Publication: Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum
Date
2008-07
ISSN
Published
2008-07
Author(s)
Elbadawi, Ibrahim
Milante, Gary
Pischedda, Costantino
Abstract
This paper presents a game theory model
of the strategic interaction between Khartoum and Juba
leading up to the referendum on Sudan's partition in
2011. The findings show that excessive militarization and
brinksmanship is a rational response for both actors,
neither of which can credibly commit to lower levels of
military spending under the current status quo. This
militarization is often at the expense of health and
education expenditures, suggesting that the opportunity cost
of militarization is foregone economic development. These
credibility issues might be resolved by democratization,
increased transparency, reduction of information
asymmetries, and efforts to promote economic and political
cooperation. The paper explores these devices, demonstrating
how they can contribute to Pareto preferred outcomes in
equilibrium. The authors characterize the military
expenditure associated with the commitment problem
experienced by both sides, estimate its costs from data for
Sudan, and identify the opportunity cost of foregone
development implied by continued, excessive, and
unsustainable militarization.
Citation
“Elbadawi, Ibrahim; Milante, Gary; Pischedda, Costantino. 2008. Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum. Policy Research Working Paper No. 4684. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/4f918038-1d3d-573c-9d98-8931cbb3b308 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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