Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 27 4. Conflict, Violence, Displacement, and Migration Social and political exclusion, deprivation, and entrenched 4.1 The nexus of climate change, inequalities are known drivers of conflict and, sometimes, exclusion, and conflict violence in sub-Saharan Africa.119 There is a growing literature on links between climate change impacts, conflict, and An in-depth analysis published in 2019 found that the violence as well.120 As socially vulnerable people are affected by five main drivers of conflict risk in Africa were i) low climate change, the stress can create or exacerbate tensions socioeconomic development; ii) low state capability; iii) within households, within communities, and among groups intergroup inequality; iv) a recent history of violent conflict; competing for scarce resources such as water and productive and v) conflict in neighboring countries.123 Climate change was land.121 Attempts to adapt—for instance, by switching from found to have played only a minor role—though this could pastoralism to farming—may also cause tensions. soon change in places where the impacts are escalating. The relationship between climate change and conflict is thus A study published in 2020 found that local warming was complex—and inextricably linked with social vulnerability and correlated with higher levels of conflict in Africa as a whole, exclusion.122 Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities that in particular the prolongation of an existing conflict, likely can lead to conflict and violence. And conflict and violence by disrupting livelihoods and thus encouraging people make people more vulnerable to climate change by harming to join armed groups.124 Another 2020 study found that them physically, destroying their property, and intensifying increased terrestrial temperatures significantly increased social, economic, and political pressures overall. Both climate the incidence of conflict between nomadic and settled shocks and conflict and violence also drive displacement communities across Africa, particularly in the areas where and migration. Those interplays, which are visible in several these communities most overlapped.125 countries in the region, are the focus of this section. Four of the countries covered by this report are on the World Bank’s 2025 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS): DRC and Mozambique for active conflicts, and Burundi and Comoros for institutional and social fragility.126 119 See, e.g.: Fjelde, H. and G. Østby. 2014. “Socioeconomic Inequality and Communal Conflict: A Disaggregated Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008.” International Interactions 40 (5): 737–62. doi:10.1080/03050629.2014.917373. 120 See Box 9.9 in Trisos et al., 2022, “Africa.”, as well as Buhaug, H. et al. 2015. “Climate Variability, Food Production Shocks, and Violent Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Environmental Research Letters 10 (12): 125015. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125015. Brzoska, M. and C. Fröhlich. 2016. “Climate Change, Migration and Violent Conflict: Vulnerabilities, Pathways and Adaptation Strategies.” Migration and Development 5 (2): 190–210. doi:10.1080/21632324.2015.1022973. Mach, K.J. et al. 2019. “Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict.” Nature 571 (7764): 193–97. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6. Koubi, V. 2019. “Climate Change and Conflict.” Annual Review of Political Science 22 (Volume 22, 2019): 343–60. doi:10.1146 /annurev-polisci-050317-070830. Buhaug, H. and N. von Uexkull. 2021. “Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change.” Annual Review of Environment and Resources 46 (Volume 46, 2021): 545–68. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708. 121 Eberle, U.J., D. Rohner, and M. Thoenig. 2020. “Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa.” CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15542. Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3753942. 122 Buhaug et al., 2015, “Climate Variability, Food Production Shocks, and Violent Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.” 123 Mach et al., 2019, “Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict.” 124 Van Weezel, S. 2020. “Local Warming and Violent Armed Conflict in Africa.” World Development 126 (February): 104708. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104708. 125 Eberle, Rohner, and Thoenig, 2020, “Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa.” 126 For an overview of the World Bank’s approach to the FCS list and a link to the current list, see https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/classification-of-fragile-and-conflict-affected-situations. Lessons from CCDRs Understanding Social in Vulnerability Southern and for more Effective Eastern Africa Climate Strategies 28 Some other countries have previously experienced conflict Burundi, one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in and violence: for example, Angola had 27 years of civil war, the world (see Table 2), has endured fragility, conflict, and ending in 2002, and some resulting infrastructure deficits violence for generations. It started in the 1960s, stretched still linger.127 Madagascar has managed to maintain peace, into violent conflict between Hutus and Tutsis in the 1970s but repeated political crises have set back growth, and and again in the 1990s, and was followed by more violence limited institutional capacity and law enforcement have in 2015. Traumas from those conflicts continue to affect perpetuated fragility and insecurity.128 These factors have Burundians and have not been fully addressed.130 clearly exacerbated social vulnerability in these countries and, by extension, made it more difficult for people to Some of the worst effects of conflict in the region are cope with climate shocks. visible in Mozambique, particularly in Cabo Delgado, the northernmost province, which since 2017 has seen a surge of violent extremism.131 Figure 3. The progression of conflict and violence in Cabo Delgado, punctuated by two cyclones Natural Hazards and Conflict Timeline 8 battles between 10 battles between Cyclone Kenneth between extremists extremists and the (April 2019), 35 the police forces of police forces of battles between Mozambique in Mozambique in extremists and police Mocimboa da Praia Mocimboa Da Praia, forces of Mozambique in and Palma. Palma , Nangade, Mocimboa da Praia, Quissanga, Balama and Muldumbee. Nangade, Macomia, Palma, Muidumbe, and Nangade. 2017 2018 2019 3 acts of violence 53 acts of violence 161 acts of violence against civilians by against civilians by against civilians by unidentified armed unidentified armed unidentified armed groups in Mocim- groups in Mocimboa groups and extremists boa da Praia and da Praia, Nangade, in Mocimboa Da Praia, Palma, Palma. Palma, Macomia. Ibo, Macomia, Nangade, Meluco, Muidumbe, Quiterajo, and Olumbi. Source: Stewart et al. (2022).129 127 World Bank Group, 2022, “Angola Country Climate and Development Report.” 128 World Bank. 2022. “The World Bank Group in Madagascar, Fiscal Years 2007–21: Country Program Evaluation.” Country Program Evaluation. I ndependent Evaluation Group. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38052. 129 Stewart et al., 2022, “Climate, Disasters and Conflict in Cabo Delgado.” 130 Tall, Arame et al., 2022, “Tackling Climate Change, Land Degradation and Fragility: Diagnosing Drivers of Climate and Environmental Fragility in Burundi’s Colline Landscapes – Towards a Multi-Sector Investment Plan to Scale up Climate Resilience.” 131 Pirio, G., R. Pittelli, and Y. Adam. 2021. “Cries from the Community: Listening to the People of Cabo Delgado.” Africa Center for Strategic Studies. August 30. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/cries-from-the-community-listening-to-the-people-of-cabo-delgado/. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 29 The violence erupted as people in the area were struggling in 2019, Idai and Kenneth.134 Several major floods have with the aftermath of severe floods.132 As of July 2023, UN also occurred in recent years. data show, more than 834,000 people in Cabo Delgado were living in a situation of protracted displacement, and The confluence of violence and extreme weather events there was a broad humanitarian crisis in the region.133 can create profound vulnerabilities. In the aftermath of Cyclone Kenneth, for example, humanitarian groups found Under such conditions, it is difficult for governments that extreme poverty, instability, and limited access to and humanitarian agencies to manage disaster risks services in northern Mozambique had exacerbated the effectively, support those affected by disasters, or impacts of the storm.135 The combination of infrastructure enhance resilience to future hazards. For Mozambique, damage and insecurity also hindered disaster response which frequently experiences extreme weather, this is a efforts. Significant protection risks were documented as major liability. From 2017 to 2024 alone, the country was well, linked to loss of shelter, displacement, and conflict. struck by seven cyclones, including two just weeks apart 6 battles between 69 battles between As of May extremists and police extremists and police 2022,the total forces of Mozambique forces in Macomia, number of in Moimboa da Praia, Palma, Nangade, and organized violence Quissanga, Pemba, and Mocimboa da Praia. events was 887. Nangade. 2020 2021 2022 49 acts of violence 121 incidents of As of May 2022, against civilians by violence against the total number of unidentified armed civilians in Macomia, reported fatalities groups and extremists Palma, Muidumbe, was 5695. in Muidumbe and Mocimboa da Praia. Mocimboa da Praia.t 132 IDMC. 2024. “2024 Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID).” Geneva: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2024. 133 UNHCR. 2023. “Cabo Delgado Internal Displacement Response – July 2023.” United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/103510. 134 Data from EM-DAT: https://public.emdat.be/data [accessed 15 January 2025]. 135 Madigan, S. 2019. “Rapid Gender and Protection Analysis: Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Response Cabo Delgado Province, Mozambique.” CARE International, Oxfam, and Save the Children. https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/rapid-gender-and-protection-analysis-tropical- cyclone-kenneth-response-cabo. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 30 The vulnerabilities created by the cyclones, in turn, displaced by disasters).142 Social vulnerability in DRC compounded the ongoing conflict.136 Mozambique’s armed is thus closely intertwined with conflict and the forced insurgency had emerged in late 2017 in Cabo Delgado, displacement that it has caused. where large endowments of mineral, timber, natural gas, and other resources coexist with deep poverty. The areas with significant exposure to climate hazards, The province is mainly rural, with livelihoods based on social vulnerability, natural resources, and conflict and smallholder agriculture and fisheries and weak access violence in DRC overlap to a great extent, particularly to education, health care, and other basic services and in the eastern region. As agriculture becomes more infrastructure. On the whole, local residents do not challenging, there will likely be increased competition for share in the benefits from resource extraction. Cyclones basic resources such as food, and in resource predation Idai and Kenneth, combined with subsequent flooding, by armed groups of local civilians. The resulting economic caused almost US$3 billion in damage in Mozambique, 137 pressure may incentivize young men in particular to join affecting hundreds of thousands of dwellings as well as armed groups as an alternative source of income. It may roads, bridges, electricity and water supplies, schools and also affect mining for materials needed for the transition health care facilities. Three months later more than half to clean energy, which are concentrated in eastern DRC. a million people were still displaced, with Cabo Delgado Amid growing resource scarcity, mines will likely become among the worst-affected. 138 an even more attractive source of money and power for armed groups, escalating the security and governance An analysis by the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre challenges that already plague DRC’s mining sector.143 found a sharp increase in the number and geographical While this dynamic might not be a key structural driver of spread of conflicts and acts of violence against civilians armed conflict in DRC, which predates climate impacts by in Cabo Delgado after the two cyclones (Figure 3).139 As decades, it is likely to perpetuate and intensify it. conflicts and violence escalated, they displaced even more people than the cyclones had: 592,000 in 2020 alone—again 4.2 Climate change and gender- concentrated in Cabo Delgado—and 1.1 million by 2023.140 based violence The Democratic Republic of Congo has also experienced The interplay of climate change impacts, deprivation, social the compounding effects of climate change and violence. exclusion, conflict, and violence affects people differently Fragility, conflict, and violence have plagued DRC for depending on their gender. Men and boys are often recruited decades, and social vulnerability and exclusion issues both into armed groups, while women and girls tend to be contribute to conflict and are exacerbated by it. 141 Multiple disproportionately affected by both disasters and conflict, armed groups operate in the eastern DRC, exploiting in everything from access to basic needs, to experiencing tensions among communities, valuable land resources, gender-based violence (GBV). and a limited state presence. At the end of 2023, there were 6.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country, 6.7 million of them displaced by conflicts, more than half of them in 2023 alone (the rest were 136 Stewart, S. et al. 2022. “Climate, Disasters and Conflict in Cabo Delgado.” The Hague: Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/68a62d7d7ea4450595483e64fa0bc360. 137 Data from EM-DAT: https://public.emdat.be/data [accessed 15 January 2025]. 138 IOM. 2019. “Mozambique Cyclone Idai and Cyclone Kenneth Response: Situation Report #10 1-18 July 2019.” International Organization for Migration. https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/mozambique-cyclone-idai-and-cyclone-kenneth-response-situation-report-10-1-18-july. 139 Stewart et al., 2022, “Climate, Disasters and Conflict in Cabo Delgado.” 140 Data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMP): https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data/ [accessed 15 January 2025]. 141 World Bank Group, 2023, “Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Country Climate and Development Report.” 142 See Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) data: https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data/ [accessed 12 January 2025]. 143 Rupert, J. 2024. “In Congo, Peace Means a Halt to ‘Brutal, Illegal Mining.’” United States Institute of Peace. March 7. https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/03/congo-peace-means-halt-brutal-illegal-mining. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 31 Figure 4. Survey respondents reporting increased violence against women in southern Madagascar Aug20 Nov20 Apr21 Sep21 Jan22 Jun22 Dec22 93.68% 90.30% 100% 81.13% 90% 80% 65.37% 58.11% 70% 56.17% 53.08% 46.92% 60% 43.83% 41.89% 50% 34.63% 40% 18.87% 30% 9.70% 20% 6.32% 10% 0% Yes No Source: World Bank (forthcoming).144 Similar dynamics have been documented in southern Madagascar, which faced first a prolonged drought with After Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, for example, women not only devastating consequences for food security, then severe faced greater food insecurity than men, but also difficulties impacts from Cyclone Freddy in 2023.147 The resulting accessing water, as they needed to travel long distances, and crises have reinforced gender inequality and led to an this exposed them to harassment and sexual violence.145 In array of harmful survival strategies, including sexual some areas, fear of attack by armed groups led women to use exploitation and early marriage. In the Grand Sud, child low-quality water to avoid danger. An assessment also found labour, child marriage and sexual violence (sexual abuse, that even prior to the cyclones, women and girls living in sexual exploitation) are the three main child protection poverty had frequently been forced to engage in sex for food issues, according to a rapid protection assessment. Here, or money, and families sometimes encouraged or coerced too, climate change impacts exacerbated existing problems, this. Domestic violence and marital rape were also found to be as child marriage rates in some parts of the Grand Sud and common, as were child marriage and human trafficking, which Grand Sud-Est already exceeded 50 percent. worsened post-cyclone.146 144 World Bank, forthcoming. 