Publication: World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2025: A Longer View
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2025-04-24
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2025-03-03
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East Asia and Pacific (EAP) outpaced most regions in economic growth in 2024. To sustain this momentum and generate jobs, EAP countries must navigate global uncertainty and tackle long-term challenges tied to shifting global integration, climate change, and demographic trends. In its 2025 Regional Economic Update, the World Bank projects that growth in EAP will slow down to 4.0 percent in 2025, compared to 5.0 percent in 2024. Uncertainty around these projections remains high, and growth outcomes will depend on global developments and national policy choices.
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“World Bank. 2025. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2025: A Longer View. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42887 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2013 : A Fine Balance(Washington, DC, 2013-04-25)The developing economies of the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region grew by 7.5 percent in 2012, lower than the 8.3 percent growth recorded in 2011, but still higher than that of any other region. Within the region, available data in the first quarter of the year indicate that external weakness may be abating, while domestic demand remains resilient. The expectation of some stabilization in external demand, coupled with still resilient domestic activity, may be showing in the industrial production and purchasing manager's index numbers, which are generally positive. The growth forecasts for EAP for 2013 and 2014 remain roughly similar to those of December last year. Both the global and regional outlooks are subject to several risks, most of which are by now familiar. Though the developing economies of East Asia are generally well-prepared to absorb external shocks, an emerging concern is the risk of over-heating in some of the larger economies in the region. Policy makers in developing EAP should strive to strike the right balance between managing the near-term risks, and sustaining and increasing inclusive growth in the medium-term by enhancing the underlying productive capacity-human and physical-of these economies.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2012, Volume 2 : Remaining Resilient(Washington, DC, 2012-12)Economies in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region have generally remained resilient in 2012 amidst a lackluster and, at times, volatile external environment. In 2012, the region's economy is projected to grow by 7.5 percent, lower than the 8.3 percent growth recorded in 2011, but set to recover to 7.9 percent in 2013. Growth in EAP is still the highest of any developing region and constitutes almost 40 percent of global growth. With the weakness in global demand for exports, domestic demand has remained the main driver of growth for most economies. In 2012, aside from weak external demand, the region's growth slowdown resulted from China's economic performance, which is projected to reach 7.9 percent in 2012, 1.4 percentage points lower than 2011 and the lowest annual growth rate since 1999. This decline is mainly due to lower domestic demand growth in the first part of 2012, driven by stabilization measures implemented in 2011. East Asia excluding China is expected to grow by 5.6 percent in 2012, one percentage point higher than in 2011. The rebound in economic activity in Thailand following the floods of 2011, strong growth in the Philippines, and relatively mild slowdowns in Indonesia and Vietnam contributed to this increase. Fiscal and monetary policies were generally supporting growth in 2012. More recently, monetary policy rates have rightly been held steady, as most economies now operate at or close to full capacity. For 2013, the authors expect the region to benefit from continued strong domestic demand and a mild global recovery that would nudge the contribution of net exports to growth back into positive territory, a trend projected to continue into 2014. For China, the authors expect this year's monetary easing, local fiscal stimulus and more rapid approval of large investment projects to boost growth to about 8.4 percent. By 2014, China is projected to be growing at around 8 percent, which is in line with the country's potential growth rate. This rate is gradually declining as productivity and labor force growth are tailing off. This edition of the East Asia half-yearly update introduces two new sections one that looks at selected emerging issues in the region, including Myanmar, covered for the first time in this update. The section on the medium term regional development agenda focuses on jobs and disaster risk management.Publication World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update, April 2024: Firm Foundations of Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-01)Most economies in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) are growing faster than the rest of the world but slower than before the pandemic. Slowing global growth, still tight financial conditions, and an increase in trade protection and industrial support in large and rich countries are key aspects of the external environment shaping the region’s economic performance. Amplified public and private debt, constrained macroeconomic policy, and increased policy uncertainty are the major domestic issues. EAP’s current macroeconomic challenges risk obscuring the microeconomic foundations of longer-term growth. Over the last decade, EAP’s growth has been driven by investment and capital deepening rather than by increased productivity of firms. 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Global growth was also affected by supply shocks from geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, supply chain disruptions following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and a slower-than-expected recovery of private demand in crisis-affected countries. More recently, uncertainties over fiscal sustainability in the U.S. and sovereign debt in the Euro zone fed financial volatility and affected investor and consumer sentiment. Domestic demand in East Asian economies has also been softening, driven by the normalization of fiscal and monetary policy, although it remained robust and the largest contributor to growth. We project that real Gross Domestic Product(GDP) in developing East Asia will increase by 8.2 percent in 2011 (4.7 percent excluding China), while growth will slow to 7.8 percent in 2012. Risks are on the downside, however. Based on the still robust current growth projections, the proportion of people living on less than US$2 a day in developing East Asia is expected to decrease to about 24 percent in 2011, down two percentage points from 2010, and an estimated 38 million people are projected to move out of poverty. However, poverty reduction efforts would be hampered in the event of another sudden increase in food prices against a backdrop of slowing income growth. In the short- to medium-term, East Asia's growth prospects are constrained by global uncertainty and by the impact of natural disasters. The slow progress towards resolution of debt problems in the Euro zone intensified investors' concerns over global growth and stability. As capital flowed out of emerging markets into relatively safer havens, portfolio investments reversed and stock markets lost value in East Asia. Markets remain jittery, even after the Euro zone countries agreed on a solution for the sovereign debt and banking problems. Fiscal and financial consolidation in the Euro zone is likely to reduce growth in Europe, and could lead to renewed financial outflows from East Asia as banks shore up their capital coverage. Credit outstanding from European banks to developing East Asia amounts to US$427 billion, or six percent of GDP. But high reserves and current account surpluses protect most East Asian countries against the impact of possible renewed financial stress.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2011, Volume 1 : Securing the Present, Shaping the Future(Washington, DC, 2011-03)Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in East Asia has been moderating after a sharp rebound from the global crisis. The slowdown in growth since mid-2010, even though smaller than earlier projected, has occurred despite a stronger-than-expected recovery in high-income economies and only gradual withdrawal of the monetary and fiscal stimulus across the region. We project real GDP growth will settle to about 8 percent in 2011 and 2012 from about 9.6 percent in 2010. Inflation has become the key short-run challenge for the authorities in the region, complicated by a surge in portfolio capital inflows and rapidly increasing food and commodity prices that hit low-income households disproportionately. For many middle-income countries in East Asia, lowering inflation presents difficult policy choices. Most have eschewed the use of capital controls, and allowing exchange rates to appreciate may protect against importing inflation but jeopardizes international competitiveness. The sharp increase in commodity prices portends increased volatility for the foreseeable future. All commodity prices are on an upswing, some either at all-time highs or at levels exceeding those reached only two years ago. These latest price developments continue the trend that began earlier this decade of a steady climb in real commodity prices, interrupting a decade-long downward trend in the 1990s. Policies to provide incentives and ensure the investment needed to help develop new and greener energy sources, notably with low-carbon emissions and much improved energy efficiency should be a priority for governments in the region. Output growth throughout developing East Asia moderated in the second half of 2010 but was still surprisingly strong. This positive outcome reflected sustained monetary and fiscal stimulus measures and stronger growth in demand abroad, both of which partly offset the return of capacity utilization to pre-crisis levels. Real GDP growth in developing East Asia and Pacific amounted to 9.6 percent for 2010 as a whole 0.7 percentage points higher than our estimate in November 2010.
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Publication Taking Stock, September 2025: Special Focus : Nurturing Viet Nam’s High-tech Talents(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-04)Following strong momentum in the first half of 2025, driven by front-loaded exports, the Vietnamese economy is expected to moderate over the remainder of the year as export growth normalizes, with a forecast real GDP growth of 6.6 percent in 2025. As an export-oriented economy, Viet Nam remains vulnerable to slower global growth and softening demand from major trading partners. Trade-policy uncertainty may also begin to weigh on business and consumer confidence. Over the medium term, growth is projected to ease to 6.1 percent in 2026 before rebounding to 6.5 percent in 2027, supported by a recovery in global trade and Viet Nam’s continued appeal as a competitive manufacturing base. 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This is against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty, particularly in trade policy. The region is far from the frontier in standards of living, largely due to low productivity. This issue of the MENA Economic Update sheds light on a critical engine of productivity growth: the private sector. Businesses create jobs, boost livelihoods, and serve as a bastion of innovation in the economy. The MENA private sector, however, is not dynamic and is ill prepared to absorb shocks. To boost the performance of the private sector, governments in the region may need to rethink their role in engaging with markets including improving competition, the business environment, and the availability of data. Additionally, private sector businesses in the region can increase performance through better management practices and harnessing untapped talent in the region.Publication Reboot Development: The Economics of a Livable Planet(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-01)“Reboot Development: The Economics of a Livable Planet” explores how the foundational natural endowments of land, air, and water—long taken for granted—are under growing threat, putting at risk the very progress they helped create. For generations, natural resources have powered development, supporting health, food, energy, and economic opportunity. Today, strains on these resources are intensifying. This report argues that failing to maintain a livable planet is not merely a distant environmental concern, but a present economic threat. Drawing on new data, the report shows that over 90 percent of the world is exposed to poor air quality, degraded land, or water stress. Loss of forests cuts rainfall, dries soils, and worsens droughts, costing billions of dollars. The nitrogen paradox emerges—fertilizers boost yields but overuse in some regions harms crops and ecosystems. Meanwhile, air and water pollution silently damage health, productivity, and cognition, sapping human potential. The report warns that these hidden costs are too large to ignore. Yet the message is not one of constraint but of possibility. Nature, when wisely stewarded, can drive growth, create jobs, and build resilience. The report shows that more efficient resource use—like better nitrogen management and forest restoration—yields benefits that far exceed the costs. It also urges a shift to cleaner sectors and producing “better things,” noting that these provide new sources of growth, creating more jobs per dollar invested. The findings are clear: Investing in nature is not only good for the planet, it is smart development.