Publication: Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2016: A Geo-Economy of Risks and Reward
Loading...
Published
2016-07
ISSN
Date
2016-07-12
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The geo-economy presents Lebanon with challenges associated with being a nexus for regional fault lines and risks from its dependence on capital inflows. Despite markedly improved security conditions since the start of 2015, anxiety over regional turmoil and potential spillover effectspersist. All the while, Lebanon continues to be, by far, the largest host of Syrian refugees (in proportion to the population). In addition, the economy’s dependence on its diaspora to finance internal and external imbalances exposes Lebanon to economic and political conditions beyond its influence. Despite these challenges and risks, the political process remains impaired with the vacant presidency completing its second year with uncertain prospects of a near-term resolution. On the other hand, a short-term solution has been found to the garbage crisis that has left piles of trash uncollected on the streets across the country since summer 2015. The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2016. Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2016: A Geo-Economy of Risks and Reward. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24660 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-04-20)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro, Headline inflation plummeted from 2.7 percent in 2013 to 1.9 percent in 2014 and is expected to remain tempered over the medium term. Lebanon s economy continues to be exposed to external shocks. The border with Syria is increasingly menacing as coordinated attacks by ISIS and Al Nusra are being launched more frequently from their bases in Syria. Inefficiencies in power generation impose sizable macroeconomic costs on Lebanon. The Lebanese electricity sector has been underperforming for decades with considerable socio-economic costs. The macroeconomic impact has been massive.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-11)A new domestic political stalemate has developed while spillovers from the Syrian conflict further exacerbated. A mid-year lull in the security situation gave a temporary boost to consumer and investor sentiment. Lebanon’s current account deficit remains elevated, albeit lower than during the pre-crisis period. Lebanon’s fiscal position continues to deteriorate. Banque du Liban maintained an expansionary monetary stance to support the economy, while sustaining confidence in the Lebanese pound. Conservatism in financial regulations and private sector banking helped maintain a well-capitalized and resilient domestic banking sector, despite sluggish growth and downgrades by international rating agencies. The expanding political stalemate at home and regional spillovers pose significant downside risk to growth. The Lebanon economic monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon.Publication Albania : Access to Finance for Enterprise Sector(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-06-29)This report was prepared in close collaboration with the Bank of Albania. This report focused on trade, services, and agriculture; however, the limited scope of their operations still leaves a potentially large unmet demand for credit in agriculture. This report focuses on problems related to the operation of Immovable Property Registry System (IPRS) and other institutions and the formalization of property rights and inscription of mortgages. This study believes the reform with most optimum impact on sustainable credit growth will be focused on (i) improving the quality, breadth, and depth of financial intermediation, (ii) growth and development of credit unions and microfinance institutions, and (iii) facilitate the development of new instruments. The authorities will also focus on implementing reforms to become compliant with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) recommendation.Publication Niger : Financial Sector Assessment(Washington, DC, 2010-04-12)Since 1999, the Nigerien authorities have embarked on a program of reform to develop the financial system and ensure its stability in the wake of a regional banking crisis. Despite this progress, much remains to be done to bring the financial sector up to sub-regional standards. The first step is to formulate a financial sector development strategy that will serve as a roadmap for future reforms. Issues of access to financial services are crucial in Niger, in view of indicators that place Niger at the lowest level in the Union (except for Guinea-Bissau). The stability of the financial sector has improved, but still requires vigilance on the part of national and monetary authorities. The country's economic activity is based on agriculture and services, but uranium is Niger's main export. The primary and tertiary sectors account for 42 and 38 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) respectively. Agriculture sustains roughly 80 percent of the population. Industrial activities are extremely limited apart from uranium mining in the north, which accounts for 60 percent of the country's exports on average. The medium-term macroeconomic outlook in Niger appears favorable due to the greater margin for budget maneuvering attributable to debt reduction initiatives and the increased investments in the mining, infrastructure, and agriculture sectors. Niger has a small banking sector with a moderate degree of concentration. The banking sector is not highly concentrated and the customer base is relatively diversified. Four of the 10 banks account for 80 percent of total assets but in relatively equal proportions, which could help competition. The remaining banks are small with limited activity. The two specialized financial institutions that are either state-controlled or controlled by local governments are in the process of privatization or liquidation.Publication Beyond the Sum of Its Parts(Washington, DC, 2010)The world development report 2010 estimates that an additional $200 billion per year of climate-related financing is needed in developing countries between now and 2030 to keep global average temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius. Developing countries face increased financing challenges over coming decades as they seek to pursue economic development along a lower emission trajectory. The goal of this paper is twofold: i) to provide greater information and clarity on these three mitigation-related climate financing instruments available for the World Bank Group (WBG) and their application in the context of specific projects and national policy frameworks; and ii) to draw lessons for the broader development community on how resources from different climate financing instruments can be combined for expanded impact, increased leverage, and enhanced efficiency. This paper represents an initial contribution to this field and will be followed by papers focusing on guarantees for low-carbon growth support for the private sector and the challenges of financing climate resilience and adaptation.