Publication: The Economics of Renewable Energy Expansion in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa
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Date
2011
ISSN
03014215
Published
2011
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Abstract
Accelerating development in Sub-Saharan Africa will require massive expansion of access to electricity--currently reaching only about one third of households. This paper explores how essential economic development might be reconciled with the need to keep carbon emissions in check. We develop a geographically explicit framework and use spatial modeling and cost estimates from recent engineering studies to determine where stand-alone renewable energy generation is a cost effective alternative to centralized grid supply. Our results suggest that decentralized renewable energy will likely play an important role in expanding rural energy access. However, it will be the lowest cost option for a minority of households in Africa, even when likely cost reductions over the next 20 years are considered. Decentralized renewables are competitive mostly in remote and rural areas, while grid connected supply dominates denser areas where the majority of households reside. These findings underscore the need to decarbonize the fuel mix for centralized power generation as it expands in Africa.
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Publication The Economics of Renewable Energy Expansion in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-01)Accelerating development in Sub-Saharan Africa will require massive expansion of access to electricity -- currently reaching only about one-third of households. This paper explores how essential economic development might be reconciled with the need to keep carbon emissions in check. The authors develop a geographically explicit framework and use spatial modeling and cost estimates from recent engineering studies to determine where stand-alone renewable energy generation is a cost effective alternative to centralized grid supply. The results suggest that decentralized renewable energy will likely play an important role in expanding rural energy access. But it will be the lowest cost option for a minority of households in Africa, even when likely cost reductions over the next 20 years are considered. Decentralized renewables are competitive mostly in remote and rural areas, while grid connected supply dominates denser areas where the majority of households reside. These findings underscore the need to de-carbonize the fuel mix for centralized power generation as it expands in Africa.Publication Road Network Upgrading and Overland Trade Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa(2010)Recent research suggests that poor economic integration and isolation from regional and international markets have contributed significantly to poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. Poor transport infrastructure and border restrictions are major deterrents to trade expansion which would stimulate economic growth and poverty reduction. Using spatial network analysis techniques and gravity trade model estimations, this paper quantifies the economics of upgrading a primary road network that connects the major urban areas in the region. The results indicate that continental network upgrading is worth serious consideration from an economic perspective. Our simulations suggest that overland trade among Sub-Saharan African countries might expand by about $250 billion over 15 years, with major direct and indirect benefits for the rural poor. Financing the programme would require about $20 billion for initial upgrading and $1 billion annually for maintenance.Publication Country Stakes in Climate Change Negotiations : Two Dimensions of Vulnerability(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-08)Using a comprehensive geo-referenced database of indicators relating to global change and energy, the paper assesses countries' likely attitudes with respect to international treaties that regulate carbon emissions. The authors distinguish between source and impact vulnerability and classify countries according to these dimensions. The findings show clear differences in the factors that determine likely negotiating positions. This analysis and the resulting detailed, country level information help to explain the incentives required to make the establishment of such agreements more likely.Publication Country Stakes in Climate Change Negotiations : Two Dimensions of Vulnerability(2009)Future global agreements on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to include developing countries and industrialized countries that are not part of the Kyoto Protocol. An assessment using a comprehensive geo-referenced database of indicators relating to global change and energy provides insight into countries' likely attitudes and positions with respect to international treaties regulating carbon emissions. A distinction is made between source vulnerabilities (access to fossil fuels and renewable energy sources, options for GHG sequestration, the potential size of employment and income shocks) and impact vulnerabilities (changes in agricultural productivity, weather events and sea-level rise). This differential vulnerability is used to identify clear differences that determine likely negotiating positions. This helps us to understand the incentives required to make the establishment of such agreements more likely. Countries with high impact vulnerability and low source vulnerability should be the most inclined to support greenhouse gas emissions limits. Conversely, countries with high source vulnerability and low impact vulnerability should be most resistant to such limits. Additionally, a successful transition to clean energy sources will require transition support for countries with high source vulnerability and adaptation support for countries with high impact vulnerability.Publication Road Network Upgrading and Overland Trade Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-12)Recent research suggests that isolation from regional and international markets has contributed significantly to poverty in many Sub-Saharan African countries. Numerous empirical studies identify poor transport infrastructure and border restrictions as significant deterrents to trade expansion. In response, the African Development Bank has proposed an integrated network of functional roads for the subcontinent. Drawing on new econometric results, the authors quantify the trade-expansion potential and costs of such a network. They use spatial network analysis techniques to identify a network of primary roads connecting all Sub-Saharan capitals and other cities with populations over 500,000. The authors estimate current overland trade flows in the network using econometrically-estimated gravity model parameters, road transport quality indicators, actual road distances, and estimates of economic scale for cities in the network. Then they simulate the effect of feasible continental upgrading by setting network transport quality at a level that is functional, but less highly developed than existing roads in countries like South Africa and Botswana. The authors assess the costs of upgrading with econometric evidence from a large World Bank database of road project costs in Africa. Using a standard approach to forecast error estimation, they derive a range of potential benefits and costs. Their baseline results indicate that continental network upgrading would expand overland trade by about $250 billion over 15 years, with major direct and indirect benefits for the rural poor. Financing the program would require about $20 billion for initial upgrading and $1 billion annually for maintenance. The authors conclude with a discussion of supporting institutional arrangements and the potential cost of implementing them.
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