Publication: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2019
Loading...
Files in English
34,793 downloads
Published
2019-04-23
ISSN
Date
2019-04-15
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Commodity Markets Outlook provides market analysis for major commodity groups -- energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. The report forecasts prices for 46 key commodities, including oil. It is published in April and October. The April 2019 report has a special focus on food prices.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2019. Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2019. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31549 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04-23)Almost all commodity prices saw sharp declines during the past three months as the COVID-19 pandemic worsened. Mitigation measures have significantly reduced transport, causing an unprecedented decline in demand for oil, while weaker economic growth will further reduce overall commodity demand. Crude oil prices are expected to average $35/bbl this year and $42/bbl in 2021—sharp downward revisions from October. Metals prices are projected to drop more than 13 percent in 2020, before recovering in 2021, while food prices are expected to remain broadly stable. The price forecasts are subject to significant risks. A Special Focus looks at the impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets and finds that its effects have already been larger than most previous events and may lead to long-term shifts in global commodity markets. Another section looks at international commodity production agreements and concludes that while the current OPEC arrangement may stabilize oil markets in the short term, it will likely be subject to the same shortcomings of earlier efforts to manage commodity supplies in due course.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2019(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10-29)Commodity Markets Outlook provides market analysis for major commodity groups -- energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. The report forecasts prices for 46 key commodities, including oil. It is published in April and October. The October 2019 report has a special focus on the role of substitution in commodity demand.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-04-24)Commodity prices strengthened in the first quarter of 2018. Broad-based price increases were supported by both demand and supply factors. Accelerating global growth lifted demand for commodities, while a number of commodities faced supply constraints. For oil and precious metals, concerns about mounting geopolitical risk also supported prices. Crude oil prices are expected to average $65 per barrel (bbl) in 2018 (up from $53/bbl in 2017) and remain at $65/bbl in 2019—an upward revision from the October 2017 forecast. Metals prices are expected to increase 9 percent in 2018 and, following three years of relative stability, agricultural prices are expected to gain 2 percent in 2018. Looking ahead, policy actions currently under discussion, such as additional tariffs, production cuts, and sanctions, present risks to the short-term outlook. This edition also analyzes the policies of oil exporting economies in response to the 2014 oil price collapse. It concludes that oil exporters with flexible currency regimes, larger fiscal buffers, and more diversified economies fared better than others. The experience of the past four years is a reminder of the urgent need for greater economic diversification and stronger monetary and fiscal policy frameworks in oil exporters.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-20)Commodity prices continued to recover in the first quarter of 2021 from lows reached in 2020, supported by the global economic recovery, improved growth prospects, and supply factors specific to crude oil, copper, and some food commodities. Looking ahead, oil prices are forecast to average $56/bbl in 2021, 36 percent higher than in 2020, and see a further rise to $60/bbl in 2022 as demand continues to recover. Metal prices are expected to average 30 percent higher in 2021 than in 2020 on the back of strong demand before dropping back somewhat in 2022. Agriculture prices are forecast to average nearly 14 percent higher in 2021, driven by a few food commodities, and are expected to stabilize thereafter. A Special Focus section examines the impact of metal price shocks on metal-exporting countries. Since global metal prices are predominantly driven by global demand shocks, metal price swings can amplify the impact of global downturns and recessions—or conversely, upturns—for metal exporters. Metal price jumps are associated with small, temporary gains from price increases for metal exporters, but metal price collapses tend to lead to larger, and longerlasting, output losses.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-22)Almost all commodity prices recovered in the third quarter of 2020 following steep declines earlier in the year. Crude oil prices have doubled since April in response to supply cuts but remain much lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Metal prices recovered rapidly due to supply disruptions and a faster-than-expected pickup in China’s industrial activity. Some food prices have also risen amid production shortfalls in edible oils. Oil prices are expected to average $44/bbl in 2021, up from an estimated $41/bbl in 2020. Metal and agricultural prices are projected to see modest gains of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, in 2021. A Special Focus looks at the nature of shocks on 27 commodity prices during 1970-2019. It finds that highly persistent (“permanent”) and short-lived (“transitory”) shocks have contributed almost equally to commodity price variation, although with wide heterogeneity across commodities. Permanent shocks account for most of agricultural commodity price variability while transitory shocks are more relevant in industrial commodity prices.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28)Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.Publication Compendium of International and National Legal Frameworks on Sexual Harassment in the Workplace(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12)Sexual Harassment in the Workplace (SHWP) is a universal and widespread phenomenon that affects millions of women of all social strata worldwide. It is an endemic issue that has gained increased visibility and attention since the beginning of the “#MeToo” movement. In this Compendium on International and National Legal Frameworks on Sexual Harassment in the Workplace (the “Compendium”), SHWP is understood as a gender-specific form of violence, commonly directed against women and occurring in employment or the workplace. It includes requests for sexual favors, unwelcome sexual advances or other sexual conduct, whether physical or verbal, which involves a “quid pro quo” aspect (e.g. request for sexual favors used to make employment decisions) and/or creates an intimidating, hostile, toxic, humiliating or offensive working environment. As one of the pervasive expressions of gender-based violence, it reflects discriminatory social norms, stereotypes, impunity and gender inequality. SHWP is viewed as a development challenge and has high economic and social costs. Despite its serious implications for women, employers and society at large, the behavior is widely accepted and minimized. The Compendium provides a survey of the key international and regional instruments as well as national legislation as they relate to SHWP.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.