Publication: Land Price Effects of Informality, Farm Size, and Land Reform: Evidence from More Than One Million Transactions in Ukraine
Loading...
Date
2025-01-02
ISSN
Published
2025-01-02
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper uses a rich set of geo-coded administrative and remotely sensed data on more than 1 million agricultural land transactions in Ukraine to explore how informality, size, and recent land reforms affect land prices. Three main findings are highlighted. First, absence of registered rights generates large negative externalities, the size of which plausibly exceeds the cost of registering all land. By contrast, informality of lease contracts is a choice that may enable owners to evade regulatory obstacles that prevent them from renegotiating contracts to obtain more favorable terms. Second, while land market liberalization generated significant indirect benefits, gains are unevenly distributed. Furthermore, competition in sales markets remains limited, pointing to scope for measures—including reducing the transaction costs of selling land and accessing mortgage finance, improving publicity of pending land sales, and use of electronic auctions—to enhance the reforms’ impact on efficiency and equity. Third, size at the parcel, field, and farm levels is associated with higher per hectare prices, pointing to scope for market-based land consolidation and growth of medium-size farms to increase land values and productivity. Achieving this potential will require measures to limit speculative land acquisition and exercise of market power by making local land markets more competitive and using market-based land valuation as a basis for taxing land on a recurrent basis and any capital gains due to land appreciation.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Deininger, Klaus; Ali, Daniel Ayalew. 2025. Land Price Effects of Informality, Farm Size, and Land Reform: Evidence from More Than One Million Transactions in Ukraine. Policy Research Working Paper; 11013. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42590 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Geopolitics and the World Trading System(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23)Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication From Patriarchy to Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Legal institutions play an important role in shaping gender equality in economic domains, from inheritance to labor markets. But where do gender equal laws come from? Using cross-country data on social norms and legal equality, this paper investigates the socio-cultural roots of gender inequity in the legal system and its implications for female labor force participation. To identify the impact of social norms, the analysis uses an empirical strategy that exploits pre-modern differences in ancestral patriarchal culture as an instrument for present-day gender norms. The findings show that ancestral patriarchal culture is a strong predictor of contemporary norms, and conservative social norms are associated with more gender inequality in the de jure legal framework, the de facto implementation of laws, and the labor market. The paper presents evidence for a political selection mechanism linking norms to laws: countries with more conservative norms elect political leaders who are more hostile to gender equality, who then pass less progressive legislation. The results highlight the cultural roots and political drivers of legalized gender inequality.Publication Global Socio-economic Resilience to Natural Disasters(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-22)Most disaster risk assessments use damages to physical assets as their central metric, often neglecting distributional impacts and the coping and recovery capacity of affected people. To address this shortcoming, the concepts of well-being losses and socio-economic resilience—the ability to experience asset losses without a decline in well-being—have been proposed. This paper uses microsimulations to produce a global estimate of well-being losses from, and socio-economic resilience to, natural disasters, covering 132 countries. On average, each $1 in disaster-related asset losses results in well-being losses equivalent to a $2 uniform national drop in consumption, with significant variation within and across countries. The poorest income quintile within each country incurs only 9% of national asset losses but accounts for 33% of well-being losses. Compared to high-income countries, low-income countries experience 67% greater well-being losses per dollar of asset losses and require 56% more time to recover. Socio-economic resilience is uncorrelated with exposure or vulnerability to natural hazards. However, a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with a 0.9 percentage point gain in resilience, but this benefit arises indirectly—such as through higher rate of formal employment, better financial inclusion, and broader social protection coverage—rather than from higher income itself. This paper assess ten policy options and finds that socio-economic and financial interventions (such as insurance and social protection) can effectively complement asset-focused measures (e.g., construction standards) and that interventions targeting low-income populations usually have higher returns in terms of avoided well-being losses per dollar invested.