Publication: Timor-Leste Economic Report, July 2023: Ways to Harvest Prosperity
Loading...
Date
2023-08-25
ISSN
Published
2023-08-25
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Timor-Leste’s economy continued its recovery in 2022, expanding by 3.9 percent, fueled by public consumption and investment. Private investment rose from an exceptionally low level while net exports continued to be a drag on growth. Headline inflation soared in March 2023 at 9.6 percent, spurred by significant increases in food and non-food prices. High inflation is part of a global trend driven by prices of tradable goods. Within Timor-Leste, the government’s policy of enforcing higher excise taxes on tobacco products, implementing import taxes, and applying excises to sugar and sugary beverages, partially drove the inflationary trend. To advance a reform agenda, the new government may want to consider institutionalizing fiscal consolidation through robust fiscal rules. Both revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization efforts should not only be maintained but also enhanced. Given that significant increases in public spending have had a limited impact on Timor-Leste’s medium-term economic growth, it is possible to sustain growth levels with a reduced budget.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2023. Timor-Leste Economic Report, July 2023: Ways to Harvest Prosperity. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40269 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Timor-Leste Social Assistance : Public Expenditure and Program Performance Report(Washington, DC, 2013-06-24)The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste is a young, post-conflict nation endowed with significant oil revenues. Timor-Leste has one of the highest birth rates in the world (2.41 percent population growth) with over 44 percent of the population below 15 years of age (Timor-Leste Census, 2010). Since the 2006 crisis, the Government of Timor-Leste has shown a clear commitment to social assistance. Globally, poverty persistence is closely related to major life-cycle disadvantages resulting in low human capital outcomes, and yet large-scale poverty remains unaddressed by current social protection efforts. This expenditure review and performance evaluation report is part of the technical assistance provided to Timor-Leste's Ministry of Social Solidarity (MSS) in response to the lack of any national level evaluation of the safety nets system since its inception. To that end, this study seeks to assess the social assistance policy, as well as the performance of the main MSS social assistance programs. More specifically, the aims are to: (1) determine whether existing programs are efficient, effective and sufficient in addressing main vulnerabilities; (2) assess the adequacy and composition of the allocation of financial resources for delivery of government social assistance; (3) review operational and administrative issues; and (4) make recommendations for improving the delivery of social safety nets. Some of the questions that this report seeks to answer include: what are the main risks facing the vulnerable groups in Timor-Leste?; what types of programs are in place to address those risks?; is the range of programs and their financial allocations appropriate for the country's needs?; is the institutional arrangement adequate?; are these programs effective and reaching the intended beneficiaries?; and are they implemented cost-effectively? The report is organized as follows: chapter one gives context, purpose and conceptual framework. Chapter two describes the attributes of the poorest 40 percent and the main vulnerabilities and risks that low-income families in Timor-Leste face. Chapter three provides a historical overview of the social assistance policy and programs that emerged after the 2006-2007 conflict. A summary of levels and trends in aggregate public expenditure on safety nets, composition of spending as well as program-specific budget analysis is presented in chapter four. Chapter five assesses performance of the safety nets by analyzing coverage, targeting effectiveness, and generosity. Chapter six examines impact and targeting efficiency using simulation techniques. Chapter seven assesses implementation capacity, and business processes, and in particular, the following: ID systems, enrollment, payments arrangements and monitoring and evaluation. Chapter eight concludes with implications for social response and policy considerations.Publication Timor-Leste Poverty Assessment : Poverty in a New Nation - Analysis for Action, Volume 1. Main Report(Washington, DC, 2003-05)Timor-Leste has achieved enormous progress in rehabilitating its economy, reconstructing its infrastructure, reintegrating its refugees and building the key elements of a sustainable political process in an environment of internal peace. It now faces many challenges of nation-building and of overcoming the deprivation affecting the lives of the poor. This report written in two volumes lays out the challenge of poverty reduction in Timor-Leste. It is based on the first nationally-representative household survey collected during August to December 2001. The report's objectives are modest: to set a baseline for the new country on the extent, nature and dimensions of poverty; and to assist the decision making of the newly elected government and its efforts in formulating, implementing and monitoring its Poverty Reduction Strategy. The overall objective was not to lay out the elements of poverty strategy but rather to present evidence on the basis of which the Timorese can define and refine their own poverty reduction strategy. The key challenge lies now in formulating a poverty monitoring plan that includes both quantitative and participatory elements, and lays out the institutional arrangement for data analysis and reporting to ensure that the collected data inform policy making and program design.