145 Madigan, 2019, “Rapid Gender and Protection Analysis: Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Response Cabo Delgado Province, Mozambique.” 146 Bhalla, N. 2019. “First Cyclone, Then Slavery: Risks Abound for Mozambique Children.” Reuters, March 27, sec. World. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/first-cyclone-then-slavery-risks-abound-for-mozambique-children-idUSKCN1R81EE/. 147 OCHA. 2023. “Flash Appeal Madagascar: Grand Sud and Grand-Sud-Est, January-December 2023.” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/madagascar/flash-appeal-madagascar-grand-sud-and-grand-sud-est- january-december-2023-revised-march-2023. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 32 Research has identified tipping points within households remain so for years. At the end of 2023, there were 75.9 million and communities in southern Madagascar when stress from internally displaced persons, including 68.3 million displaced climate change and social vulnerability increase the risk by conflict and violence. Sudan and DRC had the most IDPs in of GBV.148 Entrenched social and gender norms, women’s sub-Saharan Africa: 9 million and 6.7 million, respectively. inadequate access to and control of assets and crucial resources (e.g., land, markets, fertilizer, seeds, financial capital, Disasters are less likely than conflicts to displace people long- technologies), concentration in low-wage casual employment term, but they are still significant drivers of displacement. (e.g., agriculture and the informal economy), limited In 2023, 26.4 million people worldwide were displaced by bargaining power, and poor representation in key decision- disasters, including 20.3 million affected by extreme weather making processes are some of the factors that increase girls’ events.150 Notably, all but three of the 45 countries and and women’s vulnerability to GBV. The severe drought in territories that reported conflict displacement in 2023 also southern Madagascar led to the loss of traditional livelihood reported disaster displacement. About 6 million people in opportunities and decreased incomes even as food prices rose. sub-Saharan Africa were displaced by disasters in 2023. The combination of these pressures in a context where women This includes about 655,000 in Mozambique and 117,000 in were already marginalized increased stress at the household Madagascar, both linked mainly to Cyclone Freddy; about level, making family members more vulnerable to specific 133,000 displaced by floods and landslides in DRC; and 79,000 triggers for GBV. Increased male out-migration from the South in Angola, 36,000 of whom were displaced by a single storm. has left women in even more vulnerable positions, making them susceptible to sexual exploitation to meet basic needs. Displacement disrupts people’s livelihoods and children’s education and, as noted above, significantly exacerbates Survey data highlight the links between social vulnerability, social vulnerability overall, especially when IDPs are isolated climate shocks, and gender-based violence. Between 2018 on camps with limited services and infrastructure.151 The and 2022, amid the drought in southern Madagascar, a loss of personal documents may further increase people’s monitoring system was put in place to track the social susceptibility to harassment and abuse, with disproportionate impacts. At the peak of the drought, in 2021, 47 percent of impacts on women.152 A recent meta-analysis found that survey respondents reported worsening violence against almost half of female refugees and IDPs in Africa reported women. After rains resumed and the humanitarian crisis being survivors of gender-based violence.153 began to ease, in 2022, the share of respondents noting an increase in GBV dropped below 10 percent (Figure 4). People affected by climate change impacts—from gradual changes in rainfall, to major disasters triggered by natural 4.3 Displacement and migration hazards—may also choose to migrate. If they can migrate safely and deliberately, not in distress, and their destinations As illustrated by the situation in Mozambique, conflict and have the capacity to receive them, this may be a successful violence can drive displacement on a massive scale. In 2023 adaptation.154 alone, 20.5 million people worldwide were displaced by conflicts and violence within their own countries, including 3.8 When people migrate in distress, however, because their million in DRC, which ranked second in the world for conflicts, homes have been destroyed, their livelihoods have been after Sudan.149 Moreover, many people who are displaced ruined, they are deep in debt, and/or their family faces 148 World Bank. forthcoming. “Women’s and Girls’ Exposure to Gender-Based Violence in Southern Madagascar: Their Insights and Experience in the Aftermath of the Recent Drought.” Washington, DC. 149 IDMC, 2024, “2024 Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID).” 150 IDMC, 2024. 151 Madigan, 2019, “Rapid Gender and Protection Analysis: Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Response Cabo Delgado Province, Mozambique.” 152 OCHA. 2024. “Mozambique: Displacement in Northern Cabo Delgado – Situation Report No. 1 (as of 15 March 2024).” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/mozambique/mozambique-displacement- northern-cabo-delgado-situation-report-no-1-15-march-2024. 153 Tadesse, G. et al. 2024. “Gender-Based Violence and Its Determinants among Refugees and Internally Displaced Women in Africa: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” BMC Public Health 24 (1): 2851. doi:10.1186/s12889-024-20329-8. 154 Clement, V. et al. 2021. “Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration.” Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36248. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 33 hunger, the likelihood of a positive outcome diminishes.155 In South Africa, for example, prolonged droughts and water Distress migrants are at significant risk of abuse both scarcity in rural areas have driven significant migration to during their journey and at their destination. They may also cities. Non-white and low-income households tend to be experience social exclusion and deprivation and be exposed likelier than white and high-income people to be influenced to new hazards—for instance, if they move to a place by climatic factors in their decision to migrate.159 Receiving where drought or flood risks are increasing. International communities have struggled to meet newcomers’ needs, so migrants from Africa often find few destinations will migration has led to an increase in informal settlements and welcome them, and even in other African countries, they strained urban infrastructure. may encounter discrimination and marginalization.156 The very poorest and most vulnerable people, in turn, may lack In Namibia, climate shocks have triggered significant rural- the resources to be able to move.157 to-urban migration, leading to resource conflicts and social tensions. For instance, during the 2013–2016 droughts, the The World Bank has estimated that by 2050, climate displacement of subsistence herders resulted in conflicts over change could lead 216 million people worldwide to migrate water and pastureland in regions where they arrived, such as within their own countries, including up to 86 million in Omusati.160 This migration trend has swelled informal urban sub-Saharan Africa.158 It is important for national and local settlements, where climate migrants face economic hardship governments alike to understand which areas are likely to and social exclusion.161 Looking ahead, projections suggest experience out-migration linked to climate change, and up to 25 percent of Namibians may be forced to relocate which areas are likely to attract new migrants. This can help due to climate change impacts in coming decades,162 posing them provide targeted support to enable people to stay significant challenges for urban planning and social stability. in their communities of origin; facilitate safe and orderly migration; and prepare to receive migrants and integrate In Botswana, the pattern of climate-induced migration is them socially and economically. more nuanced, particularly in riparian communities along the Okavango Delta. A study published in 2017 observed In Southern and Eastern Africa, migration in the context of that in areas such as Xobe, Shorobe, and Tubu, climate- climate change often involves rural residents moving to urban adaptive movements were often perceived as extensions of areas. As noted in Section 3, rural areas in the region generally existing social networks and traditional practices, not forced have higher rates of extreme poverty and deprivation than displacement.163 These communities have developed adaptive cities. However, while urban areas can offer greater economic strategies embedded in local Indigenous institutions of opportunities and chances to diversify livelihoods, migrants governance, such as chieftainship and the Kgotla system. One often find that their destination cities lack the infrastructure is to move seasonally between dry and wet floodplains for and services they need, especially safe housing. livestock management; another is to plant on different types of floodplains based on rainfall and river flood conditions. 155 Clement et al., 2021. 156 Omobowale, A.O. et al. 2019. “Migration and Environmental Crises in Africa.” In The Oxford Handbook of Migration Crises, edited by C. Menjívar, M. Ruiz, and I. Ness, 315–30. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190856908.013.32. 157 Zickgraf, C. 2019. “Keeping People in Place: Political Factors of (Im)Mobility and Climate Change.” Social Sciences 8 (8): 228. doi:10.3390/socsci8080228. 158 Clement et al., 2021, “Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration.” 159 Mastrorillo, M. et al. 2016. “The Influence of Climate Variability on Internal Migration Flows in South Africa.” Global Environmental Change 39 (July): 155–69. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.014. 160 IOM. 2018. “Assessing the Evidence: Migration, Environment and Climate Change – Namibia.” International Organization for Migration. https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/resources/assessing-evidence-migration-environment-and-climate-change-namibia-0. 161 Venditto, B., N.J. Kamwanyah, and C.H. Nekare. 2022. “Climate Change, Migration and Urbanisation in Contemporary Namibia.” SITES Working Paper 14. Italian Association of Development Economists. https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts /redir.pf?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sitesideas.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2022%2F10%2FSites_wp14.pdf;h=repec:awm:wpaper:14. 162 Reid, H. et al. 2008. “Climate Change Impacts on Namibia’s Natural Resources and Economy.” Climate Policy 8 (5): 452–66. doi:10.1080/14693062.2008.9685709. 163 Ngwenya, B.N. et al. 2017. “Memories of Environmental Change and Local Adaptations among Molapo Farming Communities in the Okavango Delta, Botswana — A Gender Perspective.” Acta Tropica 175 (November): 31–41. doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2016.11.029. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 34 In Madagascar, poverty and lack of opportunities in rural areas in numerous examples of the “natural resource curse” across have driven large-scale migration for decades, growing the urban the region, including deep inequalities, boom-and-bust share of the population from an estimated 27.1 percent in 2000, cycles driven by global market fluctuations, corruption, weak to 35.2 percent in 2015 and 40.6 percent in 2023.164 However, democracies, conflicts, and violence.168 employment in the cities is largely informal, so migrants find limited job opportunities in industry or high-value-added services. This legacy has important implications for efforts to promote green, resilient, and inclusive development, including large-scale Modelling for the Madagascar CCDR showed that by 2050, hydropower, biofuel feedstock plantations, forest conservation 0.62–1.96 percent of the country’s residents could be internal initiatives, and mining for minerals crucial to the energy climate migrants, depending on the climate scenario used.165 transition. Such projects are crucial for global climate change Net climate out-migration is projected to occur mainly in mitigation, and can bring significant economic benefits—but southern and eastern parts of the country and, to a lesser they can also lead to displacement and other adverse social, extent, the southwestern part. In all scenarios, the main economic, political, and environmental consequences. hotspots for net in-migration linked to climate change will be the Antananarivo region and coastal cities. The challenges are particularly significant in DRC, which has one of the world’s largest concentrations of mineral wealth.169 Many internal climate migrants in Madagascar are likely to have It is the fifth-largest copper producer globally; produces experienced multiple adverse climatic events, including ones over 70 percent of the mined global output of cobalt; and that displaced them. Severe droughts displaced many people holds almost half the world’s mineral reserves, including from southern Madagascar to coastal towns and cities such as 20 strategic ores. It also has massive, mostly untapped Morondava in the east—which were then hit by severe floods, hydropower potential, a key asset for green industrial prompting a secondary displacement.166 Since many people find development. Mining and related industrial growth could it impossible to emigrate to another country, internal migration become key sources of well-paid jobs; indeed, they are already is likely to continue to put pressure on struggling cities. driving significant internal economic migration. However, without major improvements in governance and security, 4.4 Global mitigation goods vs. these sectors could also do considerable harm. Already, community needs international organizations have documented exploitation, forced displacement, violence, and human rights abuses.170 Southern and Eastern Africa have a long history of extractive development—from plantation agriculture to mining—that Large-scale hydropower projects also often result enriched the few at the expense of the many and often in significant displacement, as seen in Madagascar, caused extensive environmental harm.167 Patterns established Mozambique, and South Africa, for instance. The Mangoky in the colonial era have endured to a great extent, resulting River Hydropower Project in Madagascar required moving 164 Custom data obtained online from UN DESA, 2018, “World Urbanization Prospects 2018.” 165 World Bank Group, 2024, “Madagascar Country Climate and Development Report.” 166 Ghouri, N. 2016. “Climate Change Plagues Madagascar’s Poor: ‘The Water Rose so Fast.’” The Guardian, July 7, sec. Global development. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/jul/07/madagascar-climate-change-plagues-poor-the-water-rose-so-fast. 167 See, e.g.: Austin, G. 2010. “African Economic Development and Colonial Legacies.” International Development Policy | Revue Internationale de Politique de Développement, no. 1 (March): 11–32. doi:10.4000/poldev.78. 