Publication: South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Uzbekistan Country Case Study
Loading...
Files in English
6,215 downloads
Date
2020-06
ISSN
Published
2020-06
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Uzbekistan is a resource-rich country with a relatively young population of 33 million, the largest in Central Asia. It is also a geographic pivot for the region, bordering all other Central Asian countries and Afghanistan, with transit connections in all directions. As a double landlocked country, it is uniquely dependent on these cross-border transport connections and on how well they work. It can also potentially be the largest market in Central Asia and given its sizeable young labor force and substantial agricultural and manufacturing capacity, a major regional exporter. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Uzbekistan Country Case Study. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34121 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Kyrgyz economy has been, since its earliest days, the most liberal and open among Central Asian countries resulting in an atypical structural transformation with limited productivity growth. It was the first Central Asian country to become a WTO member in 1998 and its trade share in GDP is the highest in the region. This is largely due to the flourishing cross-border trade with Kyrgyz Republic’s large markets, Dordoi and Kara-Su, intermediating large volumes of goods: importing goods through both formal and informal trade systems, mainly from China, and re-exporting (in few cases with some value-addition) most of that to other economies in the region. It has highly entrepreneurial traders and a logistics-system that caters well to this large ‘entrepot’ trade. Agriculture and light manufacturing have contributed to its exports. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakh economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Kazakhstan is an upper-middle income, resource rich country. Its ascent to upper-middle income status was propelled by rising oil production and booming oil prices which pushed the average annual rate to above 7 percent during 2000-2013. The halving of world oil prices and lower export demand since resulted in a sharp slowdown with an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent in 2014-17. Growth picked up modestly recently but remains a far cry from the levels seen in early 2000s. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic and the slump in commodity prices further dents the growth outlook. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakh economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Georgia is the only country in the CAC region that can access markets around the world through its own seaports and thus less dependent on China’s BRI overland corridors for trade, investment and growth. Nevertheless, the Georgian government is investing in the one BRI corridor China, Europe route that passes through the Caucuses, partly because it provides a faster route to China. The potential for larger volume of Chinese transit cargo on this route may also be attractive given its desire to become a major transit and trading hub in the region. With greater people-to-people contact between China and Georgia, there could also be greater access to China’s outward FDI under the BRI that would bring with it capital, better technology as well as managerial and marketing know-how. Chinese private firms are already investing in Tbilisi, Kutaisi and other areas in the country. Georgia’s liberal investment and trade regime, especially its free trade agreements with the European Union (EU), China, Turkey, and its location, make it eminently suited for such FDI inflows, including participation in China-centric Global Value Chains (GVCs). This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Georgian economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Georgia’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Georgia’s shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within-country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact, mitigate risks and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Armenia is a small land-locked mountainous country with relatively difficult access to regional and global markets. The borders with Azerbaijan in the east and with Turkey in the southwest and west are closed. Only the borders with Georgia in the north and Iran in the south are open for trade and transport. Roads dominate its mode of transportation because of its mostly mountainous terrain. The only cross-border rail connection is through Georgia. None of the BRI-corridors pass through the country and even the one that goes through Georgia is only accessible in the western direction. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Armenian economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration, discusses improvements in Armenia’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Armenian shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI-related reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within-country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact, mitigate risks and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.Publication South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Tajikistan is the poorest country in the region despite strong growth for nearly two decades; sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but nearly a third of its population, of around 9 million, live in poverty. Its growth of 6-7 percent per year since 2000 was fueled by growth in consumption and public investment, the latter driven mainly by rising remittances and export receipts from aluminum and cotton. Private investment and growth of other exports remained weak, and the fiscal situation, fragile for most of that period. Accordingly, the National Development Strategy 2030 (NDS) seeks to address those weaknesses. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.Publication Supporting Youth at Risk(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)The World Bank has produced this policy Toolkit in response to a growing demand from our government clients and partners for advice on how to create and implement effective policies for at-risk youth. The author has highlighted 22 policies (six core policies, nine promising policies, and seven general policies) that have been effective in addressing the following five key risk areas for young people around the world: (i) youth unemployment, underemployment, and lack of formal sector employment; (ii) early school leaving; (iii) risky sexual behavior leading to early childbearing and HIV/AIDS; (iv) crime and violence; and (v) substance abuse. The objective of this Toolkit is to serve as a practical guide for policy makers in middle-income countries as well as professionals working within the area of youth development on how to develop and implement an effective policy portfolio to foster healthy and positive youth development.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.