Publication: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2020
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2020-04-23
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2020-04-20
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Almost all commodity prices saw sharp declines during the past three months as the COVID-19 pandemic worsened. Mitigation measures have significantly reduced transport, causing an unprecedented decline in demand for oil, while weaker economic growth will further reduce overall commodity demand. Crude oil prices are expected to average $35/bbl this year and $42/bbl in 2021—sharp downward revisions from October. Metals prices are projected to drop more than 13 percent in 2020, before recovering in 2021, while food prices are expected to remain broadly stable. The price forecasts are subject to significant risks. A Special Focus looks at the impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets and finds that its effects have already been larger than most previous events and may lead to long-term shifts in global commodity markets. Another section looks at international commodity production agreements and concludes that while the current OPEC arrangement may stabilize oil markets in the short term, it will likely be subject to the same shortcomings of earlier efforts to manage commodity supplies in due course.
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“World Bank Group. 2020. Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2020. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33624 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2023: Lower Prices, Little Relief(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-04-27)Global commodity prices fell 14 percent in the first quarter of 2023, and by the end of March, they were roughly 30 percent below their June 2022 peak. The unwinding of prices reflects a combination of slowing economic activity, favorable winter weather, and a global reallocation of commodity trade flows. Commodity prices are expected to fall by 21 percent this year and remain mostly stable in 2024, although the outlook is subject to multiple risks in a highly uncertain environment. These risks include intensification of geopolitical tensions, the strength of demand from China following its post-COVID reopening, likely energy supply disruptions, and weather conditions, including the emerging El Niño. 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