Publication: Timor-Leste Economic Report, October 2020: Towards a Sustained Recovery
Loading...
Files in English
2,279 downloads
Date
2020-10-31
ISSN
Published
2020-10-31
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This report uses innovative data to investigate the economic impacts of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Timor-Leste is a relatively data-scarce country, which poses a considerable challenge for real-time evidence-based policymaking. Data on overall economic activity is published on an annual basis, household and enterprise surveys are infrequent, and administrative data is often inaccessible or incomplete. Proxy indicators are typically used to gauge recent economic trends. However, the breadth and depth of the shocks induced by Coronavirus (COVID-19) call for the use of novel high frequency data sources to better monitor their economic impacts. Therefore, this report uses data on human mobility, online and social media, transport traffic and satellite imagery. These alternative sources of data provide a valuable complement to existing official statistics by offering additional insights on economic activity. Findings from existing Coronavirus (COVID-19) surveys are also reported.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. Timor-Leste Economic Report, October 2020: Towards a Sustained Recovery. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34748 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, April 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04)Economic activity is expected to contract in 2020, owing to political uncertainty and the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Despite a return to economic growth in 2019, failure to approve a state budget for 2020, renewed political uncertainty, and the global COVID-19 outbreak have all considerably weighed down prospects for 2020. In addition, recent heavy rains caused floods that affected thousands of people and many businesses. Given these mutually reinforcing negative effects, the GDP growth forecast for 2020 has been lowered from 4.6 percent (as projected in the October 2019 report) to -4.8 percent. However, this projection is still subject to much uncertainty. In particular, the economic impacts of COVID-19 will largely depend on the direct impact of the virus, the scope and duration of the public health measures adopted, as well as the economic policy response. The Special Focus discusses some of the economic transmission channels and puts forward a set of policy interventions that may help cushion the impact on businesses and people’s livelihoods.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, May 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)COVID-19 is spreading quickly throughout the country, despite early successes in containing the virus. Meanwhile, flooding and landslides have caused considerable human loss and economic damage. These compounding health and humanitarian emergencies are undermining the economic recovery in 2021, but the recent approval of a revised budget can alleviate the negative impacts. Economic activity has been weakened by the recent COVID-19 outbreak and the impact of Cyclone Seroja. GDP is forecast to grow by 1.8 percent in 2021, which is lower than the 3.1 projected in October 2020. The economy is expected to recover in the medium-term, but structural constraints will remain an impediment to faster growth. Reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness are critical. COVID-19 and recent floods have highlighted and exacerbated underlying weaknesses in Timor-Leste’s health system. Disruptions to health and nutrition services arising from these crises may have a multiplier effect on access to care for routine and essential care, setting back the country’s progress on health outcomes and human capital development.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, October 2019(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12-12)Following a two-year recession, economic activity is expected to recover in 2019. Public spending, which has traditionally been the key driver of economic growth, increased by 16 percent in the first half of 2019 when compared to the same period in 2018. Higher spending was predominantly focused on current expenditure, while capital spending was more subdued. Only a more dynamic private sector will enable the economy to grow faster and in a more sustainable way. Policy priorities for increasing firm performance include increasing firm access to finance, skills and affordable inputs, as well as easing firm entry and reducing regulatory uncertainty. Additional policy areas for reform may include the foreign direct investment (FDI) regime (affecting entry) and the insolvency and creditor rights system (affecting exit).Publication Liberia Economic Update, June 2020(World Bank, Monrovia, 2020-06)When the global COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic emerged in early 2020, Liberia was already facing a challenging domestic and external environment. Weak consumption and declining output had caused the Liberian economy to contract by an estimated 2.3 percent in 2019. Meanwhile, the inflation rate reached 27 percent, eroding consumer purchasing power and undermining household welfare, and fiscal consolidation and monetary tightening further weakened domestic demand during the second half of 2019. However, the economy was poised for a recovery in 2020, underpinned by a positive global and regional outlook, a renewed focus on responsible macroeconomic management, improved governance, and structural reform. The IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) prograPublication Kenya Economic Update, November 2020(World Bank, Nairobi, 2020-11-24)Kenya’s economy has been hit hard by COVID-19, severely affecting incomes and jobs. The economy has been exposed through the dampening effects on domestic activity of the containment measures and behavioral responses, and through trade and travel disruption (affecting key foreign currency earners such as tourism and cut flowers). Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.4 percent in H1 2020 year-on-year(y/y), compared to growth of 5.4 percent in H1 of 2019. This reflects a worse-than-anticipated Q2 GDP outturn, mainly due to a sharp reduction of services sector output, especially education. As a result, the economy is projected to contract by 1.0 percent in 2020 in the baseline scenario, and by 1.5 percent in a more adverse scenario. This revision essentially adopts the adverse scenario outlined in the April 2020 update, reflecting the more severe impact of the pandemic to date than had been initially anticipated, including on the measured output of the education sector following the closure of institutions in March. The special focus topic finds that the pandemic increased poverty by 4 percentage points (or an additional 2 million poor) through serious impacts on livelihoods, by sharp decreases in incomes and employment. The unemployment rate increased sharply,approximately doubling to 10.4 percent in the second quarter as measured by the KNBS Quarterly Labor Force Survey. Many wage workers who are still employed face reduced working hours, with average hours decreasing from 50 to 38 hours per week. Almost 1 in 3 household runbusinesses are not currently operating, and between February and June average revenue from household run businesses decreased by almost 50 percent. This has exacerbated food insecurity, and elevated pain and human suffering. In response to the crisis, the government has deployed both fiscal and monetary policies to support the healthcare system, protect the most vulnerable households, and support firms to help preserve jobs,incomes and the economy’s productive potential. Tax revenue dropped below target, due to the marked slowdown in economic activity, as well as tax relief as part of the government’s fiscal response package. At the same time, expenditures were raised to strengthen the capacity of the healthcare system to manage infections, protect the most vulnerable households, and support businesses.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Scaling Up Handwashing Behavior : Findings from the Impact Evaluation Baseline Survey in Vietnam(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-11)The goal of global scaling up handwashing is to reduce the risk of diarrhea and therefore increase household productivity by stimulating and sustaining the behavior of handwashing with soap at critical times in the lives of 5.4 million people in Peru, Senegal, Tanzania, and Vietnam, where the project has been implemented to date. The structure of this report proceeds as follows: In chapter one author provide an overview of the global scaling up handwashing and global scaling up rural sanitation projects, as well as background on the handwashing project in Vietnam. Chapter two details the methodology that underlies the impact evaluation, and provides details on the sampling design, sample selection, and field work protocols. The baseline findings for general household characteristics, handwashing behavior, child health, and child growth are presented in depth in chapter three. In chapter four authors conclude with a summary of the next steps of the impact evaluation study.Publication Sierra Leone Public Expenditure Review 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)This Fiscal and Debt Sustainability Note, the first module of a programmatic multisectoral Public Expenditure Review (PER), reviews the recent macro-fiscal challenges, analyzes their causes and consequences and provide policy options for enhancing the conduct of fiscal and PFM policies in the country. The first part of this module draws on the Boost database to provide a comprehensive overview of the budget covering both revenues and expenditures. It analyzes the composition of the budget (based on economic and functional classifications) and discusses the most critical PFM issues the country faces. It also assesses budget execution and the efficiency of public expenditure. The second part of the module focuses on fiscal risks and their implications for medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability. It examines the recent evolution of public debt, its main drivers and relationship to economic growth. It describes recent reforms to address fiscal and debt vulnerabilities and how these reforms have been affected by the global pandemic. It also analyzes the main fiscal risks with a focus on those stemming from State-Own Enterprises (SOEs), local councils, litigations, natural disasters, and health crises. This part uses simulations to analyze the most likely evolution of the public debt path over the next 20 years under alternative risk scenarios. Finally, the module proposes practical and actionable policy options to help improve the macro-fiscal environment over the short term and preserve debt sustainability over the medium term.Publication The Quality of the Legal System, Firm Ownership, and Firm Size(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-03)Employment in developing countries is disproportionately concentrated in very small firms. The authors examine the extent to which the distribution of firm size is related to the quality of the legal system using data from Mexico. They combine Lucas' (1978) model of firm size with Himmelberg, Hubbard, and Love's (2001) consideration of idiosyncratic risk in a framework in which the distribution of entrepreneurial talent and aversion to idiosyncratic risk combine to determine the optimal size of firms. Their data allows them to focus on the differential impact of the legal system on proprietorships and corporations. Moreover, by focusing on firms in a single country, the data draw attention to the importance of variation in the administration of justice and the enforcement of legal verdicts. The authors find that Mexican states with more effective legal systems have larger firms. A one-standard deviation improvement in the quality of the legal system increases the average firm size by about 10-15 percent. The impact of the legal system is greatest in sectors in which proprietorships dominate. This pattern is consistent with better legal systems increasing the investment of firm owners by reducing the idiosyncratic risk they face. All of these findings are upheld when the authors instrument for institutional variables using the log of indigenous population in 1900 and the active presence of the drug trade in the state.Publication Poverty Reduction and Growth : Virtuous and Vicious Circles(2006)Poverty Reduction and Growth is about the existence of these vicious circles in Latin America and the Caribbean about the ways and means to convert them into virtuous circles in which poverty reduction and high growth reinforce each other. This publication is organized as follows: Chapter 1: From vicious to virtuous circle; Chapter 2: Dimensions of well-being, channels to growth; Chapter 3: How did we get here? Chapter 4: The relative roles of growth and inequality for poverty reduction; Chapter 5: Pro-poor growth in Latin America; Chapter 6: Does poverty matter for growth? Chapter 7: Subnational dimensions of growth and poverty; Chapter 8: Microdeterminants of incomes: labor markets, poverty, and traps?; and Chapter 9: Breaking the cycle of underinvestment in human capital in Latin America.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.