Publication: Malawi Economic Monitor, January 2025: The Rising Cost of Inaction
Loading...
Published
2025-02-11
ISSN
Date
2025-02-11
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Malawi’s economic recovery remains fragile due to the slow implementation of macroeconomic adjustment reforms and a series of recent shocks. Food insecurity remains a major concern due to weak harvests from 2022 to 2024 and the likelihood of a challenging 2024-25 season. Inflation is gradually easing but remains high due to rising food, housing, and utility prices, as well as the rapid growth of the money supply. Malawi’s banking sector remains highly profitable, as it benefits from government borrowing and high interest rates, but vulnerabilities are emerging. Despite high profits and apparent stability, stress tests reveal vulnerabilities. While the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) has determined that Malawi’s banking sector could weather individual shocks, multiple simultaneous shocks can present a threat. Continued vigilance, risk management, and diversification will be crucial to reinforce resilience. This 20th edition of the Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) finds that the cost of inaction is rising, as continued delays in addressing widening fiscal and current account deficits increase the scale of the eventual adjustment and heighten the risk of further deterioration.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2025. Malawi Economic Monitor, January 2025: The Rising Cost of Inaction. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42788 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Malawi - Mineral Sector Review : Source of Economic Growth and Development(World Bank, 2009-07-01)This mineral sector review examines the mineral sector as a potential source of growth and development in Malawi. In seeking the World Bank's assistance the Government of Malawi was particularly interested in confirming the potential for mineral sector growth, identifying which constraints to the development of the sector need to be addressed by the Government and suggesting strategies to foster a positive contribution by the mineral sector to sustainable development and poverty reduction. This report is organized into four chapters. Chapter one examines the potential for mineral sector growth in the short, medium and long term and indicates the direct and indirect economic and development benefits that could result. The remaining chapters address constraints that could prevent the mineral sector's full potential from being realized, especially those that can be addressed by government action, focusing on the development of efficient and effective legal, regulatory and institutional arrangements for managing the mineral sector (chapter two); the design of robust mineral revenue generation and management regimes (chapter three); and the creation of sound arrangements for the environmental and social management of the mineral sector (chapter four). Each chapter concludes with a summary of the main findings and recommendations for action with an indicated timeframe.Publication Sector Licensing Studies(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011)This report is intended to provide guidance on best practices in mining licensing, based on examples from low, middle and high income countries in Africa, Asia, North America, and South America. It is not a 'how-to guide' or a licensing implementation toolkit, but rather identifies certain common features of successful mining licensing regimes worldwide that other national or sub-national jurisdictions might usefully incorporate in new mining laws and regulations or revisions or existing ones. The case studies and other examples of good and bad practice are intended to provide a cross-section by geography and by income level, and they demonstrate that the prevalence of good and bad practices is not simply a function of income level. Tanzania, one of the poorest countries in the world, has in many respects a better licensing regime than either South Africa or the U.S. State of Wisconsin. In considering these complex issues, it has proven difficult to confine the discussion purely to questions of licensing. Discussion of licensing invariably invokes reference to overall policy and investment climate issues, environmental protection, labor law, taxation, national and sub-national jurisdiction, land tenure, and much more. This report makes no attempt to address all of these in detail but refers to them in reference to their interactions with and effect on, licensing itself. Far more detailed research on mineral policy, taxation, investment climate, and other issues has been carried out, some of it referred to in this report and cited in the footnotes and bibliography.Publication Extractive Industries and Sustainable Development : An Evaluation of World Bank Group Experience(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2005)This evaluation finds that with its global mandate and experience, comprehensive country development focus, and overarching mission to fight poverty, the World Bank Group is well positioned to help countries overcome the policy, institutional, and technical challenges that prevent them from transforming resource endowments into sustainable benefits. Furthermore, the World Bank Group's achievements are many. On the whole, its extractive industries projects have produced positive economic and financial results, though compliance with its environmental and social safeguards remains a challenge. Its research has broadened and deepened understanding of the causes for the disappointing performance of resource-rich countries. Its guidelines for the mitigation of adverse environmental and social impacts have been widely used and appreciated. More recently, it has begun to address the challenge of country governance with a variety of instruments.Publication Republic of Congo : Mining Sector Review(Washington, DC, 2012-10)The Republic of Congo covers an area of 342,000 square kilometers (km), of which forests occupy three-fifths, the rest being dominated by savannah. Oil has long been the principal resource of Congo. Since the first exploitations were launched in 1970, the oil sector has become the dominant economic activity and major source of income for the state. The growth rate in real terms was 8.8 percent in 2010, with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reaching $4532. In 2010, GDP nearly reached two digit growths, driven up by a significant increase of oil production, by reinforcement of non-oil activities, in particular forest industry, construction and telecommunications. The Government made development of the mining sector a priority to diversify the economy. The present review of the mining sector, led by World Bank in partnership with the Ministry of Geology and Mining, aims to update and understand further these characterizations, to document the prospects and challenges of mining development and to prioritize actions that optimize the sector's contribution to economic diversification and sustainable development. This review of mining sector helped to characterize the issues of governance in following four areas: (1) promotion of geological heritage and mineral resources; (2) facilitating entry into production; (3) continuous improvement of the political, institutional, legal and regulatory framework; and (4) optimization of the sector's contribution to diversification. After this study, an action plan to improve the mining sector can be outlined.Publication Increasing Local Procurement By the Mining Industry in West Africa : Road-test version(World Bank, 2012-01)Regional organizations and national governments