Publication: Trading Together: Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-COVID Era
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Date
2020-10-19
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Published
2020-10-19
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Arezki, Rabah
Moreno-Dodson, Blanca
Yuting Fan, Rachel
Gansey, Romeo
Cong Nguyen, Minh
Tsakas, Constantin
Wood, Christina
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Abstract
The MENA Economic Update is a product of the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa. This presents the short-term, macroeconomic outlook and economic challenges facing countries in the region.
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“Arezki, Rabah; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca; Yuting Fan, Rachel; Gansey, Romeo; Nguyen, Ha; Cong Nguyen, Minh; Mottaghi, Lili; Tsakas, Constantin; Wood, Christina. 2020. Trading Together: Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-COVID Era. Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, October 2020. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34516 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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This is in sharp contrast to the growth forecast of 2.6 percent published in October 2019. The growth downgrade of 3.7 percentage points is arguably a measure for the costs associated with the dual shocks of Covid-19 and the oil price collapse. These numbers are tentative. The true impact depends on future developments of the dual shocks, policy and society’s response, which depends on the transparent use of health and economic data. We recommend a two-step approach: It might be desirable to focus first on responding to the health emergency and the associated economic contraction. Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms associated with the persistent drop in oil prices and pre-existing challenges are also very important, but with proper external support, can wait until the health emergency subsides. Nevertheless, the MENA region has challenges that predate the crisis – it has been growing far slower than its peers. 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