168 See, e.g., World Bank Group, 2022, “Angola Country Climate and Development Report”; 2023, “Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Country Climate and Development Report.” See also: Acheampong, A.O. et al. 2023. “Sub-Saharan Africa’s Tragedy: Resource Curse, Democracy and Income Inequality.” Social Indicators Research 168 (1): 471–509. doi:10.1007/s11205-023-03137-2. Henri, P.A.O. 2019. “Natural Resources Curse: A Reality in Africa.” Resources Policy 63 (October): 101406. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101406. 169 World Bank Group, 2023, “Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Country Climate and Development Report.” 170 Amnesty International. 2023. “Powering Change or Business as Usual? Forced Evictions at Industrial Cobalt and Copper Mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.” London: Amnesty International and Initiative pour la Bonne Gouvernance et les Droits Humains. https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/AFR62/7009/2023/en/.ц Finn, B.M. and P.B. Cobbinah. 2025. “DRC: History Is Repeating Itself in Lubumbashi as the World Scrambles for Minerals to Go Green.” The Conversation (blog), February 4. http://theconversation.com/drc-history-is-repeating-itself-in-lubumbashi-as-the-world-scrambles-for- minerals-to-go-green-248571. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 35 villages and submerged farmland. The Cahora Bassa Dam in REDD+ programs, has also triggered migration, and the same Mozambique displaced tens of thousands of people, resulting is true of Mozambique’s Chimanimani National Reserve. in both internal and cross-border migration. In South Africa, the Lesotho Highlands Water Project caused community This is not inevitable: well-designed, inclusive climate relocations, influencing rural-to-urban migration patterns. mitigation and biodiversity conservation efforts can bring sustainable economic development to local communities (see For more than two decades, the World Bank and other key also section 5.4). The REDD+ mechanism and other growing actors have sought to not only make local communities pots of funding such as the Central African Forest Initiative whole, but actually share benefits equitably with them,171 (CAFI)174 offer good opportunities for communities to actively going above and beyond the safeguards provided by the contribute to forest protection and enhanced carbon storage Environmental and Social Framework.172 There is ample while increasing their own income. However, achieving this at guidance on good practices, with examples from around the scale will require significantly more financing and higher levels world, but many projects still fall short in this regard. of institutional effectiveness than at present. Similarly, large-scale land acquisitions and concessions for There are also other, potentially higher-value carbon removal biofuel feedstock plantations in the region have displaced credits that could be made accessible to rural and coastal many local communities. In 2020 alone, one analysis found, communities in each country, such as through more durable foreign entities signed contracts for 561,000 hectares in forms of carbon storage in the central Congolese peatlands.175 Madagascar, 91 percent for biofuel crops such as jatropha.173 Biochar, a pyrolyzed biomass which enhances soil fertility and Large-scale land acquisitions for agribusiness, including durably stores carbon when buried, and is already valued for biofuel production, have also occurred in Mozambique. And its benefits for climate resilience,176 is also increasingly being in South Africa, the expansion of commercial agriculture for explored as a scalable carbon storage approach in the region.177 biofuel crops such as sugarcane and maize has contributed to land appropriation and displacement. 4.5 Implications for policy and operational responses Conservation efforts, such as REDD+ programs, can also restrict traditional land use and resource access, prompting This section has highlighted several complex and difficult migration as communities seek alternative means of issues that can make climate action in the region sustenance. In DRC, as conservation activities in Virunga particularly challenging. National Park have expanded, surrounding communities have faced restrictions on land use, resource extraction, and agricultural activities. The Makira Natural Park in Madagascar, established for biodiversity conservation and 171 See, e.g.: World Bank. 2010. “Enhancing Development Benefits to Local Communities in Hydropower Projects: Technical Workshop.” Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12701. IHA. 2019. “How-to Guide: Hydropower Benefit Sharing.” London: International Hydropower Association. https://www.hydropower.org/publications/hydropower-benefit-sharing-how-to-guide. IFC. 2021. “Capturing Hydropower’s Promise: Case Studies on Local Benefit Sharing in Hydropower Projects.” Washington, DC: International Finance Corporation. https://commdev.org/publications/capturing-hydropowers-promise-case-studies-on-local-benefit-sharing- in-hydropower-projects/. 172 World Bank. 2016. “World Bank Environmental and Social Framework.” Washington, DC. https://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/environmental-and-social-framework. 173 Rice, 2022, “Madagascar’s Famine Is More than Climate Change.” 174 See https://www.cafi.org and: Kanté, C.F. 2023. “Three Priorities to Turn Natural Capital into Wealth for the People of the Congo Basin.” World Bank. Africa Can End Poverty (blog), October 26. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/africacan/three-priorities-turn-natural-capital-wealth- people-congo-basin. 175 Ruiz, S. 2024. “Valuing the DRC’s Peatlands.” Woodwell Climate Research Center. December 2. https://www.woodwellclimate.org/protecting-drc-peatlands-sustainable-economic-development/. 176 Obia, A. et al. 2019. “Biochar Application to Soil for Increased Resilience of Agroecosystems to Climate Change in Eastern and Southern Africa.” In Agriculture and Ecosystem Resilience in Sub Saharan Africa: Livelihood Pathways Under Changing Climate, edited by Y. Bamutaze et al., 129–44. Cham: Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-12974-3_6. 177 See, e.g., https://www.pathbeing.com. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 36 With this in mind, it is important to: to equitably sharing the benefits of every project.181 Meaningful engagement with communities is crucial to 1. Recognize upfront that fragility, conflict, and violence ensuring that benefit-sharing efforts are effective. exacerbate climate vulnerability, and that climate shocks also exacerbate conflict and violence risks. That 4.5.1 The Northern Crisis Recovery means that in such contexts, any assessment of social Project in Mozambique vulnerability must include subject-matter experts, both to better understand the situation, and to help As discussed in section 4.1, people in northern Mozambique design more effective interventions. The World Bank have experienced both severe climate-related disasters already partners with international and civil society and a rise in conflict, violence, and related displacement in organizations to implement projects in FCS; these recent years. Approved in 2021, the Northern Crisis Recovery partners can also play a crucial role in mapping these Project is helping repair public infrastructure while fostering complex situations from the outset.178 social cohesion, assisting displaced persons as well as the communities that host them.182 The goal is to support Cabo 2. Engage experts in gender—and, in particular, gender- Delgado’s longer-term recovery and development, reduce based violence—in assessing risks and needs on the conflict risks, and build resilience. ground, and seek their support to design gender- responsive humanitarian assistance and development Recognizing that the loss of personal documents significantly programs and provide survivor-centered care for those exacerbated people’s vulnerability, the World Bank helped the affected by GBV.179 government to pilot a “one-stop-shop” process to obtain a birth certificate and a national identity card, all at once and at no 3. Recognize that migration is a key adaptation strategy for cost. Over 75,000 people were able to obtain documents at 15 people struggling to cope with climate change impacts, sites across southern Cabo Delgado. The program prioritized and proactively work to anticipate both in- and out- those who had lost their documents due to conflict and who migration linked to climate change. This can help support were likely to face particular difficulties obtaining documents. safe and orderly migration (as opposed to distress migration), protect migrants from abuse, reduce stress The program has also supported peacebuilding committees, for destination communities, and facilitate the integration skills training, and economic opportunities to help displaced of migrants. It can also help to target interventions in persons regain their dignity and build social cohesion. communities of origin to reduce the need for migration, as There have been cash-for-work programs, and business many people would rather stay—or are unable to leave.180 management and entrepreneurship courses. People have also been supported in returning to fishing and agricultural 4. Conduct rigorous environmental and social assessments livelihoods. At the same time, by restoring and rebuilding for all projects, including those to generate global public infrastructure, the program has helped ensure access to mitigation goods, and raise the bar from just education and health care. compensating project-affected people for any harm, 178 See also: World Bank. 2023. “Mid-Term Review of the World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (2020–2025).” Board report. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/publication/fragilit-conflict-and-violence-mid-term-review. 179 For an overview of the World Bank’s work on these issues, as well as key resources, see https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/socialsustainability/brief/violence-against-women-and-girls. 180 Clement et al., 2021, “Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration.” 181 Along with the sources cited above, see: IFC. 2015. “The Art and Science of Benefit Sharing in the Natural Resource Sector.” Working Paper. Washington, DC: International Finance Corporation. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24793. World Bank Group. 2019. “Benefit Sharing at Scale: Good Practices for Results-Based Land Use Programs.” Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/32765. World Bank. 2024. “Benefit Sharing in World Bank Operations: Prioritizing Development for Local Communities.” Washington, DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/41675. 182 See https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P176157 as well as: World Bank. 2023. “Restoring Hope in Conflict-Torn Northern Mozambique: Identification Documents and Livelihoods.” Feature story. August 9. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/ feature/2023/08/09/restoring-hope-in-conflict-torn-afe-northern-mozambique-identification-documents-and-livelihoods. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 37 4.5.2 The Gender Based Violence household level. Community-based organizations provided Prevention and Response Project support to survivors. in DRC The project also worked to strengthen front-line service provision for survivors, including a multisectoral response for Gender-based violence (GBV) is both a consequence of the complex cases and high-quality medical services. The latter vulnerability of women and girls in many contexts, and a driver included support for two Centers of Excellence specializing of further vulnerability, as survivors may have lasting physical in treating survivors of sexual violence, as well as training of injuries and/or emotional trauma and may also be shamed a broader range of providers, including community health and marginalized. The Gender-Based Violence Prevention workers, to deliver services closer to communities. and Response Project in DRC, which closed in 2023, aimed to reduce the incidence of GBV through prevention programs, The project Implementation Completion Report found that while increasing utilization of services for survivors and helping more than 87,700 people had participated in community-level ensure that, in the event of a crisis or emergency, survivors economic support services, far exceeding original targets. In would still be able to receive immediate and effective support.183 addition, more than 10,500 people received specialized mental health care, and 265 health care providers were trained by The largest component of the project was a community- the project. While from this perspective, the project was a level prevention and integrated support program promoting success, its impact on social norms and attitudes was far gender equality, behavioral change, and violence prevention in smaller. Community survey results found only a modest the targeted sites. Along with prevention activities explicitly change in women’s reported participation in household addressing GBV, there were livelihood interventions to help decision-making (from 41.6 to 45.8 percent), and the share of women build savings and develop income-generation activities. survivors seeking help at the community level also increased Additional activities aimed to address gender inequality at the less than expected (from 85 to 88.4 percent). 183 See https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P166763 and World Bank. 2023. “Tackling Gender Based Violence Is a Development Imperative.” Results brief. September 21. https://projects.worldbank.org/en/results/2023/08/25/tackling-gender-based- violence-development-imperative. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 38 Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 39 5. Integrating Social Inclusion in Climate Action Understanding social vulnerability in its many dimensions and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. The most urgent concern is crucial to the design of effective climate strategies, for most, however, is to build climate resilience. policies, programs, and projects. Without this perspective, interventions may not actually enhance the resilience of Several countries first articulated their understanding the intended beneficiaries—and some actions may even of climate vulnerability through National Adaptation leave them more vulnerable. There is growing evidence of Programmes of Action (NAPAs) under the United Nations “maladaptation,” when responses to climate change shift risks Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).187 to other people, undermine resilience to future risks, create The NAPA program was designed to support Least new vulnerabilities, or otherwise do harm.184 Developed Countries (LDCs), which were recognized as particularly vulnerable. All the LDCs among the 12 countries This section focuses on three key ways in which climate submitted one: Angola, Burundi, Comoros, DRC, Lesotho, action can address social vulnerability and thus be more Madagascar, and Mozambique. equitable, inclusive, and effective: by explicitly grappling with social vulnerability and the need for inclusion in Under the Paris Agreement, approved in 2015, all countries national policies, strategies, and plans; by promoting are required to submit “nationally determined contributions” “just transitions” to low-carbon and climate-resilient (NDCs) laying out their commitments to climate action, with development; and by meaningfully engaging with and updates every five years in which they should progressively empowering local communities. increase their ambition.188 The main focus of NDCs is on mitigation, though countries are also welcome to include 5.1 Social inclusion in mitigation commitments on adaptation, and many have. The most and adaptation policies comprehensive analyses of climate vulnerability and relevant resilience-building actions, however, are in National As discussed in Section 2, most of the 12 countries covered Adaptation Plans (NAPs), which developing countries have by this report have not contributed significantly to global been submitting under the UNFCCC since 2015.189 Burundi, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with even South Africa, the DRC, Madagascar, Mozambique, and South Africa have top emitter in the region, lagging far behind the top emitters submitted NAPs. in the Americas, Asia, and Europe.185 Several countries in the region, particularly DRC, do have significant emissions from It is beyond the scope of this report to examine the specific land use change and forest loss, however.186 mitigation commitments made by the 12 countries in their NDCs. Instead, the analysis focuses on two key questions: Given that deforestation and land degradation also undermine development and climate resilience, countries have 1. Do the mitigation commitments account for social a strong incentive to tackle those emission sources. At the vulnerability and promote a just transition, working to same time, with international support, many governments in avoid disproportionate adverse impacts on vulnerable the region have committed to investing in renewable energy groups and sharing benefits equitably? 