are increasingly focusing on enhancing the benefits from mining sector investment. The Africa Union's African Mining Vision 2050 outlines a new resource-based industrialization and development strategy for Africa, based on downstream, upstream, and side stream linkages, and both Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and West African Economic Monetary Union (WAEMU) have developed mineral development strategies. National governments are also increasingly looking for ways to maximize benefits derived from investment in mining. This report aims to support efforts to maximize local procurement by the mining sector by providing policy recommendations for national governments and regional organizations. It also aims to provide guidance to the private sector and civil society on steps for increasing local procurement. The report takes a regional approach, driven by the potential to realize economies of scale and build on areas of competitiveness across the West African region. This document presents the outcomes of the World Bank project to support local procurement by the mining sector in West Africa. The project objectives were to (i) inform government policy related to supporting increased local procurement by the mining industry; and (ii) inform public debate/facilitate knowledge exchange between all major stakeholders, including regional organizations (ECOWAS and WAEMU), mining companies, civil society, and other supporting institutions (financial institutions, partners, training institutes, etc.). This report is the result of desk research, interviews, and analysis across West Africa, in particular in Ghana, Guinea, Senegal, Mali, and Burkina Faso; field research in Ghana, Guinea, and Senegal; research into benchmark countries; and stakeholder consultation, including three workshops held in Ghana and Guinea in September 2011. It also draws on research into global best practice. This focus on local procurement represents a shift in policy approach: rather than concentrating on the contribution by mining companies through taxes, governments are increasingly exploring ways in which mines can become more closely integrated with local economies. This report provides guidance to policymakers for setting policies and developing regulations to create a supporting framework for increasing local procurement.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.Publication Comoros Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18)The Union of the Comoros (The Comoros) has significant vulnerability to climate change-related risks but has considerable opportunities to strengthen preparedness and resilience against these challenges. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, the Comoros is the 29th-most vulnerable country to climate change and the 163rd most ready to adapt (out of 191). The Comoros archipelago is exposed to many natural hazards that adversely affect the country’s natural capital, people, and physical infrastructure. In 2014, the economic cost of climate-related disasters was estimated at 5.7 million dollars annually, equivalent to 9.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between 2018 and 2023, as many as 11 tropical depressions or cyclones impacted the country, with Cyclone Kenneth causing the greatest damage, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, resulting in total economic growth falling from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019. More than 345,000 people (40 percent of the population) were affected by the cyclone, with 185,000 people experiencing severe impacts and 12,000 people displaced. However, there is an opportunity for the country to grow more robust and shock-responsive, and to establish pre-positioned funding mechanisms to enhance future crisis response efforts. For the Comoros, adaptation and climate-resilient development are the key climate change focus areas, with the country projected to face 836 million dollars 2050 in additional costs due to climate-related impacts. Current plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the Comoros include efforts to improve water management, strengthen coastal protection, and develop climate-smart agriculture practices. Given the country’s reliance on its natural resource base for economic growth and mobility, protection of these resources from climate change will be essential for promoting resilient growth and development. In addition to growing the adaptive capacity of the country’s natural resource sectors, strategic economic diversification will be important to help minimize future climate impacts, and development activities will need to be undertaken in such a way as to attract low-carbon co-benefits. The Union of the Comoros is committed to addressing climate change through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and national priorities. The country’s NDC (which was revised in 2021 for a ten-year horizon) sets ambitious targets, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent by 2030. The country also plans to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in its energy portfolio, reaching 33 MW by 2030. This will not only promote low-carbon development but also reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal, which currently make up 95 percent of the energy mix. Additionally, the Comoros has declared its intention to increase CO2 removals by 47 percent by 2030, compared to BAU.Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23)Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.Publication Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-22)Mongolia’s development prospects are uniquely challenged by both the impacts of climate change and the global shift toward a low-carbon economy. The country’s efforts toward decarbonization pose significant challenges given the structurally high-emission intensity of its economy. While challenging, climate action also presents Mongolia with opportunities to achieve important development benefits. The effects of climate risks and the shift away from coal will have diverse impacts across different regions, communities, and socioeconomic levels. The report assesses the critical interconnections between Mongolia’s development ambitions and climate change action and identifies ways to transition to a more economically diversified, inclusive, and resilient development path. It highlights key climate and transition risks affecting Mongolia’s future development and presents a pathway to enhance climate mitigation and adaptation. The report also makes a case for strengthening policies to enhance resilience to climate change and ensure a just transition, particularly for the most vulnerable. The report is structured as follows: section 1 gives introduction. Section 2 delves into the linkages between development and climate in Mongolia and presents model-based findings on the economic and poverty impacts of climate change under different scenarios. Section 3 covers four in-depth sectoral analyses. The first two mainly focus on adaptation to climate change in the agriculture and water sectors. The third considers prospects for the extraction sector, while the fourth sectoral analysis focuses on decarbonizing power and heat generation. Section 4 shifts the focus to how the government can boost resilience for climate-vulnerable populations. Section 5 outlines options for mobilizing private and public financing and private investments to support the green transition. Section 6 examines the existing institutional and governance structure for climate action and presents recommendations to improve its effectiveness, and section 7 concludes with a framework for prioritizing the policy actions outlined in this report.