Publication: Conflict and Poverty
Loading...
Published
2020-10
ISSN
Date
2020-10-29
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between poverty and conflict in the macro and regional data, including a detailed case study of Uganda. The paper relies on a large and growing literature that provides evidence on the devastating impact that conflict has on health and expectations. Based on this evidence, it develops a statistical framework to track the cumulative long-term impact that armed conflict has on poverty, which the paper calls conflict debt. The data confirm that contemporaneous conflict leads to a conflict debt which is only recovered slowly. The empirical model is not only a good description of the cross-country aggregate poverty time-series data, but also regional cross-sectional data. A new aspect in the model is that armed conflict can prevent poverty reduction and, once it is over, allow for strong catch‐up effects as they exist in the data. But in the most conflict-ridden countries, repeated cycles of violence prevent poverty from recovering. According to the most conservative estimates, these countries and regions would have 5‐10 percentage points lower poverty rates without their conflict debt.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Mueller, Hannes; Techasunthornwat, Chanon. 2020. Conflict and Poverty. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9455. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34688 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22)As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.Publication Monitoring Global Aid Flows: A Novel Approach Using Large Language Models(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04)Effective monitoring of development aid is the foundation for assessing the alignment of flows with their intended development objectives. Existing reporting systems, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Creditor Reporting System, provide standardized classification of aid activities but have limitations when it comes to capturing new areas like climate change, digitalization, and other cross-cutting themes. This paper proposes a bottom-up, unsupervised machine learning framework that leverages textual descriptions of aid projects to generate highly granular activity clusters. Using the 2021 Creditor Reporting System data set of nearly 400,000 records, the model produces 841 clusters, which are then grouped into 80 subsectors. These clusters reveal 36 emerging aid areas not tracked in the current Creditor Reporting System taxonomy, allow unpacking of “multi-sectoral” and “sector not specified” classifications, and enable estimation of flows to new themes, including World Bank Global Challenge Programs, International Development Association–20 Special Themes, and Cross-Cutting Issues. Validation against both Creditor Reporting System benchmarks and International Development Association commitment data demonstrates robustness. This approach illustrates how machine learning and the new advances in large language models can enhance the monitoring of global aid flows and inform future improvements in aid classification and reporting. It offers a useful tool that can support more responsive and evidence-based decision-making, helping to better align resources with evolving development priorities.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication The State of Global Services Trade Policies: Evidence from Recent Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-28)The economic environment for services trade has changed dramatically over the past 15 years, driven by rapid technological progress that has expanded the possibilities for exchanging services. How has trade policy responded to these changes? How do policy stances in a wide range of service sectors compare across economies? With its unprecedented global coverage, the Services Trade Policy Database and the associated Services Trade Restrictions Index, developed jointly by the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, help address these questions. This paper makes three principal contributions. First, it offers an in-depth discussion of the current state of services trade policies and their differences across 134 economies and 34 services subsectors. Second, the paper reveals how recent (2016–22) changes in policy stances have seen progressive liberalization by lower-income economies but stabilization or even slight policy reversals in high-income economies. This dynamic differs fundamentally from the trend that unfolded after the Great Recession over 2008–16. Third, the paper shows the implications of policy changes over the past six years on services trade costs, and it showcases how the Services Trade Policy Database’s regulatory information can inform trade negotiations, regulatory analysis, and policy making. Alongside these contributions, the paper documents updates to the Services Trade Policy Database’s economy and sector coverage and explains the latest methodological improvements made to the World Bank–World Trade Organization Services Trade Restrictions Index.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Conflict, Displacement and Overlapping Vulnerabilities(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10)Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has been embroiled in decades-long conflict that has resulted in the forced displacement of millions of people and extremely high rates of gender-based violence. Much attention has been focused on conflict-related sexual violence; however, it is important to recognize that intimate partner violence is one of the most pervasive forms of gender-based violence in the world, including in conflict settings. This paper is among the first to use a large, randomized survey to analyze both sexual violence and intimate partner violence as outcomes. Displacement increases a woman’s risk of past-year intimate partner violence by 6 percent and experiencing war abuses increases the risk of lifetime intimate partner violence by 9 percent, after adjusting for other risk factors. Both exposure to war-related experiences and displacement independently increase the risk of past-year sexual violence by 6 percent, after adjusting for other risk factors. Forced displacement and traumatic war-related experiences are risk factors for intimate partner violence and sexual violence in this setting. Acknowledging these risks and creating programs that explicitly address the high risk of violence faced by displaced and war-affected women can more effectively break the cycles of violence that are often perpetuated in fragile settings.Publication Health Financing in Fragile, Conflict