Publication:
Learning from Power Sector Reform Experiences: The Case of Kenya

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.41 MB)
845 downloads
Date
2019-04
ISSN
Published
2019-04
Editor(s)
Abstract
Two successive waves of reform have fundamentally altered the structure and organization of Kenya's vibrant power sector, which boasts a tradition of strong technical and commercial performance. In the first wave -- beginning in 1996 and largely donor-driven -- policy and regulatory functions were separated from commercial activities; generation was unbundled from transmission and distribution; cost-reflective tariffs were introduced; and generation was liberalized. In the second wave -- beginning in 2002 and led by domestic reform champions -- the thrust of first-wave reforms was continued, with the strengthening of independent regulation, partial privatization of the generation company (KenGen), and establishment of complementary entities. Although the government retains majority ownership of the largest power utilities in the country (Kenya Power, ~51 percent; KenGen, ~70 percent), Kenya has been able to position itself as one of the foremost destinations in the region for private energy investment. The reforms have improved the operational efficiency of the sector, increased cost recovery, and captured a significant amount of private sector investment. At the same time, the state has remained an important investor, playing a pivotal role in expanding generation capacity, scaling up electrification at an exceptionally rapid pace, and leading diversification toward geothermal energy. Political influence in sector decisions remains significant, in planning and tariff reviews.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Eberhard, Anton; Godinho, Catrina. 2019. Learning from Power Sector Reform Experiences: The Case of Kenya. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8819. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31561 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Future of Poverty
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15) Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna; Nguyen, Minh C.; Corral, Paul
    Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
  • Publication
    Exports, Labor Markets, and the Environment
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-14) Góes, Carlos; Conceição, Otavio; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys
    What is the environmental impact of exports? Focusing on 2000–20, this paper combines customs, administrative, and census microdata to estimate employment elasticities with respect to exports. The findings show that municipalities that faced increased exports experienced faster growth in formal employment. The elasticities were 0.25 on impact, peaked at 0.4, and remained positive and significant even 10 years after the shock, pointing to a long and protracted labor market adjustment. In the long run, informal employment responds negatively to export shocks. Using a granular taxonomy for economic activities based on their environmental impact, the paper documents that environmentally risky activities have a larger share of employment than environmentally sustainable ones, and that the relationship between these activities and exports is nuanced. Over the short run, environmentally risky employment responds more strongly to exports relative to environmentally sustainable employment. However, over the long run, this pattern reverses, as the impact of exports on environmentally sustainable employment is more persistent.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    The Asymmetric Bank Distress Amplifier of Recessions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-11) Kim, Dohan
    One defining feature of financial crises, evident in U.S. and international data, is asymmetric bank distress—concentrated losses on a subset of banks. This paper proposes a model in which shocks to borrowers’ productivity dispersion lead to asymmetric bank losses. The framework exhibits a “bank distress amplifier,” exacerbating economic downturns by causing costly bank failures and raising uncertainty about the solvency of banks, thereby pushing banks to deleverage. Quantitative analysis shows that the bank distress amplifier doubles investment decline and increases the spread by 2.5 times during the Great Recession compared to a standard financial accelerator model. The mechanism helps explain how a seemingly small shock can sometimes trigger a large crisis.
  • Publication
    Impact of Heat Waves on Learning Outcomes and the Role of Conditional Cash Transfers
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-14) Miranda, Juan José; Contreras, Cesar
    This paper evaluates the impact of higher temperatures on learning outcomes in Peru. The results suggest that 1 degree above 20°C is equivalent to 7 and 6 percent of a standard deviation of what a student learns in a year for math and reading tests, respectively. These results hold true when the main specification is changed, splitting the sample, collapsing the data at school level, and using other climate specifications. The paper aims to improve understanding of how to deal with the impacts of climate change on learning outcomes in developing countries. The evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer programs can mitigate the negative effects of higher temperatures on students’ learning outcomes in math and reading.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Learning from Power Sector Reform Experiences
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04) Eberhard, Anton; Godinho, Catrina
    Uganda's power sector structure is among the most sophisticated in Sub-Saharan Africa, and Uganda is one of only a handful of countries in the region where tariffs are close to being cost reflective. While reforms were swift and comprehensive, following the 1999 Electricity Act, significant difficulties were encountered along the way that prevented the benefits of reform from materializing until much later. The failed first attempt with the Bujagali Hydropower independent power producer left the country heavily exposed to the 2005/06 and 2010/12 droughts, which in turn created difficulties for the new private distribution utility, Umeme, and led to a relaxation of the regulatory performance targets for the concession. This situation led to a buildup of frustration with the new operator and the launch of two public enquiries, which recommended termination of the concession. In 2012, with the easing of drought conditions and the completion of the Bujagali Hydropower Project following a second independent power producer arrangement, there was improvement in the availability of power. This made it possible to set more demanding performance targets for the concessionaire, Umeme, which fed through into substantial improvements in operational efficiency and accelerating service coverage. Although the reform model was eventually able to deliver results, the associated cost was comparatively high. Furthermore, the extension of the private concession model to financially unviable rural areas did not prove to be successful. Access rates began to pick up only following the adoption of a revised approach in 2012, built around government-led and donor-funded expansion of rural networks.
  • Publication
    Underpowered : The State of the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-05) Briceño-Garmendia, Cecilia; Eberhard, Anton; Ouedraogo, Fatimata; Foster, Vivien; Shkaratan, Maria; Camos, Daniel
    Sub-Saharan Africa is in the midst of a power crisis marked by insufficient generating capacity, unreliable supplies, high prices, and low rates of popular access to the electricity grid. The region's capacity for generating power is lower than that of any other world region, and growth in that capacity has stagnated. The average price of power in Sub-Saharan Africa is double that of other developing regions, but supply is unreliable. Because new household connections in many countries are not keeping up with population growth, the electrification rate, already low, is actually declining. The manifestations of the current crisis are symptoms of deeper problems that are explored in this study of power sector institutions in 24 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, which draws extensively on a new body of research undertaken as part of the multi-donor Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD). There are nearly 60 medium- to longer-term power sector projects involving the private sector in the region excluding leases for emergency power generation. Almost half of these are independent power producers (IPPs). Involving more than $2 billion of private sector investment, these IPPs have added early 3,000 MW of new capacity. A few IPP investments have been particularly well structured and contribute reliable power to the national grid.
  • Publication
    Learning from Power Sector Reform Experiences
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-03) Lee, Alan David; Gerner, Franz
    Vietnam's power sector has developed rapidly since the 1990s to become a top performer among developing countries. This success has occurred mostly under a state-owned utility, Electricity Vietnam. Select market-oriented reforms to date have also had some positive impact. By the late 1990s, the Government realized the need to gradually introduce competition to ensure long-term sustainability without jeopardizing security of supply for the fast-growing economy. Vietnam's 2004 Electricity Law has provided the framework to develop a competitive power market, unbundle Electricity Vietnam, set prices that better reflect costs, promote private investment, and establish a regulatory authority. Today, state-owned entities continue to dominate the sector. Whereas the power market is partially competitive, improved operational efficiency and financial performance of generators in this market has contributed to keeping generation costs relatively low. Plans are broadly on track for further extensive reforms, including a clean energy transition. Lessons include that state-centric institutions can develop the power sector with top-level government commitment, highly-qualified staff, and consensus among sector institutions. Gradual reforms offer an opportunity to learn by doing; yet, the sequence of reforms matters. Introducing market mechanisms ahead of other elements may limit the market effectiveness and even make subsequent reform steps more difficult.
  • Publication
    From Crisis to Stability in the Armenian Power Sector : Lessons Learned from Armenia's Energy Reform Experience
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006) Sargsyan, Gevorg; Balabanyan, Ani; Hankinson, Denzel
    In the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse, Armenia, like other former Soviet republics, began to struggle with the implications of its newfound independence. In the electricity sector, this meant learning how to manage and sustain a fragment of a system that had never been designed to function as a stand-alone grid. Armenia's electricity system-and, indeed, its entire energy supply system-had been designed to operate as part of a much larger, integrated Trans-Caucasus system. Plants were built to run on fuel imported from thousands of miles away, from neighbors who, with the Soviet Union gone, could offer little certainty that such supply would continue under terms that Armenia could afford. The problems with this system began to show in 1992. The start of the war over Nagorno Karabakh, and the resulting imposition by Azerbaijan and Turkey of an economic blockade, cut off Armenia's only source of gas and oil for its thermal plants. Four years prior to that, a massive earthquake had forced a shut down of the Medzamor nuclear power plant, a source of roughly one-third of Armenia's generating capacity. Supply from a new gas pipeline, built in 1993 through neighboring Georgia, was regularly interrupted by acts of sabotage. Armenia was left to rely almost entirely on its hydropower resources, at great expense to Lake Sevan, one of the country's most precious natural resources.
  • Publication
    Africa's Power Infrastructure : Investment, Integration, Efficiency
    (World Bank, 2011) Rosnes, Orvika; Eberhard, Anton; Shkaratan, Maria; Vennemo, Haakon; Foster, Vivien; Briceño-Garmendia, Cecilia
    This study is a product of the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD), a project designed to expand the world's knowledge of physical infrastructure in Africa. The AICD provides a baseline against which future improvements in infrastructure services can be measured, making it possible to monitor the results achieved from donor support. It also offers a more solid empirical foundation for prioritizing investments and designing policy reforms in the infrastructure sectors in Africa. The book draws upon a number of background papers that were prepared by World Bank staff and consultants, under the auspices of the AICD. The main findings were synthesized in a flagship report titled Africa's infrastructure: A time for transformation, published in November 2009. Meant for policy makers, that report necessarily focused on the high-level conclusions. It attracted widespread media coverage feeding directly into discussions at the 2009 African union commission heads of state summit on infrastructure.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Impact Evaluation in Practice, Second Edition
    (Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank, 2016-09-13) Gertler, Paul J.; Martinez, Sebastian; Premand, Patrick; Rawlings, Laura B.; Vermeersch, Christel M. J.
    The second edition of the Impact Evaluation in Practice handbook is a comprehensive and accessible introduction to impact evaluation for policy makers and development practitioners. First published in 2011, it has been used widely across the development and academic communities. The book incorporates real-world examples to present practical guidelines for designing and implementing impact evaluations. Readers will gain an understanding of impact evaluations and the best ways to use them to design evidence-based policies and programs. The updated version covers the newest techniques for evaluating programs and includes state-of-the-art implementation advice, as well as an expanded set of examples and case studies that draw on recent development challenges. It also includes new material on research ethics and partnerships to conduct impact evaluation. The handbook is divided into four sections: Part One discusses what to evaluate and why; Part Two presents the main impact evaluation methods; Part Three addresses how to manage impact evaluations; Part Four reviews impact evaluation sampling and data collection. Case studies illustrate different applications of impact evaluations. The book links to complementary instructional material available online, including an applied case as well as questions and answers. The updated second edition will be a valuable resource for the international development community, universities, and policy makers looking to build better evidence around what works in development.
  • Publication
    Boom, Bust and Up Again? Evolution, Drivers and Impact of Commodity Prices: Implications for Indonesia
    (World Bank, Jakarta, 2010-12) World Bank
    Indonesia is one of the largest commodity exporters in the world, and given its mineral potential and expected commodity price trends, it could and should expand its leading position. Commodities accounted for one fourth of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and more than one fifth of total government revenue in 2007. The potential for further commodity growth is considerable. Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world (export earnings totaled almost US$9 billion in 2007 and employment 3.8 million full-time jobs) and the sector has good growth prospects. It is also one of the countries with the largest mining potential in view of its second-largest copper reserves and third-largest coal and nickel reserves in the world. This report consists of seven chapters. The first six chapters present an examination and an analysis of the factors driving increased commodity prices, price forecasts, economic impact of commodity price increases, effective price stabilization policies, and insights from Indonesia's past growth experience. The final chapter draws on the findings of the previous chapters and suggests a development strategy for Indonesia in the context of high commodity prices. This section summarizes the contents of the chapters and their main findings.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2009
    (World Bank, 2009) World Bank
    Places do well when they promote transformations along the dimensions of economic geography: higher densities as cities grow; shorter distances as workers and businesses migrate closer to density; and fewer divisions as nations lower their economic borders and enter world markets to take advantage of scale and trade in specialized products. World Development Report 2009 concludes that the transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are essential for development and should be encouraged. The conclusion is controversial. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. A billion people live in lagging areas of developing nations, remote from globalizations many benefits. And poverty and high mortality persist among the world’s bottom billion, trapped without access to global markets, even as others grow more prosperous and live ever longer lives. Concern for these three intersecting billions often comes with the prescription that growth must be spatially balanced. This report has a different message: economic growth will be unbalanced. To try to spread it out is to discourage it to fight prosperity, not poverty. But development can still be inclusive, even for people who start their lives distant from dense economic activity. For growth to be rapid and shared, governments must promote economic integration, the pivotal concept, as this report argues, in the policy debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration. Instead, all three debates overemphasize place-based interventions. Reshaping Economic Geography reframes these debates to include all the instruments of integration spatially blind institutions, spatially connective infrastructure, and spatially targeted interventions. By calibrating the blend of these instruments, today’s developers can reshape their economic geography. If they do this well, their growth will still be unbalanced, but their development will be inclusive.
  • Publication
    Poverty Reduction in Indonesia : Constructing a New Strategy
    (Washington, DC, 2001-10-29) World Bank
    The objective of the report is to point at the need for a new poverty strategy, and the areas of action it should cover, where each area should be specifically discussed, addressing the lives of Indonesia's poor, and the tradeoffs policymakers will need to consider, based on the belief that this poverty strategy should emerge from a broad dialogue among stakeholders. First, in broadening poverty, the report looks at the facts of the late 1990s crisis, which revealed the precariousness of Indonesia's gains in reducing expenditure-based poverty. Thus to extend those gains, the poverty strategy needs to be defined, and then redeveloped by acknowledging the multidimensional reality of poverty, and, it is this notion which will lead to making the strategic choices. Second, within the country's political transition to a democratic, decentralized mode of governance, a poverty strategy needs to be consistent with an empowered populace, and democratic policymaking mechanisms. In creating a policy environment for raising the incomes of the poor, the report identifies the resumption of rapid sustainable growth, with rising real wages, employment opportunities, and, limited inflation, including the economic empowerment of the poor, enhanced by poverty-focused public expenditures. Inevitably, the provision of core public services is an area which should address the people's will in local governance policies, focusing on education and health, while providing appropriate infrastructure, and developing safety nets.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2004
    (World Bank, 2003) World Bank
    Too often, services fail poor people in access, in quality, and in affordability. But the fact that there are striking examples where basic services such as water, sanitation, health, education, and electricity do work for poor people means that governments and citizens can do a better job of providing them. Learning from success and understanding the sources of failure, this year’s World Development Report, argues that services can be improved by putting poor people at the center of service provision. How? By enabling the poor to monitor and discipline service providers, by amplifying their voice in policymaking, and by strengthening the incentives for providers to serve the poor. Freedom from illness and freedom from illiteracy are two of the most important ways poor people can escape from poverty. To achieve these goals, economic growth and financial resources are of course necessary, but they are not enough. The World Development Report provides a practical framework for making the services that contribute to human development work for poor people. With this framework, citizens, governments, and donors can take action and accelerate progress toward the common objective of poverty reduction, as specified in the Millennium Development Goals.