Publication: Using Forecasting Systems to Reduce Cost and Improve Dispatch of Variable Renewable Energy
Loading...
Date
2019-07
ISSN
Published
2019-07
Editor(s)
Abstract
This technical guide is the fourth in a series of four technical guides on variable renewable energy (VRE) grid integration produced by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) of the World Bank and the Global Sustainable Electricity Partnership (GSEP). It provides guidance on the role and benefits of forecasting as a cost-effective operational solution to manage the uncertainty of VRE generation and facilitate the integration of larger shares of these resources in the energy mix. The guide focuses primarily on the types of forecasting methods and how physical and statistical models are used for developing short- to long-term forecasts. Technological advances in weather forecasting, together with better data on historical performance of renewable energy, allow significantly improved forecasting accuracy of VRE generation, which results in more efficient utilization. Examples from developing countries illustrate how the approach to forecasting varies depending on the country’s electricity market structure and requirements.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. 2019. Using Forecasting Systems to Reduce Cost and Improve Dispatch of Variable Renewable Energy. ESMAP Technical Guide;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32072 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Grid Integration Requirements for Variable Renewable Energy(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)This technical guide is the first in a series of four technical guides on variable renewable energy (VRE) grid integration produced by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) of the World Bank and the Global Sustainable Electricity Partnership (GSEP). It provides a general overview of the intrinsic characteristics of VRE generation, mainly solar PV and wind, what the main challenges are along with some recommendations for VRE technical specifications, applicable standards, and essential testing. The main focus of the document presents a detailed outline of the essential requirements for VRE integration into the power grid. The requirements differ for different levels of penetration but would require fundamental grid compliance requirements that must be reflected in any grid. This document provides these requirements along with recommendations of advanced VRE integration requirements that could be reflected in the power system operations with these VRE resources. The compliance with the technical requirements where applicable is validated through extensive series of interconnection studies which are further elaborated in "STUDIES FOR GRID CONNECTION OF VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION PLANTS – Technical Guide 3".Publication Assessing and Mapping Renewable Energy Resources, Second Edition(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12)Understanding the location and potential of renewable energy resources is a crucial pre-requisite to their utilization, and to scaling up clean and secure sources of electricity generation such as biomass, small hydropower, solar, and wind. However many countries do not have high quality, publicly available data on renewable energy resource potential and this limits the potential for informed policy development, including zoning guidance, transmission network planning, and price regulation or incentives. It also narrows the field of potential commercial developers, and raises the cost of undertaking preliminary site identification and financial analyses. This report draws on many years of experience within the World Bank Group and among other development partners in carrying out renewable energy resource assessment and mapping at the country level, in particular from 12 projects funded by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) under a major global initiative launched in 2012. The report’s purpose is to explain, for a wide range of audiences, the importance of resource assessment and mapping, key steps and good practices, methodological issues, and potential sources for further advice and support.Publication Compensation Devices to Support Grid Integration of Variable Renewable Energy(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-07)This technical guide is the second in a series of four technical guides on variable renewable energy (VRE) grid integration produced by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) of the World Bank and the Global Sustainable Electricity Partnership (GSEP). It focuses on the main functionalities, differences and benefits of various compensation devices that can be employed to increase system transfer capacity, system stability, power quality and flexibility to cope with increasing penetrations of renewables in the system. The applications of FACTS devices are associated with four essential technical enhancements of system capacity, system reliability, power quality and system controllability. The application of the FACTS devices for these enhancements would depend on the system needs which would be identified and recommended through the power system studies during the interconnection process. Power system studies are further elaborated in "STUDIES FOR GRID CONNECTION OF VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION PLANTS – Technical Guide 3".Publication Warranties for Battery Energy Storage Systems in Developing Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08-01)In developing countries, battery storage is becoming a viable way to increase system flexibility and enable more integration of variable renewable energy. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) respond rapidly to control signals, are easy to deploy, and are benefiting from cost reduction trends. New battery technologies have valuable attributes that are well suited to the needs of developing countries. However, they have a rather short track record in terms of deployment and operation, and this can hamper efforts to reassure buyers and investors that these new technologies will perform reliably over their project life. Conditions found in some developing countries may present extra challenges as energy storage systems need to operate in harsh climate conditions, often in remote locations with limited data access. Warranties for BESS provide mechanisms for buyers and investors to mitigate the technical and operational risks of battery projects, by transferring the risk of a manufacturing defect or performance issues to the manufacturer or the battery vendor. Warranties are used in the same way for traditional generation technologies, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind.Publication Scaling Up Renewables in Europe and Central Asia(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23)Although not on track to meet climate targets, renewables for electricity production are rising globally, having reached nearly 30 percent of total electricity generation in 2022. Renewable energy - based electricity - including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass - are mature, least-cost technologies in the decarbonization pathways, providing no-regret solutions to policy makers in the short to medium terms. Non-hydro renewables make up a mix of energy sources that rose more than seven-fold in a decade, increasing the percentage of generation over the last ten years. The findings of this report informed several World Bank operations in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) including the ECA renewable energy scale-up (World Bank ECARES) multiphase programmatic approach (MPA) to enhance energy security and affordability. The program was launched in March 2024 with an initial World Bank lending envelope of US 2 billion dollars, that will aim to mobilize and enable up to US 6 billion dollars of private investment in clean energy. The report informed all of the three pillars of the program including enabling policies and institutional frameworks, investments to develop flexible electricity networks, and financing and risk mitigation instruments for clean energy investments in ECA.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2025: Accelerating Growth through Entrepreneurship, Technology Adoption, and Innovation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-23)Business dynamism and economic growth in Europe and Central Asia have weakened since the late 2000s, with productivity growth driven largely by resource reallocation between firms and sectors rather than innovation. To move up the value chain, countries need to facilitate technology adoption, stronger domestic competition, and firm-level innovation to build a more dynamic private sector. Governments should move beyond broad support for small- and medium-sized enterprises and focus on enabling the most productive firms to expand and compete globally. Strengthening competition policies, reducing the presence of state-owned enterprises, and ensuring fair market access are crucial. Limited availability of long-term financing and risk capital hinders firm growth and innovation. Economic disruptions are a shock in the short term, but they provide an opportunity for implementing enterprise and structural reforms, all of which are essential for creating better-paying jobs and helping countries in the region to achieve high-income status.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.