Publication: Sudan Economic Update, May 2025: The Economic and Social Consequences of the Conflict - Charting a Path to Recovery
Loading...
Published
2025-06-09
ISSN
Date
2025-06-09
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Almost two years into the conflict that began in April 2023, Sudan remains in a deepening crisis with widespread social and economic consequences. The country is facing a severe humanitarian crisis with the ongoing conflict claiming more than 61,000 lives in Khartoum state alone between April 2023 and June 2024. The conflict has led to the world’s largest displacement, with 12.9 million forcibly displaced, including 8.9 million internally and 3.8 million in neighboring countries including Chad, Egypt and South Sudan. Military operations have caused extensive damage to residential housing across Sudan, particularly in Khartoum, and forced 31 percent of urban households to relocate to other states. The report is structured as follows: part I covers the recent macroeconomic developments; part II focuses on the agriculture sector as a main vehicle for alleviating the impact of the conflict and supporting recovery; and part III concludes by discussing the way forward and offering policy options to support post-conflict recovery efforts.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2025. Sudan Economic Update, May 2025: The Economic and Social Consequences of the Conflict - Charting a Path to Recovery. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43314 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Sudan - Stabilization and Reconstruction : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Main Text(Washington, DC, 2003-06-30)This Country Economic Memorandum is the first economic report in a decade. It gives priority to updating knowledge about the evolution of social and economic developments during the 1990s. It reviewareas of progress in macroeconomic reforms and the lack of success in governance and institutional reforms. Substantial reforms were undertaken in this period , but the civil war continued to have a serious negative impact on Sudan's people and its economic prospects. While the results of the reforms have been promising, particularly in the area of macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization, the distribution of economic wealth needs to improve. Although there has not been any national household survey since 1978, social indicators point to low levels of welfare throughout Sudan, with some indicators well below those in Sub-Saharan Africa. among the many issues facing the Sudanese economy are these: There has been high growth but skewed distribution. Stabilization has been costly in social terms: expenditures were cut by more than 50 percent relative to gross domestic product (GDP), causing considerable reductions in social services and infrastructure development. Key services were decentralized, delegated to states and local communities, which had neither the revenues nor the administrative capacity for these tasks. High poverty rates persist. Social inequalities threaten to undermine macroeconomic stability. Moreover, the civil war was costly in terms of human suffering. Millions are internally displaced, there are almost a million refugees in camps in neighboring countries, the death toll is estimated at 2 million, and warring armies continue to claim substantial resources. However, peace negotiations look encouraging. For peace to be sustained, it must be accompanied by economic and governance reforms, and a formula for equitable sharing of resources and power must be found for resolving the major root causes of decades of civil war. Reconstruction and development needs are enormous and will require external financing. Even after debt rescheduling, additional resources will be needed and the Sudan will urgently be expected to put measures in place to improve public resources management. As for the major sectors, infrastructure needs major rehabilitation and development, agricultural reforms need to be pursued, improved social services are a high priority, and war-affected areas face special difficulties like food insecurity. The needs of women require special attention, particularly in those parts of the country where women suffer severely from the violence and lawlessness that emerged as a result of the prolonged civil war. Many are widows and many have suffered also from rape, insecurity, and other traumas. the average ratio iof adult women to adult men is two to one in war-affected areas in southern Sudan, and only one out of ten women is literate,Publication Sudan - Stabilization and Reconstruction : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 2. Statistical Appendices(Washington, DC, 2003-06-30)This Country Economic Memorandum is the first economic report in a decade. It gives priority to updating knowledge about the evolution of social and economic developments during the 1990s. It reviewareas of progress in macroeconomic reforms and the lack of success in governance and institutional reforms. Substantial reforms were undertaken in this period , but the civil war continued to have a serious negative impact on Sudan's people and its economic prospects. While the results of the reforms have been promising, particularly in the area of macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization, the distribution of economic wealth needs to improve. Although there has not been any national household survey since 1978, social indicators point to low levels of welfare throughout Sudan, with some