Publication: Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Mounting Burdens on a Crisis-Ridden Country
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2024-12-10
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2024-12-10
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The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The Monitor places these developments, policies, and findings in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Lebanon.
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“World Bank. 2024. Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Mounting Burdens on a Crisis-Ridden Country. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42525 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-12-21)Lebanon is hit by yet another crisis: the spillover effects of the conflict in the Middle East. While the country remains mired in political and institutional vacuum, and a crippling socioeconomic crisis for over four years, it has now been hit by another large shock: fear that the current conflict centered in Gaza could escalate further into Lebanon. By 2022 and early 2023, the economy was able to find a temporary bottom following years of sharp contraction, thanks to tourism and sizeable remittances. The temporary bottoming out helped the exchange rate to also stabilize temporarily. With the onset of the current conflict, Lebanon’s economy is projected to be back in recession in 2023. This special focus assesses the impact of the current conflict and its spillovers on Lebanon’s economy. Assuming that the current situation of containment of military confrontation to the southern borders persists, the economy is estimated to contract in 2023, primarily due to the shock to tourism spending.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-04-20)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro, Headline inflation plummeted from 2.7 percent in 2013 to 1.9 percent in 2014 and is expected to remain tempered over the medium term. Lebanon s economy continues to be exposed to external shocks. The border with Syria is increasingly menacing as coordinated attacks by ISIS and Al Nusra are being launched more frequently from their bases in Syria. Inefficiencies in power generation impose sizable macroeconomic costs on Lebanon. The Lebanese electricity sector has been underperforming for decades with considerable socio-economic costs. The macroeconomic impact has been massive.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Lebanon.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-04)Lebanon faces serious challenges from a volatile security environment and spillovers from the ongoing Syrian conflict which pose serious risks to an already fragile internal political situation. Security incidents have become increasingly more common and the volatile security environment is weakening consumer and investor sentiments and adversely affecting tourism, a central contributor to economic growth and employment in Lebanon. The influx of Syrian refugees to Lebanon persists, with officially registered refugees reaching close to 1 million (i.e., 21.6 percent of Lebanon’s pre-conflict population), which poses significant fiscal, health and educational challenges.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2013(Washington, DC, 2013-04)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central government s primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. While Lebanon is to be commended for its openness to Syrian refugees, the conflict is severely and negatively impacting the Lebanese economy. The largest impact arises through the insecurity and uncertainty spillovers and touches at the heart of Lebanon s societal fabric.
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