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The Impact of COVID-19 on Foreign Investors: Evidence from the Second Round of a Global Pulse Survey

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Date
2020-09
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2020-09
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The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the global economy, triggering the deepest global recession of the past eight decades. Together, the crisis and public health response have caused both a severe supply shock in the form of reduced worker availability and supply chaindisruptions, and a massive demand shock as consumption became restricted and confidence fell. The World Bank forecasts a 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP in 2020, including a 2.5 percent decline in emerging markets and developing economies (World Bank 2020).
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“Saurav, Abhishek; Kusek, Peter; Kuo, Ryan; Viney, Brody. 2020. The Impact of COVID-19 on Foreign Investors: Evidence from the Second Round of a Global Pulse Survey. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34638 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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    The Impact of COVID-19 on Foreign Investors
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12) Saurav, Abhishek; Kusek, Peter; Kuo, Ryan; Viney, Brody
    As the COVID-19 crisis extends into the second half of 2020, the outlook for both the pandemic and the associated economic crisis remains highly uncertain. In this environment, multinational enterprises (MNEs) need to weather a prolonged economic downturn while also navigating government policy responses to the pandemic and updating investment plans for an uncertain future. Given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the crisis and recovery, especially for developing countries, the World Bank Group’s Global Investment Climate Unit is conducting quarterly pulse surveys of MNE affiliates throughout 2020 to gauge the pandemic’s effect on foreign investors. According to previous rounds of the survey, four in five MNE affiliates experienced reduced revenue and profits, and three in four experienced a decline in supply chain reliability in the first quarter of 2020 (Saurav, Kusek, and Kuo, April 2020). The adverse impacts became near-universal in the second quarter of 2020, with over 90 percent of MNEs experiencing adverse effects (Saurav, Kusek, Kuo, and Viney, September 2020). A third round of the quarterly pulse survey, reflecting the third quarter of 2020, was administered in October and November 2020. The survey results show that the pandemic’s adverse effects remained widespread for MNE affiliates in the third quarter, with only limited improvements expected in the fourth quarter. While these survey results may not be generalizable to all developing countries, they are directionally indicative of MNEs’ experiences in developing countries.
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    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06) Saurav, Abhishek; Kusek, Peter; Kuo, Ryan; Viney, Brody
    As the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic enters its second year, foreign investors can see light at the end of the tunnel as economic conditions improve. Results from the latest round (Q1 2021) of World Bank Group’s quarterly pulse surveys of Multinational Enterprise (MNE) affiliates suggests that most firms are still operating below full capacity. The pandemic’s adverse effects on MNEs in developing countries continued to ease in the first quarter of 2021 (Q1 2021). Impacts remained widespread with 93 percent experiencing at least one adverse impact, but fewer firms report negative demand, output, revenue, and profit impacts (relative to Q1 2020) than in prior survey rounds. The average magnitude of these impacts was also more limited and continued to ease from Q4 2020. The longer-term outlook for foreign investment in developing countries remains subdued. Overall, 92 percent of firms report that their foreign parent had no plans to change (increase or decrease) the company’s level of investment over the next 1-3 years. Uncertainty about future demand is the key factor holding investment back, but policy and regulatory restrictions are also a factor for almost half of firms. Survey results confirmed that almost all MNE affiliates have increased their adoption of digital technologies for remote working, e-commerce, and supply chain management in response to the pandemic. Half of MNE affiliates also report increasing their focus on sustainability and decarbonization of products and services, with foreign parent companies again playing a critical role. While these survey results may not be generalizable to all developing countries, they are directionally indicative of MNEs’ experiences in developing countries
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