Publication: Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2025: Economic Aftershocks
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2025-06-12
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2025-06-12
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The impacts of the March earthquake are continuing to disrupt lives and livelihoods, exacerbating the already very difficult economic conditions. The World Bank estimates that economic output losses attributable to the earthquake will be equivalent to around 4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) (US 2.6 billion dollars) in the year ended March 2026. The economic aftershocks of the earthquake have struck on the back of ongoing challenges from conflict. Meanwhile, three quarters of firms surveyed by the World Bank in April reported experiencing power outages in April 2025, up from 42 percent during the same period last year. Import compression and a pick-up in agricultural exports resulted in a trade surplus of 2 percent of GDP in the six months to March 2025. Reflecting tight foreign exchange and trade controls, the kyat has stabilized against the US dollar on parallel markets since October 2024. Looking ahead to FY2026-27, growth is expected to pick up to 3 percent, with production recovering from the current weak base. The medium to long-term prospects for living standards are at risk of further decline. Learning losses experienced by current students could result in reduced human capital and a 7 to 15 percent reduction in future lifetime incomes. Recent employment trends show a decline in formal sector opportunities, with more educated workers moving into agriculture and out of higher productivity sectors. Such trends threaten Myanmar’s long-term development and poverty reduction prospects. Even with some economic recovery next year, households affected by conflict and earthquake impacts are likely to face significant longer-term challenges.
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“World Bank. 2025. Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2025: Economic Aftershocks. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43329 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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