Publication: Timor-Leste Economic Report, October 2019: Unleashing the Private Sector
Loading...
Files in English
598 downloads
Published
2019-12-12
ISSN
Date
2019-12-10
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Following a two-year recession, economic activity is expected to recover in 2019. Public spending, which has traditionally been the key driver of economic growth, increased by 16 percent in the first half of 2019 when compared to the same period in 2018. Higher spending was predominantly focused on current expenditure, while capital spending was more subdued. Only a more dynamic private sector will enable the economy to grow faster and in a more sustainable way. Policy priorities for increasing firm performance include increasing firm access to finance, skills and affordable inputs, as well as easing firm entry and reducing regulatory uncertainty. Additional policy areas for reform may include the foreign direct investment (FDI) regime (affecting entry) and the insolvency and creditor rights system (affecting exit).
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2019. Timor-Leste Economic Report, October 2019: Unleashing the Private Sector. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32818 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, April 2019(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04)The Timor-Leste Economic Report provides an up-to-date assessment of key economic developments, presents the World Bank's forecasts and outlook for Timor-Leste and provides an in-depth examination of selected policy issues relevant to Timor-Leste. The TLER is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Timor-Leste’s evolving economy.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, October 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-31)This report uses innovative data to investigate the economic impacts of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Timor-Leste is a relatively data-scarce country, which poses a considerable challenge for real-time evidence-based policymaking. Data on overall economic activity is published on an annual basis, household and enterprise surveys are infrequent, and administrative data is often inaccessible or incomplete. Proxy indicators are typically used to gauge recent economic trends. However, the breadth and depth of the shocks induced by Coronavirus (COVID-19) call for the use of novel high frequency data sources to better monitor their economic impacts. Therefore, this report uses data on human mobility, online and social media, transport traffic and satellite imagery. These alternative sources of data provide a valuable complement to existing official statistics by offering additional insights on economic activity. Findings from existing Coronavirus (COVID-19) surveys are also reported.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, October 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)The economic outlook for 2018 remains uncertain, partly hinging on the execution of the state budget. Economic activity was sluggish in the first half of 2018, as inferred by lacklustre public spending, weakened trade levels, and slower credit growth. The recently approved 2018 budget proposes a substantial expenditure increase in the last four months of the year, to offset eighteen months of constrained spending. This presents a significant challenge for the public sector and budget execution rates may be lower than usual, due to the limited time to spend funds. Moreover, a proportion of the 2018 budget will be used to settle previous financial commitments for activities already undertaken, expenditure arrears, rather than create new economic activity. Overall, it is unlikely that this expansionary fiscal stance will considerably influence domestic economic activity in the short-term. GDP is forecast to grow by 0.8 percent in 2018, under a fairly positive scenario for budget execution. Political uncertainty affected consumer and business confidence until recently, but private investment may pick up in late 2018. The construction sector is set to recover, partly through the Tibar Bay Port, as well as agriculture if weather conditions are favourable. The broader implications of two consecutive years of disappointing economic performance are yet to be gauged, such as the impact on employment levels and earnings, labour productivity, and household incomes. In the medium-term, economic growth is expected to recover by 2019.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, May 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)COVID-19 is spreading quickly throughout the country, despite early successes in containing the virus. Meanwhile, flooding and landslides have caused considerable human loss and economic damage. These compounding health and humanitarian emergencies are undermining the economic recovery in 2021, but the recent approval of a revised budget can alleviate the negative impacts. Economic activity has been weakened by the recent COVID-19 outbreak and the impact of Cyclone Seroja. GDP is forecast to grow by 1.8 percent in 2021, which is lower than the 3.1 projected in October 2020. The economy is expected to recover in the medium-term, but structural constraints will remain an impediment to faster growth. Reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness are critical. COVID-19 and recent floods have highlighted and exacerbated underlying weaknesses in Timor-Leste’s health system. Disruptions to health and nutrition services arising from these crises may have a multiplier effect on access to care for routine and essential care, setting back the country’s progress on health outcomes and human capital development.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, April 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04)Economic activity is expected to contract in 2020, owing to political uncertainty and the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Despite a return to economic growth in 2019, failure to approve a state budget for 2020, renewed political uncertainty, and the global COVID-19 outbreak have all considerably weighed down prospects for 2020. In addition, recent heavy rains caused floods that affected thousands of people and many businesses. Given these mutually reinforcing negative effects, the GDP growth forecast for 2020 has been lowered from 4.6 percent (as projected in the October 2019 report) to -4.8 percent. However, this projection is still subject to much uncertainty. In particular, the economic impacts of COVID-19 will largely depend on the direct impact of the virus, the scope and duration of the public health measures adopted, as well as the economic policy response. The Special Focus discusses some of the economic transmission channels and puts forward a set of policy interventions that may help cushion the impact on businesses and people’s livelihoods.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28)Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.