Publication:
Global Inequality and Economic Growth: The Three Decades before Covid-19 and Three Decades After

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.35 MB)
342 downloads
English Text (72.83 KB)
32 downloads
Date
2025-03-27
ISSN
Published
2025-03-27
Author(s)
Garcia Rojas, Diana C.
Yonzan, Nishant
Editor(s)
Abstract
Global income inequality captures income differences among all individuals around the world. Global inequality around the world increased from 1820 to 1990 as incomes in richer countries grew faster than incomes in relatively poorer countries. However, these trends were reversed over the three decades starting in 1990. Inequality among all citizens of the world decreased as populous and relatively poorer countries, in particular China, reduced the income gap with richer parts of the world. Growth in average incomes played a critical role in this reduction, with differences within countries contributing relatively little. The Covid-19 pandemic abruptly halted the reduction in global income inequality and was responsible for the largest increase in global income inequality in at least three decades. The future of global inequality largely depends on how incomes grow in various parts of the world. If the trends of the last three decades continue, inequality may increase as growth in those countries that drove the reduction in inequality now contributes to increasing inequality, since these countries are in the upper part of the global distribution. However, if poorer countries today grow faster than their richer peers, global inequality could continue to fall. Climate adaptation and mitigation challenges will play an increasing role in shaping country-level growth trends and thus the changes in global income inequality.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Garcia Rojas, Diana C.; Yonzan, Nishant; Lakner, Christoph. 2025. Global Inequality and Economic Growth: The Three Decades before Covid-19 and Three Decades After. Policy Research Working Paper; 11093. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43004 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    From Patriarchy to Policy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Bussolo, Maurizio; Rexer, Jonah M.; Hu, Lynn
    Legal institutions play an important role in shaping gender equality in economic domains, from inheritance to labor markets. But where do gender equal laws come from? Using cross-country data on social norms and legal equality, this paper investigates the socio-cultural roots of gender inequity in the legal system and its implications for female labor force participation. To identify the impact of social norms, the analysis uses an empirical strategy that exploits pre-modern differences in ancestral patriarchal culture as an instrument for present-day gender norms. The findings show that ancestral patriarchal culture is a strong predictor of contemporary norms, and conservative social norms are associated with more gender inequality in the de jure legal framework, the de facto implementation of laws, and the labor market. The paper presents evidence for a political selection mechanism linking norms to laws: countries with more conservative norms elect political leaders who are more hostile to gender equality, who then pass less progressive legislation. The results highlight the cultural roots and political drivers of legalized gender inequality.
  • Publication
    Geopolitics and the World Trading System
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23) Mattoo, Aaditya; Ruta, Michele; Staiger, Robert W.
    Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.
  • Publication
    Rethinking Fiscal Policies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-27) Fuchs Tarlovsky, Alan; Amjad, Beenish; Loayza Grisi, Mario Julian
    This paper examines the redistributive impact of fiscal policy—specifically taxes and transfers—on poverty and inequality in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa: the Arab Republic of Egypt, Djibouti, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and the West Bank and Gaza. Utilizing the Commitment to Equity framework, the analysis evaluates how fiscal interventions alter income distribution across these diverse national contexts. The results indicate that direct cash transfers and social assistance programs are generally effective in reducing poverty and shielding vulnerable populations, while in-kind benefits—particularly in education and healthcare—significantly contribute to mitigating income inequality. In contrast, generalized subsidies, especially in the energy sector, are fiscally burdensome and largely regressive, offering limited equity gains. Indirect taxes, although important for revenue generation, often exacerbate income disparities. The study underscores the need for comprehensive fiscal reforms, including the expansion of well-targeted transfers, adoption of progressive taxation, and reallocation of inefficient subsidies toward investments in human capital. Successful initiatives, such as Egypt’s Takaful and Karama and Jordan’s Takaful and bread subsidy compensation programs, illustrate scalable models of effective redistribution. Moreover, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s progressive tax policies highlight viable pathways to equitable revenue mobilization. Strengthening investment in education and health is essential for promoting long-term equity, enhancing upward mobility, and supporting inclusive and sustainable development across the region.
