Publication: Taking Stock, December 2011: An Update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Development
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Date
2011-12-06
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2011-12-06
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Prospects for the global economy have become less certain in the second half of 2011, with significant increase in downside risks. Developing countries in East Asia are growing faster than developed countries, but they too are facing challenges due to a combination of reasons including: slower expansion in demand in developed countries; the impact of global uncertainty on investor sentiments; natural disasters; and the withdrawal of stimulus policies. Vietnam's growth slowed in 2011 compared to 2010, though it is still expected to reach around 5.8 percent. The external sector has remained relatively stable. The current account deficit declined in 2011, as export performance outpaced imports and remittances grew robustly. Both import and export values saw a dramatic rise, mostly because of higher commodities prices. External debt remains sustainable, as the current account deficit was more than covered through medium-term capital inflows that are largely non debt-creating (foreign direct investments) or contracted on concessional terms (official development aid). Foreign direct investment inflows continued at a steady pace, although new commitments declined. International reserves increased in the first half of the year while the Vietnamese dong benefitted from a period of relative calm. In the last quarter of the year, however, exchange rate fluctuations increased due to volatility in gold prices, deepening uncertainties and the seasonal increase in demand for foreign currency as the year end approaches. In the longer run, Vietnam's ambition to maintain high growth into the next decade will require as bold a set of reforms as the one adopted with Doi Moi. The challenge is arguably more difficult than the previous one, and few countries in the world have accomplished it. Vietnam is endowed with a young and hard-working labor force. This is a vital asset to meet the country's ambitious goals, if the country manages to equip itself with relevant skills, and match it with necessary capital. It also needs a level-playing field to maximize its potential. As people become more educated and production becomes more sophisticated, demands for predictability, trust and a level playing field will grow. Transparency is a critical element in this. Concentration of economic power in a small number of large firms undermines efforts at creating a level playing field. Large firms and industries that circumvent rules to their advantage are promoting corruption, and undermining efficiency, which damages the country's potential. The governance challenges are complex, but Vietnam's medium term outlook will be much better if they are addressed sooner rather than later.
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“World Bank. 2011. Taking Stock, December 2011: An Update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Development. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27090 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Developments in the global economy in general and in the EAP region in particular are juxtaposed against Vietnam's own economic outcomes and policies to provide a more complete and nuanced picture of the issues.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2012, Volume 2 : Remaining Resilient(Washington, DC, 2012-12)Economies in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region have generally remained resilient in 2012 amidst a lackluster and, at times, volatile external environment. In 2012, the region's economy is projected to grow by 7.5 percent, lower than the 8.3 percent growth recorded in 2011, but set to recover to 7.9 percent in 2013. Growth in EAP is still the highest of any developing region and constitutes almost 40 percent of global growth. With the weakness in global demand for exports, domestic demand has remained the main driver of growth for most economies. In 2012, aside from weak external demand, the region's growth slowdown resulted from China's economic performance, which is projected to reach 7.9 percent in 2012, 1.4 percentage points lower than 2011 and the lowest annual growth rate since 1999. This decline is mainly due to lower domestic demand growth in the first part of 2012, driven by stabilization measures implemented in 2011. East Asia excluding China is expected to grow by 5.6 percent in 2012, one percentage point higher than in 2011. The rebound in economic activity in Thailand following the floods of 2011, strong growth in the Philippines, and relatively mild slowdowns in Indonesia and Vietnam contributed to this increase. Fiscal and monetary policies were generally supporting growth in 2012. More recently, monetary policy rates have rightly been held steady, as most economies now operate at or close to full capacity. For 2013, the authors expect the region to benefit from continued strong domestic demand and a mild global recovery that would nudge the contribution of net exports to growth back into positive territory, a trend projected to continue into 2014. For China, the authors expect this year's monetary easing, local fiscal stimulus and more rapid approval of large investment projects to boost growth to about 8.4 percent. By 2014, China is projected to be growing at around 8 percent, which is in line with the country's potential growth rate. This rate is gradually declining as productivity and labor force growth are tailing off. This edition of the East Asia half-yearly update introduces two new sections one that looks at selected emerging issues in the region, including Myanmar, covered for the first time in this update. The section on the medium term regional development agenda focuses on jobs and disaster risk management.
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