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, April 2019(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04)The Timor-Leste Economic Report provides an up-to-date assessment of key economic developments, presents the World Bank's forecasts and outlook for Timor-Leste and provides an in-depth examination of selected policy issues relevant to Timor-Leste. The TLER is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Timor-Leste’s evolving economy.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03)Gross domestic product (GDP)1 growth is expected to have fallen sharply in 2017 to a projected -1.8 percent from 5.3 percent the year before. This contraction is driven by a reversal of trend in government spending. In the last six months, the political impasse has worsened, with the President declaring a ‘serious institutional crisis’ and dissolving Parliament in January 2018. The current government has not been able to pass its rectification budget for 2017 nor a budget for 2018 to date. The resulting tight budget envelope has led to a sharp reduction in government expenditure of some 24 percent year-on-year, especially felt in the last three months of the year. With government expenditure making up about 75 percent of GDP, weakening expenditure has had a significant downwards impact on growth in 2017. Offshore petroleum production has continued to gradually decline over 2017 as existing fields are steadily depleted, while coffee exports were lower in 2017 due to poor weather conditions. International arrivals by air continued to grow, suggesting that the international visitor market has held up. Private consumption has been more robust in 2017, but investment, both public and private, has declined and foreign direct investment (FDI) has dried up. There remains an urgent long-term agenda of development in Timor-Leste which a new government program could focus on. Key priority reform areas include addressing the multi-sectoral challenge of severe malnutrition, improving systems of public service delivery, supporting a broadening and diversification of the economy, and putting environmental and fiscal management back on a sustainable path. Existing fiscal reserves provide a golden opportunity to achieve these reforms, but only if they are utilized to support a transition to a long-term sustainable economic and fiscal model.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-12)Timor-Leste faces a defining moment in its economic journey. As the country seeks to transition from petroleum dependency to a more diverse and resilient economy, the stakes cannot be higher. The Petroleum Fund, a lifeline that has sustained much of the national budget, risks depletion by 2035, based on recent Ministry of Finance estimates, unless there are urgent reforms. Ambitious national goals - such as upcoming ASEAN membership - reflect the country’s aspirations to integrate globally and broaden its growth horizons. Yet, these opportunities are weighed down by significant fiscal challenges. More specifically, an expanding national budget that raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and the efficiency of public spending. The question is clear: how can Timor-Leste spend better to fuel sustainable growth while preserving fiscal stability
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, December 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12-01)Given the finite nature of petroleum resources and associated sovereign wealth fund, it iscritical for Timor-Leste to build a strong foundation for sustainable revenue mobilization tofinance public spending on development and poverty reduction. Timor-Leste faces the risks ofa fiscal cliff as, under the current spending trajectories, the Petroleum Fund may be fullyexhausted in about ten years. In line with the recent Government’s efforts, there is an opportunity to collect more revenue using value-added and property taxes. The income tax rate is among the lowest in the world while most excise tax rates are insufficient. The authorities may consider to: (i) introduce a value-added tax (VAT); (ii) raise outdated excise tax rates; (iii) increase income tax rates, with a view to promoting greater alignment with regional peers; (iv) improve revenue administration by modernizing the tax system and investing in capacity; and (v) evaluate the potential of a property tax and reporting on tax expenditures (while planning a gradual phasing out).Publication What Does MFN Trade Mean for India and Pakistan? Can MFN be a Panacea?