Publication: Density and Disasters : Economics of Urban Hazard Risk
Loading...
Published
2009-12-01
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Author(s)
Deichmann, Uwe
Editor(s)
Abstract
Today, 370 million people live in cities in earthquake prone areas and 310 million in cities with high probability of tropical cyclones. By 2050, these numbers are likely to more than double. Mortality risk therefore is highly concentrated in many of the world s cities and economic risk even more so. This paper discusses what sets hazard risk in urban areas apart, provides estimates of valuation of hazard risk, and discusses implications for individual mitigation and public policy. The main conclusions are that urban agglomeration economies change the cost-benefit calculation of hazard mitigation, that good hazard management is first and foremost good general urban management, and that the public sector must perform better in generating and disseminating credible information on hazard risk in cities.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Deichmann, Uwe; Lall, Somik V.. 2009. Density and Disasters : Economics of Urban Hazard Risk. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5161. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4348 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18)This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.Publication The Lasting Effects of Working while in School(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-18)This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the long-term effects of work-study programs, leveraging a randomized lottery design from a national program in Uruguay. Participation leads to a persistent 11 percent increase in formal labor earnings, observable seven years after the program. Effects are stronger for youth who participate during pivotal educational transitions and are larger for vulnerable youth and men, while remaining positive for women and non-vulnerable youth. The program is highly cost-effective, with average impacts exceeding those of job training programs and comparable to early childhood investments.Publication It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22)As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Climate Resilient Cities : A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009)Climate resilient cities a primer on reducing vulnerabilities to disasters is prepared as a guide for local governments in the East Asia Region to better understand the concepts and consequences of climate change; how climate change consequences contribute to urban vulnerabilities; and what is being done by city governments in East Asia and around the world to actively engage in learning, capacity building, and capital investment programs for building sustainable, resilient communities. The primer is applicable to a range of cities from those starting to build awareness on climate change to those with climate change strategies and institutions already in place. It is now undeniably evident that the global climate is changing as a result of human induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Increased levels of heat trapped in the atmosphere have set off a process that is modifying weather patterns, which in turn affect temperatures, sea levels, and storm frequencies. This will impact cities and other urban areas, especially those in coastal zones. Asia already experiences the greatest number of flood events worldwide. Since the beginning of the 21st century, Asia has experienced more than 550 floods affecting over 850 million people. Out of China's estimated urban population of 400 million, 130 million live in coastal cities that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. The high incidence of hydro-meteorological and other disasters affecting urban areas, particularly in vulnerable regions, is a challenge to local officials and their communities in being prepared and proactive in reducing their GHG emissions and in addressing increasingly frequent and extreme climate change events.Publication The Exposure, Vulnerability, and Ability to Respond of Poor Households to Recurrent Floods in Mumbai(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11)This paper examines poor households in the city of Mumbai and their exposure, vulnerability, and ability to respond to recurrent floods. The paper discusses policy implications for future adaptive capacity, resilience, and poverty alleviation. The study focuses particularly on the poor households, which tend to have greater exposure and vulnerability to floods and limited ability to respond given the constraints on physical and financial resources. The study seeks to understand the implications of the fact that poor households are more likely than non-poor households to be located in flood-prone areas. The study used the land use maps for the selected flood-prone areas to determine the extent and spread of poor and non-poor households and other types of assets and activities in areas with chronic and localized flooding. Primary data were obtained through detailed household surveys to understand the vulnerability and impacts of the extreme floods of July 2005, recurrent floods and the ability of households to respond and cope. The study examined the option of relocation to flood-free areas and identified factors that influence families’ decisions regarding relocation. The study finds that a significantly large proportion of poor households are located near areas with chronic and localized flooding. These households are either below the poverty line or have low incomes and reside in informal settlements or old and dilapidated structures. Future climate risks are likely