  • Publication
    Yield Gains from Balancing Fertilizer Use
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Arteaga, Julian; Deininger, Klaus
    As with most agricultural inputs, the optimal use of fertilizer leverages the production complementarities between different types of nutrients. Wide variation in the intensity of nutrient application rates suggests there are potentially large productivity gains to be had from rebalancing fertilizer use across nutrient types even under a fixed expenditure budget. Using detailed information on a large sample of rice fields across three states in eastern India, this paper investigates whether a more balanced use of fertilizer—measured as the ratio of potash to nitrogen applied to a field—can lead to higher yields and revenues. To address the endogeneity of fertilizer application decisions, the analysis exploits the fact that nitrogen-based fertilizers demanded by Indian farmers are mostly produced domestically in a limited number of manufacturing plants, while all potash-based fertilizers must be imported by ship from abroad. Instrumenting for the ratio of potassium-to-nitrogen fertilizer applied on a field with the relative travel distances between farmers’ villages and both the nearest urea production plant and the nearest international port, the paper estimates the impact of more balanced fertilizer use on yields and revenues. The estimates show that at median levels of fertilizer use, and keeping the level of expenditure on fertilizers constant, rebalancing fertilizer application choices such that the potassium-to-nitrogen ratio of fertilizer is doubled would lead to a 4.8 percent increase in yield.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    September 2024 Update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP)
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-11) Aron, Danielle V.; Castaneda Aguilar, R. Andres; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina; Fujs, Tony H. M. J.; Garcia R., Diana C.; Hill, Ruth; Jularbal, Lali; Lakner, Christoph; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Mahler, Daniel G.; Nguyen, Minh C.; Nursamsu, Samuel; Sabatino, Carlos; Sajaia, Zurah; Seitz, William; Sjahrir, Bambang Suharnoko; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K.; Viveros Mendoza, Martha C.; Winkler, Hernán; Wu, Haoyu; Yonzan, Nishant
    The September 2024 update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP) introduces several changes to the data underlying the global poverty estimates. This document details these changes and the methodological reasons behind them. The database now includes 16 new country-years, bringing the total number of surveys to nearly 2,400. This update incorporates new methodologies for measuring global poverty and introduces new indicators of shared prosperity: A Prosperity Gap and the number of economies with high income inequality. It also incorporates two new analytical dashboards: growth incidence curves and poverty decompositions. Depending on the availability of recent survey data, global and regional poverty estimates are reported up to 2022. For the first time, PIP also includes country-level, regional, and global poverty nowcast estimates up to 2024. The September 2024 PIP update presents the poverty and inequality data underlying the forthcoming World Bank’s Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024.
  • Publication
    April 2022 Update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP)
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-04) Castaneda Aguilar, R. Andres; Dewina, Reno; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina; Edochie, Ifeanyi N.; Fujs, Tony H. M. J.; Jolliffe, Dean; Lain, Jonathan; Lakner, Christoph; Ibarra, Gabriel Lara; Mahler, Daniel G.; Meyer, Moritz; Montes, Jose; Moreno Herrera, Laura L.; Mungai, Rose; Newhouse, David; Nguyen, Minh C.; Sanchez Castro, Diana; Schoch, Marta; Sousa, Liliana D.; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K.; Uochi, Ikuko; Viveros Mendoza, Martha C.; Wu, Haoya; Yonzan, Nishant; Yoshida, Nobu
    The April 2022 update to the newly launched Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP) involves several changes to the data underlying the global poverty estimates. Some welfare aggregates have been changed for improved harmonization, and the CPI, national accounts, and population input data have been updated. This document explains these changes in detail and the reasoning behind them. Moreover, a large number of new country-years have been added, bringing the total number of surveys to more than 2,000. These include new harmonized surveys for countries in West Africa, new imputed poverty estimates for Nigeria, and recent 2020 household survey data for several countries. Global poverty estimates are now reported up to 2018 and earlier years have been revised.