184 Schipper, 2020, “Maladaptation: When Adaptation to Climate Change Goes Very Wrong.” 185 See ClimateWatch data for cumulative GHG emissions, total excluding LUCF: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions [accessed 3 January, 2025]. 186 See ClimateWatch data for cumulative GHG emissions, land-use change and forestry: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions [accessed 3 January, 2025]. 187 See overview here: https://unfccc.int/topics/resilience/workstreams/national-adaptation-programmes-of-action/introduction and the list of submitted NAPAs here: https://unfccc.int/topics/resilience/workstreams/national-adaptation-programmes-of-action/napas-received. 188 See overview here: https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs and the NDC Registry here: https://unfccc.int/NDCREG. 189 See overview here: https://unfccc.int/national-adaptation-plans and NAP submissions here: https://napcentral.org/submitted-naps. Lessons from CCDRs Understanding Social in Vulnerability Southern and for more Effective Eastern Africa Climate Strategies 40 2. Are adaptation strategies, policies, and actions grounded in not explicitly discussed, though DRC’s low ranking on the a robust understanding of social vulnerability, and designed ND-GAIN Index (see Table 2 in section 2.2) is mentioned, and to address the underlying causes of vulnerability? the NDC says its operationalization “will only be possible with an inclusive approach, guaranteeing gender equity, equality of The mitigation commitments made by South Africa, for rights between women and men, boys and girls, integrating example—to reduce its annual GHG emissions to 350–420 children, young people, Indigenous Peoples and other vulnerable million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) by groups” (p. 96). It goes on to mention the national gender policy 2030, with a view towards net zero emissions by 2050—will and accompanying action plan, as well as a national youth require massive investments and a transformation of the policy and plan and legislation on Indigenous rights. energy sector. As the NDC notes, “South Africa’s economy and energy system is one of the most coal-dependent in the Botswana’s second NDC, submitted in 2024, mentions upfront world” (pp. 3–4).190 The need for a just transition is a recurring that its society is “highly unequal,” with a Gini coefficient of theme in the NDC, which commits to leaving no one behind, 0.55, and the unemployment rate is high, 26 percent in 2022.194 ensuring procedural equity, minimizing adverse impacts, and However, the NDC goes on to frame vulnerability entirely in maximizing benefits for all. The NDC also includes a detailed terms of dependency on rainfall, water scarcity, and fragile discussion of adaptation needs and commitments. ecosystems, and mitigation commitments (in the energy and land sectors) do not explicitly include any provisions to ensure Recognizing that vast majority of its GHG emissions (almost a just transition. In contrast, some adaptation measures 92 percent in 2021191), DRC has focused its mitigation do target vulnerable groups. For example, plans to promote commitments on the forestry sector,192 including a national conservation agriculture specifically focus on “those living in strategy for reducing emissions from deforestation and poverty, and female-headed households,” and several measures forest degradation (REDD+). The updated NDC pledges a 21 in the health sector target women’s needs. percent reduction in annual emissions by 2030 relative to business-as-usual levels, of which 19 percent is conditional Madagascar’s second NDC, also submitted in 2024, explicitly on international assistance. The NDC outlines a wide range links poverty and deprivation, deforestation and ecosystems of mitigation measures across sectors and within forestry in degradation, and climate vulnerability.195 It notes that particular, including some with the potential to address social “access to sustainable development and the fight against vulnerability, such as promoting community forestry and poverty are the pillars of the fight against the harmful effects valuing traditional knowledge in biodiversity conservation. of global warming,” and cites the country’s high rates of multidimensional poverty and malnutrition. The latter, the In addition, the NDC includes 52 adaptation actions to support NDC adds, is caused mainly by “poverty, lack of education, priorities identified in the NAP, including support for smallholder climatic hazards, traditional agricultural practices and agriculture and efforts to enhance access to clean water, insufficient resources for hydro-agricultural infrastructure.” sanitation, health care, and energy.193 Social vulnerability is 190 Republic of South Africa. 2021. “South Africa First Nationally Determined Contribution Under the Paris Agreement, Updated September 2021.” Pretoria. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/South%20Africa%20updated%20first%20NDC%20September%202021.pdf. South Africa’s commitment to “ultimately moving towards a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050” was made in the country’s first Long-Term Strategy under the UNFCCC (p. 21). See: Government of South Africa. 2020. “South Africa’s Low-Emission Development Strategy 2050.” Submitted to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Pretoria. https://unfccc.int/documents/253724. 191 See ClimateWatch data: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/countries/COD?end_year=2021&start_year=1990#ghg-emissions. Also see: Kuramochi, T. et al. 2021. “Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios in Nine Key Non-G20 Countries: An Assessment of Progress toward 2030 Climate Targets.” Environmental Science & Policy 123 (September): 67–81. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.015. 192 Democratic Republic of Congo. 2021. “Revised Nationally Determined Contribution.” Kinshasa: Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/CDN%20Revisée%20de%20la%20RDC.pdf. 193 Democratic Republic of Congo, 2021. 194 Republic of Botswana. 2024. “Botswana’s 2nd Updated Nationally Determined Contribution Under the Paris Agreement.” Gaborone: Department of Meteorological Services. https://unfccc.int/documents/497359. 195 Republic of Madagascar. 2024. “Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Republic of Madagascar Under the Paris Agreement.” Antananarivo. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2024-01/NDC%202%20MADAGASCAR.pdf. Note that the text is in French; the quotes have been translated by the authors. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 41 Yet after that stark diagnosis, Madagascar’s NDC does not short. It is also crucial to look for what may be missing; for actually identify specific measures to ensure a just transition example, Mozambique’s NAP barely mentions conflict and (indeed, the term is never used) or to provide targeted violence;198 South Africa’s NAP mentions apartheid, exclusion, support to the most vulnerable people. This is notable given and inequality at the outset, and then never again.199 that the NDC provides sector-by-sector outlines of planned mitigation and adaptation measures. In a section on “means Overall, there is still significant scope for recognizing of implementation”—which mainly refers to finance—the and addressing social vulnerability in countries’ climate NDC does note that Madagascar “allocates a substantial policies, strategies, and plans, and for making them more portion of its annual budget to infrastructure and social inclusive. The first step is to conduct a thorough analysis service systems to help address the adverse effects of of differentiated vulnerabilities, in order to understand how climate change,” but it does not elaborate. various non-climatic factors are exacerbating the harm caused by climate change (and, potentially, by climate Madagascar’s NAP, completed in 2021, says even less than action). Then it is crucial to incorporate the findings into the NDC about the underlying causes of climate vulnerability, policies, strategies and plans, by: though it does refer to the IPCC’s conceptual framework.196 Several proposed adaptation measures could benefit the 1. Explicitly including vulnerable groups in specific poorest and most marginalized people, such as those living in objectives, up to and including new objectives that solely informal settlements in cities, but the NAP does not discuss focus on reducing vulnerabilities, and differentiated needs or targeted actions. 2. Disaggregating indicators, to better monitor how different NAPs are designed to delve deeper into the causes of vulnerability measures affect different groups over time, and thus ensure and identify appropriate responses, and some countries’ plans that no one is left behind, much less harmed unintentionally. do highlight the issues discussed in this report. For example, Mozambique’s NAP notes that the country’s deep vulnerability A key benefit of properly addressing social vulnerability in to climate change “is exacerbated by the extensive coastline climate strategies, policies, and plans is that it can help and socio-economic fragility” (p. 36).197 It adds that more than ensure that climate action has positive impacts on poverty 60 percent of the population lives in low-lying coastal areas; alleviation and development. That said, it is important to two-thirds remain in rural areas; 45 percent of the population recognize any potential trade-offs and seek to maximize lives below the poverty line; and 70 percent depend on climate- synergies.200 The success of climate action is often judged sensitive agricultural production for food and livelihoods. The NAP in terms of GHG emissions avoided or specific adaptation also discusses gender disparities, unequal power relations, and measures adopted, but there is also strong evidence that the exclusion of women from decision-making processes, and well-planned climate action can support the attainment of raises concerns about gender-based violence and early marriages the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).201 Still, many triggered by poverty, including after disasters. climate actions could have adverse impacts on at least some people. It is crucial to work proactively to mitigate harm, to Of course even well-crafted and detailed NDCs and NAPs avoid exacerbating vulnerabilities or creating new ones. may not translate into effective actions if political will, institutional capacities, coordination, and/or resources fall 196 MEDD. 2021. “Plan National d’adaptation Au Changement Climatique.” Antananarivo: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, Republic of Madagascar. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/PNA-Madagascar.pdf. 197 Ministry of Land and Environment. 2023. “Mozambique’s National Adaptation Plan.” Maputo: National Directorate of Climate Change. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/National_Adaptation_Plan_Mozambique.pdf. 198 Ministry of Land and Environment, 2023. 199 Republic of South Africa. 2021. “National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy.” Pretoria: Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/South-Africa_NAP.pdf. 200 Cohen, B. et al. 2021. “Co-Benefits and Trade-Offs of Climate Change Mitigation Actions and the Sustainable Development Goals.” Sustainable Production and Consumption 26 (April): 805–13. doi:10.1016/j.spc.2020.12.034. 201 UN DESA and UNFCCC. 2023. “Synergy Solutions for a World in Crisis: Tackling Climate and SDG Action Together: Report on Strengthening the Evidence Base.” New York and Bonn: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat. https://sdgs.un.org/synergy-solutions-world-crisis-tackling-climate-and-sdg-action-together. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 42 Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 43 5.2 ‘Just transitions’ and socially Box 1. Three pillars of a just transition inclusive climate action Distributive justice means committing to equitably share both the benefits and the risks associated with the transition The concept of “just transitions” provides a structured to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy. It starts by response to the socioeconomic changes driven by climate recognizing that without proactive efforts, the burdens of the transition are likely to be borne mainly by vulnerable groups, change. It emerged from the labor movement as a way to such as people employed in industries that are being phased highlight the need to address the concerns of the people who out (e.g., coal mining), communities that are economically might be affected by sustainability efforts.202 Since then, it dependent on those industries, and low-income households, has been widely adopted as a framing for inclusive climate who will be disproportionately affected by any price increases. action that prioritizes workers, communities, and vulnerable It also seeks to ensure that these groups enjoy the benefits of the transition, such as new investments and new jobs. groups. There is no universal definition—indeed, there is now a wide array of academic papers, reports, toolkits, and case Procedural justice means creating fair, transparent, and studies on the topic203—but it is widely recognized as the inclusive planning and decision-making processes to drive right way forward, including in the Paris Agreement. It is also the transition, so that all stakeholders have a voice and are not sidelined by special interests. It empowers workers, generally understood to include three pillars: distributive, communities, and small businesses directly affected by the procedural, and restorative justice (see Box 1). transition to actively shape solutions, and it helps ensure accountability as plans are implemented. Achieving a just transition is a challenge for any country, and Restorative justice focuses on acknowledging and repairing even more so for countries in Southern and Eastern Africa that the harm inflicted upon individuals, communities, and the are struggling with high levels of social vulnerability, fragility, environment by previous practices and actions. This may mean environmental degradation, and escalating climate change restoring degraded ecosystems, cleaning up pollution, restoring impacts. However, if justice is not deliberately addressed, land rights, and otherwise providing redress for past injustices. climate action may unintentionally exacerbate vulnerability, as case studies in several countries have shown.204 Similarly, whether land sector interventions succeed or fail depends on result in some people being disproportionately burdened a complex array of ecological, socioeconomic, and political- while others reap an outsize share of the rewards. There institutional factors, and is highly context-dependent.205 is a growing recognition of the need for gender-inclusive transitions, for instance.206 Even if activities such as coal As with all efforts to address social vulnerability, an mining are dominated by men, efforts to create new intersectional perspective is crucial to achieving just livelihood opportunities in a community can and should transitions, to address the many different factors that can benefit women as well. Achieving this requires ensuring 202 ILO. 2015. “Guidelines for a Just Transition towards Environmentally Sustainable Economies and Societies for All.” Brochure. Geneva: International Labour Organization. http://www.ilo.org/global/topics/green-jobs/publications/WCMS_432859/lang--en/index.htm. 203 See, e.g., the World Bank’s Just Transition for All initiative: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/extractiveindustries/justtransition; the Climate Investment Funds’ Just Transition Planning Toolbox: https://www.cif.org/just-transition-toolbox/home; the World Resources Institute’s Just Transition and Equitable Climate Action Resource Center: https://www.wri.org/just-transitions; as well as: McCauley, D. and R. Heffron. 