Publication: How Does Violence Force Displacement during Active Conflict?: Evidence from the Republic of Yemen
Loading...
Published
2022-09
ISSN
Date
2022-09-15
Editor(s)
Abstract
The ways in which violence forces displacement are not well understood given difficulties in collecting data during conflict. This paper investigates this issue during the Republic of Yemen's conflict, which has led to a large forced displacement crisis. First, it demonstrates that violence significantly escalated leading up to and following displacement in the districts from which displaced households fled, and this escalation exceeded that of households that did not become displaced and that of regions to which displaced households moved. Second, the paper demonstrates that the escalation of violence around the time of displacement varied by type of violence. Violence from ground battles escalated leading up to and following displacement- the type of violence with the largest number of fatalities per violent incident and that is most associated with the capture of territory; but other prevalent types of violence either peaked prior to displacement or did not appear to be strongly associated with displacement. And third, it demonstrates that there was a significant amount of heterogeneity in the violence experienced by households before displacement. A significant share of displaced households fled during times of no violence, but violence escalated in the regions from which these households fled following displacement. The paper argues that the last result is likely explained, in part, by these households being more averse to potential violence than other Yemeni households were. Combined, these results corroborate that violence is pivotal to forced displacement, but further illustrate the complexities of deciding whether and when to become displaced.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“D'Souza, Anna; Favari, Eliana; Krishnaswamy, Siddharth; Tandon, Sharad. 2022. How Does Violence Force Displacement during Active Conflict?: Evidence from the Republic of Yemen. Policy Research Working Papers;10177. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38024 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Stanley Fischer Memorial Lecture: Geopolitics and Development—The World Bank ABCDE Conference(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-01)This paper provides a sweeping historical overview of how geopolitics has shaped economic development and global institutions, culminating in a forward-looking analysis of challenges facing the world in 2025. The paper argues that understanding economic history and the political economy is essential for effective policy making, as geopolitics—encompassing power politics, geography, security, and ecology—fundamentally influences development economics. It traces the dynamic interplay between geopolitics and development across major historical periods: from the European Age of Discovery and the rise of nation-states, through the world wars and the Bretton Woods era, to the Cold War and the age of globalization. It highlights how crises and conflicts have repeatedly transformed global economic systems, spurring new ideas and institutions. Looking ahead, the paper identifies key trends for 2025—fragmented global governance amid ongoing globalization (migration, climate change, and debt), shifting security contexts with territorial disputes and nuclear risks, and the intersection of energy, climate, demographics, and migration with development—as it predicts increased economic nationalism and regionalization in finance and trade. The paper concludes by emphasizing the adaptive role of multilateral institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, advocating for a holistic approach to development economics that integrates political and economic institutions, governance, and both macro and micro markets.Publication Gender Gaps in the Performance of Small Firms: Evidence from Urban Peru(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23)This paper estimates the gender gap in the performance of firms in Peru using representative data on both formal and informal firms. On average, informal female-led firms have lower sales, labor productivity, and profits compared to their male-led counterparts, with differences more pronounced when controlling for observable determinants of firm performance. However, gender gaps are only significant at the bottom of the performance distribution of informal firms, and these gaps disappear at the top of the distribution of informal firms and for formal firms. Possible explanations for the performance gaps at the bottom of the distribution include the higher likelihood of small, female-led firms being home-based, which is linked to lower profits, and their concentration in less profitable sectors. The paper provides suggestive evidence that household responsibilities play a key role in explaining the gender gap in firm performance among informal firms. Therefore, policies that promote access to care services or foster a more equal distribution of household activities may reduce gender productivity gaps and allow for a more efficient allocation of resources.