Mottaghi, Lili

Person:
Mottaghi, Lili

Office of the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa

Fields of Specialization

Macroeconomics, Economic growth, Trade policy

ORCID

0000-0001-9161-2499

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Office of the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa

Last updated: January 31, 2023

Biography

Lili Mottaghi is a Senior Economist in the office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank. She leads the work on regional macroeconomic outlook and has developed two semi-annual flagship publications MENA Economic Monitor and MENA Quarterly Economic Brief which presents the World Bank Group’s views on regional economic developments and prospects, growth forecast, and policy challenges. She also leads the impact evaluation research in the newly established MNA Gender Research Hub at the World Bank. Ms. Mottaghi is the author and co-author of numerous publications including articles published in international journals and World Bank reports. Her research covers a wide range of topics in macroeconomics and development including inclusive growth, technology, and the digital economy, commodity market forecast, inequality, forced displacement, and conflict. Before joining the Bank, she worked at the Management and Planning Organization in Iran where she held senior positions in the areas of economic growth, development, and macroeconomic modeling. Ms. Mottaghi received her Master and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from Claremont Graduate University and University of Tehran.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 34

Trading Together: Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-COVID Era
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-10-19) Arezki, Rabah; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca; Yuting Fan, Rachel; Gansey, Romeo; Nguyen, Ha; Cong Nguyen, Minh; Mottaghi, Lili; Tsakas, Constantin; Wood, Christina
The MENA Economic Update is a product of the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa. This presents the short-term, macroeconomic outlook and economic challenges facing countries in the region.
Child Care Subsidies, Employment Services and Women's Labor Market Outcomes in Egypt: First Midline Results
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-07) Caria, Stefano; Crepon, Bruno; ElBehairy, Hala; Fadlalmawla, Noha; Krafft, Caroline; Nagy, Abdelrahman; Mottaghi, Lili; Zeitoun, Nahla; El Assiouty, Souraya
This paper contributes to the existing literature in several important ways. The existing literature on the impact of childcare subsidies is from contexts with relatively higher rates of female labor force participation. This work is thus an important test of whether alleviating care responsibilities and reducing the opportunity cost of women working through childcare subsidies can increase women’s participation in contexts and populations with lower participation. Likewise, although there is a sizable body of literature on employment services interventions, there is less evidence on whether they can help married women with young children. Lastly, recognizing that women in Egypt face a multitude of employment constraints, our experiment tests whether a combination of employment services and childcare subsidies has important complementarities, by alleviating multiple constraints at the same time. This paper examines the impact of the interventions on job search outcomes for women 3-4 months after the baseline survey and assignment to treatment for approximately half the planned sample. The first midline survey examines specifically job search behaviors: reservation wages, reservation job quality, and job search effort. The authors also discuss take-up of the two interventions and contextualize take-up and outcomes with information on norms about women’s work and childcare.
Evidence to Inform Policy: What Works to Close the Gender Gaps in Middle East and North Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05) Crepon, Bruno; Mottaghi, Lili; Krafft, Caroline; Caria, Stefano; Nagy , Abdelrahman; Fadl, Noha
The traditional unequal division of household chores and caregiving hinder women from entering the labor market. Women in Egypt spend 9.5 hours more on unpaid household chores for every hour spent by men. Forty percent of women reported spending more time on household chores during the COVID–19 pandemic. Lack of access to affordable childcare is a constraint on the female labor supply in Egypt. Almost 96 percent of women in the pilot study expressed interest in childcare centers, but high costs are a concern. Weak demand for female workers, especially in the STEM fields, limits women’s job opportunities. About 60 percent of employers reported that they prefer to hire men due to women’s household responsibilities. About 87 percent of respondents noted approval with women working. However, the support declined steadily as additional information about the nature of the job or working hours was specified. One-third of women said that their husbands would not allow them to work outside of the house, and none of the men agreed with women working in a mixed-gendered environment, highlighting restrictive gender norms’ impact on female labor supply. These findings underscore the importance of our two randomized interventions designed to provide low-cost childcare services and signal firms to hire women through our employment services.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018: A New Economy for Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10) Arezki, Rabah; Mottaghi, Lili; Barone, Andrea; Fan, Rachel Yuting; Harb, Amani Abou; Karasapan, Omer M.; Matsunaga, Hideki; Nguyen, Ha; de Soyres, Francois
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to rebound to an average of 2% in 2018, up from an average 1.4% in 2017. The modest rebound in growth is driven mostly by the recent rise in oil prices, which has benefitted the region’s oil exporters while putting pressure on the budgets of oil importers. The rebound also reflects the impact of modest reforms and stabilization efforts undertaken in some countries in the region. The report forecasts that regional growth will continue to improve modestly, to an average of 2.8% by the end of 2020 while there is the ongoing risk that instability in the region could worsen and dampen growth. Despite recovery, the slow pace of growth will not generate enough jobs for the region’s large youth population. New drivers of growth are needed to reach the level of job creation required. The report offers a roadmap for unlocking the enormous potential of the region’s large and well-educated youth population by embracing the new digital economy. Broader and bolder reforms will be needed to achieve this goal, along with critical investments in digital infrastructure. It will require the reorientation of education systems toward science and technology, the creation of modern telecommunications and payments systems, and a private-sector driven economy governed by regulations that encourage rather than stifle innovation.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2018: Economic Transformation