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06)India and Pakistan, the two largest economies in South Asia, share a common border, culture and history. Despite the benefits of proximity, the two neighbors have barely traded with each other. In 2011, trade with Pakistan accounted for less than half a percent of India's total trade, whereas Pakistan's trade with India was 5.4 percent of its total trade. However, the recent thaw in India-Pakistan trade relations could signal a change. Pakistan has agreed to grant most favored nation status to India. India has already granted most favored nation status to Pakistan. What will be the gains from trade for the two countries? Will they be inclusive? Is most favored nation status a panacea? Should the granting of most favored nation status be accompanied by improvements in trade facilitation, infrastructure, connectivity, and logistics to reap the true benefits of trade and to promote shared prosperity? This paper attempts to answer these questions. It examines alternative scenarios on the gains from trade and it finds that what makes most favored nation status work is the trade facilitation that surrounds it. The results of the general equilibrium simulation indicate Pakistan's most favored nation status to India would generate larger benefits if it were supported by improved connectivity and trade facilitation measures. In other words, gains from trade would be small in the absence of improved connectivity and trade facilitation. The idea of trade facilitation is simple: implement measures to reduce the cost of trading across borders by improving infrastructure, institutions, services, policies, procedures, and market-oriented regulatory systems. The returns can be huge, even with modest resources and limited capacity. The dividends of trade facilitation can be shared by all.Publication Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018)The Democratic Republic of Congo has the third largest urban population in sub-Saharan Africa (estimated at 43% in 2016) after South Africa and Nigeria. It is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% per year, which corresponds to an additional 1 million residents moving to cities every year. If this trend continues, the urban population could double in just 15 years. Thus, with a population of 12 million and a growth rate of 5.1% per year, Kinshasa is poised to become the most populous city in Africa by 2030. Such strong urban growth comes with two main challenges – the need to make cities livable and inclusive by meeting the high demand for social services, infrastructure, education, health, and other basic services; and the need to make cities more productive by addressing the lack of concentrated economic activity. The Urbanization Review of the Democratic Republic of Congo argues that the country is urbanizing at different rates and identifies five regions (East, South, Central, West and Congo Basin) that present specific challenges and opportunities. The Urbanization Review proposes policy options based on three sets of instruments, known as the three 'I's – Institutions, Infrastructures and Interventions – to help each region respond to its specific needs while reaping the benefits of economic agglomeration The Democratic Republic of the Congo is at a crossroads. The recent decline in commodity prices could constitute an opportunity for the country to diversify its economy and invest in the manufacturing sector. Now is an opportune time for Congolese decision-makers to invest in cities that can lead the country's structural transformation and facilitate greater integration with African and global markets. Such action would position the country well on the path to emergence.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-06-28)Buffeted by COVID-19 and Tropical Cyclone Seroja, the non-oil economy grew by 1.5 percent in 2021. A record-high budget with expenditure of nearly 90 percent of GDP bolstered government consumption. A series of fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus measures supported employment and incomes, thereby allowing households to maintain their consumption. On the demand side, gross capital formation shrunk while net exports expanded. The oil economy grew by 8.3 percent, bringing the total economic growth to 4.4 percent.1 The government lifted the pandemic-related state of emergency at the end of November 2021, but challenges remain. Following a relatively brisk start, the vaccination campaign has moved sluggishly in recentmonths. Nevertheless, the authorities have initiated vaccination of children and adolescents between 12 and 18 years old, while booster shots have been made available. There has been a concerning surge of Dengue Fever with 5,000 reported cases (and 54 fatalities) to date since January 2022‒a more than seven-fold increase from the same period a year ago. All restrictions for inbound international vaccinated travelers to Timor-Leste havebeen rescinded. By the end of May 2022, the partly vaccinated and fully vaccinated figures in Timor-Leste stood at 85.4 percent and 73.4 percent, respectively.Publication Vietnam(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05-01)Following from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectiveness from January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratification by the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated its determination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the future global context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chains due to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries in the region. The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However, in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistent economic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves to ratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner, the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) from joining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that must be addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance with Vietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generation of FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that the country maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment. This report explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into the global economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA.