Publication: Vietnam Macro Monitoring, October 2022
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Date
2022-10
ISSN
Published
2022-10
Author(s)
World Bank
Abstract
This brief focuses on the economic
development in Vietnam as of October 2022. Vietnam’s economy
registered a strong growth of 13.7 percent (y/y) in Q3-2022
and 8.9 percent (y/y), mostly reflecting a low base effect.
Industrial production and retail sales posted another month
of high growth rates (13.0 percent (y/y) and 36.1 percent
(y/y)), which could be attributed both to strong economic
activities and to the low-base effects. Both exports and
imports growth moderated in September 2022 due to weakening
demand from major export markets. FDI commitment fell in
September affected by the heighted uncertainty about the
global economic prospects while FDI disbursement continued
to improve. While the economic recovery has remained strong,
heightened uncertainties related to the slowing global
economy, rising domestic inflation, and tightening global
financial conditions warrant increased vigilance and policy
agility. Given the economy has not fully recovered and
growth in main export markets is expected to slow, continued
active fiscal policy to support the economy should be
closely aligned with economic outcomes and coordinated with
monetary policy. At the same time, as CPI and Core CPI are
reaching 4 percent, the policy rate set by the authorities,
monetary authorities should be ready to considerfurther
tightening of monetary policy to ensure inflation remains
anchored. Given the end of forbearance and tightening
financial conditions, the financial sector faces heightened
risks and prompt SBV guidance would help stem
materialization of such risks at the sector level,
potentially affecting the real economy. The recent turmoil
around the Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) case highlights the
need for increased transparency through timely publication
of detailed information about the banking sector
performance, an enhanced corporate governance, a
strengthened risk-based supervision, including supervision
of business groups and related party lending and early
intervention, and an enhanced bank resolution framework.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2022. Vietnam Macro Monitoring, October 2022. © Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38196 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”