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Consequences of Forced Displacement in Active Conflict(World Bank, Washington, DC:, 2022-09)This paper investigate the consequences of forced displacement using a panel of households that were surveyed during the Republic of Yemen's conflict both before and after they became displaced. It demonstrates that forced displacement resulted in an immediate but temporary decline in food access. Pre- and post-displacement food access outcomes were indistinguishable within four months of displacement and, for later months, there were no economically large declines in food access. The quick rebound is partially explained by an increase in assistance to displaced households that had worse food access prior to displacement. Households that were slightly better off prior to displacement did not receive an increase in assistance. These are the first estimates that directly address how non-security dimensions of well-being change immediately following forced displacement and demonstrate that, in some contexts, forcibly displaced households are more resilient than is typically assumed.Publication Active Conflict and Access to Education(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07)Using a high-frequency survey in the Republic of Yemen, this paper demonstrates how school attendance responds to a series of conflict-related shocks. First, there are plausibly exogenous changes in violence that have limited impacts on school attendance but do affect other dimensions of well-being. And second, consequences of conflict aside from living in close proximity to violence can impact attendance. The importance of a wide variety of conflict shocks suggests that an understanding of all shocks is needed before attributing the cause of attendance changes in such tumultuous settings, and these results have implications for the delivery of education assistance in conflict settings.Publication Are Subjective Questions on Welfare Appropriate during Crises?(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-09)Subjective questions on welfare, such as satisfaction with particular welfare dimensions, are increasingly being used to measure changes in well-being during crises. Although subjective questions on welfare have well-known limitations, it is possible that analyzing changes in response to large events can address some of these concerns. However, this paper illustrates a new difficulty in interpreting changes in such measures in tumultuous circumstances. Specifically, crises can impact both the scale with which households report their subjective assessments and the behaviors from which deprivations are traditionally inferred, and it is unclear how well subjective measures align with traditional welfare metrics in such a setting. This paper demonstrates the importance of this issue following the onset of the conflict in the Republic of Yemen, which caused large declines in nearly all traditional measures of well-being. However, the findings show that households reported a large increase in satisfaction in the same welfare dimensions where deprivations increased.Publication Addressing the Needs of Women and Girls in Contexts of Forced Displacement(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019)This review focuses on women and girls who have been forcibly displaced. Gender inequality is not left behind when women and girls are forced to flee their homes. In situations of displacement, women and girls are most exposed to adversity, and many of the risks they face, such as gender-based violence, are heightened. Women are among the most vulnerable, facing a number of challenges including extreme poverty, lack of access to basic infrastructure and services, and the impacts of climate change on livelihoods and human well-being. Internalized inequality can limit women's ability to overcome adverse experiences. With that in mind, World Bank projects must consider the different circumstances of women and girls/men and boys to deliver benefits to those that need them most. The objective of this portfolio review is twofold: (i) to assess how World Bank operations to date have addressed the different needs of forcibly displaced women and girls/men and boys in fragile, conflict, and violence (FCV) contexts; and (ii) to distill lessons and guidance for task teams, including those designing operations under the new International Development Association (IDA18) refugee window and the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF). The review is limited to considering how the needs of women and girls have been addressed, as no operations were found that identified gender specific needs of forcibly displaced men and boys, or sought to close gender gaps that affected these men and boys adversely.Publication Effect of Armed Conflict on Intimate Partner Violence(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-03)Intimate partner violence is the most common form of violence against women in conflict and non-conflict settings, but in conflict settings it often receives less attention than other forms of gender-based violence, such as conflict-related sexual violence. Using data from the 2008 and 2013 Domestic Violence module of the Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey spatially linked to the Boko Haram actor file of the Armed Conflict Location and Events Database, this paper employs a kernel-based difference-in-difference model to examine the effect of the Boko Haram insurgency on women's experience of physical and sexual intimate partner violence. It also examines the effect of the Boko Haram insurgency on women's experience of controlling behavior from a husband or partner, women's autonomy in household decision making, and their control over their own earnings. The paper finds that the Boko Haram insurgency is associated with slower progress toward preventing and eliminating women's experiences of physical and sexual intimate partner violence. Controlling behaviors from husbands/partners and reductions in women's autonomy in household decision making are heightened in locations that are impacted by the Boko Haram insurgency, indicating that the Boko Haram insurgency adversely affects women's agency and exacerbates behaviors that are often precursors to intimate partner violence.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.