2018. “Just Transition: Integrating Climate, Energy and Environmental Justice.” Energy Policy 119 (August): 1–7. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.014. Lee, S. and L. Baumgartner. 2022. “How Just Transition Can Help Deliver the Paris Agreement.” New York: United Nations Development Programme. https://climatepromise.undp.org/research-and-reports/how-just-transition-can-help-deliver-paris-agreement. 204 Bastos Lima, M.G. 2022. “Just Transition towards a Bioeconomy: Four Dimensions in Brazil, India and Indonesia.” Forest Policy and Economics 136 (March): 102684. doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102684. Cahill, B. 2020. “Just Transitions: Lessons Learned in South Africa and Eastern Europe.” Center for Strategic and International Studies. July 23. https://www.csis.org/analysis/just-transitions-lessons-learned-south-africa-and-eastern-europe. 205 Sayer, J., C. Margules, and A. Boedhihartono. 2017. “Will Biodiversity Be Conserved in Locally-Managed Forests?” Land 6 (1): 6. doi:10.3390/land6010006. Harvey, C.A. et al. 2018. “Local Perceptions of the Livelihood and Conservation Benefits of Small-Scale Livelihood Projects in Rural Madagascar.” Society & Natural Resources 31 (9): 1045–63. doi:10.1080/08941920.2018.1484974. Coleman, E.A. et al. 2021. “Limited Effects of Tree Planting on Forest Canopy Cover and Rural Livelihoods in Northern India.” Nature Sustainability 4 (11): 997–1004. doi:10.1038/s41893-021-00761-z. 206 ILO. 2024. “Gender, Equality and Inclusion for a Just Transition in Climate Action: A Policy Guide.” Geneva: International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/publications/gender-equality-and-inclusion-just-transition-climate-action. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 44 that women are actively involved in the planning and maintenance crops, mulching, using manure for fertilizer, implementation of transition initiatives, and tailoring and improving drainage.209 Farmers used Indigenous education, skill development, and entrepreneurship knowledge for climate and weather forecasting, though programs to the needs of women as well as men. Women that knowledge was being lost as older people passed and girls may also be indirectly affected by the transition, away. Owning livestock, being aware of climatic risks to through changes in household income and shifts in labor crops, and exchanging information with other farmers market dynamics; addressing these impacts may require were significant determinants of adoption of adaptation carefully targeted support. practices, but many people lacked the resources needed. 5.3. Supporting and empowering In southern Madagascar, a study found that communities local communities recognized that the widespread practice of swidden agriculture and the overharvesting of trees for charcoal and Social vulnerability varies greatly even within countries, firewood were driving rapid deforestation and turning parts and so does adaptive capacity. This means that to be of the South into tane karakay (naked land), exacerbating effective, efforts to build climate resilience should be the impacts of drought.210 They also blamed the severe grounded in an understanding of each local context, food insecurity crisis at the time on climatic conditions, including both vulnerabilities, and strengths. Communities pests on their farmland, and lack of government support. are already adapting to climate change impacts, and there The study found that local residents felt abandoned and is much to learn from their knowledge, resourcefulness, marginalized, with no viable development alternatives and and innovation. Indeed, a key way to build resilience is to inadequate basic infrastructure. empower local communities and support their efforts. A key insight from research is that people’s resilience and Across Southern and Eastern Africa, many people are adaptive capacities can not always be predicted on the basis already aware of the impacts of climate change and of their income or the extent to which they have endured environmental degradation, and coping and adapting in hardship. Indeed, people who have lived in poverty or who have various ways.207 A study of agrarian communities in the faced difficult climatic conditions for a long time may have mountains of South Kivu, in eastern DRC, for example, significant resilience and a broad array of adaptive strategies.211 found people had noticed changes in rainfall, more frequent Knowledge and practices passed down across generations may high temperatures and drought, and impacts on their crops, strengthen their ability to confront environmental challenges— livestock, soil erosion, and people’s health.208 In response, even if they cannot fully implement their strategies because community members reported switching to different crop they do not have sufficient resources. varieties, increasing the use of pesticides, and shifting the time and scale of their planting. Wealth played a role in Many Indigenous Peoples have used their traditional which adaptation strategy was used, as not everyone could knowledge and practices to manage difficult climatic afford the most capital-intensive strategies. conditions, and it is important to value and sustain this knowledge and use it to build resilience to climate Another study in South Kivu found local farmers had change.212 In Namibia, for instance, pastoral mobility observed similar patterns and were adapting in various serves as a key drought response, with Himba and Herero ways, including crop diversification, planting low- pastoralists, self-styled “masters of drought,” using flexible 207 For a discussion of different trajectories of coping and adaptation, and how they can lead to positive or negative outcomes, see Schipper, 2020, “Maladaptation: When Adaptation to Climate Change Goes Very Wrong.” 208 Amani, R.K. et al. 2022. “Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptations among Smallholder Farmers in the Mountains of Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.” Land 11 (5): 628. doi:10.3390/land11050628. 209 Balasha, A.M. et al. 2023. “Understanding Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Adaptation Practices in the Marshlands of South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo.” Climate Risk Management 39: 100469. doi:10.1016/j.crm.2022.100469. 210 Ralaingita, M.I. et al. 2022. “The Kere of Madagascar: A Qualitative Exploration of Community Experiences and Perspectives.” Ecology and Society 27 (1). doi:10.5751/ES-12975-270142. 211 Schipper, 2020, “Maladaptation: When Adaptation to Climate Change Goes Very Wrong.” 212 Coirolo, C., D.N. Cudjoe, and E. Canpolat. 2021. “Empowering Indigenous Women to Integrate Traditional Knowledge and Practices in Climate Action.” Washington, DC: Climate Investment Funds. https://www.cif.org/sites/cif_enc/files/knowledge-documents/indigenous_women-tkt_report.pdf. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 45 land tenure arrangements and social networks to access 5.3.1 The global–local disconnect resources during scarcity.213 Northern Kaokoveld herders have called for greater agency in adaptation, highlighting on climate policy and action the importance of recognizing Indigenous knowledge. Community-level experiences of climate stress, perceptions Similarly, in Botswana’s Okavango Delta, rural households of their own social climate sensitivity, and adaptation employ Indigenous practices to perceive and adapt and mitigation efforts tend to be disconnected from to climate variability, informing crucial decisions on climate policy and implementation. This stems partly from livelihood choices, relocation, and seed preservation.214 differences in perspective and lack of knowledge of climate These traditional practices contribute significantly to both science at the local level. climate change mitigation and adaptation, through carbon sequestration, ecological restoration, resilient agricultural Some studies indicate that communities think positively production, and effective water management, among about environmental conservation (and, by extension, climate others. They are also vital in sustaining cultural diversity, action). Attitudes towards climate adaptation improve when reducing poverty, and maintaining food and livelihood communities are engaged and stand to benefit, but there may be security among Indigenous Peoples. limited interest in climate efforts disconnected from livelihoods. Women in particular have gained unique knowledge, For example, households participating in livelihoods projects capabilities, and networks through their traditional roles in and around the forested and biodiverse Ankeniheny that enable them to take effective action for conservation Zahamena Corridor in Madagascar thought the activities and implement nature-based solutions.215 Engaging had conservation goals even if they were unstated,218 and women in local climate change responses can therefore that the livelihoods projects helped meet those perceived lead to better resource governance, conservation goals. Surveys also found that participants had more positive outcomes, and disaster readiness. In the Bogakhwe tribe attitudes towards conservation and were very willing to of Botswana’s Okavango Delta, researchers found that participate in future projects. skills and knowledge were gendered.216 For example, women had a unique knowledge of crops and natural In contrast, a study in DRC linked low levels of community resources. Similarly, in agro-pastoralist communities interest in REDD+ to the projects’ narrow emphasis on forest of the Kweneng district, female-headed households protection.219 Not enough compensation was being provided demonstrated higher likelihood of adapting to climate to local people who would lose income from forest protection change compared to male-headed households. This efforts, the study found, and their participation was limited. increased adaptability was attributed to women’s This particularly affected Indigenous communities and limited flexibility in modifying their livelihoods.217 community buy-in. REDD+ programs have been assessed as complex, often non-transparent, and vulnerable to elite capture, which may 213 Bollig, M. 2023. “Drought, Disaster, and Identity in North-Western Namibia in Times of Global Climate Change.” In Climate Change Epistemologies in Southern Africa, edited by J. Ahrens and E. Halbmayer. London: Routledge. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters /oa-edit/10.4324/9781003180814-3/drought-disaster-identity-north-western-namibia-times-global-climate-change-michael-bollig. 214 Kolawole, O.D. et al. 2014. “Responding to Climate Change through Joint Partnership: Insights from the Okavango Delta of Botswana.” World Journal of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development 11 (3): 170–81. doi:10.1108/WJSTSD-06-2014-0010. 215 Canpolat et al., 2022, “Fostering Gender-Transformative Change in Sustainable Forest Management: The Case of the Dedicated Grant Mechanism (DGM).” 216 Kolawole et al., 2014, “Responding to Climate Change through Joint Partnership: Insights from the Okavango Delta of Botswana.” 217 Kgosikoma, K.R., P.C. Lekota, and O.E. Kgosikoma. 2018. “Agro-Pastoralists’ Determinants of Adaptation to Climate Change.” International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 10 (3): 488–500. doi:10.1108/IJCCSM-02-2017-0039. 218 Harvey et al., 2018, “Local Perceptions of the Livelihood and Conservation Benefits of Small-Scale Livelihood Projects in Rural Madagascar.” 219 Kengoum, F. et al. 2020. “The Context of REDD+ in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Drivers, Agents and Institutions (2nd Edition).” Occasional Paper 207. Bogor, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research. doi:10.17528/cifor/007793. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 46 Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 47 further reduce local community interest.220 In Madagascar, service delivery provision at the local level, accounted for only 2 experience with REDD+ indicates that the stronger the percent of total public investment in 2017. livelihoods incentives and outcomes are, the more community support they have.221 But in DRC, legacies of exclusion— 5.3.2 Community-based and particularly related to Indigenous Peoples—may also be locally led climate action playing a role. The idea that climate action should empower and support local All too often, international and national climate processes communities is not new. The concept of “community-based do not have adequate institutions, platforms, or funding adaptation” (CBA) emerged almost two decades ago as a way mechanisms in place to ensure local targeting and engagement. to channel resources to the most vulnerable people, enhance A review of climate governance for the Madagascar CCDR, for their adaptive capacity, and enable them to co-design suitable example, noted that country position papers, which set out adaptation measures.222 CBA was conceived as a community- a roadmap for adaptation and mitigation within key sectors led process that would be driven by local people’s priorities tended to be nationally focused and not indicate how climate and needs, build on their strengths, and empower them. The impacts might have varied distributional impacts across approach has been applied all around the world, including in the country or among different vulnerable groups. In other Southern and Eastern Africa,223 with many positive outcomes, words, they lacked local targeting outlooks to facilitate their but also challenges. In practice, many interventions billed as decentralized application in local contexts across the country. CBA have been driven mainly by external actors, with limited buy-in and engagement from local people.224 The definition of Commitments to inclusive transitions, whereby mitigation “community” has also sometimes been too narrow, excluding measures have local poverty alleviation and development stakeholders and creating competition for scarce resources. impacts, were also not explicitly covered in the documents. At the same time, subnational governments in Madagascar Aiming to strengthen local stakeholders’ agency, promote were tasked with integrating climate resiliency into their inclusion, and put more resources in the hands of affected investment planning, especially with regard to regional communities, the Global Commission on Adaptation laid out development plans and urban zoning. eight principles for “locally led adaptation” in the lead-up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26):225 There are structures for local engagement and community participation in subnational governments planning, which 1. Devolving decision making to the lowest appropriate level; has strong potential for local participatory climate action. However, there are also several constraints, including a lack of 2. Addressing structural inequalities faced by women, explicit mandates for local government participation in national youth, children, disabled, displaced, Indigenous Peoples sectoral climate policies, limited technical capacity, and lack and marginalized ethnic groups; of financial resources. Communes, which have a central role in 220 Kengoum et al., 2020. 221 Harvey et al., 2018, “Local Perceptions of the Livelihood and Conservation Benefits of Small-Scale Livelihood Projects in Rural Madagascar.” 222 See, e.g.: Huq, S. and H. Reid. 2007. “Community-Based Adaptation: A Vital Approach to the Threat Climate Change Poses to the Poor.” IIED Briefing. London: International Institute for Environment and Development. https://www.iied.org/17005iied. Ayers, J. and T. Forsyth. 2009. “Community-Based Adaptation to Climate Change.” Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, September. doi:10.3200/ENV.51.4.22-31. Schipper, E.L.F. et al., eds. 2014. Community-Based Adaptation to Climate Change: Scaling It Up. New York: Routledge. doi:10.4324/9780203105061. 223 See, e.g., the Namibia case study in: UNDP and GEF. 2013. “Adapting Locally to Secure Sustainable Futures: Selected Case Studies from the UNDP-GEF Community-Based Adaptation Project.” New York: United Nations Development Programme and Global Environment Facility. https://www.adaptation-undp.org/resources/adapting-locally-secure-sustainable-futures-selected-case-studies-undp-gef-community. For an example from South Africa, see: Rankoana, S.A. 2020. “Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in a Rural Community in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Community-Based Adaptation to Water Insecurity.” International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 12 (5): 587–98. doi:10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2020-0033. 224 Vincent, K. 2023. “Development Geography II: Community-Based Adaptation and Locally-Led Adaptation.” Progress in Human Geography 47 (4): 604–12. doi:10.1177/03091325231166076. 225 Soanes, M. et al. 2021. “Principles for Locally Led Adaptation: A Call to Action.” London: International Institute for Environment and Development. https://pubs.iied.org/10211iied. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 48 3. Providing patient and predictable funding that can be Some African countries have also prioritized community accessed more easily; leadership in nature conservation. Namibia, for example, created a community-based natural resource 4. Investing in local capabilities to leave an institutional legacy; management (CBNRM) program in 1996 that entrusted rural communities with wildlife management on communal 5. Building a robust understanding of climate risk and land (it has also established community forests and uncertainty; fish reserves).231 At the end of 2022, almost three-fifths of Namibia’s communal land were under conservation, 6. Flexible programming and learning; mainly through 86 community conservancies. Substantial international support enabled Namibia to build local 7. Ensuring transparency and accountability; and capacities upfront, in partnership with non-governmental organizations, and there is evidence that communities’ 8. Collaborative action and investment. livelihoods have been enhanced. These principles, which have been endorsed by a wide As with community-based adaptation, the track record range of governments, international organizations, and for community forestry and conservation efforts is mixed. adaptation experts, underpin the World Bank’s portfolio of A review of the biodiversity benefits of locally led forest Locally Led Climate Action activities, which are expected management initiatives found their success or failure was to benefit over 100 million people by 2030.226 The World “highly context-specific”; in poor countries in particular, Bank first supported a national-scale model for delivering the study found, people are likely to prioritize their own climate finance to communities through the Financing basic needs over global environmental objectives.232 Locally led Climate Action (FLLoCA) project in Kenya, Given that biodiversity protection may require excluding launched in 2021 (see section 5.4.3). Since then, it has significant areas from human use, with adverse effects developed an operational approach for designing similar on livelihoods, the authors argued for compensating local projects around the world,227 and committed more than people, but noted the limited availability of funds. US$4 billion in funding from the International Development Association (IDA) to initiatives in 20 countries.228 Some countries have moved away from community-based approaches, deeming them too lenient and livelihoods- In the realm of forest management, biodiversity protection, and focused, and instead favored top-down enforcement.233 conservation, meanwhile, the concept of “community forestry” There is also evidence that local people often have little has been widely embraced for decades as a way to engage local say or decision-making power in projects that purport to communities—including Indigenous Peoples—in these activities be community-driven. in a way that protects and enhances their livelihoods.229 Community forestry is also seen as a promising mechanism for ensuring that forest-dependent people are not adversely affected by REDD+ projects, but actually benefit from them.230 226 World Bank. 2024. “Scaling Up Locally Led Climate Action to Enable Community Resilience and Equitable Climate Transitions.” Results brief. November 19. https://projects.worldbank.org/en/results/2024/11/19/scaling-up-locally-led-climate-action-to-enable-community-resilience. 227 World Bank. 2024. “Locally Led Climate Action: A World Bank Operational Approach.” Washington, DC: World Bank. https://collaboration.worldbank.org/content/sites/collaboration-for-development/en/groups/locally-led-climate-action /documents.entry.html/2024/11/07/locally_led_climateactionaworldbankoperation-uSZS.html. 228 World Bank, 2024, “Scaling Up Locally Led Climate Action to Enable Community Resilience and Equitable Climate Transitions.” 229 For a comprehensive view, including case studies from around the world, see: Bulkan, J. et al., eds. 2022. Routledge Handbook of Community Forestry. London and New York: Routledge. https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/8552/. 230 Duguma, L. et al. 2018. “Community Forestry Frameworks in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Impact on Sustainable Development.” Ecology and Society 23 (4). doi:10.5751/ES-10514-230421. 231 Brown, L. and T. Amutenya. 2024. “Biodiversity Finance in Namibia.” Case study. London: ODI Global. https://odi.org/en/publications/biodiversity-finance-in-namibia/. 232 Sayer, Margules, and Boedhihartono, 2017, “Will Biodiversity Be Conserved in Locally-Managed Forests?” 233 For a comprehensive view, including case studies from around the world, see: Bulkan et al., 2022, Routledge Handbook of Community Forestry. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 49 5.3.3 Insights from Madagascar A more recent analysis of multistakeholder forestry projects in Madagascar found that developmental and resilience and DRC indicators had improved, but there was no evidence of improved local agency, highlighting the importance of A study of the Makira REDD+ Project in Madagascar, published in being realistic about how much local communities can 2015, found that there was limited support for the most vulnerable lead processes of climate adaptation/mitigation or local people in the community—in particular, the farmers whose development without the state or external organizations.238 location made them highly exposed to cyclones.234 The authors concluded that given the interlinked nature of developmental and With appropriate support, community members can gain climatic/environmental challenges in Madagascar, projects should the knowledge and skills needed to participate meaningfully still focus on specific landscapes, but be holistic in their range of in climate activities. It is crucial to recognize that rural support and in the communities they engage.235 communities and other marginalized groups may have low educational levels, so they need tailored communications, In practice, this can be a major challenge. The land area under such as radio programs and in-person engagement. Existing protection in Madagascar quadrupled from 2003 to 2016, environmental protection and restoration projects that and management shifted from strict, centrally governed have delivered positive development outcomes can serve as protected areas to sites allowing sustainable use to support examples. Testimonials from project beneficiaries may also livelihoods, with shared governance involving non-governmental encourage others to participate—with the caveat that if organizations (NGOs) and local community associations.236 there are conflicts or divisions in the community, testimonials A 2018 review by practitioners who had been involved in the from members of rival groups will not be helpful. To succeed, expansion found they had limited effectiveness in reducing projects need to engage meaningfully with communities in deforestation and other threats, likely due to the speed of order to understand local perceptions and expectations.239 the expansion, insufficient resources, and the complexity of managing forests towards multiple objectives. The effective Community-based approaches to conservation have been tried level of community participation in decision-making also varied. in DRC as well. For example, the Mai Ndombe REDD+ initiative, supported by the World Bank, aimed to enhance local livelihoods Still, that study’s authors concluded that multiple-use protection while improving carbon sequestration and discouraging areas and shared governance arrangements “have an important swidden agriculture.240 More than 15,000 community members role to play” in forest and biodiversity protection, as they help participated in consultations at the outset, and fast-growing minimize conflict with stakeholders and reduce the government’s acacia trees were planted—about 1.3 million seedlings as of management burden (p. 34).237 However, they stressed that such 2017—to provide wood for fuel and building, taking pressure off approaches are inherently complex, and advancing development natural forests. The trees were intercropped with cassava and, and conservation goals at once would remain an “enormous” sometimes, fruit trees, adding to the benefits for local residents. challenge in the absence of sufficient resources to “adequately Moreover, thousands of smallholders had received payments address the root causes of biodiversity loss.” for environmental services (PES) through contracts with local development committees for reforestation activities. 234 Brimont, L. et al. 2015. “Achieving Conservation and Equity amidst Extreme Poverty and Climate Risk: The Makira REDD+ Project in Madagascar.” Forests 6 (3): 748–68. doi:10.3390/f6030748. 235 This is what is known as a “landscape approach.” For an overview, see: Sayer, J. et al. 2013. “Ten Principles for a Landscape Approach to Reconciling Agriculture, Conservation, and Other Competing Land Uses.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (21): 8349–56. doi:10.1073/pnas.1210595110. 236 Gardner, C.J. et al. 2018. “The Rapid Expansion of Madagascar’s Protected Area System.” Biological Conservation 220 (April): 29–36. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.011. 237 Gardner et al., 2018. 238 Favretto, N. et al. 2020. “Delivering Climate-Development Co-Benefits through Multi-Stakeholder Forestry Projects in Madagascar: Opportunities and Challenges.” Land 9 (5): 157. doi:10.3390/land9050157. 239 Favretto et al., 2020. 240 World Bank. 2018. “Fact Sheet: Mai Ndombe Redd+ Initiative in DRC.” March 16. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/drc/brief/fact-sheet- mai-ndombe-redd-initiative-in-drc. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 50 In the Itombwe Nature Reserve, a hybrid approach is now deforestation in the DRC increased in most years between in place, with “community conservation committees” made 2000 and 2020. A study identified conflicting interests up of both eco-guards and community members, patrolling among stakeholders, elite capture and corruption, and wider together.241 If someone is found conducting banned political instability as the main challenges. activities, the local customary chief adjudicates the case. While this approach is not without its own potential risks, it Newer REDD+ projects that emphasize ameliorating drivers gives some ownership of the process to the community and of deforestation—through more inclusive local decision- spares minor offenders from going into the Congolese justice making on land use plans, income-yielding agroforestry and prison system. and payments for ecosystem services—are now being implemented through the Central African Forest Initiative These approaches differ from DRC’s historical—and still (CAFI) and may strengthen both the effectiveness and social widely used—approach to environmental protection, which inclusion of forest-protection projects.246 has been based on the expulsion and exclusion of forest- dependent communities.242 Effective, sustainable conservation 5.4 Implications for policy and may require an element of enforcement, but it is unlikely to operational responses succeed without tackling the root causes of deforestation and ecologically harmful mining. Moreover, it is unethical and, in This section has shown that countries in Southern and many contexts, outright illegal to forcibly displace Indigenous Eastern Africa already recognize, at least to some extent, Peoples and local communities from their lands in the name the role of poverty, deprivation, and social exclusion in driving of environmental protection. It is also counterproductive: a climate vulnerability, as well as the need to develop socially global assessment found that in the tropics, including in the inclusive climate responses. Yet national policies, strategies, Congo, the highest-integrity forests tended to be in protected and plans only partly address these issues, with important areas inhabited by Indigenous communities.243 omissions and limited follow-through in implementation. REDD+ and other international carbon credit initiatives offer In order to fully address social vulnerability and develop a promising source of revenue to offset any adverse impacts appropriate policy and operational responses, it is important to: on local livelihoods, but the institutional environment can be a significant constraint. Without improving the capacity 1. Ground national climate policies, strategies, and plans in of governments to support and certify such projects, it a comprehensive analysis of social vulnerability as well will likely remain challenging even for more sophisticated as physical climate risks (see also section 2.3), including organizations and project developers to access stable a mapping of all the key stakeholders, their respective revenues from international carbon markets.244 vulnerabilities and strengths, and how they interact, including power relationships. DRC, for example, has had a well-developed REDD+ strategy and institutional framework for more than a decade, 2. Ensure that national climate policies, strategies, reflecting the importance the international community has and plans not only recognize social vulnerability, placed on forest protection in DRC. However, in practice, but also address it through targeted interventions, little progress has been made through REDD+ and other with disaggregated performance metrics, dedicated mechanisms to protect forests from the main drivers of financing, and accountability to affected communities. deforestation and restore lost forest.245 In fact, rates of 241 Verweijen, J. 2022. “Saving Congo’s Forests Means Changing ‘Law Enforcement.’” United States Institute of Peace. December 22. https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/12/saving-congos-forests-means-changing-law-enforcement. 242 Verweijen, 2022. 243 Sze, J.S. et al. 2022. “Indigenous Lands in Protected Areas Have High Forest Integrity across the Tropics.” Current Biology 32 (22): 4949-4956.e3. doi:10.1016/j.cub.2022.09.040. 244 Favretto et al., 2020, “Delivering Climate-Development Co-Benefits through Multi-Stakeholder Forestry Projects in Madagascar: Opportunities and Challenges.” 245 Kengoum et al., 2020, “The Context of REDD+ in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Drivers, Agents and Institutions (2nd Edition).” 246 See https://www.cafi.org and: Kanté, 2023, “Three Priorities to Turn Natural Capital into Wealth for the People of the Congo Basin.” Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 51 3. Pursue just transitions both in climate change power generation).249 This means that phasing out coal has mitigation and in adaptation, underpinned by inclusive significant implications for justice and inclusion. processes that enable meaningful participation by all key stakeholder groups, a commitment to equitable At the same time, coal in South Africa has always been outcomes, and efforts to repair the legacy of past associated with low wages, poor working conditions discrimination, marginalization, and other injustices that and other exploitative labor practices, particularly in led to current vulnerabilities. Mpumalanga, the main coal-producing province.250 The government has also sought to reduce coal dependency 4. Put local communities at the center of climate action, for public health and environmental reasons, seeking to recognizing them not just as beneficiaries of projects, but transition to renewable energy sources instead. as holders of knowledge and valuable ideas, who deserve to co-create solutions to their own climate challenges Analysis by Greenpeace has found that Mpumalanga and lead their implementation. Devolved decision making province is one of the worst air pollution hotspots in the and decentralized financing are crucial to this. So is world: No. 1 globally in 2018 for NO2 coming from power upholding the rights of Indigenous Peoples, building local plants and No. 3 globally for even deadlier SO2 emissions.251 capacities, and strengthening vulnerable people’s rights The analysis also found that the national utility Eskom’s through land tenure reforms. near-complete reliance on coal led to about 2,100 premature deaths per year. Other research has shown that dense, low- 5. Target climate finance and support services to reduce income settlements surrounding coalfields suffer particularly barriers faced by marginalized ethnic/cultural groups in from air pollution, demonstrating that poverty is a accessing drought relief, resilient livelihood programs, significant driver of differential exposure to low air quality.252 and other adaptation initiatives. Yet for Mpumalanga, home to 65 of South Africa’s 78 The rest of this section presents examples of projects operating coal mines and 11 of Eskom’s 14 coal-fired and initiatives that have prioritized social inclusion, just power plants, ending coal dependency could also have transitions, and the empowerment of local communities, massive impacts on local livelihoods.253 Not only are including marginalized groups within those communities. coal mines and power plants major employers, but the analysis noted above found that these jobs had better 5.4.1. Fostering social dialogue employment conditions than the average formal sector job for a just transition in South Africa in Mpumalanga. Moreover, the large upfront investments needed to replace coal power with renewable energy is South Africa’s economy and energy systems are among the likely to drive up the cost of electricity for some time, with most coal-dependent in the world. Coal fueled 71 percent of disproportionate impacts on the poor. the country’s energy supply and 84 percent of its electricity as of 2022,247 and South Africa is also one of the world’s top coal exporters, shipping out 60.6 Mt of coal in 2022.248 A recent review estimated that almost 107,000 people had jobs linked to coal, directly (in mining) or indirectly (in 247 See International Energy Agency country profile: https://www.iea.org/countries/south-africa. 248 See https://thecoalhub.com/south-african-coal-exports.html. 249 Steenkamp, F. 2024. “End of Coal in South Africa: What 100,000 Workers Will Need When Their Jobs Go.” The Conversation (blog), October 22. http://theconversation.com/end-of-coal-in-south-africa-what-100-000-workers-will-need-when-their-jobs-go-239435. 250 Hart, K. and V. Padayachee. 2013. “A History of South African Capitalism in National and Global Perspective.” Transformation: Critical Perspectives on Southern Africa 81 (1): 55–85. doi:10.1353/trn.2013.0004. 251 Greenpeace Africa. 2019. “Latest Satellite Data Reveals Mpumalanga Is the World’s Largest Power Plant Emission Hotspot, Ranked Fourth Overall.” Press release. March 19. https://www.greenpeace.org/africa/en/press/6600/latest-satellite-data-reveals-mpumalanga-is-the- worlds-largest-power-plant-emission-hotspot-ranked-fourth-overall/. 252 Moletsane, S.D. et al. 2021. “Intra-Urban Variability of PM2.5 in a Dense, Low-Income Settlement on the South African Highveld.” Clean Air Journal 31 (1). doi:10.17159/caj/2021/31/1.9413. 253 Steenkamp, 2024, “End of Coal in South Africa: What 100,000 Workers Will Need When Their Jobs Go.” Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 52 Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 53 Recognizing these challenges, South Africa has committed to planning and implementation of transition initiatives, and ensuring a just transition254, and international partners have then get to participate fully in the new green economy. By stepped up to support it through the Just Energy Transition focusing on education, skill development, and entrepreneurship Partnership (JETP), with US$8.5 billion pledged at COP26.255 The programs specifically tailored for women, the transition can JETP includes strong support to people employed in the coal value provide them with new avenues for economic empowerment chain, especially its lowest-paid workers, and their communities. and leadership roles in sectors such as renewable energy, Yet realizing the vision of the JETP will be a major challenge. sustainable agriculture, and eco-tourism. One beneficial thing that South Africa has done from the The just transition framework also notes the need to consider outset has been to promote substantive and inclusive social indirect impacts on women, such as changes in household dialogue around the concept of just transition. The country has income and shifts in labor market dynamics. South Africa’s established multiple platforms to engage diverse stakeholders journey towards a low-carbon future thus offers a transformative in shaping socioeconomic and environmental policies. opportunity to advance gender equality, restructure labor markets for greater inclusivity, and foster a more inclusive A cornerstone of this approach is the National Economic economy in which women can fully contribute and benefit. Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC), established in 1994. This unique body brings together representatives 5.4.2 Kenya Financing Locally-Led from government, organized labor, business, and community Climate Action program (FLLoCA) groups to deliberate on all socioeconomic and labor-related policies and legislation. NEDLAC’s inclusive structure ensures The Kenya Financing Locally-Led Climate Action (FLLoCA) that various societal voices are heard in policy formulation. program exemplifies an innovative approach to enhancing community resilience through decentralized climate action. In late 2020, South Africa took another significant step It was designed to contribute to Kenya’s low-carbon by creating the Presidential Climate Commission. This development while increasing local resilience to climate multistakeholder body was tasked with driving the country’s change and other hazards.257 just transition efforts. Its composition reflects a broad spectrum of interests, including government officials, labor unions, At its core, FLLoCA operationalizes the Climate Change Fund business leaders, civil society organizations, and political parties, (CCF) and pilots green bonds, focusing on climate finance and fostering a collaborative approach to climate action. disaster risk financing for vulnerable sectors. The program prioritizes participatory approaches, engaging communities in The National Planning Commission has also played a crucial developing Integrative Climat1Risk Management action plans role in this process. Through extensive public consultations at and establishing County Climate Change Funds (CCCFs) with both provincial and national levels, the Commission has led a direct community involvement. participatory process to develop a national vision for South Africa’s just transition. This effort culminated in the creation The program’s structure reflects its commitment to local of a draft framework, “A Just Transition Framework for South empowerment. One major component supports county-level Africa 2022,” which outlines the country’s pathway towards a performance grants for climate resilience actions addressing more sustainable and equitable future.256 community priorities, while another focuses on national- level capacity building. This dual approach ensures that local Notably, the energy sector in South Africa, especially in coal- needs are met while building a cohesive national framework rich regions such as Mpumalanga, is heavily male-dominated, for climate action. and there is growing recognition of the need to incorporate gender perspectives in just transition policies and strategies. A key feature of FLLoCA is its emphasis on gender-responsive This entails ensuring that women’s voices are heard in the climate action. By integrating women into decision-making 254 See https://justenergytransition.co.za. 255 For an overview, including an update on the 2023–2027 Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP), see https://www.climatecommission.org.za/south-africas-jet-ip. 256 See https://www.climatecommission.org.za/just-transition-framework. 257 See https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P173065. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 54 processes from planning through implementation and monitoring, Through its comprehensive approach, FLLoCA demonstrates the program addresses environmental challenges while how integrating local knowledge, gender responsiveness, and strengthening women’s roles in their communities. This approach decentralized decision-making can effectively address climate is reinforced through performance-based grants, participatory challenges while promoting sustainable development. It serves climate risk assessments, and multistakeholder coordination. as a model for operationalizing climate action that is truly responsive to local needs and priorities. FLLoCA’s implementation has shown promising early results. By June 2022, 38 counties had met the minimum access 5.4.3 Improved Forested conditions to receive County Climate Institutional Support Landscape Management Project Grants, demonstrating high interest and engagement from local governments. The program has also initiated innovative (IFLMP), DRC tools like the Participatory Climate Risk Assessment (PCRA), piloted in Vihiga County, to inform community selection of DRC, home to part of the world’s second-largest rainforest, climate action sub-projects. faces the challenge of balancing environmental conservation with the needs of over 50 million forest-dependent rural The program’s success hinges on critical assumptions, inhabitants. The Improved Forested Landscape Management including county governments’ willingness to participate, their Project (IFLMP), launched by the World Bank in 2014 with ability to meet performance conditions, effective participatory several international partners, took a comprehensive, long- processes, and national entities’ collaboration. By addressing term approach to this complex issue.258 these factors, FLLoCA aims to create a sustainable model for locally-led climate resilience that can be scaled and replicated across Kenya and beyond. 258 See https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P128887. Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 55 IFLMP focused on enhancing community livelihoods while 5.4.4 Fostering community-based promoting sustainable forest management. The project established over 25,000 hectares of agroforestry plantations, conservation in Namibia and benefiting more than 248,500 local and Indigenous people, Botswana predominantly women. Simultaneously, it introduced clean and efficient cookstoves to over 600,000 individuals, improving Namibia and Botswana have been at the forefront of health outcomes and reducing forest resource dependency. community-based conservation in Africa, with both countries implementing innovative approaches to natural resource IFLMP’s impact extended beyond immediate environmental management. Botswana’s community-based natural resource concerns. By rehabilitating over 462 km of roads and 49 management (CBNRM) program, initiated in the 1970s, has bridges, the project enhanced rural connectivity, opening up been a cornerstone of its conservation and rural development new economic opportunities for isolated communities. This strategy, granting communities the right to manage wildlife infrastructure development was complemented by innovative and tourism activities in specified areas.259 Similarly, Namibia’s financing mechanisms, including a $55 million Emission community conservancy model, supported by strong legal Reductions Payment Agreement and a Payments for frameworks such as the Communal Land Reform Act of 2002, Ecosystem Services initiative that disbursed over $3 million has facilitated the devolution of resource management to for community-led projects. communities, leading to significant conservation gains. The project’s longevity allowed for building trust and fostering However, both countries now face challenges in maintaining lasting behavioral changes. Communities transitioned from the effectiveness of these programs. Climate change impacts, slash-and-burn agriculture to sustainable agroforestry, particularly in Botswana’s Okavango Delta, threaten the witnessing firsthand the long-term benefits to their lives viability of nature-based tourism, a key economic incentive and surrounding forests. IFLMP’s flexibility was evident in for conservation.260 In Namibia, increased resource extraction its responsiveness to emergent issues, incorporating health activities and the government’s allowance for oil and gas initiatives addressing challenges like Ebola and COVID-19. operations on previously protected lands pose risks to the integrity of conservancies.261 There is also a growing IFLMP’s success lies in its multifaceted approach. By recognition of the need for more equitable distribution of addressing immediate community needs while promoting benefits from these initiatives. A 2021 study found that sustainable practices, it created a model that balances in Botswana, many local people do not view tourism as environmental conservation with community development. a significant source of income, highlighting a disconnect The project’s impact extends beyond its May 2024 closure, between conservation efforts and community perceptions.262 with nearly 200,000 hectares of active community forest concessions and ongoing microprojects ensuring continued Despite these challenges, community-based conservation support for local communities. The lessons learned from in both countries continues to offer potential pathways IFLMP have already influenced future initiatives, informing for balancing conservation with local development needs, the design of a $300 million Forest and Savanna Restoration particularly if supported by improved climate education, Project. This new project aims to expand IFLMP’s successful equitable benefit-sharing mechanisms, and the integration of strategies across seven provinces, including the establishment these efforts into broader climate resilience strategies. of a national Payments for Ecosystem Services system. 259 Brown and Amutenya, 2024, “Biodiversity Finance in Namibia.” 260 Hambira, W.L. et al. 2015. “Perceptions of Tourism Operators towards Adaptations to Climate Change in Naturebased Tourism: The Quest for Sustainable Tourism in Botswana.” PULA: Botswana Journal of African Studies 27 (1). https://journals.ub.bw/index.php/pula/article/view/512. 261 Conniff, R. 2023. “In Namibia, a Lauded Community Conservation Model Is at Risk.” Yale E360, June 22. https://e360.yale.edu/features/namibia-wildlife-conservation-corruption. 262 Hambira, W.L. et al. 2021. “Climate Change, Tourism, and Community Development: Perceptions of Maun Residents, Botswana.” Tourism Review International 25 (2): 105–17. doi:10.3727/154427220X16059054538773. Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 56 Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 57 6. Conclusions and Recommendations This report has shown the large roles played by social, cultural, themselves from climate shocks such as storms and floods. It economic, and political factors in the profound vulnerability to is also challenging for governments—and for the World Bank climate change found in countries in Southern and Eastern Africa. as their development partner—to implement projects to build There is no question that the region faces serious and increasingly climate resilience in situations of fragility, conflict, and violence. severe climate hazards, but social vulnerability significantly There is also growing evidence that, when societies are already amplifies the effects and hinders effective adaptation to climate strained by extreme poverty, deprivation, and social exclusion, change. Policies, institutions, and investment choices can help the added stress created by climate change may increase the build resilience, or further exacerbate vulnerability. risk of conflict and violence. Similarly, when people lack the resources they need to recover from climate shocks and adapt in All this means that, if countries in the region and their place, they are likelier to be displaced for prolonged periods and/ development partners, including the World Bank, want to or to migrate in distress, remaining deeply vulnerable. achieve their climate objectives, they need to start from a robust understanding of social vulnerability and its main Addressing climate vulnerability in Southern and Eastern drivers. Some governments are already keenly aware of these Africa thus requires not only ambitious, well-funded issues and actively seek support for efforts to address them. climate policies, but also a clear consideration of the social Others may benefit from proactive support to delve deeper dimensions of climate and broader development policies into social vulnerability in the context of climate change and and investments. Section 5 shows that some countries identify effective and inclusive interventions. have already taken important steps in this direction, but overall, there is still significant room for improvement Section 2 showed that many areas in Southern and Eastern in understanding social vulnerability to climate change, Africa that face severe climate hazards also have high levels including differences within communities. The concept of “just of poverty, deprivation, and social exclusion. This not only transitions” has proven useful for spurring crucial discussions makes people more vulnerable to those hazards, but risks and providing a framework for more inclusive climate action. creating a vicious cycle. When people lack the resources Another promising trend is to deliver more resources to local to cope with climate shocks and to adapt, climate change communities and empower them to shape climate action in impacts are likely to further impoverish them and keep line with their priorities and needs. them trapped in a life of deprivation and social exclusion, undermining development objectives. Climate change poses daunting challenges to Southern and Eastern Africa, and without targeted support for Section 3 highlighted the many layers of social vulnerability within the most vulnerable, it is likely to hinder or even reverse Southern and Eastern Africa: from stark differences between development gains, poverty reduction efforts, and economic urban and rural conditions, to disparities based on race, ethnicity, growth. Through inclusive approaches grounded in a clear indigeneity, gender, sexuality, age, and other factors. The key understanding of social vulnerability, however, countries can takeaway is that effective and inclusive climate action is not deliver many win-wins for the climate and for development, “one size fits all”—it is crucial to take an intersectional approach while recognizing and effectively managing trade-offs. both to understanding social vulnerability, and to addressing it. Dedicated programs can provide enhanced support to One potential trade-off is between investing in projects that marginalized groups, such as Indigenous Peoples; within projects, offer high financial returns but limited benefits for climate activities can be tailored to ensure they are inclusive. vulnerability, and those with modest financial gains, but greater social benefits. For instance, smallholder agriculture Section 4 examined the complex interactions between climate employs large shares of the workforce in several countries, change and conflict, violence, displacement, and migration. but accounts for a much smaller share of GDP than There is robust evidence that conflict, violence, and displacement agribusiness, mining, tourism, and other sectors. To the extent in the region exacerbate vulnerability to climate change, as that governments are focused on growing GDP, this may lead people living in precarious conditions are ill-equipped to protect them to deprioritize support for smallholders. Understanding Lessons Social in from CCDRs Vulnerability Southern and for more Effective Eastern Africa Climate Strategies 58 Countries will also face difficult choices when prioritizing with the Bank’s Climate Change Action Plan 2021–2025. The investments in disaster risk reduction. With extreme weather insights gathered through the CCDRs are already informing events and their impacts on all types of capital stock (human, World Bank engagement with countries around the world. physical, and natural) and economic activity expected to grow with climate change, countries will want to invest in Yet research for the CCDRs and for this report revealed large improving the resilience of infrastructure connected to the knowledge and data gaps and significant differences in the highest value-add economic activities, such as ports, roads, amount and quality of evidence available to analyze social commercial hubs, and power plants and distribution systems. vulnerability across Southern and Eastern Africa. In other Yet this might do relatively little to help vulnerable populations words, a great deal of work remains to be done. in the event of catastrophic cyclones, floods, or droughts. Going forward, development partners can play a key role in In the case of Madagascar, a 2022 climate macroeconomic helping countries build a robust evidence base, including both assessment found that, in a scenario of worsening climate country-specific and comparative analyses and grounded change impacts, the country’s long-run productivity and in the latest peer-reviewed research. They can then use this economic growth would be better if it invested in both human knowledge with governments to: capital and more resilient infrastructure, not just in infrastructure. This is likely to be the case for other countries in Southern and 1. Assess how physical impacts will manifest in social Eastern Africa, too, although similar climate macroeconomic and political context, who might be particularly modeling has not yet been conducted in the region. affected and what consequences might prevail. This assessment can guide targeted interventions and Each country has a “climate window of opportunity” to promote local level engagement on all climate actions. strengthen the effectiveness and inclusiveness of its national climate governance in support of longer-term mitigation and 2. Identify opportunities for a just transition and adaptation objectives. There is little time to waste, however: challenges that may arise, with a focus on those who Some countries, such as Madagascar and Mozambique, might be at risk of harm and exclusion from mitigation already face severe climate hazards so frequently that it will and adaptation transitions, in order to promote their be increasingly difficult to get ahead of escalating risks— positive development in the face of the changes. particularly when there is so much to rebuild from the latest disasters. Conflict, violence, and political instability can also 3. Include an assessment of local governance systems in disrupt efforts to enhance climate resilience, and actually climate-focused institutional assessments. This will enable exacerbate vulnerability. a clear identification of capacity gaps for local advocacy and accountability of climate policies and programs. These findings have important implications for climate and development finance institutions, including the World Bank, Sustained engagement with academic and other experts as governments need strong support to better understand can help ensure that governments and their development and address social vulnerability. The recommendations partners stay up to date with knowledge of the social that follow aim to inform project design as well as broader dimensions of climate change. As discussed in Section 2, the country engagement on macroeconomic policy, development understanding of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity planning, climate policies and strategies, and institutional has evolved over time, and it continues to evolve through capacity building. Government officials and other readers may additional research, policy debate, and experience on the also find them useful. ground. It is important that new insights flow into knowledge products and technical assistance. 6.1 Strengthen the knowledge base on social vulnerability Complementing aggregate macroeconomic modeling with qualitative analysis that explores the demographic This report is based on social vulnerability analyses produced and spatial dimensions of climate change and transition for Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs), a impacts can provide valuable perspectives. Perception flagship World Bank product aimed at better integrating surveys, interviews, and citizen assemblies can help improve climate change mitigation and adaptation with countries’ understanding of how local communities see, among others, i) broader development and poverty alleviation efforts, in line trade-offs and complementarities between current and future Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 59 ecosystem services; ii) trade-offs and complementarities 3. Strengthen support to local community engagement between livelihoods and conservation; iii) multidimensional in adaptation efforts. Engaging local communities in vulnerabilities and how these may affect decisions around adaptation policy formulation and implementation is the livelihoods and internal migration; and iv) the processes ultimate step to making climate resilience efforts both needed to support positive change towards developmental inclusive and effective. This approach must entail local and climate goals. Ethnographies and interviews can provide financing mechanisms to ensure that communities can insights into how individuals, households, and communities define, lead and implement locally relevant adaptation perceive and respond to climate events and other negative initiatives. shocks. They are likely to be particularly valuable if focused on those most affected by climate impacts. This qualitative 4. Foster and strengthen the local governance information would add valuable texture to national-level cost- platforms where community members can engage benefit analysis of climate change impacts and policies. in climate action advocacy and where their voices will transmit to the national level. This will entail engagement Lastly, it is important to conduct ongoing tracking in real with civil society. time of the links between climate impacts and changes in political, economic and conflict conditions. Too many 5. Ensure that social safety net programs are of the expected causal links between climate impacts and responsive not only to the deepening impoverishment social and political consequences are assumed. The way the that may be caused by climate change, but also to relationships (climate exposure and rise in conflict, climate social exclusion, vulnerabilities, and erosion of adaptive exposure and increased social exclusion) play out needs capacity. tracking in real time. 6. Preemptively assess the social and political 6.2 Integrate social vulnerability consequences of climate impacts to identify key social analysis in country engagement trends that might deepen in future, such as distress migration, gender-based violence, and communal and project design conflict. Be proactive in government engagement to set up institutional arrangements and systems to positively A robust knowledge base is crucial for effective country manage these trends. engagement on climate change and broader development objectives—but the key is to translate it into action. This 7. Strengthen climate and ecological education and means that CCDRs and other reports that address social awareness. Opinion leaders say that the term “climate vulnerability should aim to meaningfully contribute to country change” should have standard translations in local engagement, investment planning, and project design, as they and national languages, and that awareness-raising could potentially reshape investment priorities. initiatives should contextualize the term so that people understand its relevance to their own lives. This can be Drawing on this knowledge, World Bank teams can work with helped through stronger public communications and governments to: education intended to improve understanding about climate impacts and adaptation. 1. Prioritize the needs of socially vulnerable populations and areas that are highly exposed to climate hazards, especially when these overlap (see section 2.2.1). 6.3 Prioritize social inclusion in the pursuit of global public 2. Apply climate-adaptation and development filters to the design of all local investments to ensure that mitigation goods adaptation and development cost-benefit analysis is carried out. This will help identify activities where Vulnerable communities in Southern and Eastern Africa have development and adaptation objectives are aligned contributed minimally to climate change, but in many cases, and also where misalignment may have negative they face significant adverse impacts from the pursuit of consequences for the poorest, which need to be global public mitigation goods—from reforestation and forest mitigated. protection efforts, to the extraction of minerals needed for Understanding Social Vulnerability for more Effective Climate Strategies 60 clean energy technologies (see section 4.4). It is essential to vulnerabilities and inequalities, would have significant minimize such adverse impacts. Development partners can developmental and climate benefits. make a difference by engaging with governments to: 3. Close the financing gap and improve implementation of 1. Ensure that projects involving global public REDD+ programs. While programs such as CAFI are filling mitigation goods have a strong social inclusion the large gap in financing to support forest protection and dimension, with assessments of who might be alternative livelihoods initiatives, additional funding is likely negatively affected by the transition and how they can to be needed to support the region’s reduced dependency instead receive development and poverty alleviation on forest-based resource extraction and provide viable benefits through the projects. agricultural and energy alternatives. More effective forest protection is also needed, including shifting the 2. Strengthen the capacity of countries in the region enforcement approach to working with local communities, to access and receive carbon market funds, while and strengthening independent mechanisms to investigate ensuring this prioritizes financial returns to vulnerable human rights abuses in protected areas; access to legal communities. More developed carbon markets, or counsel for defendants; and monitoring to document equivalent biodiversity markets, have the capacity to violations of fair trial standards. provide significant support to countries in the region, given its abundant but declining biodiversity and forestry 4. Support more effective governance of critical sectors. It resources. How communities benefit from revenues is important to intensify efforts to improve the effectiveness from these markets depends to a significant extent on and inclusiveness of governance in critical sectors, such as governmental and donor rules and the approach taken agriculture, mining, and forest management. by the project developers. Widening these revenues, and ensuring projects meet specific metrics around Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa 61 References Acheampong, A.O., J. Dzator, M. Abunyewah, M.O. Erdiaw- Ayanlade, A., T.A. Smucker, M. Nyasimi, H. Sterly, L.F. Kwasie, and E.E.O. 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