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-04-16) Arezki, Rabah; Mottaghi, Lili; Fan, Rachel Yuting; Kiendrebeogo, Youssouf; Lederman, Daniel; Barone, Andrea
After a sharp fall in 2017, economic growth in MENA is projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2018, thanks to the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies and reforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede. The outlook for MENA remains positive, and the growth rebound is expected to gain momentum over the next two years, exceeding 3 percent in 2020. While stabilization policies have helped economies adjust in recent years, .a second phase of reforms is needed should be transformative if the region is to reach its potential and create jobs for hundred million young people who will enter the labor market in coming decades. In this report, we explore the role that public-private partnerships can play. not only in providing an alternative source of financing but in helping change the role of the state from the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector activity. Studies have shown that the gap between MENA economies and fast-growing ones is the performance of the services sector. The disruptive technology offers new opportunities for boosting private-sector-led growth through enhancement of high-tech jobs in the services sector. The report argues that combining the region's fast-growing pool of university graduates and a heavy penetration of social media and smartphone, could serve as the foundation for a digital sector that could create much-needed private sector jobs for the youth over the next decade.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2017: Refugee Crisis in MENA, Meeting the Development Challenges
(Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2017-10-11) Devarajan, Shantayanan; Mottaghi, Lili
The pickup in economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to continue in 2018 and 2019. MENA's oil exporters and oil importers both are benefitting from improved global growth; increased trade with trading partners in Europe and Asia; more stabilized commodity markets, especially oil; and some reforms undertaken in the region. The World Bank estimates that growth will accelerate to above 3 percent in 2019. Growth, however, remains below potential as crises and conflicts continue to damage output and reduce employment. While MENA has experienced more frequent conflicts than any other part of the world, by its magnitude, the refugee crisis represents something new. The protracted stay of refugees in hosting communities, now in its sixth year, not only has increased the risk to MENA's economic outlook but also has brought refugees' long-term development challenges to the forefront. Meeting these enormous challenges requires collective efforts.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2017: The Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in MENA
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-04-17) Devarajan, Shantayanan; Mottaghi, Lili
Plagued by war, violence and low oil prices, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remained subdued between 2013 and 2015, but the situation is expected to improve and growth to surge above 3 percent over the forecast period. Though still below potential, the improvement in growth offers hope. We see signs of "green shoots" in some countries in the region, therefore we have upgraded our short-term prospects for MENA from "cautiously pessimistic" to "cautiously optimistic" over the forecast period. The prospects of peace in Syria, Yemen and Libya are one of the keys to resuming growth over the next decade. But realizing that potential depends crucially on how the post-conflict reconstruction is conducted. On the one hand, a well-managed process could help these war-tom countries rebuild their shattered economies and re-integrate their people so that the region as a whole, and possibly the rest of the world, benefits. On the other hand, a badly managed process can risk a recurrence of conflict, continued stagnation and suffering, and perpetual fragility. The economics of postconflict reconstruction, therefore, is critical to the future of MENA's economies.
Disruptive Technology: New Growth Engine for MENA?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-05) Mottaghi, Lili
MENA economies have been experiencing moderate to high growth in GDP with stagnant growth in employment, a phenomenon of "jobless growth" since the 1970s. This dire situation in MENA is a result of the existing social contract, in which the state is the main provider of public sector jobs and social and economic benefits to citizens in exchange for limited public participation and accountability.
Refugee Welfare: A Global Public Good
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-04) Mottaghi, Lili
This brief discusses about the refugees welfare in Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Refugee flows can significantly alter the social and economic fabric of host communities, with the impact depending on initial conditions in labor markets, access to resources, demographics, labor laws, and the policy responses of host governments. Most refugees are concentrated in relatively fragile countries, many relatively small and economically vulnerable, including Kenya, Lebanon, and Jordan. To recognize the global public good that Lebanon and Jordan provided by opening their borders to Syrian refugees, in April 2016, the World Bank, the United Nations, and Islamic Development Bank, in close collaboration with the donor community and a range of international partners, launched the Concessional Financing Facility (CFF). The CFF focused on helping Jordan and Lebanon address the impact of Syrian refugees without having to increase their debt levels. As of April 2018, the renamed Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF) has leveraged concessional financing to Lebanon and Jordan for ten projects.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2016: Syria, Reconstruction for Peace
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-04-11) Do, Quy-Toan; Devarajan, Shantayanan; Jelil, Mohamed Abdel; Mottaghi, Lili
The short term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains “cautiously pessimistic”. A combination of civil wars and refugee inflows, terrorist attacks, cheap oil, and subdued global economic recovery is expected to keep average growth in the MENA region around 3 percent in 2016, for the fourth year in a row. Furthermore, the humanitarian and economic situation in the war torn countries keep deteriorating. In this report we will explore ways in which a strategy of reconstruction of Syria—the most war-ravaged country in the region—could help foster a sustainable peace. This report argues that the impact of the civil war on the Syrian society will be persistent, and the challenges facing the country need to be addressed now. The report calls for the international community to be the guarantor of an inclusive reconstruction strategy that not only makes peace sustainable tomorrow, but makes it happen today: peace and reconstruction are two sides of the same coin.