and Violence Situations(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)Levels and efficiency of health services financing in fragile, conflict and violence (FCV) countries are significantly low. FCV countries face more challenges in each of the health financing domains namely resource mobilization and pooling, resource allocation, purchasing, and service provision. This note discusses the issues and solutions around generating and pooling financial resources and maximizing the efficiency of existing money (purchasing).Publication Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity in Contexts Affected by Fragility, Conflict, and Violence(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-03)In recent years, the world has seen a sharp rise in violence based on sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) in countries affected by fragility, conflict and violence (FCV). Today, consensual same-sex sexual acts and other aspects of SOGI remain criminalized in many of the countries experiencing the most pressing humanitarian crises, and those with the largest numbers of refugees and internally displaced people. In light of this, this discussion paper analyzes some of the development and protection challenges that sexual and gender minorities cope with in FCV-affected environments. The paper devotes special attention to the intersections between SOGI-based exclusion and access to basic services; to the challenges experienced by sexual and gender minorities in conditions of forced displacement; and to sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) as a frequently used weapon against these vulnerable groups. This paper contributes to the evidence base related to the most vulnerable in FCV-affected environments, and knowledge on SOGI-based exclusion vis-à-vis the development-humanitarian-peace nexus.Publication Disrupted Service Delivery? The Impact of Conflict on Antenatal Care Quality in Kenya(Frontiers Media, 2021-02-28)African countries facing conflict have higher levels of maternal mortality. Understanding the gaps in the utilization of high-quality maternal health care is essential to improving maternal survival in these states. Few studies have estimated the impact of conflict on the quality of health care. In this study, we estimated the impact of conflict on the quality of health care in Kenya, a country with multiple overlapping conflicts and significant disparities in maternal survival. Our study demonstrates the importance of designing maternal health policy based on the context-specific evidence on the mechanisms through which conflict affects health care. In Kenya, deterioration of equipment and infrastructure does not appear to be the main mechanism through which conflict has affected ANC quality. Further research should focus on better understanding the determinants of the gaps in process quality in conflict-affected settings, including provider motivation, competence, and incentives.Publication Social Protection in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-04)This study examines the role of social protection programming, and programming design and implementation features, that are prominent in fragile and conflict-affected states. The main objective is to build on existing, available information from a sample of fragile and conflict-affected countries and develop operational guidance that addresses policy, design, and implementation issues and offers operational solutions for social protection programming and policy making in different fragile settings. The analysis showcases the universe of social protection objectives that are evident in these countries as well as the programming trends, types, coverage, and expenditure patterns. The paper also examines dimensions specific to fragile and conflict-affected settings in implementing social protection and labor programs, such as social cohesion, the role of community-driven development, and postwar benefits. Finally, the study highlights social protection and labor program delivery in seven different country contexts, and discusses the country-specific programming options chosen to achieve the objectives and overcome capacity and operational constraints.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System : A Handbook for Development Practitioners(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004)An effective state is essential to achieving socio-economic and sustainable development. With the advent of globalization, there are growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to the demands of internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness, and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are among the stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and real results have increased, there is an attendant need for enhanced results-based monitoring and evaluation of policies, programs, and projects. This handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system. These steps begin with a 'readiness assessment' and take the practitioner through the design, management, and importantly, the sustainability of such systems. The handbook describes each step in detail, the tasks needed to complete each one, and the tools available to help along the way.Publication Wealth Sharing for Conflict Prevention and Economic Growth : Botswana Case Study of Natural Resource Utilization for Peace and Development(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-12)There are countries in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and even a few such countries in Africa that are using non-renewable resources to drive development and have not experienced conflict. South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia are such typical cases in Africa. Instead, the presence of significant minerals in Botswana is associated with economic development and democracy as well as peace. This paper applies the "resource curse", thesis to the case of Botswana, a country that is rich in minerals, yet it has realized positive development thus avoiding conflict and 'the resource curse'. The focus of this study is to examine the experience of Botswana in using natural resources to promote equitable development and thereby avoid conflict which often results from selfish private or ethnic group interests that elsewhere have used natural resources to the exclusion of other groups in society. This study specifically looks at the conditions and factors that facilitated the absence of internal conflict in the extraction of natural resources in Botswana. The key questions answered are: what contextual conditions and factors facilitated the peaceful extraction of natural