Publication:
Global Economic Prospects, June 2016: Divergences and Risks

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (5.43 MB)
23,028 downloads
Date
2016-06-07
ISSN
Published
2016-06-07
Editor(s)
Abstract
Global growth prospects have deteriorated in 2016. Emerging market and developing economies are facing increased external headwinds, including softer growth in advanced economies. Commodity exporters are struggling with particularly challenging conditions, while commodity importers are thus far showing greater resilience. Global growth is expected to gradually accelerate in 2017-18 but risks to the outlook are increasingly more pronounced. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Focus essays of critical importance for emerging and developing economies: an analysis of the buildup of private debt in emerging and frontier markets and a quantitative study of uncertainties surrounding global growth. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that has, since its inception in 1991, examined international economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies. It has also included analytical essays on a wide range of topical macroeconomic, financial, and structural policy challenges faced by these economies. It is published on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges, while the June edition contains shorter analytical essays.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank Group. 2016. Global Economic Prospects, June 2016: Divergences and Risks. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24319 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2017
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-06) World Bank Group
    Global activity is firming broadly as expected. Manufacturing and trade are picking up, confidence is improving, and international financing conditions remain benign. Global growth is projected to strengthen in 2018-19, in line with January forecasts. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), growth is predicted to recover in 2017-19, as obstacles to growth in commodity exporters diminish amid moderately rising commodity prices, and activity in commodity importers remains robust. Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. These include increased trade protectionism; elevated economic policy uncertainty; the possibility of financial market disruptions; and, over the longer term, weaker potential growth. A policy priority for EMDEs is to rebuild monetary and fiscal space that could be drawn on were such risks to materialize. Over the longer term, structural policies that support investment and trade are critical to boost EMDE productivity and potential growth.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2018
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-06-05) World Bank Group
    Published semiannually, Global Economic Prospects includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries. Global activity is firming broadly as expected. Manufacturing and trade are picking up, confidence is improving, and international financing conditions remain benign. Global growth is projected to strengthen in 2018-19, in line with January forecasts. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), growth is predicted to recover in 2017-19, as obstacles to growth in commodity exporters diminish amid moderately rising commodity prices, and activity in commodity importers remains robust. Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. These include increased trade protectionism; elevated economic policy uncertainty; the possibility of financial market disruptions; and, over the longer term, weaker potential growth. A policy priority for EMDEs is to rebuild monetary and fiscal space that could be drawn on were such risks to materialize. Over the longer term, structural policies that support investment and trade are critical to boost EMDE productivity and potential growth.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2019
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-06-04) World Bank
    Global growth has continued to soften this year. A modest recovery in emerging market and developing economies continues to be constrained by subdued investment, which is dampening prospects and impeding progress toward achieving critical development goals. Downside risks to the outlook remain elevated, and policymakers continue to face major challenges to boost resilience and foster long-term growth. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes analytical essays on the benefits and risks of government borrowing, recent investment weakness in emerging market and developing economies, the pass-through of currency depreciations to inflation, and the evolution of growth in low-income countries. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2016
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-01-06) World Bank Group
    The January 2016 edition of Global Economic Prospects discusses current global and regional economic developments and prospects, analyzing key challenges and opportunities confronting developing countries. This volume addresses, among other topics, spillovers from large emerging markets and macroeconomic vulnerabilities during resource development. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. Semiannually (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects : Financial Markets Outlook, June 2014
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-06) Ju Kim, Eung; Stocker, Marc
    External financing conditions for developing countries have been remarkably favorable in recent months, reflecting expectations of a more drawn-out period of monetary policy accommodation in high-income countries and some narrowing of external vulnerabilities. Additional easing by the European Central Bank, combined with prospects of modest growth and stable inflation in the United States ( Goldilocks recovery ), helped pull down bond yields and volatility worldwide. These benign conditions currently provide support to capital inflows and activity across developing countries, but could at the same time increase the risk of greater and potentially more abrupt market adjustments ahead. Despite some reduction of current account deficits in several developing countries, many remain vulnerable to sudden shifts in investors sentiment and capital outflows. Following a brief period of market turmoil at the start of the year, global financing conditions have eased consider-ably from March to June. Bond spreads for developing countries (i.e. yield difference with 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds) have narrowed, bringing down average borrowing costs to their lowest level since the spring of 2013. Stock markets have also recovered rapidly from a significant sell-off in January/February, despite rising geopolitical tensions and evidence of disappointing activity in the first quarter of the year. As presented in the June 2014 edition of Global Economic Prospects, a more favorable global environment is reflected in upward revisions to capital inflow forecasts for developing countries, now projected to remain broad-ly stable as a percentage of GDP in 2014 and 2015, at around 5.6 percent, before declining again in 2016, to 5.1 percent. While baseline forecasts assume an orderly in-crease in long-term interest rates in high-income countries, the risk of more abrupt adjustments from current low levels has recently increased. Escalating geopolitical tensions or financial stress in some developing countries could also potentially trigger a sudden re-pricing of risk. Despite the recent narrowing of current account deficits in some developing countries, many remain vulnerable to a sharp increase in borrowing costs and/or significant currency depreciations, which could put additional strain on corporate and bank balance sheets.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06) World Bank
    Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2018
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-01-09) World Bank Group
    The global economy is in a broad-based cyclical recovery. Investment, manufacturing and trade are on the rebound. Financing conditions are benign, monetary policies are generally accommodative, and the worst impacts of the recent commodity price collapse have begun to dissipate. However, the global economic outlook remains clouded by a number of risks. These include the possibility of financial market disruptions, rising protectionist sentiment, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Of particular concern is evidence of subdued productivity and slowing potential growth. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the causes of the broad-based slowing of potential growth and suggests remedies. The report also contains Special Focus sections on the impact of the 2014-2016 oil price collapse and the relationship between education demographics and global inequality. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2019
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-01-08) World Bank
    Global economic prospects have darkened. Financing conditions have tightened, industrial production has moderated, and trade tensions remain elevated. The recovery in emerging market and developing economies has stalled, and some countries have experienced significant financial stress. Downside risks have increased, including the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and escalating trade disputes. It is thus critical to rebuild policy buffers while fostering potential growth by boosting human capital, promoting trade integration, and addressing informality. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the challenges posed by informality and associated policy options. The report also contains pieces on the remarkable decline in inflation in emerging market and developing economies over the past decades, rising debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries, and the implications of large spikes in food prices for poverty. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-01-10) World Bank
    Global growth is projected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Further adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of the reliance on external trade and financing, limited economic diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Against this backdrop, it is critical that EMDE policy makers ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups, that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that financial systems continue to be resilient. Urgent global and national efforts are also needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs, and to support a major increase in EMDE investment.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2017
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-06) World Bank Group
    Global activity is firming broadly as expected. Manufacturing and trade are picking up, confidence is improving, and international financing conditions remain benign. Global growth is projected to strengthen in 2018-19, in line with January forecasts. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), growth is predicted to recover in 2017-19, as obstacles to growth in commodity exporters diminish amid moderately rising commodity prices, and activity in commodity importers remains robust. Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. These include increased trade protectionism; elevated economic policy uncertainty; the possibility of financial market disruptions; and, over the longer term, weaker potential growth. A policy priority for EMDEs is to rebuild monetary and fiscal space that could be drawn on were such risks to materialize. Over the longer term, structural policies that support investment and trade are critical to boost EMDE productivity and potential growth.