Publication:
Financial Development and Fragility: A Clustering Analysis

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (14.67 MB)
173 downloads
English Text (78.29 KB)
30 downloads
Published
2024-07-17
ISSN
Date
2024-07-17
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper explores the potential correlations between financial development and state fragility, using a sample of 137 countries observed over the period from 1998–2019. The countries are grouped into clusters that capture the different joint states of financial development and fragility. The paper introduces a new switching methodology to further allow for a qualification of the evolution of countries in terms. of fragility scores with and without controlling for other variables. Irrespective of the precise methodology and state fragility measure as used in this paper, the findings indicate a negative correlation between financial development and state fragility, after controlling for several forms of observed and unobserved heterogeneity.
Link to Data Set
Citation
João, Igor Custodio; Calice, Pietro; Lucas, Andre; Schaumburg, Julia. 2024. Financial Development and Fragility: A Clustering Analysis. Policy Research Working Paper; 10850. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41895 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Cuesta Leiva, Jose Antonio; Huff, Connor
    Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. This paper helps fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the study applies simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability frameworks, and controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The study also finds robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear weaker in areas most affected by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Kim, Galileu; Kumar, Tanu; Ramalho, Rita; Russell, Stuart
    State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.
  • Publication
    South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08) Baez, Javier E.; Kshirsagar, Varun
    Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.
  • Publication
    Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Adarov, Amat; Kose, M. Ayhan; Vorisek, Dana
    The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key development objectives amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the number of job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls continuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the case for a significant investment push has never been stronger. Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets and developing economies has eroded. Since the global financial crisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s, with both public and private investment weakening. Foreign direct investment inflows—a critical source of capital, technology, and managerial know-how—have also fallen sharply and become increasingly concentrated, leaving low-income countries with only a marginal share. The risks of further retrenchment are significant, as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels continue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum will require ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen institutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen trade and investment integration—the foundations of a supportive business climate. At the same time, international cooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment to a predictable system of cross-border trade and investment flows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sustained technical assistance, is essential to help emerging markets and developing economies—especially low-income countries and economies in fragile and conflict situations—bridge financing gaps and implement the domestic reforms needed to restore investment as an engine of growth, jobs, and development.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    A Comparative Analysis of Financial Sector Reforms and Policies in Countries Exiting Fragility
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18) Calice, Pietro; Demekas, Dimitri G.
    Financial sector reforms are part of the strategies that countries follow to exit from fragility, but the content and focus of these reforms and the priority they are given relative to other policies vary from country to country. Based on an archival search of publicly available World Bank and the International Monetary Fund country documents, this paper investigates and compares the experiences of seven countries (Armenia, Benin, Cambodia, the Dominican Republic, Rwanda, Senegal, and Viet Nam) that successfully and sustainably exited fragility during the 1980s and 1990s, focusing on the financial sector reforms that were implemented around the time of the exit. The review suggests a few broad patterns. Regardless of the original causes of fragility, successful exit strategies always included financial sector reforms, which invariably focused on short-term goals: stopping bank losses, establishing monetary control, and re-starting the engine of financial intermediation and the flow of credit to the economy. Longer-term financial development goals, such as financial deepening, were recognized as important, but the requisite policy interventions came later, after the financial sector had been restored to health and was able to discharge its basic functions. Crucially, substantial, hands-on, long-term technical assistance and capacity building were in all cases necessary to ensure the long-term success of these reforms.
  • Publication
    Displaced Persons from Ukraine in Moldova
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-13) World Bank
    As the number of forcibly displaced persons around the world reached a record 120 million in June 2024, the World Bank continues to deepen its efforts to understand and respond to the unique needs of these vulnerable populations. In recognition of the level of priority this issue has taken on in The World Bank, the 2023 edition of the annual World Development Report (WDR) focused on the topic of Migrants, Refugees and Societies. This WDR includes a specific call for a medium-term perspective that addresses the needs of refugees and prioritizes clear global and national responsibility sharing. The World Bank’s support for people displaced outside of their home countries is underpinned by its adherence to the Global Compact on Refugees, adopted by the United Nations in 2018. Most recently, The World Bank adopted a new corporate scorecard which includes the provision of services and livelihoods to displaced persons and host communities as one of the organizations’ 15 main results indicators.4 This study aims to identify the key impacts, needs of refugees and their host communities in Moldova and recommendations for addressing these needs. It builds on previous and ongoing assessments by various agencies, including UN agencies, to better understand the current and future implications of refugee movements and settlements in Moldova, especially in terms of service delivery, infrastructure, household livelihoods and local government capacity. This report’s survey focused on LPAs because these local officials are the primary government points of contact for displaced population in their communities as well as the interlocutors between displaced persons and national government departments. This study focuses on the perspectives of LPAs and the open-ended expressed needs and experiences of displaced persons.
  • Publication
    Building Evidence to Enhance the Welfare of Refugees and Host Communities - Insights from the Kenya Longitudinal Socioeconomic Study of Refugees and Host Communities
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-28) World Bank
    The Kenya Longitudinal Socioeconomic Study of Refugees and Host Communities (K-LSRH) is the first nationally comparable survey of registered refugees and hosts in Kenya, offering a unique opportunity to inform the socioeconomic integration of refugees, including the Government of Kenya's proposed shift from camps to integrated settlements. Unlike previous surveys that lacked comparable host-refugee data, K-LSRH includes both refugee and host communities, providing comprehensive insights into their living conditions and challenges. The first wave of K-LSRH was conducted between June 2022 and 2023, covering refugees in Kakuma Refugee Camp, Dadaab Refugee Complex, Kalobeyei Integrated Settlement, as well as urban refugees in Nairobi, Mombasa, and Nakuru. The survey instrument addresses various household level, individual-level, and children’s outcomes. It delves into less understood themes such as psychosocial wellbeing and trust, aiming to advance knowledge and programming in these areas.