  • Publication
    COVID-19 and Economic Inequality
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01) Agrawal, Sarthak; Narayan, Ambar; Bundervoet, Tom; Cojocaru, Alexandru; Davalos, Maria; Garcia, Natalia; Montalva Talledo, Veronica; Lakner, Christoph; Ten, Andrey; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Yonzan, Nishant
    This paper examines the short-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for inequality in developing countries. The analysis takes advantage of high-frequency phone survey data collected by the World Bank to assess the distributional impacts of the pandemic through the channels of job and income losses, food insecurity, and children’s education in the early days of the pandemic and subsequent period of economic recovery leading up to early 2021. It also introduces a methodology for estimating changes in income inequality due to the pandemic by combining data from phone surveys, pre-pandemic household surveys, and macroeconomic projections of sectoral growth rates. The paper finds that the pandemic had dis-equalizing impacts both across and within countries. Even under the assumption of distribution-neutral impacts within countries, the projected income losses are estimated to be higher in the bottom half of the global income distribution. Within countries, disadvantaged groups were more likely to have experienced work and income losses initially and are recovering more slowly. Inequality simulations suggest an increase in the Gini index for 29 of 34 countries in the sample, with an average increase of about 1 percent. Although these short-term impacts on inequality appear to be small, they suggest that projections of global poverty and inequality impacts of COVID-19 under the assumption of distribution-neutral changes within countries are likely to underestimate actual impacts. Finally, the paper argues that the overall inequality impacts of COVID-19 could be larger over the medium-to-long term on account of a slow and uneven recovery in many developing countries, and disparities in learning losses during pandemic-related school closures, which will likely have long-lasting effects on inequality of opportunity and social mobility.
  • Publication
    September 2023 Update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP)
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-10-11) Aron, Danielle Victoria; Castaneda Aguilar, R. Andres; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina; Farfan Betran, Maria Gabriela; Foster, Elizabeth Mary; Fujs, Tony H. M. J.; Jolliffe, Dean; Krishnan, Nandini; Lakner, Christoph; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Mahler, Daniel G.; Moreno Herrera, Laura; Nguyen, Minh C.; Sanchez Castro, Diana M.; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K.; Viveros Mendoza, Martha C.; Wu, Haoyu; Yonzan, Nishant
    The September 2023 update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP) involves several changes to the data underlying the global poverty estimates. In particular, some welfare aggregates have been revised, and the CPI, national accounts, and population input data have been updated. This document explains these changes in detail and the reasoning behind them. Moreover, 63 new country-years have been added, bringing the total number of surveys to more than 2,200. Global poverty estimates are reported up to 2019 and earlier years have been revised. Regional poverty estimates in 2020 and 2021 are reported only for regions with sufficient survey data coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Publication
    The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Inequality and Poverty
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10) Yonzan, Nishant; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Lakner, Christoph
    The COVID-19 pandemic has had catastrophic economic and human consequences worldwide. This paper tries to quantify the consequences of the pandemic on global inequality and poverty in 2020. Since face-to-face household survey data collection largely came to a halt during the pandemic, a combination of data sources is used to estimate the impacts on poverty and inequality. This includes actual household survey data, where available, high-frequency phone surveys, and country-level estimates from the literature on the impact of the pandemic on poverty and inequality. The results suggest that the world in 2020 witnessed the largest increase to global inequality and poverty since at least 1990. This paper estimates that COVID-19 increased the global Gini index by 0.7 point and global extreme poverty (using a poverty line of $2.15 per day) by 90 million people compared to counterfactual without the pandemic. These findings are primarily driven by country-level shocks to average incomes and an increase in inequality between countries. Changes to inequality within countries were mixed and relatively modest.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05) World Bank
    Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Women, Business and the Law 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-04) World Bank
    Women, Business and the Law 2024 is the 10th in a series of annual studies measuring the enabling conditions that affect women’s economic opportunity in 190 economies. To present a more complete picture of the global environment that enables women’s socioeconomic participation, this year Women, Business and the Law introduces two new indicators—Safety and Childcare—and presents findings on the implementation gap between laws (de jure) and how they function in practice (de facto). This study presents three indexes: (1) legal frameworks, (2) supportive frameworks (policies, institutions, services, data, budget, and access to justice), and (3) expert opinions on women’s rights in practice in the areas measured. The study’s 10 indicators—Safety, Mobility, Workplace, Pay, Marriage, Parenthood, Childcare, Entrepreneurship, Assets, and Pension—are structured around the different stages of a woman’s working life. Findings from this new research can inform policy discussions to ensure women’s full and equal participation in the economy. The indicators build evidence of the critical relationship between legal gender equality and women’s employment and entrepreneurship. Data in Women, Business and the Law 2024 are current as of October 1, 2023.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.
  • Publication
    World Bank Annual Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25) World Bank
    This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.