Publication:
The Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Capital Requirements in Emerging Economies : Past Evidence to Assess the Future

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.95 MB)
470 downloads
English Text (90.06 KB)
65 downloads
Date
2001-01
ISSN
Published
2001-01
Editor(s)
Abstract
The authors test for emerging economies, the hypothesis - previously verified only for the Group of 10 (G-10) countries - that enforcing bank capital asset requirements, exerts a negative effect on the supply of credit. Their econometric analysis of data on individual banks, suggests three main results: 1) Enforcement of capital asset requirements - according to the 1998 Basel standard - significantly curtailed credit supply, particularly at less-well-capitalized banks. 2) This negative effect is not limited to countries enforcing capital asset requirements in the aftermath of a currency, or financial crises. 3) The adverse impact of capital requirements on the credit supply was somewhat smaller for foreign-owned banks, suggesting that opening up to foreign investors, may be an effective way to partly shield the domestic banking sector from negative shocks. Overall, by inducing banks to reduce their lending, enforcement of capital asset requirements may well have induced an aggregate slowdown, or contraction in credit in the emerging economies examined. The results have relevance for the ongoing debate on the impact of the revision of bank capital asset requirements, contemplated by the 1999 Basel proposal. They suggest that in several emerging economies, the phasing in of higher capital requirements needs to be carefully managed, to avoid a credit supply retrenchment, which should not be underestimated.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Chiuri, Maria Concetta; Ferri, Giovanni; Majnoni, Giovanni. 2001. The Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Capital Requirements in Emerging Economies : Past Evidence to Assess the Future. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2605. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19716 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Future of Poverty
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15) Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna; Nguyen, Minh C.; Corral, Paul
    Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
  • Publication
    Central Bank Independence and Sovereign Borrowing
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-25) Athanasopoulos, Angelos; Fraccaroli, Nicolò; Kern, Andreas; Romelli, Davide
    This paper studies the impact of central bank independence on sovereign borrowing, using an index that captures institutional constraints on central bank lending to the government across 155 countries from 1972 to 2023. The findings show that tighter lending to the executive significantly reduces sovereign interest rates and raises the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio in developing countries. These effects reflect the executive’s improved ability to borrow at lower costs under greater central bank independence. The results are robust to multiple tests, but there are no significant effects in advanced economies. From a policy perspective, the results highlight the key role of independent central banks as catalysts for reducing governments’ borrowing costs and enhancing the government’s borrowing capacity.
  • Publication
    Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03) Vagliasindi, Maria; Gorgulu, Nisan
    This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.
  • Publication
    Crowding Out and Banking Crises
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-22) Hernando-Kaminsky, Pablo
    This paper studies the effect of government issuance on firm issuance during banking crises using transaction-level bond and loan data from 66 countries between 1991 and 2017. Governments rarely issue loans, preferring to issue in bond markets. In contrast, firms receive most of their financing from banks. During banking crises, as the supply of domestic loans decreases, firms switch to issuing bonds in domestic markets. The paper uses a novel instrument based on maturing debt to overcome the potential endogeneity of government issuance. The findings show that firms must compete with the government for funds in the domestic bond market and are crowded out from this market as a result. This happens not only in developing countries, but in advanced countries as well. The paper also shows that firms with the ability to tap international debt markets switch to these markets when crowding out occurs in domestic bond markets. Lastly, the paper shows that more developed domestic bond markets mitigate, but do not eliminate, the degree to which crowding out occurs.