to put greater burden on the poor and push them further into poverty unless well directed efforts are made to protect them.Publication A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters : Adapting Experiences from Vietnam’s Cities to Other Cities(World Bank, 2012-01-26)This workbook is intended to help policy makers in developing countries plan for a safer future in urban areas in the face of natural disasters and the consequences of climate change. It is based on the experiences of three cities in Vietnam, Can Tho, Dong Hoi, and Hanoi, that worked with international and local experts under World Bank supervision to develop local resilience action plans (LRAPs) in 2009-10. An LRAP is a detailed planning document that reflects local concerns and priorities based on the experiences of the past and projections for the future. It is not a wish list of projects that may never be completed because they are too costly or lack political support. Rather, it should be a realistic document that describes and establishes priorities for specific steps that can be undertaken in the near term to adapt to both climate related and other hazards. Regardless of their size, location, political orientation, or technical capacity, other cities can learn from the experiences of these pilot cities to develop their own LRAPs. The purpose of this workbook is to adapt the initial experiences of Can Tho, Dong Hoi, and Hanoi to benefit the national government and other communities in Vietnam and beyond. Indeed, the process described in this workbook was later adopted in the cities of Iloilo, the Philippines; Ningbo, China; and Yogyakarta, Indonesia, and the concluding chapter of this workbook draws on some of the lessons learned in these cities. However, the workbook, while generalizable to other contexts, largely reflects the Vietnamese experience.Publication Reconstruction and Recovery Planning in the Aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)(Washington, DC, 2014-10-01)This report summarizes the just-in-time advice provided by the World Bank to the government of the Philippines (GoP) immediately after Typhoon Haiyan. The Bank helped the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) develop the Reconstruction Assistance on Yolanda (RAY) plan, providing recommendations and sharing international good practice on key aspects of recovery and reconstruction, including institutional arrangements for recovery implementation, use of remote damage assessment, resilient recovery, and reconstruction of housing, buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. The report is divided into six chapters: 1. Rapid Damage Assessments: Using Remote Sensing Technologies and Risk Information to Help Determine Preliminary Reconstruction Needs 2. Buildings and Infrastructure: Good Practices for Resilient Reconstruction 3. Housing: Lessons Learned from Large-Scale Housing Reconstruction Programs 4. Building Back Better: Restoring Key Sectors, Local Economy, and Livelihoods 5. Roads and Bridges: Enabling Operational Continuity of Lifelines for Evacuation and Post - Disaster Response 6. Institutional Structures: Good Practices and Options for Effective Planning and Implementation of Reconstruction and Recovery. International experience shared through the engagement includes lessons learned from community driven reconstruction in Indonesia and Pakistan; shelter and housing recovery in Haiti; emergency reconstruction in Turkey; resilient infrastructure and hurricane contingency planning in Florida; resilient reconstruction of buildings in California, Haiti, Japan, and Turkey; remote damage assessment in Pakistan; and resilient road and highway management in East Asia and New Zealand.Publication Safe and Resilient Infrastructure in the Philippines(Washington, DC, 2014-08)The report presents the results of a detailed vulnerability assessment and summarizes the prioritization methodology developed to guide investment decisions on the strengthening of critical assets in Metropolitan Manila. With support from the World Bank, the engagement on Safe and Resilient Infrastructure has carried out a preliminary structural assessment of over seven hundred public school campuses and twenty hospitals retained by the Department of Health in Metro Manila. The report also highlights the lessons learned from seismic retrofitting programs implemented throughout the world, as showcased during the Forum on Safe and Resilient Infrastructure that took place in Manila, Philippines, in October 2013. This report is divided into three sections. First, it establishes the technical principles of earthquake risk management. Second, it details the experience of the Philippines to date in developing an integrated earthquake risk management program, focusing on the methodology and results of a vulnerability assessment and prioritization conducted under the Safe and Resilient Infrastructure Program. Last, it reviews international experience with earthquake risk management programs of various scales and scopes, through the cases of California, Romania, Turkey, and Indonesia. The key messages of the report are as follows: An integrated approach to earthquake risk management can strengthen key buildings and infrastructure and reduce the damaging effects of future disasters in the Philippines. Earthquake risk management and strengthening programs initiated by both the public and private sectors in many countries often consist of three phases: risk audit, risk assessment, and implementation. Several key technical components must be considered in the design of a phased earthquake risk management program, including a prioritization methodology.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.