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Is There a Farm-Size Productivity Relationship in African Agriculture? Evidence from Rwanda(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-02)Whether the negative relationship between farm size and productivity that is confirmed in a large global literature holds in Africa is of considerable policy relevance. This paper revisits this issue and examines potential causes of the inverse productivity relationship in Rwanda, where policy makers consider land fragmentation and small farm sizes to be key bottlenecks for the growth of the agricultural sector. Nationwide plot-level data from Rwanda point toward a constant returns to scale crop production function and a strong negative relationship between farm size and output per hectare as well as intensity of labor use that is robust across specifications. The inverse relationship continues to hold if profits with family labor valued at shadow wages are used, but disappears if family labor is rather valued at village-level market wage rates. These findings imply that, in Rwanda, labor market imperfections, rather than other unobserved factors, seem to be a key reason for the inverse farm-size productivity relationship.Publication Using Registry Data to Assess Gender-Differentiated Land and Credit Market Effects of Urban Land Policy Reform(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)Since 2010, Lesotho has implemented legal and institutional changes to allow female land ownership, established a new land agency, reduced the cost of registering land, and carried out systematic urban land titling. Analysis using administrative data shows that these reforms triggered discontinuous and sustained changes in quality of service delivery, female land ownership, and registered land sales and mortgage volume. Land and credit market activation is, however, exclusively due to policy reforms. While (subsidized) systematic land registration allows women to access documented land rights, these effects may not be sustained without further regulatory change, highlighting the importance of reducing fees and streamlining processes to improve urban land and financial market functioning as a key precondition for Africa’s expected wave of urbanization translating into productive cities and jobs.Publication How Urban Land Titling and Registry Reform Affect Land and Credit Markets(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-05)Using spatial fixed effects and time-varying controls, this paper draws on complete registry data for 1981–2019, supplemented by satellite imagery, to analyze impacts of urban land titling for some 40,000 grid cells in Lesotho. Beyond confirming the short-term impacts on female co-ownership and investment, previously reported, the paper documents medium-term impacts on land sale and mortgage market activity and women’s participation in these markets. Although titling was instrumental in ensuring the effectiveness of an earlier legal reform that allowed women to be co-owners of land, the credit and land market effects are due not to titling but to changes in policy to reduce the transaction cost of registering land that took effect just before titling started. Downward shifts in the time required to register transactions support this interpretation. The paper concludes by discussing what the evidence implies for design and evaluation of property registration programs.Publication Does Title Increase Large Farm Productivity? Institutional Determinants of Large Land-Based Investments’ Performance in Zambia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)The importance of well-functioning land markets for structural transformation via labor movements to the non-agricultural sector, growth in farm size, and the ability to use land as collateral for credit and has long motivated Government efforts at reducing the transaction costs of registering and transferring land and supporting large farm formation. Rigorous evidence on the effect of such measures has, however, been scant. This paper explores the impact of institutional arrangements on productivity for a representative sample of 3,000 large farms in Zambia, one of the earliest African adopters of such policies to close this gap. Instrumental-variable (IV) regressions suggest title has no effect on productivity, investment, or credit access and reduces rather than improves rental market participation. Measures to harness Zambia’s potential include improving title quality through exclusive use of digital registries; imposition of a land tax on state land to incentivize productive rather than speculative land use and cancel outdated legacy documents; and greater involvement of traditional authorities in record maintenance and land management, possibly via land tax revenue sharing.Publication Productivity Effects of Land Rental Markets in Ethiopia : Evidence from a Matched Tenant-Landlord Sample(2011-07-01)As countries increasingly strive to transform their economies from agriculture-based into a diversified one, land rental will become of greater importance. It will thus be critical to complement research on the efficiency of specific land rental arrangements -- such as sharecropping -- with an inquiry into the broader productivity impacts of the land rental market. Plot-level data for a matched landlord-tenant sample in an environment where sharecropping dominates allows this paper to explore both issues. The authors find that pure output sharing leads to significantly lower levels of efficiency that can be attenuated by monitoring while the inefficiency disappears if inputs are shared as well. Rentals transfer land to more productive producers but realization of this productivity advantage is prevented by the inefficiency of contractual arrangements, suggesting changes that would prompt adoption of different contractual arrangements could have significant benefits.