Publication: South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Kazakhstan Country Case Study
Loading...
Files in English
3,126 downloads
Date
2020-06
ISSN
Published
2020-06
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Kazakhstan is an upper-middle income, resource rich country. Its ascent to upper-middle income status was propelled by rising oil production and booming oil prices which pushed the average annual rate to above 7 percent during 2000-2013. The halving of world oil prices and lower export demand since resulted in a sharp slowdown with an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent in 2014-17. Growth picked up modestly recently but remains a far cry from the levels seen in early 2000s. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic and the slump in commodity prices further dents the growth outlook. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakh economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Kazakhstan Country Case Study. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34117 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Kyrgyz economy has been, since its earliest days, the most liberal and open among Central Asian countries resulting in an atypical structural transformation with limited productivity growth. It was the first Central Asian country to become a WTO member in 1998 and its trade share in GDP is the highest in the region. This is largely due to the flourishing cross-border trade with Kyrgyz Republic’s large markets, Dordoi and Kara-Su, intermediating large volumes of goods: importing goods through both formal and informal trade systems, mainly from China, and re-exporting (in few cases with some value-addition) most of that to other economies in the region. It has highly entrepreneurial traders and a logistics-system that caters well to this large ‘entrepot’ trade. Agriculture and light manufacturing have contributed to its exports. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakh economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Georgia is the only country in the CAC region that can access markets around the world through its own seaports and thus less dependent on China’s BRI overland corridors for trade, investment and growth. Nevertheless, the Georgian government is investing in the one BRI corridor China, Europe route that passes through the Caucuses, partly because it provides a faster route to China. The potential for larger volume of Chinese transit cargo on this route may also be attractive given its desire to become a major transit and trading hub in the region. With greater people-to-people contact between China and Georgia, there could also be greater access to China’s outward FDI under the BRI that would bring with it capital, better technology as well as managerial and marketing know-how. Chinese private firms are already investing in Tbilisi, Kutaisi and other areas in the country. Georgia’s liberal investment and trade regime, especially its free trade agreements with the European Union (EU), China, Turkey, and its location, make it eminently suited for such FDI inflows, including participation in China-centric Global Value Chains (GVCs). This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Georgian economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Georgia’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Georgia’s shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within-country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact, mitigate risks and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Uzbekistan is a resource-rich country with a relatively young population of 33 million, the largest in Central Asia. It is also a geographic pivot for the region, bordering all other Central Asian countries and Afghanistan, with transit connections in all directions. As a double landlocked country, it is uniquely dependent on these cross-border transport connections and on how well they work. It can also potentially be the largest market in Central Asia and given its sizeable young labor force and substantial agricultural and manufacturing capacity, a major regional exporter. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Armenia is a small land-locked mountainous country with relatively difficult access to regional and global markets. The borders with Azerbaijan in the east and with Turkey in the southwest and west are closed. Only the borders with Georgia in the north and Iran in the south are open for trade and transport. Roads dominate its mode of transportation because of its mostly mountainous terrain. The only cross-border rail connection is through Georgia. None of the BRI-corridors pass through the country and even the one that goes through Georgia is only accessible in the western direction. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Armenian economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration, discusses improvements in Armenia’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Armenian shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI-related reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within-country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact, mitigate risks and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Tajikistan is the poorest country in the region despite strong growth for nearly two decades; sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but nearly a third of its population, of around 9 million, live in poverty. Its growth of 6-7 percent per year since 2000 was fueled by growth in consumption and public investment, the latter driven mainly by rising remittances and export receipts from aluminum and cotton. Private investment and growth of other exports remained weak, and the fiscal situation, fragile for most of that period. Accordingly, the National Development Strategy 2030 (NDS) seeks to address those weaknesses. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17)Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.Publication Supporting Youth at Risk(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)The World Bank has produced this policy Toolkit in response to a growing demand from our government clients and partners for advice on how to create and implement effective policies for at-risk youth. The author has highlighted 22 policies (six core policies, nine promising policies, and seven general policies) that have been effective in addressing the following five key risk areas for young people around the world: (i) youth unemployment, underemployment, and lack of formal sector employment; (ii) early school leaving; (iii) risky sexual behavior leading to early childbearing and HIV/AIDS; (iv) crime and violence; and (v) substance abuse. The objective of this Toolkit is to serve as a practical guide for policy makers in middle-income countries as well as professionals working within the area of youth development on how to develop and implement an effective policy portfolio to foster healthy and positive youth development.Publication Growth in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16)This issue of the MENA Economic Update presents a summary of recent macroeconomic trends, including an update of the conflict centered in Gaza and its regional spillovers, alongside an analysis of factors that shape the long-term growth potential of the region, with special attention to the persistent effects of conflicts. A modest uptick in growth is forecast for 2024, which nonetheless masks important disparities within the region. The acceleration is driven by the high-income oil exporters, while growth is expected to decelerate among developing MENA countries, both developing oil exporters and developing oil importers. Despite current challenges, the region can dramatically boost growth by better allocating talent in the labor market, leveraging its strategic location, and promoting innovation. Closing the gender employment gap, rethinking the footprint of the public sector, and facilitating technology transfers through trade under enhanced data quality and transparency can help the region leap toward the frontier. Peace is a pre-condition for catching up to the frontier, as conflict can undo decades of progress, delaying economic development by generations.Publication State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-21)This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national, and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and some of the drivers seen over the past year. Specifically, this report covers carbon taxes, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and crediting mechanisms. Key topics covered in the 2024 report include uptake of ETSs and carbon taxes in low- and middle- income economies, sectoral coverage of ETSs and carbon taxes, and the use of crediting mechanisms as part of the policy mix.