Foundations for Building Forward Better

Abstract

Human capital development is a critical determinant of economic growth, equity, and prosperity, but outcomes in this domain are worryingly low inLebanon, risking the future of generations of children. Lebanese children lag behind their peers in human capital development—measured accordingto the World Bank (2020c) Human Capital Index—suggesting that the future productivity of the labor force and the country’s trajectory for equitablegrowth is at risk (World Bank 2020b). The Human Capital Index indicates that children born in Lebanon today will reach, on average, only 52 percentof their potential productivity when they grow up. This is lower than the average estimates for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region(57 percent) and upper-middle-income countries (56 percent). Lebanon’s poor performance on the Human Capital Index is largely attributed to theeducation outcomes calculated for the index. If actual years of schooling, which average approximately 10.2 years in Lebanon, are adjusted for actual learning, effective years of schooling are 40 percent less—on average, only 6.3 years of actual learning (World Bank 2020b). The most recent school closures were due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with schools being closed over 75 percent of the school year between January 2020 and February 2021.1 This will likely lead to a further and significant decrease in learning: effectively, students are facing a lost year of learning (Azevedo et al. 2021).