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication World Development Report 2014(Washington, DC, 2013-10-06)The past 25 years have witnessed unprecedented changes around the world—many of them for the better. Across the continents, many countries have embarked on a path of international integration, economic reform, technological modernization, and democratic participation. As a result, economies that had been stagnant for decades are growing, people whose families had suffered deprivation for generations are escaping poverty, and hundreds of millions are enjoying the benefits of improved living standards and scientific and cultural sharing across nations. As the world changes, a host of opportunities arise constantly. With them, however, appear old and new risks, from the possibility of job loss and disease to the potential for social unrest and environmental damage. If ignored, these risks can turn into crises that reverse hard-won gains and endanger the social and economic reforms that produced these gains. The World Development Report 2014 (WDR 2014), Risk and Opportunity: Managing Risk for Development, contends that the solution is not to reject change in order to avoid risk but to prepare for the opportunities and risks that change entails. Managing risks responsibly and effectively has the potential to bring about security and a means of progress for people in developing countries and beyond. Although individuals’ own efforts, initiative, and responsibility are essential for managing risk, their success will be limited without a supportive social environment—especially when risks are large or systemic in nature. The WDR 2014 argues that people can successfully confront risks that are beyond their means by sharing their risk management with others. This can be done through naturally occurring social and economic systems that enable people to overcome the obstacles that individuals and groups face, including lack of resources and information, cognitive and behavioral failures, missing markets and public goods, and social externalities and exclusion. These systems—from the household and the community to the state and the international community—have the potential to support people’s risk management in different yet complementary ways. The Report focuses on some of the most pressing questions policy makers are asking. What role should the state take in helping people manage risks? When should this role consist of direct interventions, and when should it consist of providing an enabling environment? How can governments improve their own risk management, and what happens when they fail or lack capacity, as in many fragile and conflict-affected states? Through what mechanisms can risk management be mainstreamed into the development agenda? And how can collective action failures to manage systemic risks be addressed, especially those with irreversible consequences? The WDR 2014 provides policy makers with insights and recommendations to address these difficult questions. It should serve to guide the dialogue, operations, and contributions from key development actors—from civil society and national governments to the donor community and international development organizations.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2021(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-03-24)Today’s unprecedented growth of data and their ubiquity in our lives are signs that the data revolution is transforming the world. And yet much of the value of data remains untapped. Data collected for one purpose have the potential to generate economic and social value in applications far beyond those originally anticipated. But many barriers stand in the way, ranging from misaligned incentives and incompatible data systems to a fundamental lack of trust. World Development Report 2021: Data for Better Lives explores the tremendous potential of the changing data landscape to improve the lives of poor people, while also acknowledging its potential to open back doors that can harm individuals, businesses, and societies. To address this tension between the helpful and harmful potential of data, this Report calls for a new social contract that enables the use and reuse of data to create economic and social value, ensures equitable access to that value, and fosters trust that data will not be misused in harmful ways. This Report begins by assessing how better use and reuse of data can enhance the design of public policies, programs, and service delivery, as well as improve market efficiency and job creation through private sector growth. Because better data governance is key to realizing this value, the Report then looks at how infrastructure policy, data regulation, economic policies, and institutional capabilities enable the sharing of data for their economic and social benefits, while safeguarding against harmful outcomes. The Report concludes by pulling together the pieces and offering an aspirational vision of an integrated national data system that would deliver on the promise of producing high-quality data and making them accessible in a way that promotes their safe use and reuse. By examining these opportunities and challenges, the Report shows how data can benefit the lives of all people, but particularly poor people in low- and middle-income countries.