  • Publication
    Designing and Analyzing Powerful Experiments
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-22) McKenzie, David
    This paper offers practical advice on how to improve statistical power in randomized experiments through choices and actions researchers can take at the design, implementation, and analysis stages. At the design stage, the choice of estimand, choice of treatment, and decisions that affect the residual variance and intra-cluster correlation can all affect power for a given sample size. At the implementation stage, researchers can boost power through increasing compliance with treatment, reducing attrition, and improving outcome measurement. At the analysis stage, power can be increased through using different test statistics or estimands, through the choice of control variables, and through incorporating informative priors in a Bayesian analysis. A key message is that it does not make sense to talk of “the” power of an experiment. A study can be well-powered for one outcome or estimand, but not others, and a fixed sample size can yield very different levels of power depending on researcher decisions.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    How the Proposed Basel Guidelines on Rating-Agency Assessments Would Affect Developing Countries
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-06) Ferri, Giovanni; Liu, Li-Gang; Majnoni, Giovanni
    Using historical data on sovereign and individual borrowers, the authors assess the potential impact on non-high-income countries of linking capital asset requirements for banks to private sector ratings, as the Basel committee has proposed. They show that linking bank's capital asset requirements to external ratings would have undesirable effects for developing countries. First, ratings of banks and corporations in developing countries are less common, so capital asset requirements would be practically insensitive to improvements in the quality of assets-widening the gap between banks of equal financial strength in higher- and lower-income countries. Second, bank and corporate ratings in developing countries (unlike their counterparts in high-income countries) are strongly linked to the sovereign ratings for the country-and appear to be strongly related (asymmetrically) to changes in the sovereign ratings. A sovereign downgrading would bring greater changes in capital allocations than an upgrading, and would call for larger capital requirements at the very time access to capital markets was more difficult. Under the new guidelines, capital requirements in developing countries would thus be exposed to the cyclical swings associated with the revision of sovereign ratings in recent crises. Ultimately, linking banks' capital asset requirements to private sector ratings would reduce the credit available to non-high-income countries and make it more costly, limiting economic activity. Bank capital needs in developing countries would be more volatile than those in high-income countries. These findings suggest that the Basel Committee should assess the role it proposes assigning to external ratings, to minimize the detrimental impact of the regulatory use of such ratings on developing countries.
  • Publication
    Financial Intermediary Distress in the Republic of Korea : Small Is Beautiful?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-05) Bongini, Paola; Ferri, Giovanni; Kang, Tae Soo
    Taking the Korean experience as a laboratory experiment in systemic financial crises, the authors analyze distress in individual institutions among two groups of financial intermediaries. They pool together a group of large financial intermediaries (commercial banks, merchant banking corporations) and another group of tiny mutual savings and finance companies. Both the too-big-to-fail doctrine and the credit channel approach suggest that the probability of distress would be greater for small intermediaries. But the authors find that proportionately fewer small intermediaries were distressed than were large intermediaries. They offer two hypothetical explanations for this unexpected result: 1) Exchange rate exposure - a major shock to Korean intermediaries - was presumably negligible for the small financial intermediaries. 2) Small financial intermediaries allocated loans better, because of the "peer monitoring" natural to their mutual nature and deep local roots. Available data did not allow the authors to test the first hypothesis, but they did find support for the second one. Estimating a logit model, they find that the probability of distress was systematically smaller for the mutual savings and finance companies that stayed closer to their origins (for example, collecting many deposits as "credit mutual installment savings") and for those with a longer history of doing business in their local community.
  • Publication
    Bank Regulation and Supervision around the World : A Crisis Update
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-12) Čihák, Martin; Demirgüç-Kunt, Aslı; Pería, María Soledad Martinez; Mohseni-Cheraghlou, Amin
    This paper presents the latest update of the World Bank Bank Regulation and Supervision Survey, and explores two questions. First, were there significant differences in regulation and supervision between crisis and non-crisis countries? Second, what aspects of regulation and supervision changed significantly during the crisis period? The paper finds significant differences between crisis and non-crisis countries in several aspects of regulation and supervision. In particular, crisis countries (a) had less stringent definitions of capital and lower actual capital ratios, (b) faced fewer restrictions on non-bank activities, (c) were less strict in the regulatory treatment of bad loans and loan losses, and (d) had weaker incentives for the private sector to monitor banks' risks. Survey results also suggest that the overall regulatory response to the crisis has been slow, and there is room to improve regulation and supervision, as well as private incentives to monitor risk-taking. Specifically, comparing regulatory and supervisory practices before and after the global crisis, the paper finds relatively few changes: capital ratios increased (primarily among non-crisis countries), deposit insurance schemes became more generous, and some reforms were introduced in the area of bank governance and bank resolution.
