Publication: Labor Market Transitions and Social Security in Colombia
Loading...
Date
2011-05-01
ISSN
Published
2011-05-01
Author(s)
Abstract
This paper quantifies the magnitude of transitions across occupational categories in Colombia, a country with high unemployment and informality but quickly increasing its social security coverage for health. The analysis makes use of a panel of households between 2008 and 2009, representative of the main metropolitan areas in the country. Results confirm previous evidence found in Colombia and elsewhere in the region that transitions between occupations are large and asymmetric: they are disproportionally more likely to happen from formal to informal occupations than vice versa. The paper finds for the first time that such transitions are also different for salaried workers compared with the self-employed, as well as by poverty status of the worker. Salaried workers are more likely to transition first into other salaried jobs, while self-employed are more likely to transition into unemployment or out of the labor force. There are marked differences in the profiles of transitioning and non-transitioning workers, both in terms of socioeconomic characteristics and social security coverage. Causal analysis shows that affiliation to social security on health deters occupational transitions, while pension insurance does not. Hence, high-volume transitions may not be crisis-specific phenomena, but rather associated with contributive and non-contributive social security mechanisms that incentivize informality, and workers' preferences for informal jobs. The debate on labor market and social security reforms needs to take these features of transitions into account.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Cuesta, Jose; Bohorquez, Camilo. 2011. Labor Market Transitions and Social Security in Colombia. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5650. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3413 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Ripple Effects(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-26)The three major players in the global economy, the United States, the European Union, and China, have been designing climate mitigation policies that will help reduce their carbon emissions but will also likely reshape developing countries’ trade, prices, and access to technology. This paper examines developing countries’ exposure to such changes. Overall, the policies are expected to curtail demand for fossil fuels, energy-intensive manufacturing, and agricultural exports linked to environmental degradation. They are also expected to open export opportunities in critical minerals, electric vehicles and their components, and renewable energy technologies and components. The exposure of affected export sectors and the overall economy to these changes will vary across countries based on the orientation of their export sectors to the markets in the European Union, the United States, and Chinese as well as the weight of affected exports in their economies. The climate policies will also likely reduce oil prices and raise critical mineral prices, help reduce the cost of green technologies, and increase green foreign investment. The paper draws recommendations for developing countries, the European Union, the United States, and China, as well as the international community, on how best to help developing countries lessen the potential negative competitiveness effects of these climate policies and make the most of the opportunities for a faster green transition and economic development.Publication Green Is Less Greedy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-26)Although green public procurement has been established as a desirable policy goal across the globe, especially in the European Union, its scope and impacts remain severely understudied. This paper provides insights into the prevalence and structure of green public procurement in Bulgaria, which is a sustainability laggard within the European Union and hence a least likely champion of green public procurement. The paper also estimates the impacts of green procurement on traditional procurement and economic outcomes: competition, corruption risks, and overall productivity. Using novel data and more comprehensive methods than previous studies, the analysis finds that green public procurement amounted to about 10 to 20 percent of total public procurement spending in Bulgaria in 2011–19. Most descriptors and requirements of green public procurement are found in titles, technical requirements, and product descriptions. Green criteria in award criteria texts, which are mainly used for flagging green public procurement in the literature, have been marginal in comparison. Green public procurement is estimated to improve competition for government contracts among firms, for example by increasing the prevalence of market entrants by 3 to 7 percentage points. Green public procurement contracts are also less prone to corruption risks. For example, they are 0.6 to 1.5 percentage points less likely to receive a single bidder. Finally, green public procurement enhances the efficiency of resource allocation in the economy by helping to channel public resources to more productive firms, for example to those that have 14 percent higher labor productivity. This effect is at least in part explained by the positive interaction between green public procurement and the lower risk of corruption. The findings strengthen the case for pursuing green public procurement goals as they offer synergies with traditional public procurement goals.Publication Firm Linkages and Domestic Value Added in Exports(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-26)Since 2000, China has been upgrading its infrastructure, exemplified by the expansion of the high-speed railways (HSR), while simultaneously moving up the global value chains, evidenced by the rising domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) in exports. To analyze the impacts of the HSR on China’s DVAR, this paper develops a new methodology to estimate firm-level DVAR using only customs transaction data, without relying on the industry input-output tables or matching firm-level industrial census data. This paper also proposes a novel way to capture firm-level input-output linkages by matching the custom product codes of importers and exporters. The results confirm that the HSR increases the DVAR through firm linkages by connecting downstream exporters with upstream domestic suppliers. A two-sector model shows that, by improving the probability of exporters connecting with low-communication cost domestic suppliers, the HSR decreases domestic material prices and increases the variety of accessible domestic materials, hence pushing up DVAR.Publication From Fiscal Cyclicality to Fiscal Stress(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-26)Macroeconomic textbooks warn that procyclical public spending can amplify economic volatility and cause fiscal stress. However, the latter risks materialize only when governments fail to reduce spending during downturns as much as they increase it during booms. This study investigates asymmetries in the cyclicality of public consumption and finds that emerging markets exhibit “downward rigidity”: they boost spending during upswings but do not effectively cut back during downturns. In contrast, advanced economies maintain steady levels of public consumption regardless of economic conditions, making them effectively acyclical. Downward rigidity in public consumption not only paves the way for fiscal stress when the economy slows, but also leads to sustained growth in the size of the state.Publication The Potential Cascading Impacts of Climate Change in Cambodia(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-26)This paper develops a “plausible worst-case” scenario for Cambodia to illustrate how a severe, 1-in-10-year flood could trigger cascading impacts, including widespread disease outbreaks and financial instability. The analysis shifts from forecasting to risk management, focusing on the economic consequences at each stage of this disaster chain. As climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, Cambodia’s vulnerabilities are likely to intensify, with severe floods leading to disruptions in health care, declines in labor productivity, and risks to financial stability. Although Cambodia’s current financial position provides some resilience, the risk of financial contagion remains, especially due to the growing sovereign-bank nexus. The paper highlights the importance of integrating climate risks into Cambodia’s broader risk management strategies and suggests preemptive interventions, such as improving flood forecasting, health care infrastructure, and exploring disaster risk finance instruments. These measures could help mitigate the cascading impacts of climate-induced disasters and build long-term resilience. The paper concludes that a shift from reactive crisis management to proactive preparedness and adaptation will be crucial for Cambodia’s ability to manage future climate risks and ensure economic and social stability.