Publication: South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Kazakhstan Country Case Study
Date
2020-06
ISSN
Published
2020-06
Author(s)
World Bank
Abstract
Kazakhstan is an upper-middle income,
resource rich country. Its ascent to upper-middle income
status was propelled by rising oil production and booming
oil prices which pushed the average annual rate to above 7
percent during 2000-2013. The halving of world oil prices
and lower export demand since resulted in a sharp slowdown
with an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent in
2014-17. Growth picked up modestly recently but remains a
far cry from the levels seen in early 2000s. Furthermore,
the COVID-19 pandemic and the slump in commodity prices
further dents the growth outlook. This note assesses the
potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakh
economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the
BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and
greater economic integration of participating BRI countries,
discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-border
transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and
the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport
projects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looks
at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment
time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regional
distribution of that impact and how complementary polices
can enhance the positive impact and reduce regional
inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of
scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years
without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Kazakhstan Country Case Study. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34117 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”