  • Publication
    A Development Approach to Advancing Gender Engagement and Addressing Gender Inequalities in Fragile, Conflict, and Violent Situations
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-15) World Bank
    Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) affects women, men, girls, and boys differently. FCV tends to exacerbate gender disparities in education, health, economic participation, voice, and agency. The number of people living in FCV settings is at a record high due to ongoing and new conflicts. FCV countries make up the ten worst-performing countries on several indicators that are critical for gender equality, including maternal mortality, school enrollment, and reproductive health care. There are several existing processes and instruments that task teams can draw on to maximize gender outcomes in FCV contexts. The objective of this approach paper is to identify practices and approaches in the design, implementation, monitoring, and measuring of interventions and operations that respond to the differentiated needs of women, girls, men, and boys, and contribute towards addressing gender inequalities in FCV countries. The approach paper features selected operational highlights showcasing regional experiences, lessons learned, and best practices on addressing gender inequalities in FCV settings. Additionally, it includes an action plan outlining steps to elevate gender issues and responses beyond individual projects to more strategic country engagements.
  • Publication
    Dire Strait
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-07) World Bank
    MENA FCV Economic Series Brief No. 1 is the first of a new series of World Bank notes analyzing recent economic and social developments and special issues in Fragile, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) situations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21st Century
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-04) Isser, Deborah H.; Raballand, Gaël; Watts, Michael John
    What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent.
  • Publication
    Data Transparency and Growth in Developing Economies during and after the Global Financial Crisis
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12) Islam, Asif Mohammed; Lederman, Daniel
    The study explores the effects of data transparency on economic growth for developing economies over a unique time period—at the onset of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and thereafter. Data transparency is defined as the timely production of credible statistics as measured by the Statistical Capacity Indicator. The paper finds that data transparency has a positive effect on real gross domestic product per capita during a period of considerable uncertainty. The estimates indicate an elasticity of the magnitude of 0.03 percent per year, which is much larger than the elasticity of trade openness and schooling in the estimation sample. The empirics employ a variety of econometric estimators, including dynamic panel and cross-sectional instrumental variables estimators, with the latter approach yielding a higher estimated elasticity. The findings are robust to the inclusion of several factors in addition to political institutions and exogenous commodity-price and external debt-financing shocks.
  • Publication
    Economic Governance Improvements and Sovereign Financing Costs in Developing Countries
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05) Abate, Girum; Brown, Michael; Sienaert, Alex; Thomas, Mark
    Low- and middle-income country governments are increasingly tapping the global debt capital markets. This is increasing the amount of finance available for development, but at a considerably higher cost than traditional external borrowing on concessional terms. Using a novel methodology based on estimating sovereign credit ratings using the Moody’s scorecard, and examining the associations between these ratings and the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment scores, this paper examines how making improvements in the quality of economic policies and institutions can help lower governments’ financing costs. This method aims to overcome the small-sample problem due to the number of rated developing country sovereigns still being relatively limited (although growing). Better economic governance Country Policy and Institutional Assessment scores are associated with better estimated ratings and materially lower financing costs; on average, improvements that are sufficient to increase the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment economic governance indicator score by one point are associated with interest costs that are lower by about 40 basis points, even setting aside the direct impact on ratings of better governance indicators. There are many reasons why improving governance is a good thing. Among them is the potential payoff to the public purse — savings of $40 million or more on a standard $1 billion, 10-year bond.
  • Publication
    Statistical Performance Indicators and Index
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03) Pullinger, John; Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Serajuddin, Umar; Stacy, Brian
    The World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index has been widely employed to measure country statistical capacity since its inception two decades ago. This paper builds on the existing advantages of the Statistical Capacity Index, conceptually and empirically, to offer new statistical performance indicators and the Statistical Performance Index, which can better measure a country’s statistical performance. The new index has clearer conceptual motivations, employs a stronger mathematical foundation, and significantly expands the number of indicators and countries covered. The paper further provides empirical evidence that illustrates the strong correlation of the new index with other commonly used development indicators of human capital, governance, poverty, and inequality. The framework can accommodate future directions to improve the index as the global data landscape evolves
  • Publication
    Evolution of the World Bank’s Thinking on Governance
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01) Lateef, K. Sarwar
    The preparation work for the 2017 World Development Report on Governance and the Law in 2016 will coincide with the 25th anniversary of the World Bank’s decision to broaden its ongoing work on public sector management to embrace key issues of governance in the Bank’s borrowing countries. This paper provides a broad overview of the major Bank reports on governance that went through a review process at a sufficiently high level in the institution that they can reasonably be described as reflecting the Bank’s considered views at the time on the subject. The objective is to review the evolution of the Bank’s thinking on governance and assess the relevance and effectiveness of the work and its implications for the forthcoming World Development Report. Section two of this paper begins with a brief account of how the Bank came to focus on issues of governance, reviewing the major upheaval of governance in many of the Bank’s borrowing countries in the 1980s, the legal constraints the Articles of Agreement impose on the Bank’s work on governance, and a brief overview of the Bank’s initial policy statement on governance issued to the Bank’s Board in June 1991. Section three reviews major Bank work on governance as reflected in successive World Development Reports and examines the Bank’s analysis of the issue of corruption, reviewing how the Bank’s thinking on this symptom of poor governance has evolved. Section four steps back to assess what the Bank got right and some of the issues it missed or failed to address adequately. Section five draws attention to the dramatic changes experienced by the developing world in these past 25 years, and points to the need to better understand the implications of these changes for the governance context facing developing countries.