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Services Unbound(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-09)Services are a new force for innovation, trade, and growth in East Asia and Pacific. The dramatic diffusion of digital technologies and partial policy reforms in services--from finance, communication, and transport to retail, health, and education--is transforming these economies. The result is higher productivity and changing jobs in the services sector, as well as in the manufacturing sectors that use these services. A region that has thrived through openness to trade and investment in manufacturing still maintains innovation-inhibiting barriers to entry and competition in key services sectors. 'Services Unbound: Digital Technologies and Policy Reform in East Asia and Pacific' makes the case for deeper domestic reforms and greater international cooperation to unleash a virtuous cycle of increased economic opportunity and enhanced human capacity that would power development in the region.Publication Air Quality Management in Central Asia(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-02)This report aims to enhance the understanding of the priorities, needs, and solutions for improving air quality (AQ) in Central Asia (CA) through local action and regional collaboration. It focuses on key components of holistic air quality management (AQM): evidence-based analytics to identify the main sources of air pollution in CA, application of modern tools to assess the impact of cost-effective measures to improve AQ, assessment of the institutional and governance setup for AQM in CA with recommendations to strengthen it, and approaches to financing AQ improvement. Given the lack of comprehensive systematic and validated emission inventories of all PM2.5 precursor emissions, the technical assessment employs the regional emission inventory of the Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model. Input data were updated for this study based on recent energy statistics and relevant national surveys. This report addresses emissions and the regional transboundary flows of pollution between Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Subsequently, the resulting PM2.5 concentrations in ambient air throughout CA were computed with the atmospheric chemistry and transport calculations of the GAINS model. Employing the source apportionment results of the GAINS model, the analysis then examines the contributions to PM2.5 population exposure. The report also presents source apportionment analyses for important air pollution hot spots in CA: Dushanbe (Tajikistan), Bishkek (the Kyrgyz Republic), Tashkent (Uzbekistan), Samarkand (Uzbekistan), Astana, and Almaty (Kazakhstan).Publication Zambia Poverty and Equity Assessment 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-25)Zambia is simultaneously amongst the poorest and the most unequal countries in the world. In 2022, 64.3 percent of the population - about 12.6 million individuals - was living on less than US$2.15 a day. This level is not only the 6th highest in the world but it is also misaligned with the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita level. In four of the five poorer countries, GDP per capita is between one-quarter and one-half of Zambia’s GDP per capita. The remaining country is South Sudan, which is immersed in a protracted fragility and conflict situation. At the same time, consumption inequality is high, even when compared with the sub-group of highly unequal resource-rich countries. In 2022, the Gini index stood at 51.5 - significantly above the World Bank’s newly adopted high-inequality threshold of 40. This places Zambia as the country with the 4th highest inequality in the region and the 6th highest globally. Resource-rich countries with similar or higher inequality have substantially lower poverty levels.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Working Without Borders(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-24)Online gig work poses both opportunities and challenges for governments and workers. On the upside, it offers prospects for income generation, especially in developing countries, where most people work in low-productivity, low-quality, often informal jobs. The virtual and often temporary nature of gig work also provides flexibility for often neglected groups such as women, youth, migrants, and people with disabilities. These jobs could be a stepping-stone to bet¬ter-quality jobs for low-skilled workers by helping them learn critical digital skills and close the digital divide. But most gig jobs offer little to no protection for workers, with uncertain income streams and no clear career pathways. Depending on local labor regulations, many gig workers are not protected against unfair practices, abuse or injuries while working. Gig work also raises challenges for managing data security and privacy. The report examines how countries can navigate the promise and perils of online gig work. It reveals that the online gig workforce is much larger than previously assumed with an estimated 154 million to 435 million Online gig workers around the globe. For the first time ever, the report mapped and tracked regional platforms and gig workers who work in languages other than English. Key messages are: • Online gig work is expanding, accounting for up to 12% of the global labor force and is a growing source of income for millions. • Demand for online gig workers is rising faster in developing countries than in industrialized countries. • Local gig platforms play a vital role in the local labor market, but they face challenges in establishing a viable business model, and opportunities for long-term growth. • Online gig work can support inclusion by providing work opportunities for youth, women, and low-skilled workers. • Gig workers, like most other informal sector workers in developing countries, are often outside the purview of labor regulations. • The gig economy can offer opportunities locally to build digital skills, increase income-earning opportunities, and facilitate social protection coverage of informal workers.