  • Publication
    Nepal Contingency Planning Project
    (Washington, DC, 2010-10-31) World Bank
    The Nepalese authorities have made important progress in strengthening the financial stability framework. This framework consists of provisions for liquidity support to banks, supervisory practices, and problem bank resolution mechanisms. Some liquidity facilities have been put in place, supervisory actions strengthened, and amendments to bank resolution laws have been passed that improved the ability of the Nepalese Government to manage the growing financial sector. Notwithstanding this progress, some additional refinements are warranted. The banking sector is growing rapidly, with new entrants increasing the risk profile of the system. At the same time, the economic conditions of the country are less beneficial than in the past. Accordingly, some strengthening of the existing framework is advisable. Areas for strengthening include: preconditions for effective crisis management; development of a crisis management framework; and preparation of a step-by-step plan for meeting the crisis. This report focuses on two aspects of contingency planning. First, a number of structural reforms are necessary to make the crisis management framework efficient. These preconditions for an effective crisis management framework may take time to implement but should be initiated immediately. If a crisis were to emerge before these reforms are completed, the crisis will be more difficult to contain and resolve. Second, an Action Plan for dealing with the unfolding crisis is proposed. While the specifics will depend on the causes of the crisis and the particular path the crisis takes, principles for addressing the crisis will be discussed.
  • Publication
    Macroprudential Policy Framework : A Practice Guide
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-04-29) Krishnamurti, Damodaran; Lee, Yejin Carol
    This practice guide is primarily intended as a reference and guidance for emerging market economies in their migration to a formal macroprudential policy framework. It relies largely on the existing wisdom, knowledge, and experience and was written with the intention of assisting policy makers (and the World Bank staff working with these authorities) in the implementation of macroprudential policy frameworks in jurisdictions with the following characteristics representative of a typical emerging market and developing economy: 1) a simple and bank-dominated financial system where other financial sector segments are much smaller, but growing; 2) banking supervision function is within the central bank; 3) financial sector regulation/supervision is not integrated; 4) uncertain availability of quality data. A macroprudential policy framework is not a silver bullet for safeguarding financial stability. It is also useful to highlight that a macroprudential policy framework cannot take the place of other public policy frameworks. While pursuing macroprudential policy to build a more resilient financial system, authorities should also take into consideration the significant financial development needs that may exist in their respective jurisdictions. This Practice Guide has been structured in a logical sequence that mirrors implementation. The second and third sections are laid out to clarify and provide some context to the concept of a macroprudential approach to supervision and discuss the institutional framework. The fourth and fifth sections deal with the operational aspects of macroprudential policy framework that are timely detection of systemic risks using early warning systems and addressing the buildup of systemic risks with macroprudential policy instruments.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Argentina Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 1987
    (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987) World Bank
    This report, consisting of two parts, is the tenth in the annual series assessing development issues. Part I reviews recent trends in the world economy and their implications for the future prospects of developing countries. It stresses that better economic performance is possible in both industrial and developing countries, provided the commitment to economic policy reforms is maintained and reinforced. In regard to the external debt issues, the report argues for strengthened cooperation among industrial countries in the sphere of macroeconomic policy to promote smooth adjustment to the imbalances caused by external payments (in developing countries). Part II reviews and evaluates the varied experience with government policies in support of industrialization. Emphasis is placed on policies which affect both the efficiency and sustainability of industrial transformation, especially in the sphere of foreign trade. The report finds that developing countries which followed policies that promoted the integration of their industrial sector into the international economy through trade have fared better than those which insulated themselves from international competition.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11) World Bank
    After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.