indicators well below those in Sub-Saharan Africa. among the many issues facing the Sudanese economy are these: There has been high growth but skewed distribution. Stabilization has been costly in social terms: expenditures were cut by more than 50 percent relative to gross domestic product (GDP), causing considerable reductions in social services and infrastructure development. Key services were decentralized, delegated to states and local communities, which had neither the revenues nor the administrative capacity for these tasks. High poverty rates persist. Social inequalities threaten to undermine macroeconomic stability. Moreover, the civil war was costly in terms of human suffering. Millions are internally displaced, there are almost a million refugees in camps in neighboring countries, the death toll is estimated at 2 million, and warring armies continue to claim substantial resources. However, peace negotiations look encouraging. For peace to be sustained, it must be accompanied by economic and governance reforms, and a formula for equitable sharing of resources and power must be found for resolving the major root causes of decades of civil war. Reconstruction and development needs are enormous and will require external financing. Even after debt rescheduling, additional resources will be needed and the Sudan will urgently be expected to put measures in place to improve public resources management. As for the major sectors, infrastructure needs major rehabilitation and development, agricultural reforms need to be pursued, improved social services are a high priority, and war-affected areas face special difficulties like food insecurity. The needs of women require special attention, particularly in those parts of the country where women suffer severely from the violence and lawlessness that emerged as a result of the prolonged civil war. Many are widows and many have suffered also from rape, insecurity, and other traumas. the average ratio iof adult women to adult men is two to one in war-affected areas in southern Sudan, and only one out of ten women is literate,Publication Assessment of Development Needs of Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons in Eastern Sudan(Washington, DC, 2011-02-11)East Sudan has received a continuous influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees over the last forty years. Mass influxes were witnessed during years when the region experienced natural catastrophes as droughts and floods, or an escalation of tensions and conflict in neighboring countries, mainly Eritrea and Ethiopia. Presently there is still a steady but smaller in numbers influx of refugees, mostly from Eritrea, but with an apparent change in their social composition and expectations. Present day internal population movements relate to more conventional forms of migration within Sudan, that is, households in search of work and economic opportunities. Still, the situation of the large number of IDPs that moved to the area over 15 years ago and are living in camps is precarious and needs urgent attention. Presently there are not the basic conditions required to provide a durable solution to the refugees in a protracted situation in eastern Sudan. To a large extent that also applies to IDPs with long permanence in camps; there are not conditions to achieve self-reliance by most of the displaced population given the situation of their locations in eastern Sudan in terms of natural environment and its capacity to support sustainable agriculture and other urban and rural economic activities. Within the overall mission of the World Bank, its strategic objective in contributing towards the durable solution of forced displacement situations is to bring the affected countries and displaced population back to the path of peace and development, enabling the application of pro-poor policies and fostering economic growth. Under these conditions, the World Bank will be in a better position to engage the affected countries through its regular operations.Publication Sudan Social Safety Net Assessment(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05)The Sudanese population has suffered from years of conflict, and deep-seated security issues have severely hampered Sudan s long-term economic stability and social development. As a consequence, Sudan is struggling to meet its MDGs. Since the secession of South Sudan, Sudan has lost a considerable part of its oil production and fiscal revenues. At the same time, the Government recognizes social safety nets as important instruments for reducing poverty. This report provides an analysis of the state of social safety nets in Sudan which shows that Sudan s existing safety net programs are limited in coverage, lack coordination, as well as monitoring and evaluation. The report suggests (i) reallocation of savings from the fuel subsidy reform to targeted pro-poor safety net programs; (ii) strengthening of the existing safety net through monitoring the outcomes, strong controls and social accountability, and a culture of evaluation, and (iii) development of a coherent National Social Protection Policy.Publication South Sudan Economic Update, December 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)The South Sudan economy had recorded a strong growth pickup before the COVID-19 pandemic, with real GDP growth estimated at 9.3% in FY2019/20 but a contraction of -3.4% is projected in FY2020/21. Oil production was estimated at 62.1 million barrels in FY2019/20, representing a 26.5% increase from 49.1 million barrels realized in