resources in Botswana?; and were these factors unique to Botswana or can they be replicated elsewhere?. The first chapter gives introduction. The second chapter deals with the socio-political setting of the chiefs' rule during the pre-colonial and colonial periods. The third chapter discusses Botswana's democracy and how it has evolved not only to democratize society but also to become a management culture of good governance for defining how the natural resources will be utilized for the country's development. Chapter four outlines the mineral resource base of Botswana and the policies and strategies used by government in ensuring that such resources were used for public good rather than the self-interest of either the leaders or mining houses. Chapter five focuses attention on cases of local conflicts relating to mineral and other natural resources around different parts of the country. Chapter six brings the issues together to explain Botswana's democratic and mineral dividends in attaining a high development success rate. Chapter seven presents conclusion.Publication Rural-Urban Migration in Developing Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)This paper reviews the recent literature on rural-urban migration in developing countries, focusing on three key questions: What motivates or forces people to migrate? What costs do migrants face? What are the impacts of migration on migrants and the economy? The literature paints a complex picture whereby rural-urban migration is driven by many factors and the returns to migration as well as the costs are very high. The evidence supports the notion that migration barriers hinder labor market adjustment and are likely to be welfare reducing. The review concludes by identifying gaps in current research and data needs.Publication Tanzania Jobs Diagnostic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018)Tanzania has just entered a phase of growing dependency rates that will put pressure on job creation so that the larger number of dependents do not fall into poverty. However, the new millions of jobs that will be needed in the next decade is only part of the challenge. It is important to create better jobs. An economy that produces plenty of good jobs is the most direct way to continue the trajectory toward lower poverty rates. Challenges to creating more and better jobs for the poor and vulnerable groups stem from both labor demand and supply issues. On the demand side, large firms in a few sectors dominate. Possibly because of that dominance, micro and small firms find it difficult to grow and provide new jobs. Firms’ relatively restricted market access may also be a crucial factor in explaining comparative low productivity and employment. Trade expansion and a well-connected economy would address issues of comparative low-productivity and employment. On the supply side, urban areas have high unemployment. In rural areas, underemployment is on the rise. The fall in unemployment rates may be largely explained by discouraged workers withdrawing from the labor force. Where there is willingness to work—like with women and young workers—disparities in the access to quality employment is an obstacle. Finally, the rise in educational attainment was insufficient to address labor market challenges likely due to the fall in the quality of education. The objective of the Jobs Diagnostic (JD) is to identify the main challenges to job creation and to improve the quality and inclusiveness of employment. The JD is a data-driven exercise that looks at macroeconomic and demographic factors, as well as labor supply and demand to pinpoint the main constraints for a jobs-rich growth path. The fact that JDs are data-driven allows for international comparisons based on standardized datasets.The JD covers three main areas: macro and demographic trends, labor supply, and labor demand. The first section looks at the relationships between employment growth, labor productivity, and economic growth to set the macro context to later examine labor supply and demand. The second section cover labor supply. It aims to identify trends in labor supply to understand the population’s needs for employment, the unemployment challenges, underemployment, and waged and informal employment. These trends include working-age population (WAP), labor force, and inactivity. Once identified, international comparisons are based on a global harmonized household database (International Income Distribution Dataset— ‘I2D2’). The labor supply section in JDs employs a set of harmonized variables that are comparable across countries and time. The third section covers labor demand. It aims to identify the links between sectoral productivity, size, age, and other characteristics to assess the constraints for employment growth, productivity, and wages. Firm-level datasets such as Enterprise Surveys, (which allow for some international benchmarking), or censuses of enterprises are used to do this. The demand for labor is derived from the production of goods and services by entrepreneurs to meet the demand for products in an economy. The analysis also highlights who gets the jobs created in the economy and what variables determine earnings and employment. A JD analyzes a country’s economic transformations in relation to other experiences. There are three important aspects of such transformation: Structural transformation (the movement of labor across sectors); Spatial transformation (or “urbanization”; the movement of labor across places); and Organizational transformation (or “formalization”; the movement from informality to formal work, and from self to waged employment). A JD also identifies the characteristics of individuals that can access jobs in the economy, and those who are left behind.Publication World Development Report 1984(New York: Oxford University Press, 1984)Long-term needs and sustained effort are underlying themes in this year's report. As with most of its predecessors, it is divided into two parts. The first looks at economic performance, past and prospective. The second part is this year devoted to population - the causes and consequences of rapid population growth, its link to development, why it has slowed down in some developing countries. The two parts mirror each other: economic policy and performance in the next decade will matter for population growth in the developing countries for several decades beyond. Population policy and change in the rest of this century will set the terms for the whole of development strategy in the next. In both cases, policy changes will not yield immediate benefits, but delay will reduce the room for maneuver that policy makers will have in years to come.