FY2018/19. However, oil production is expected to decline to 58.4 million barrels in FY20/21, as COVID-19 restrictions impacted movement of machinery and OPEC+ production cuts affected production. With COVID-19 restrictions delaying new investment, activity in the oil sector is not expected to improve until FY2022/23 when oil production is projected to rise to 60.2 million barrels. At the same time, the country has experienced concurrent shocks with floods, locust infestation, and higher subnational conflict intensity contributing to a dire economic outlook. Consequently, the economy is projected to contract by -3.4% in FY2020/21, driven by subdued economic activity in both oil and non-oil sectors. Beyond FY2020/21, recovery is projected on the assumption of a rebound in the global economy (that will support higher oil prices, investment, and remittances), commitment to a credible reform process, sustainability of peace, and resilience to climatic shocks
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Comoros Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18)The Union of the Comoros (The Comoros) has significant vulnerability to climate change-related risks but has considerable opportunities to strengthen preparedness and resilience against these challenges. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, the Comoros is the 29th-most vulnerable country to climate change and the 163rd most ready to adapt (out of 191). The Comoros archipelago is exposed to many natural hazards that adversely affect the country’s natural capital, people, and physical infrastructure. In 2014, the economic cost of climate-related disasters was estimated at 5.7 million dollars annually, equivalent to 9.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between 2018 and 2023, as many as 11 tropical depressions or cyclones impacted the country, with Cyclone Kenneth causing the greatest damage, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, resulting in total economic growth falling from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019. More than 345,000 people (40 percent of the population) were affected by the cyclone, with 185,000 people experiencing severe impacts and 12,000 people displaced. However, there is an opportunity for the country to grow more robust and shock-responsive, and to establish pre-positioned funding mechanisms to enhance future crisis response efforts. For the Comoros, adaptation and climate-resilient development are the key climate change focus areas, with the country projected to face 836 million dollars 2050 in additional costs due to climate-related impacts. Current plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the Comoros include efforts to improve water management, strengthen coastal protection, and develop climate-smart agriculture practices. Given the country’s reliance on its natural resource base for economic growth and mobility, protection of these resources from climate change will be essential for promoting resilient growth and development. In addition to growing the adaptive capacity of the country’s natural resource sectors, strategic economic diversification will be important to help minimize future climate impacts, and development activities will need to be undertaken in such a way as to attract low-carbon co-benefits. The Union of the Comoros is committed to addressing climate change through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and national priorities. The country’s NDC (which was revised in 2021 for a ten-year horizon) sets ambitious targets, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent by 2030. The country also plans to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in its energy portfolio, reaching 33 MW by 2030. This will not only promote low-carbon development but also reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal, which currently make up 95 percent of the energy mix. Additionally, the Comoros has declared its intention to increase CO2 removals by 47 percent by 2030, compared to BAU.Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23)Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.Publication Gabon Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-01)Gabon has a unique opportunity to drive inclusive growth, reduce poverty, and build a resilient post-oil economy, with climate action accelerating progress toward these goals. The country’s main development challenge is achieving higher growth and poverty reduction, as stronger growth is needed regardless of projected climate shocks to create jobs, raise living standards, and enable a viable post-oil economy. While pursuing growth-promoting economic reforms, climate action that prioritizes people must remain central to its development pathway. However, climate change risks exacerbating poverty and regional inequalities in a country already facing long-term challenges in expanding economic opportunities and basic public services, especially in rural areas. Climate shifts compound these challenges, making stronger private sector-led growth driven by reforms essential for resilience, diversification, job creation, and poverty reduction, though targeted investments in adaptation will still be required to mitigate climate shocks. Using a whole-of-economy approach, the Gabon Country Climate Development Report (CCDR) estimates that climate change impacts could result in GDP losses of 3.5 to 5.3 percent per year through 2050 compared to a business-as-usual baseline trajectory.Publication Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.